Workflow
icon
Search documents
Sri Lanka Development Update, October 2024
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-24 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The economy of Sri Lanka has stabilized, recording four quarters of growth after critical structural and policy reforms, but the recovery remains fragile and dependent on continued macroeconomic stability and successful debt restructuring [15][21] - GDP growth was robust at 5 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by a rebound in the industrial sector and strong performance in tourism-related services [16][37] - The current account strengthened, driven by increased tourism receipts and remittances, contributing to an estimated balance of payments surplus [16][20] - Poverty remains high, with food insecurity widespread and labor force participation declining [17][21] Summary by Sections A. Macroeconomic Developments - The economy grew by 5 percent year-on-year in H1 2024, with external balances improving and inflation remaining in low single digits [16][18] - Fiscal balances strengthened with tax revenue increasing by 42.6 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2024, primarily due to higher VAT collection [17] - Despite economic growth, households face pressure from elevated poverty levels and declining health outcomes [17][18] B. Opening Up to the Future - Reviving exports is crucial for sustainable growth, with Sri Lanka's untapped export potential estimated at about US$10 billion annually [24][27] - The share of goods and services exports to GDP has been declining, reaching its lowest point of 15 percent in 2020, indicating a lack of diversification [25][27] - Structural reforms are necessary to enhance competitiveness and export orientation, including reducing tariffs and simplifying trade procedures [29][32] - Sri Lanka has opportunities to capitalize on shifts in global value chains due to geopolitical changes and supply chain disruptions [30][31]
Revisiting Public Investment Multipliers
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-24 23:03
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on public investment in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), indicating that public investment can significantly boost economic growth [3][12]. Core Insights - Public investment can increase output by 1.1 percent after five years for every 1 percent of GDP increase in public investment, with potential increases up to 1.6 percent in cases of high efficiency and ample fiscal space [12][13]. - The effectiveness of public investment multipliers is greater during recessions and in capital-scarce economies, with public investment also having crowding-in effects on private investment [12][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of public investment efficiency and fiscal space in determining the magnitude of its impact on economic growth [12][13]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Public investment is a crucial policy tool for fostering economic growth in EMDEs, especially in the context of significant investment gaps and a slump in private investment [7][8]. Methodology - The report employs a new approach to measure public investment shocks based on cyclically adjusted government investment, analyzing data from 129 countries over the period from 1980 to 2019 [10][36]. Empirical Results - Public investment shocks lead to a gradual increase in output, with a notable increase from 0.4 percent after one year to 1.1 percent after five years for a 1 percent of GDP increase in public investment [55]. - The report highlights significant heterogeneity in the effects of public investment across different EMDEs, with higher-income EMDEs experiencing stronger impacts compared to low-income countries [56].
The Impact of Market Volatility on Hotel Efficiency in Malaysia
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-23 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the hotel industry in Malaysia. Core Insights - The study finds that smaller hotels are more efficient in dealing with market volatility compared to larger hotels, with a significant positive impact of higher volatility on the efficiency of smaller hotels and a negative impact on larger hotels [11][37] - The research highlights that higher women's ownership in hotels contributes to better handling of volatility, indicating a gendered effect on hotel efficiency [12][52] Summary by Sections Introduction - The hotel industry in Malaysia experiences significant market demand volatility, which affects occupancy rates and operational efficiency [8] - The paper investigates how hotel size influences efficiency in the context of market volatility, suggesting that smaller hotels are more adaptable [8][9] Literature Review - Previous studies indicate mixed results regarding the impact of demand volatility on hotel performance, with many finding negative effects [9][15] - The relationship between firm size and efficiency has been explored, with smaller firms generally exhibiting greater flexibility in response to market changes [18][19] Methodology - The study employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure hotel efficiency, focusing on input-oriented models and variable returns to scale [20][22] - The analysis uses a nationally representative sample of private hotels in Malaysia, with 90 hotels included in the baseline sample [25] Results - A one standard deviation increase in occupancy rate volatility is associated with a 14.2% increase in efficiency for smaller hotels (25th percentile) and an 18.1% decrease for larger hotels (75th percentile) [11][37] - The interaction between hotel size and volatility is statistically significant, indicating that smaller hotels benefit from volatility while larger hotels suffer [37][40] Robustness Checks - The findings are robust across various efficiency measures, including bias-corrected and super efficiency models [39][40] - Alternative measures of hotel size and volatility confirm the main results, reinforcing the conclusion that smaller hotels are better equipped to handle market fluctuations [41][43] Extensions - The report explores the impact of volatility on scale efficiency, finding a negative relationship that is significant across specifications [48] - It also examines the differences between women-led and men-led hotels, revealing that higher women's ownership correlates with a less adverse impact of volatility on efficiency [52]
Mozambique - Strengthening NDC Ambitions through Blue Carbon Frontiers
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-23 23:03
blic Disclosure Auth Disclosure A | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------|-------------------------------------|-------|-------------|----------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | MOZAMBIQUE: | | | | | STRENCTHENING NDC AMBITIONS THROUGH | | BLUE CARBON | | | | | | | FRONTIERS | | | | | | | | | | | | PROBLUE | | | | | WORLD BANK GROUP | | | | | ...
Cambodia - Country Gender Action Plan FY25-FY29
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-23 23:03
CAMBODIA GENDER EQUALITY AND SOCIAL INCLUSION Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Cambodia Country Gender Action Plan FY25–FY29 Cambodia Country Gender Action Plan FY25–FY29 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS | --- | --- | |---------|---------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | ADB | Asian Development Bank | | AF | Additional Financing | | ASA | Advisory Services and Analytics | | ASEAN | Association of Southeast A ...
Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-23 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Guinea-Bissau possesses the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa, estimated at US$3,874, which can be leveraged for sustainable growth despite facing significant development challenges such as high poverty rates and political instability [15][32] - Climate change poses a severe threat to agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure, potentially leading to a 7.3% reduction in real GDP per capita by 2050 and increasing poverty levels [16][21] - The country has high mitigation ambitions, targeting a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but faces challenges due to political instability and limited financial resources [17][18] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Climate and Development - Guinea-Bissau's development context highlights its wealth in natural resources but also its underdevelopment, with a GDP per capita of US$775 and high poverty rates [31][32] - Political instability has significantly hampered economic progress, with the country experiencing numerous coups since independence [33][34] Chapter 2: Enabling Environment for Managing Climate Change - The financial sector is underdeveloped, limiting its ability to support green investments, although reforms could enhance resilience [17][18] Chapter 3: Development and Climate Priorities - Immediate actions are needed in agriculture to implement climate-smart practices and diversify crops, particularly focusing on cashew nut production, which dominates the economy [21][22] - Forest conservation is crucial for sustainable development, with mangroves playing a significant role in climate adaptation and mitigation [23][24] Chapter 4: Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Climate Change - The report discusses the macroeconomic impacts of climate change, indicating that without adaptation, GDP could decrease by up to 4.1% by 2050 [21][22] Chapter 5: Climate Financing - Concessional climate financing is essential due to the underdeveloped financial sector, and initiatives like the BioGuinea Foundation offer opportunities for biodiversity preservation [18][19] Chapter 6: Conclusions and Priorities - The report emphasizes the need for a cohesive approach that integrates development and climate strategies, focusing on governance, economic diversification, and investment in sustainable agriculture [19][27]
Technological Decoupling? The Impact on Innovation of US Restrictions on Chinese Firms
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-23 23:03
Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Findings - US sanctions on Chinese firms, particularly those listed on the Entity List, significantly reduce the quantity and quality of patent outputs, primarily due to decreased collaboration with US inventors [3][9][11] - Firms with higher initial patent stocks or in sectors with smaller technological distance to the US are less affected by the sanctions [12] - Sanctions in specific technology fields lead to a decline in patent output for both Chinese firms with US collaborators and US firms with Chinese collaborators [3][14] Recent Trends in Chinese Patenting - China's patent applications surged from fewer than 140,000 annually in the 1990s to nearly 1.6 million by 2022, with 120,000 patents filed abroad [20] - The share of patents filed by Chinese applicants in the USPTO increased from 0.2% in 2000 to 7.2% in 2022 [7] - The quality of Chinese patents has improved, with the proportion of top 1% cited patents granted by the EPO, USPTO, and PCT increasing from 0.2% in 1998 to approximately 8% in 2020 [21] Impact of US Sanctions on Chinese Firms - Inclusion in the US Entity List reduces the total patent applications of sanctioned firms by 9.9% and quality-adjusted patents by 14.0% [41] - Sanctions significantly discourage international patent applications, particularly in high-technology fields [41] - Firms with prior US collaborations experience a more pronounced decline in patent output, while firms without prior US collaborations see a slight increase [55] Spillover Effects on Non-Sanctioned Firms - Negative spillover effects are observed for non-sanctioned Chinese firms operating in the same technology fields as sanctioned firms, with a decline in total, international, and high-tech patenting [67] - Firms in downstream technology fields experience a decline in patent output, while those in upstream fields see a modest increase [15][72] - US firms with prior Chinese collaborations also experience a significant decline in patent activity following sanctions [75] Mechanisms Behind the Impact - Collaboration with US inventors is positively correlated with Chinese firms' innovation output, more so than collaboration with inventors from Europe or advanced East Asia [11][49] - Sanctions lead to a reduction in US collaborations for Chinese firms, particularly those with prior US collaborations, while increasing collaborations with advanced Asian economies [52][55] - Domestic innovation capacity, such as higher initial patent stocks and reliance on domestic knowledge, mitigates the negative impact of sanctions [56][60] Conclusion - US sanctions negatively impact the innovation output of targeted Chinese firms and other firms in the same technology fields, primarily through reduced US collaborations [76] - The sanctions may encourage domestic innovation in upstream sectors but hinder innovation in downstream sectors [15][76] - The long-term effects of these sanctions on Chinese firms' innovation output may be mitigated by China's increasing innovation capacity [79]
Mozambique - A Blue Carbon Readiness Assessment
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-22 23:08
ORLD BANK GROUP QB LUE CB 2024 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT MOZAMBIQUE Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized © 2024 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 | Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group, with external contributions. "The World Bank Group" refers to the legally separate organizations of the International Bank for Reconstruct ...
FY 2024 Dominican Republic Country Opinion Survey Report
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-22 23:03
Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The World Bank Group (WBG) is perceived as a trusted and effective development partner in the Dominican Republic, with significant improvements in key performance indicators compared to FY19 [6][8][13] - Stakeholders value the WBG's technical assistance, financial resources, and knowledge work, with 54% of respondents valuing technical assistance and implementation support the most [56][58] - The WBG's financial instruments are seen as increasingly positive, with respondents agreeing that the WBG insists on accountability and effectively monitors projects [58] Overall Context - Stakeholders in the Dominican Republic are highly familiar with the WBG, with a mean familiarity rating of 7.3, consistent with FY19 [6] - Respondents who collaborate with the WBG reported significantly higher familiarity (8.4) compared to those who do not (5.8) [6] - The WBG is among the most trusted institutions, with trust ratings significantly increasing for most institutions, especially the national government and the Central Bank [8] Development Priorities - Education and skills development remain the top priority for respondents, followed by environment/natural resource management and climate change [27][28] - 37% of respondents identified education and skills development as a priority, while 36% and 33% identified environment/natural resource management and climate change, respectively [29][30] WBG's Engagement and Collaboration - The WBG is increasingly seen as an open, responsive, accessible, and flexible partner, with significant improvements in these areas compared to FY19 [32][33] - Respondents perceived the WBG as collaborating more effectively with the national government, other donors, and civil society compared to FY19 [36][37] - Stakeholders want the WBG to collaborate more with civil society (50%) and provincial/municipal governments (45%) [40][42][44] Financial Instruments and Knowledge Work - 50% of respondents have used the WBG's knowledge work, with those who have used it reporting high satisfaction with its quality [59][60] - The WBG's knowledge work is perceived as contributing significantly to development results, with a mean rating of 8.6 for its contribution to development results [61][64] Future Role of the WBG - Stakeholders suggest that the WBG should engage more with stakeholders, better align with the Dominican Republic's development priorities, and increase financial support [67][68] - Focus areas for the WBG include education, climate change, gender equity, and digital development, with 40% of respondents emphasizing the need for better alignment with local needs [68][69][70][72][73] Communication and Outreach - Respondents prefer to receive WBG communications through events/conferences (56.4%), direct contact with staff (49.3%), and e-Newsletters (44.3%) [96][97] - 70% of respondents recalled hearing or seeing something about the WBG recently, with direct contact, newspapers, and social media being the most common sources [98][99]
From Ambition to Action
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-22 23:03
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized ENERGY SUBSIDY REFORM IN ACTION FROM AMBITION TO ACTION Practical Insights on Energy Subsidy Reforms REPORT ENERGY SUBSIDY REFORM IN ACTION FROM AMBITION TO ACTION Practical Insights on Energy Subsidy Reforms Defne Gencer and Beatriz Arizu ABOUT ESMAP The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is a partnership between the World Bank and over 20 partners to help low- and mid ...