更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 03 July 2024 China: Back to trend-growth in 2H 2024 mid-year outlook • China’s economic activity started strong in 1Q but softened in 2Q. The Emerging Markets Asia, Economic volatility was driven by LNY seasonality and changes in policy dynamics. and Policy Research • Policy adjustment since the April Politburo meeting can help avoid a Haibin Zhu collapse in economic activity in 2Q as observed one year ago. We expect (852) 2800-7039 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Global FX Strategy July 3, 2024 FX Mid-Year Outlook Presentation Ten questions (and answers) on currencies in 2H24 Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan AC (44-20) 7134-2924 meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Arindam Sandilya AC (65) 6882-7759 arindam.sandilya@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. All charts are sourced from J.P. Morgan unless otherwise sp ...

木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 Asia Pacific Economic Research 07 July 2024 China: FX reserves largely in line with expectation A glance at BoP and customs' trade balance difference China's June FX reserves fell US$9.7bn to $3,222.4bn, largely in line with our exneetation of $3.025.8bn. It follows the US$31.2bn rise in May. For 1H as a whole, FX reserves fell US$15.6bn. Same as May, gold reserves stayed unchanged, after solid increases in the prior 18 consecutive months. ● Our baseline forecast looks for 0.2%m/m sa uptick ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 J P M O R G A N Japan FX Strategy 03 July 2024 FX Strategy The outlook for G10 funders • Last week we came out of the mid-year process with a view to be tactically Japan Markets Research short funders (JPY and CHF, link), but more for idiosyncratic bottom-up Junya Tanase AC reasons rather than a broad top-down view. (81-3) 6736-1270 • Some similarities for CHF and JPY come, for instance, through balance of junya.tanase@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. payments, w ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 June 2024 2024 Midyear Outlook Approaching the economy’s pivot point ...

本次电话会议仅服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 商业证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性商业证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容 各位投资者大家晚上好我是经济宏观段超欢迎大家来参加我们今天晚上的电话会议今天也是我们2024年以来的第101期电话会议了在每个工作日晚上我会为大家带来宏观经济的分享在今天晚上将会由我的同事谢旭勇为大家带来如何看待当前经济的形势与后续的一个主线接下来时间就交给志勇有请 好的 感谢端博的介绍 尊敬的各位投资者 大家晚上好 我是新政宏光研究员谢志勇那今天就来为大家交流一下近期关于经济的一个形式观点以及对未来经济形势的一些展望 那首先我们可以整体来看一下上半年以及6月份的一个经济数据表现具体来说的话72季度的一个实际均同比是增长了4.7较市场预期的5.1是有一个比较明显的这样的一个 ...

北纽洲国家在1994年我们去研究的时候跟北纽西法尼亚大学一块的研究所跟北纽西法尼亚大学一块建的结果他们在那搞了一个叫进口促进中心就在北纽洲的港口上很大的一个港口我说我们这个国家都在想办法出口扩大内需通过出口拉动内需您怎么搞扩大进口我当然是不理解的 现在我们才明白了中国搞进博会啊什么还在搞这个东西那同时呢日美贸易还在打那日美贸易打了之后日美两边达成了一个协议就这样日本的企业说我们搞出口配额电子产品跟汽车出口配额但是同时呢美国放开你的市场允许我的企业到你美国去投资就像现在日本丰田啊什么都在美国投资 他就这么一个战略配合有什么好处呢当时我们就在看了好多文献这是日本人美国人都在写的一些文献就是出口配合有什么好处有什么坏处经济学怎么分析啊叫小费胜率生产胜率是吧他们研究经济学的这个价格波动以后它带来消费者胜率带来生产者胜率那价格上升了以后消费者胜率肯定下降是企业的胜率多啊成交上涨价高第二我把配合我往往在国内拍卖 哪个企业的利润高你有钱你就再买这个配额你哪个配额你就出口其他其实既然不能出口了那么当时很多人先研究下来这个结果这个政策下来对日本的企业是有好处的对美国的消费者是没有好处的但是对日本的消费者是有好处的对日本的消费者 ...

晚上好那么这里是上海证券总量团队每周的观点汇报那么今天晚上呢还是由我们几位的首席或组长给大家汇报各自的观点那我们看到最近的市场还是有了一些小小的反弹那么从整个二月份的反弹包括七月份的一个行业的表现来看的话其实还是跟 大家所认知的对于中国经济的一个未来的一个复苏的方向还是比较的一致的那么从大盘的一个指数点位上来看的话上证中指包括互联三百互联三百大概在3500左右在震荡但前段时间跌破了3500然后又开始出现了一个反弹 那么其实还是从这里也能看得出来市场对于相对一个底部的认知还是比较的一致的那么今天晚上我们几位首席也就各自的一个最近的市场发展给出一些观点和分析那么首先我们有请我们的股收首席何胜总来发言有请何胜总 好 谢谢丁总各位投资者大家晚上好我先跟大家分享一下赛事的一些观点过去一周在线量是一个上涨的一个态势像十年国债起步涨了0.1%这个现场收率十年国债也是下了1.5个BP下到了2.26这样一个程度从整个的一个收率曲线的角度来看就是是有涨有跌像一年级一类的短期线品种包括这个五年级是提升的但七年级以上了 这种长时间平涨期收率是下降的整个来看曲线是更为平坦的一个态势那对于信用债人像城投债的成交活跃是提升的金融债的成交活 ...

大家好欢迎参加豪斯产业经济第二讲中国出海需要反经验主义目前所有参会者已经处于静音状态下面开始播报名字声明 本次会议仅面向华福证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议根据监管规定会议不得交流敏感内幕信息未经华福证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形等我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解 各位投资者大家晚上好我是花河李浩今天跟大家讲一下出海的反变主义因为我觉得市场可能对出海大家有了很多研究包括去看过很多国家的历史经验但是我觉得 我觉得经验是需要去研究包括去了解但是我觉得可能更重要的是需要了解特别是在你有特殊的资源顶部的时候或者你跟因为每个国家资源顶部不太一样包括日本韩国美国本身他在做全球化包括他所经历的他们的时间阶段他当时外部的环境是吧 这个有很大差异但是我觉得从中国的目前情况来看的话我觉得确实是有很多跟历史上这些国家不太一样的地方包括其实我们可以看到就是在日本韩国就我理解可能我也不一定理解对但是我的理解其实我觉得这些国家在做全球化的过程中它其实有一些特征第一呢 全球化都一般是在工业化发展到后期的时候开始形成的因 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Japanese asset management industry has experienced multiple phases over the past 30 years, with significant growth in the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a long-term decline after the economic bubble burst in 1989 [21] - From 1991 to 2023, Japan's average economic growth rate has been less than 1%, with GDP fluctuating between $30,000 and $50,000 [21] - The total scale of ETFs in Japan has reached approximately 80 trillion yen, surpassing active equity products, becoming the largest product type [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The public fund market in Japan can be divided into stock funds and bond funds, with stock funds accounting for about 85% to 90% of the total [24] - High dividend strategies have provided good allocation value, with high dividend indices outperforming the Nikkei index by approximately 120% from 1991 to 2023 [25] - The preference for overseas asset allocation products has increased due to the decline in domestic real estate and stock markets [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Japanese investors have shown a strong preference for overseas assets, high dividend assets, and regular dividend products during economic downturns [25] - The sales channels for public funds have evolved significantly, with banks and insurance companies gaining market share from securities companies since 2000 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Japanese asset management companies have adopted strategies such as global expansion, optimizing product structures, and enhancing global cooperation to attract overseas funds and improve asset allocation capabilities [12] - The introduction of pension plans and tax incentives has driven significant inflows into public funds, with 50%-60% of pension funds allocated to public funds [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management has noted that the aging population in Japan has led to a preference for stable income products, which has influenced product offerings [28] - The government has implemented policies to support the asset management industry, including relaxing regulations and expanding sales channels [24] Other Important Information - The fee structure for public funds in Japan is similar to that in China, with management fees for actively managed equity funds around 1% to 1.2% and index funds around 0.3% to 0.5% [11] - The introduction of personal savings accounts has attracted significant funds into public funds, promoting a shift from bank deposits and insurance [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the common patterns or conclusions that can be drawn from comparing major global markets? - It is difficult to draw universal conclusions due to significant differences in capital environments and regulatory systems across markets [2] Question: How has the Japanese asset management industry developed during the past 30 years of recession? - The industry has gone through various stages, with a notable decline after the economic bubble burst in 1989, leading to a long-term stagnation until recent recovery [21] Question: What are the characteristics of Japanese residents' investment preferences? - Japanese investors have shown a preference for real estate and stable income products, particularly in the context of an aging population [25]