尊敬的各位来宾朋友们大家下午好欢迎您参加Window Talk理财大咖谈活动我是本次的主持人Coco2022年以来中国经济呈现量稳架缩的阶段性特征实际增速整体处于合一期间在经济转型结构调整及海外高利率环境下经济周期不同步的影响延续2024年时间过半想望下半年有哪些值得关注的投资线索 在资产价格之间的裂口趋于须脸的背景下民生理财在Beta层面和Alpha层面有何投资展望?一起来看本期WinTalk理财大咖谈WinTalk理财大咖谈专栏感谢您的参与这个夏天让我们相约周三下午更多精彩值得您的期待 万德基金WinTok致力于搭建起优秀投资机构和客户之间的桥梁为您展示更专业的投资观点和更独特的投资理念加强市场资讯及后事观点的及时分享快速把握投资时机和方向理财数据看万德Win的全面收入了全市场的银行理财数据构建了标准化的理财产品评价体系并每季度发布银行理财大数据榜单以在业内树立了显著的品牌影响力 欢迎您进入万德中端全面了解理财产品相关数据为您的投资决策提供有力的支持此次活动也感谢万德基金与万德3C会议的大力支持万德基金是万德打造的高效便捷的一站式基金投研交易管理服务平台每周万德基金会在公众号输出原创文章用图表解读资管市场 ...

本次电话会议仅服于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权专载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 深夜证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性深夜证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容尊敬的各位投资朋友大家晚上好我是新闻宏观段超 欢迎大家来参加我们今天晚上的电话会议那么今天上午呢我们也召开了信用证券2024年的中期策略会然后我们在上午的大会场上也汇报了对于今年的宏观中期策略的一个看法以及呢有圆桌的这样一个论坛 那么今天晚上这个时间呢我也想就是借这样一个时机来展开一下汇报一下就是我们对于今年下半年整个经济领域的想法也是我们今年以来第92期的每个工作日晚上的宏观超话电话会议我们的题目呢叫做经济重构进展花开我想分两次电话会议的内容跟大家进行一个汇报今天呢首先是这个问题的前半部分上 事实上在过去的半年多我们会看到大家对于经济整体的感受可能是有一定的回落的同时有一个比 ...

公告全知道财税信息化政务人工智能据!公司打造财税垂直领域人工智能大语言模型 ...

我们先听一下声音 大家稍等一下 我刚刚试了一下声音和画面都还比较好大家在直播的过程当中如果有任何声音或者画面的问题就随时和我们进行反馈今天是我们一场日常的直播也就是维持跟大家一个见面的频率我们目前的直播时间是定在每周二的上午 10点半到11点钟这个时间之所以固定这个时间也是希望能够跟大家维持一个正常的见面的这样一个窗口然后大家也会比较清楚什么时间在什么地方可以找到我们如果大家对我们 有任何的建议或者说有任何的疑问不管是对于我们直播的建议还是说对于基因经理的建议然后你也可以来直播间提出来或者关于市场的一些问题比如说你想听到什么方向的一些市场内容想听到什么分析什么讲解 或者对于你个人的投资方面产品方面有一些什么问题那大家都是可以在直播间提出来的我们的直播间其实就是一个公司和所有投资人去进行交流的这样子一个窗口那大家想要找到我们的就是每周二的上午每周二上午10点半到11点钟这个时间我们是在天天进行半个小时的直播 大家有任何问题都可以在弹幕里面打出来屏幕右边的直播礼包大家也可以领取一下今天还是会跟大家聊一聊股市和债市的一些情况跟大家分享一些市场观点 那么同时也跟大家简单的介绍一下嘴上脚购物袋的产品大家有什么需求呢就是 ...

本次电话会议仅服务于新业证券客户会议音频及文字记录的内容版权为新业证券所有内容必须经新业证券审核后方可留存未经允许和授权转载转发此次会议内容均属侵权新业证券将保留追究其法律责任的权利电话会议所有参会人员不得泄露内幕信息以及未公开重要信息涉及外部嘉宾发言的 深夜证券不保障其发言内容的准确性与完整性深夜证券不承担外部嘉宾发言内容所引起的任何损失及责任不承担因转载转发引起的任何损失及责任市场有风险投资需谨慎提醒投资者注意投资风险审慎参考会议内容尊敬的各位投资朋友大家晚上好我是新闻宏观段超 欢迎大家来参加我们今天晚上的电话会议那么今天上午呢我们也召开了信用证券2024年的中期策略会然后我们在上午的大会场上也汇报了对于今年的宏观中期策略的一个看法以及呢有圆桌的这样一个论坛 那么今天晚上这个时间呢我也想就是借这样一个时机来展开一下汇报一下就是我们对于今年下半年整个经济领域的想法也是我们今年以来第92期的每个工作日晚上的宏观超话电话会议我们的题目呢叫做经济重构进展花开我想分两次电话会议的内容跟大家进行一个汇报今天呢首先是这个问题的前半部分上 事实上在过去的半年多我们会看到大家对于经济整体的感受可能是有一定的回落的同时有一个 ...

高盛：美国分析师2024年大选更多的不确定性 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Quick Thoughts: Preparing for policy pivots After more than two years of higher inflation and interest rates, global markets are confronting a new set of fixed income opportunities and risks as central banks prepare to cut rates and elections worldwide reshape political leadership. And Franklin Templeton Institute Strategist Christy Tan recently published research focusing on the need to reconsider portfolio strategies with greater awareness of credit fundamentals and geopolitic ...

The global outlook summary highlights the top-level findings of Vanguard's full economic and market outlook, to be distributed in mid-December. The global economy has proven more resilient than we expected in 2023. This is partly because monetary policy has not been as restrictive as initially thought. Fundamental changes to the global economy have pushed up the neutral rate of interest – the rate at which policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Various other factors have blunted the normal chann ...

否 是 (66) 成本仍是影响供应链战略的关键因素，而本地化成本带来的影响却往往被忽 视。虽然本地化制造在欧洲和美国有所增多，但有相当一部分企业正在回归 以前的老路。 赛默飞世尔科技公司全球商业服务部高级副总裁 Konrad Bauer 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 8 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 过去 未来 2.2 端到端运营从"实施"数字化向"实现"数字化转变： 近三分之二（64%）的受访企业认为，人工智能是 优化供应链的关键，具体表现为可以降低成本、提 高韧性。然而，仅1%的受访企业表示，已经通过 部分引入机器人自动化技术或全面部署人工智能， 完全实现工作流程自动化（图1）。这表明，应用 广泛且错综复杂的旧系统以及变革面临的文化冲突 仍是企业部署人工智能的主要障碍。近一半的"领 先"制造企业声称利用先进规划系统（APS）进行 需求预测，同时约三分之一的"领先"制造企业已 引入人工智能，或单独使用或与先进规划系统结合 使用（图3）。 图 3 企业使用何种核心技术进行需求预测？ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected exports and the impact of policy measures, including additional support for the real estate sector and increased fiscal spending [70] - The nominal income growth for residents in the first quarter was only 6.8%, below the pre-pandemic average of 8.0% [13] - The reported non-performing loan (NPL) balance for commercial banks increased by 8.1% year-on-year, reaching 3.2 trillion RMB, with an NPL ratio of 1.6%, remaining stable compared to 2022 [35] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with new home sales down 47.2% from the peak in July 2021, and new housing starts declining by 24.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024 [21] - The automotive sector is experiencing a structural shift towards electric vehicles, with electric vehicle sales growing by 38.2% year-on-year, while internal combustion engine vehicle sales stagnated with a growth of only 0.1% [58] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The overall fiscal revenue in China decreased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, primarily due to a decline in domestic value-added tax reflecting weak domestic demand [62] - The import volume in the first quarter of 2024 increased by an average of 3.6% year-on-year, supported by robust industrial activity and improved exports [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The government has implemented measures to stabilize the real estate market, including easing purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios, but these have not yet effectively revived the sector [46] - Structural approaches are needed to manage the decline in the real estate sector and restore consumer confidence, emphasizing the urgency of implementing supply-side measures [46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management highlighted that while external demand has supported short-term economic growth, the Chinese economy may still be affected by global growth slowdowns and tightening financial conditions [45] - The management noted that the aging population and high debt levels are expected to drag down domestic GDP growth in the medium term, with GDP growth forecasted to slow to an average of 4.1% in 2025-2026 [39] Other Important Information - The overall producer price index (PPI) continued to face deflationary pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6% in the first four months of 2024, reflecting supply-demand imbalances in certain industries [55] - The fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP was 1.4% at the end of April, indicating potential risks of budget execution [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for GDP growth in 2024? - The GDP growth for 2024 is expected to be 4.8%, up from previous forecasts due to stronger exports and supportive policy measures [70] Question: How is the real estate sector performing? - The real estate sector is struggling, with new home sales down 47.2% from the peak in July 2021, and new housing starts declining significantly [21] Question: What measures are being taken to support the economy? - The government has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, including easing restrictions and providing liquidity support, but these have yet to yield significant results [46]