高盛：美国分析师2024年大选更多的不确定性 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Quick Thoughts: Preparing for policy pivots After more than two years of higher inflation and interest rates, global markets are confronting a new set of fixed income opportunities and risks as central banks prepare to cut rates and elections worldwide reshape political leadership. And Franklin Templeton Institute Strategist Christy Tan recently published research focusing on the need to reconsider portfolio strategies with greater awareness of credit fundamentals and geopolitic ...

The global outlook summary highlights the top-level findings of Vanguard's full economic and market outlook, to be distributed in mid-December. The global economy has proven more resilient than we expected in 2023. This is partly because monetary policy has not been as restrictive as initially thought. Fundamental changes to the global economy have pushed up the neutral rate of interest – the rate at which policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Various other factors have blunted the normal chann ...

否 是 (66) 成本仍是影响供应链战略的关键因素，而本地化成本带来的影响却往往被忽 视。虽然本地化制造在欧洲和美国有所增多，但有相当一部分企业正在回归 以前的老路。 赛默飞世尔科技公司全球商业服务部高级副总裁 Konrad Bauer 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 8 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 过去 未来 2.2 端到端运营从"实施"数字化向"实现"数字化转变： 近三分之二（64%）的受访企业认为，人工智能是 优化供应链的关键，具体表现为可以降低成本、提 高韧性。然而，仅1%的受访企业表示，已经通过 部分引入机器人自动化技术或全面部署人工智能， 完全实现工作流程自动化（图1）。这表明，应用 广泛且错综复杂的旧系统以及变革面临的文化冲突 仍是企业部署人工智能的主要障碍。近一半的"领 先"制造企业声称利用先进规划系统（APS）进行 需求预测，同时约三分之一的"领先"制造企业已 引入人工智能，或单独使用或与先进规划系统结合 使用（图3）。 图 3 企业使用何种核心技术进行需求预测？ | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - US manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.2, below the previous value and expectations, indicating a continued downward trend in economic fundamentals amid slower-than-expected inflation cooling [5] - Global manufacturing PMI for May rose to 50.9, showing a divergence in global manufacturing performance, with China declining, emerging markets expanding, Europe bottoming out, Germany improving, the US declining, Japan and South Korea recovering, and India performing well [5] - US CPI for April showed core CPI growth at 0.3% month-on-month, the lowest in three years, easing concerns about a "no landing" scenario and secondary inflation risks [25] - US non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with education and health services, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and government sectors being the main contributors [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Exports to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America performed better in May, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, exceeding the expected 6.4% [10] - Exports of household appliances, consumer electronics, and semiconductor-related products performed relatively well, with the contribution of electronics and semiconductors to exports rising from 0.77% to 1.12% [10] - The export growth rate is expected to fluctuate more in Q3, with a possible negative growth in Q3 and a low single-digit positive growth for the full year [10] Market Data and Key Metrics - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit facility rate by 25bps to 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75% respectively, in line with market expectations [7] - The ECB maintained its forecast of two more rate cuts within the year, with no rate cut expected in July [7] - The US dollar index is expected to remain strong during the election year, with a unified government potentially benefiting the dollar index more than a divided government [31] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focusing on export opportunities to Europe, particularly in light industry, electrical equipment, household appliances, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and general machinery [15][22] - The company is monitoring the rightward shift in the European Parliament elections, which may lead to a downward revision of export expectations for "new three" products (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells) [13] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of the European economy, with potential valuation repair in European stocks as the economy stabilizes [22] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Prospects - The company expects the US inflation trend to remain sticky, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates only once or not at all within the year [25] - The company anticipates that the US labor market will continue to cool slowly, with the Federal Reserve prioritizing inflation control and unlikely to cut rates within the year [28] - The company predicts that long-term US Treasury yields will fluctuate around 4%, with real interest rates unlikely to decline significantly [34][40] Other Important Information - The company highlights the potential for Bitcoin to outperform gold and the US dollar in the medium to long term, driven by global liquidity changes, risk appetite, and technological advancements [77] - The company expects oil prices to fluctuate around $85-90 per barrel, with a potential increase in the latter half of the year due to supply-demand tightness and OPEC+ efforts to support prices [66][68] - The company notes that copper prices may face downward pressure in Q3 due to a strong US dollar, but a sustained upward trend will depend on the economic recovery post-rate cuts [71] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document.

| --- | --- | |-------|----------------------| | PWT | 佩恩表 | | q/q | 季度环比 | | Q1 | 第一季度 | | Q2 | 第二季度 | | Q3 | 第三季度 | | Q4 | 第四季度 | | RCB | 农村商业银行 | | R&D | 研究与开发 | | RHS | 右轴 | | RMB | 人民币 | | ROA | 资产回报率 | | ROE | 股本回报率 | | RRR | 存款准备金率 | | RURS | 城乡居民基本养老保险 | | sa | 季节调整 | | SAFE | 中国国家外汇管理局 | | SOE | 国有企业 | | TFP | 全要素生产率 | | UN | 联合国 | | US | 美国 | | USD | 美元 | | VAT | 增值税 | | WBG | 世界银行集团 | | WDI | 世界发展指标 | | y/y | 与上年同期相比 | | ytd | 年初迄今 | | 4mma | 4 个月度移动平均 | 概要 来源：世界银行。 注：f = 预测（基线情景）。* 世界银行工作人员估算。 更 ...

高盛：分析贸易政策不确定性对美欧的影响 ...

会议请面向开源证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户 好的 各位投资者大家晚上好 我是开源证券的传媒手机更新师方光照非常感谢各位投资者继续参加我们开源证券传媒和社会团队联合组成的这个超经济新闻旅的系列对话 我们今天是这个对话的第二期是由我和我们的社服团队首席编辑师楚敏总来给各位投资者来进一步分享一下最新的观点那我们这一期的话主要还是围绕着即将到来的这个暑期以及包括刚刚过去的这个618的这个文旅还有包括像潮玩精神消费这些相关的领域的一些数据和后面的一些展望来给投资者来做一个分享 那应该来讲的话就是刚刚包括过去的这个628以及即将到来的这个暑期可能都是这个因为随着这个放假嘛年轻人 像大学生啊 包括学生啊 群体啊等等可能还是会成为整个这种朝廷界然后包括这种精神消费还有一些新型的这个渐下的文旅文娱的一个消费的旺季所以我们认为当前的话 在整个的一个消费整体市场或者说从经济整体来看可能还会是一个相对比较突出的一个亮点所以是建议投资者当下去积极的关注那首先的话我给各位投资者来汇报一下出传媒这一块跟整个暑期消费相关的其实也是在我们之前的相关的一些录影里面我们也是多次提到就是整个的这个内容消费这一块 特别是近期就是线上内容像游戏、影 ...

大家好欢迎参加中外首席对话全球经济结构性分化及资产配置选择电话会议目前所有参会者均处于静音状态下面开始播报面子声明声明播报完毕后主持人可直接 本次会议为洪泽研究闭门会议仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经洪泽研究书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式将会议内容和相关信息对外公布转发、转载、传播、复制、编辑、修改等如有上述未经授权的侵权行为洪泽研究保留追究相关方法律责任的权利洪泽研究不承担因转发、转载、复制、传播引起的任何损失和责任 好 那各位线上的投资人朋友上午好欢迎各位参加宏泽研究主办的中外首席对话沙龙那今天我们很荣幸的邀请到了宏泽研究的创始合伙人兼策略首席马东凡马总以及在欧洲酒铺盛名的独立研究机构TS Lombard的亚太总裁廖敏雄廖博士来给大家做全球经济以及大类资产配置方面的分享 那在百年未有的变局之下呢我们过往的一些经验和规律好像已经不再适用了同时我们现在能看到的很多的经济数据也充满了矛盾给大家带来了很多的困惑那TS Lombard 他们尤其擅长的就是在长期结构性问题上面的一些研究在历史上重要的一些拐点上去做判断包括我们今天请来的嘉宾廖博士本身也是拥有近20年的资本市场经验 曾经受邀去央行外汇管理局装潢公司等参与宏观研 ...

国际经济形势或已见底回调 通胀高位 运行 美元/桶 150 120 - 90 71.51 60 时间: 24-04-08 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油: 86.43 美元/桶 30 - 期货收盘价(连续):NYMEX布油金融: 90.57 美元/桶 -30 -60 + 2024-04-08 2016-12 2022-12 2016-01 2017-12 2018-12 2019-12 2020-12 2021-12 == 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 == 期货收盘价(连续):NYMEX布油金融 数据来源 : Wind 油气价格展望 1.94 时间: 2024 IMF预测:GDP实际增长率:新兴市场和发展中经济体: 4.10 % ● IMF预测:GDP实际增长率:全球: 3.10 % ● IMF预测:GDP实际增长率:G7:1.25 % 0 - -6 2024-12-31 2028-12 1980-12 1983-12 1988-12 1993-12 1998-12 2003-12 2008-12 2013-12 2018-12 国家统计局初步核算，一季度国内生产总值296299亿 元，按不变价格计算，同 ...