6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件 1： 12 月 10 日早 9 点半国家统计局公布 11 月中国物价数据。 评论 1： 中国 11 月 CPI 同比为 0.7%，预期为 0.7%，前值 10 月为 0.2%；核心 CPI 同比为 1.2%，， 前值为 1.2%。11 月 CPI 环比为-0.1%，前值为 0.2%，去年同期是-0.6%，可见 11 月 CPI 同比的回升主要受基数的影响；核心 CPI 环比同样为-0.1%，前值为 0.2%。 由于 CPI 的回升，核心 CPI 与 CPI 之间同比差距，由上月 1%缩小至 0.5%。 11 月食品环比为 0.5%，前值为 0.3%，而去年同期是-2.7%。其中，鲜菜环比上涨 7.2%，是影响 CPI 同比回升的关键因素；而猪肉下跌 2.2%，蛋类和水产品环比均 下跌 1.8%，鲜果下跌 0.3%。 11 月非食品环比为-0.2%，前值为 0.2%。其中，其它用品和服务环比上涨 1.2%， 衣着上涨 0.7%，医疗保健环比上涨 0.1%；而交通通讯环比下跌 ...

Macro Economic Group - SpaceX is advancing its IPO plan, aiming to raise over $30 billion with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, potentially listing in mid-2026. This could positively impact the domestic commercial aerospace sector in China, as the valuation surge in the U.S. market often influences local industries and capital markets [3]. Advanced Manufacturing Group - GCL-Poly Energy announced the establishment of a limited partnership with its subsidiaries and China Cinda Asset Management to acquire a 42.5% stake in Xinyuan. The company raised about $700 million from a Middle Eastern sovereign fund to facilitate structural adjustments in polysilicon capacity. This partnership enhances the feasibility of industry consolidation and asset disposal, with early signs of supply-demand improvement indicated by the stabilization of polysilicon prices [7]. Consumer Group - Roborock Technology performed exceptionally during Black Friday, with total sales of 390,000 robotic vacuum cleaners in Europe, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and 210,000 units in North America, up 58%. The company also saw significant growth in floor cleaning machines, with year-on-year increases of 361% in Europe and 257% in North America, indicating strong multi-category synergy and potential profit growth [9]. - Data from Ctrip shows a 70% year-on-year increase in domestic ski and ice scenery ticket bookings from November to February, with overseas bookings rising by 50%. Notably, ski ticket bookings in China surged nearly 120% year-on-year since November, reflecting a growing demand for immersive experiences. Additionally, exports of ice and snow products from Yiwu, Zhejiang, have seen a significant increase, with some manufacturers' orders extending to March next year [9].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The National Financial Supervision Administration has lowered the risk factors for insurance companies related to certain business operations, specifically reducing the risk factor for stocks held over three years in the CSI 300 Index from 0.3 to 0.27 and for stocks in the STAR Market from 0.4 to 0.36, indicating a positive outlook for investments in the CSI 300, dividend stocks, and the brokerage industry [3] - The sales of excavators in China reached 20,027 units in November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.11%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%). For the first 11 months of 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, up 16.7%, indicating strong growth in both domestic and export markets [4] - The cobalt market is facing a significant supply shortage due to export licensing delays in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produces 75.86% of the world's cobalt. A reduction in production quotas has led to a projected shortfall of 30,000 tons, or about 10% of total demand, potentially impacting supply dynamics in 2026 [7] Group 2: Market Trends - The gaming industry is seeing a strong growth trajectory with the "search and destroy" genre becoming a key growth line in 2025. Tencent's "Peace Elite" and other titles have established a solid user base, with "Delta Action" achieving over 30 million daily active users, indicating a robust market for gaming products [9] - Domestic market risk appetite has increased, with the CSI 300 index showing gains. The favorable policy adjustments for insurance companies and the introduction of a new performance evaluation mechanism for fund managers are expected to enhance long-term investment behaviors [12] - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a systematic development phase, with the National Space Administration's action plan for 2025-2027 expected to accelerate commercialization across the entire supply chain, including satellites and launch services [12]

Group 1: Industry Overview - AMD has received permission to export certain MI 308 chips to China, indicating a potential easing of AI chip export restrictions by the U.S. government, which may benefit domestic AI applications and reduce concerns over an investment bubble in AI [3] - The World Gold Council (WGC) forecasts a 15% to 30% increase in gold prices by 2026, driven by declining U.S. Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks, and strong demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting a favorable outlook for the precious metals sector [3] Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - In November 2025, 24,000 new energy heavy trucks were added, marking a 40% month-over-month increase and a 176% year-over-year increase, setting a new monthly sales record. Cumulatively, 161,000 units were sold from January to November, reflecting a 189% year-over-year growth, indicating sustained high growth rather than a temporary spike [6] - Key regions such as Shanghai and Shanxi are leading in new energy heavy truck sales, with Shanghai representing port and urban distribution scenarios, while Shanxi, Hebei, and Sichuan are significant for resource transportation. The growth is expected to expand as infrastructure and supportive policies develop [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector - Recent trials by brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming in various cities for breakfast dairy products at a price point of 5 yuan indicate a strategic entry into the breakfast market, which is valued at approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, with the external breakfast segment growing at 8-10% annually [8] - The breakfast market presents a significant opportunity, particularly for chain tea and coffee brands leveraging existing store networks and supply chains to capture market share in this new segment, potentially driving same-store sales growth [8]

Macro Economic Group - The US November Services PMI is reported at 52.4%, slightly below the expected 52% and down from October's 52.6%. New orders decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 52.9%, while the price index fell by 4.6 percentage points to 65.4%. The employment index is at 48.9%, indicating contraction for the sixth consecutive month [3][4] - The ADP employment data for November shows a decrease of 31,000 jobs, contrary to the expected increase of 5,000 jobs. The previous month's data was revised from an increase of 42,000 to 47,000. This report is significant as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - LME copper reached a historical high of $11,500 per ton, with a daily increase of over 3.2%. LME three-month tin rose by 3.45% to $40,385 per ton. The prices of rare earths have rebounded over 5% in the past month, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising to the range of 595,000-598,000 yuan per ton. The price of tungsten APT has also surpassed 510,000 yuan per ton, with a more than 100% increase in the second half of the year [7] - The overall trend indicates a sustained increase in non-ferrous metal prices, driven by a long-term weakening of the dollar and the competitive pricing of Chinese industrial products in global markets, particularly in developing countries [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Recent research indicates a significant supply-demand mismatch for core solvents EC and additive VC, leading to price elasticity. The market is dominated by two companies, which control about 80% of the EC market share, and both have no plans for capacity expansion. The price of EC has risen from 4,300 yuan per ton to 6,200 yuan per ton [10] - The demand for VC has surged, pushing its price above 230,000 yuan per ton, which further constricts the supply of battery-grade EC, exacerbating the shortage. The lack of new capacity and the supply squeeze suggest that EC prices are likely to continue rising [10] Consumer Group - In the duty-free sector, sales growth in Hainan's offshore duty-free market reached double digits in October and November. New duty-free stores have opened in key cities like Xi'an and Changsha, supported by policies that expand eligible consumer groups and product categories [12] - High-end consumption is recovering, with notable performance from leading retailers like Hangzhou Tower and Henglong, which have seen significant revenue growth and improved profitability. This trend is reflected in the high demand for luxury goods and the robust performance of Macau's gaming sector [12]

Group 1: Energy Sector - Jerry Holdings announced a new gas turbine generator sales contract exceeding $100 million with a significant North American client, following a previous $100 million order for data center generators [3] - Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries forecast that global gas turbine demand will exceed 70 GW by 2025, with growth primarily in the U.S. due to its natural gas advantages [3] - The report anticipates an increase in the prosperity of the gas turbine and its upstream industries, including high-temperature alloys and blades, as they address electricity supply issues driven by AI-induced demand [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) has raised its estimate for the global semiconductor market size in 2025 by approximately $45 billion to $772 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] - WSTS further predicts that the semiconductor market will reach $975 billion in 2026, achieving over 25% year-on-year growth, approaching the $1 trillion mark [3] - The report expresses optimism regarding the sustained high prosperity of the global semiconductor industry chain, including upstream equipment and materials [3] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - Star Materials has increased the price of wet-process separators by 30%, with leading companies like Enjie, Xingyuan, and Jinli operating at full capacity [6] - The average price increase for downstream customers is between 0.1 to 0.2 yuan per square meter, with the industry’s profit in Q3 2025 being below 0.05 yuan per square meter [6] - The report suggests that the recent surge in energy storage demand has positively impacted the separator industry, indicating a potential rise in its prosperity [6] Group 4: Energy Storage - Fluence, a U.S. energy storage company, reported $1.4 billion in new orders for Q4, bringing its total backlog to $5.3 billion, with delivery timelines extending to two years [7] - The CEO highlighted that data center projects are a significant growth area, with demand driven by flexible grid connections, backup power, and power quality [7] - The report notes that the Australian market is a major contributor to Fluence's orders, accounting for nearly half of Q4's new contracts, indicating a strong demand for energy storage solutions [7] Group 5: Consumer Sector - In the beauty sector, Juzhi Biotechnology's core brand, Kefu Mei, underperformed during the Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - The company received approval for a new medical device and plans to launch at least six new products under its core brands in 2026, suggesting potential future growth [9] - In the gaming sector, client games saw a 20% year-on-year increase in Q3, driven by popular titles and a rich product pool for the upcoming year, indicating a positive outlook for cultural output and cross-platform gaming products [9]

Macro Economic Group - The US manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 48.2%, below the expected 49% and the previous month's 48.7%, indicating a "strong supply and weak demand" scenario [4] - The output index for November is at 51.4%, a recovery of 3.2 percentage points from October, returning to the expansion zone [4] - New orders index for November is at 47.4%, down 2 percentage points from the previous month, while new export orders are at 46.2%, indicating contraction [4] - The employment index is at 44%, down 2 percentage points from last month, reflecting a decline in employment [4] - The price index is at 58.5%, showing upward pressure on prices despite a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - Doubao launched the Doubao Mobile Assistant, demonstrating AI Agent applications with Nubia smartphones, which significantly ease users' daily tasks [7] - The collaboration smartphone priced at 3499 yuan quickly sold out, indicating strong market interest despite some performance issues in complex tasks [7] - The emergence of this application model alleviates investor concerns about an AI investment bubble, suggesting a positive outlook for the AI sector [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Research indicates that the revenue models and demand trends for independent energy storage stations vary across eight provinces, with investment returns generally exceeding 8%, and some reaching 10%-15% [10] - The investment logic in the energy storage sector is shifting from relying on subsidies to identifying system bottlenecks [10] - The high prosperity of the energy storage industry is expected to first manifest in rapid installation growth, followed by intense competition in the equipment sector [10] Consumer Group - Macau's GGR recovery rate for November reached 92.2%, the highest in 2023, indicating strong high-end demand and reinforcing growth logic in the sector [12] - The performance of the luxury goods sector is expected to improve, supported by positive trends in international tourism and high hotel occupancy rates [12] - The e-commerce sector saw a significant increase, with Ruoyuchen's self-owned brand sales surging 35 times year-on-year, validating the success of its brand incubation strategy [13]

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 1 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 事件： 11 月非制造业 PMI 指数为 49.5%，较上月回落 0.6 个百分点，是 2023 年以来首次 回落至收缩区间。其中，服务业为 49.5%，较上月回落 0.7 个百分点；而建筑业 为 49.6%，较上月回升 0.5 个百分点，连续 4 个月处于 50%以下的收缩区间。11 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.7%，较 10 月回落 0.3 百分点，也是 2023 年以来首次 回落至收缩区间。 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 4 页 晨会纪要 11 月 30 日 9 点半国家统计局公布 11 月 PMI 数据。 评论： 11月中国制造业PMI为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点。其中，大型企业为49.3%， 较上月回落 0.6 个百分点；中型企业为 48.9%，较上月回升 0.2 个百分点；小型 企业为 ...

Macro Economic Overview - In the first ten months of the year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, although it fell by 1.3 percentage points compared to the first nine months, marking the second-highest point in a year [5] - The manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year growth of 7.7% in the first ten months, down 2.2 percentage points from the first nine months [5] - In October, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the 21.6% growth in September, with manufacturing profits declining by 10.6% [5] Industry Performance - The profit growth rates varied across industries, with upstream sectors showing divergence, downstream sectors performing poorly, and midstream sectors faring better [6] - Industries with higher year-on-year growth rates in the first ten months included non-ferrous metals, transportation equipment manufacturing, and electronic equipment manufacturing, while coal, steel, and textile industries lagged behind [6] - Specific profit growth rates for various industries in October compared to September and the first ten months are detailed in the report [7] Consumer and Economic Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to increase residents' income and consumption rates, indicating a shift in policy focus towards enhancing consumer spending rather than fixed asset investment [9] - Recent policy changes, such as extending maternity leave and increasing marriage leave, are expected to boost consumer spending, presenting investment opportunities in consumer-related sectors in the coming years [9] Technological Developments - A meeting on the construction of a space data center revealed plans to build a large-scale data center system in low Earth orbit, with significant technological advancements expected between 2025 and 2035 [10] - The commercial space sector is anticipated to gain attention as applications continue to expand, particularly in the context of AI and energy shortages [10] Company-Specific Developments - Jerry Holdings recently signed a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets for data centers in North America, valued at over 100 million USD, indicating strong demand for gas turbines as a solution to power shortages [11] - The company has established a solid technical foundation in gas turbines and has collaborated with Siemens, suggesting a positive outlook for the gas turbine supply chain [11]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The A-share communication equipment industry index saw a significant increase, with a peak rise of over 8%, primarily driven by the surge in stock prices of optical module companies like Zhongji Xuchuang. This increase is attributed to reports of Google placing a large number of urgent orders for optical modules in the supply chain, particularly focusing on 800G/1.6T high-speed optical modules [2] - Dell's Q3 FY2026 earnings call indicated a notable acceleration in AI growth, with a record backlog of $18.4 billion and a continuous increase in project reserves over the next five quarters, suggesting robust demand growth in the industry [2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's December meeting are expected to create a favorable market environment, with an 85% probability of interest rate cuts, which could support a sustained rebound in the A-share market [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - Sanya City launched the sixth phase of duty-free consumption vouchers on November 19, 2025, which will run until December 31, 2025. The vouchers offer discounts ranging from "6000 minus 300" to "50000 minus 4000," aimed at stimulating consumer spending among eligible travelers and residents [6] - Historical data indicates that duty-free consumption vouchers have a significant leverage effect, often leading to multiple times increase in consumption and a notable rise in average transaction value. The vouchers can be combined with in-store promotions, further enhancing consumer spending potential [6] - The issuance of consumption vouchers and the resulting increase in foot traffic are expected to strengthen the price rebound logic post-price hikes, making local retail and service enterprises in Hainan well-positioned to benefit from this trend [6]