Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 11120 VAT Exemptions, Embedded Tax, and Unintended Consequences William Chandler Alastair Thomas Frédéric Tremblay Economic Policy Global Department May 2025 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickl ...

5/13/2025 Summary Within the evolving landscape of artificial intelligence, large language models (LLMs), a type of generative artificial intelligence, offer significant potential for improving the collection, processing, and analysis of large volumes of text data in evaluation. In this note, we present key lessons and good practices for leveraging LLMs based on our recent experiments. The experiments' results reveal that the LLMs tested could perform text classification quite well, achieving satisfactory r ...

| ... 4CTONYMS . | | --- | | Preface & Acknowledgments. | | Public finance trends | | | --- | --- | | 1.1 | 1 | | Aggregate Fiscal Environment | 1 | | 1.2 | ব | | Revenue | ব | | 1.3 | | | Expenditure | | | Service Delivery | 10 | | --- | --- | | 2.1 | 10 | | Health Sector | 10 | | 2.2 | 14 | | Education Sector | 14 | | 2.3 | 20 | | Social Protection Sector | 20 | P. ii MYANMAR BUDGET BRIEF This version: March 2025 World Bank Myanmar COVER PAGE Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Publi ...

公共信息披露授权 公共信息披露授权 公共信息披露授权 公共信息披露授权 政策研究工作论文 11119 Using Household Surveys and Specialized 企业调查用于衡量非正规企业 Akuffo Amankwah Hi bret B. Maemir Paulin e Castaing Amparo P alacios-Lopez Richm ond Attah-Ankomah Diego Zardetto David C. Francis 发展经济学 发展数据 组 2025年5月 政策研究工作论文11119 摘要 本文比较了两种广泛用于调查非正规企业的方法： 家庭调查，通过家庭访谈收集企业数据，以及基于 地域的企业调查，直接针对特定地理区域内的企业 。通过在加纳的两个城市同时实施两种调查方法， 本研究考察了这些城市中非正规企业特征的关键差 异与相似性。分析显示，在这两种方法对非正规企 业数量的估算结果之间存在显著差异。 方法，其中家庭调查方法报告了显著更高的数量 。论文探讨了这些差异的潜在原因，重点关注设 计和实施因素。研究结果表明，这两种调查方法 在描述非正规企业和识别影响其绩效 ...

PFR Fundamentals TAX BUOYANCY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized PFR Fundamentals TAX BUOYANCY MAY 2025 World Bank Economic Policy Global Department Fiscal Policy © 2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily ref ...

VIET NAM MACRO MONITORING April 2025 WHAT' NEW? • GDP growth accelerated to 6.9 percent (y/y) in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent (y/y) in Q1-2024, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment. • Merchandise exports slowed in Q1-2025 to 10.6 percent compared to 16.8 percent in the same period in 2024, driven by a combination of high base effects and potential slowdown in global demand. 1 Additionally, while FDI new commitments declined by 9.2 percent y/y in Q1-2025, reflecting uncertain outlook, FDI d ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies involved. Core Insights - The Startup Act in Tunisia aims to promote the creation and growth of innovative enterprises through various incentives, including tax exemptions and simplified procedures, which have shown to improve survival rates and job creation among participating firms [3][10][13]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the significant role of startups in job creation and productivity growth, despite their high failure rates. It emphasizes the need for targeted policies to support startups, particularly in developing countries [8]. Impact of the Startup Act - The analysis focuses on the Startup Act's impact on firms that received the startup label, which grants them access to various benefits. The study uses a rigorous methodology to assess the effects on firm survival and performance [9][11][12]. Findings - Participating firms showed an 18 percentage point increase in survival rates compared to the baseline of 53%. Additionally, these firms increased their average employment by 2.0 employees and their wage bill by 69,000 TND (approximately 23,000 USD) [13][14]. Economic Context - Tunisia faced high unemployment rates, particularly among youth, during the analysis period. The Startup Act was implemented in a challenging economic environment, with a contraction in GDP and high inflation [33][35]. Data Sources - The research utilized a comprehensive dataset from various government sources, including tax, employment, and trade data, to evaluate the performance of firms that applied for the startup label [37][38]. Methodology - A difference-in-differences approach was employed to compare the performance of labeled firms with those that were not selected, addressing potential selection bias through a detailed evaluation process [42][44]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the Startup Act has been effective in promoting the survival and growth of innovative startups in Tunisia, providing valuable insights for similar initiatives in developing economies [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Achieving global net-zero carbon emissions requires halting deforestation and leveraging tropical forests as carbon sinks, with market mechanisms from REDD+ projects playing a crucial role [4][10] - Current carbon markets are underdeveloped, with existing mechanisms lacking the quality needed to support expanded demand, although efforts to enhance transparency and regulation are accelerating [4][5] - Innovative financial tools are being explored to mobilize investment in REDD+ frameworks, particularly in tropical countries, with significant potential for future development [5][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Economic Drivers of Deforestation - Deforestation reflects unsustainable economic models in many developing countries, necessitating a fundamental shift towards sustainable growth that aligns economic development with forest conservation [9][10] - Effective policies combining protection and economic incentives are essential to halt deforestation, particularly in the Amazon [9][10] Section 2: JREDD+ Economics - The average price of REDD+ emission reductions (ERs) has increased significantly, from $3.9 per ton in 2019 to $11.21 per ton in 2023, yet the market remains small and insufficient to incentivize deforestation reduction [11][23] - The estimated cost for economically viable REDD+ supply is between $30 to $50 per ton of CO2, indicating a potential for significant cost savings in the transition to net-zero [12] Section 3: Innovative Financial Tools - The report discusses the potential of forest carbon bonds, call options, and put options to lower investment risks and mobilize private capital for REDD+ projects [18][41] - Forest carbon bonds can provide a mechanism for borrowing against future emission reductions, essential for financing necessary investments to curb deforestation [18][41] - Options contracts can help manage risks associated with carbon price fluctuations, allowing for more stable investment environments [54][56] Section 4: Case Study of Brazil - A numerical example from Brazil illustrates how the proposed financial tools can enhance the capacity for private investment and accelerate JREDD+ initiatives [19][20] - The tools discussed could mobilize substantial investment, creating strong policy incentives to prevent deforestation [19][20] Section 5: Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for increased private sector participation in the JREDD+ market, both as buyers of carbon credits and as financiers of emission reduction actions [15][16] - The development of financial solutions tailored to the diverse needs of investors is crucial for attracting private capital to the JREDD+ market [18][32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - The study estimates the scale of labor market scarring effects in developing countries, particularly focusing on the stigma and human capital loss experienced by unemployed workers due to factory closures. The findings indicate a significant and lasting income reduction, with average hourly wages declining by 7.5% over a nine-year observation period, and a more pronounced decline of 10.8% in the first year following job loss. The analysis reveals that stigma accounts for 30.8% of the average income loss, while lost employer-specific human capital explains the remaining 69.2% [4][59][60]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the reallocation of labor and the potential for scarring effects in labor markets, particularly in developing countries where informal employment is prevalent. The paper aims to fill the gap in literature regarding labor market scarring effects in these economies [8]. Literature Review - The literature review highlights the scarcity of empirical evidence on labor market scarring effects in developing countries, contrasting with the extensive research available for developed economies. It references various studies that have examined the impact of unemployment on wages and employment probabilities in different contexts [15][18]. Data - The study utilizes data from the National Employment and Unemployment Survey (ENOE) in Mexico, covering a representative sample of approximately 1.67 million workers from 2005 to 2019. The analysis focuses on individuals aged 15 to 65 and examines the effects of job loss due to factory closures [20][22]. Econometric Methods - The econometric strategy involves estimating the average impact of unemployment on labor market outcomes, distinguishing between temporary and permanent effects. The study employs a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to control for unobserved individual characteristics [26][29]. Results - The results indicate that workers displaced by factory closures experience significant and persistent wage declines, with an average reduction of 7.5%. The analysis shows that the probability of formal employment decreases in the short term but recovers over time. The findings also reveal differences in the impact of factory closures based on education levels and gender [39][41][43]. Conclusion - The conclusion summarizes the contributions of the study, emphasizing the importance of understanding labor market scarring effects in developing countries and the relative contributions of stigma and human capital loss to income reductions. The report suggests avenues for future research to further explore these dynamics [58][60].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Maldives industry Core Insights - Economic growth in the Maldives remained robust in 2024, with real GDP growth estimated at 5.5 percent, driven primarily by a strong tourism sector [18][34] - Tourist arrivals reached an all-time high of 2.05 million in 2024, marking an increase of 8.9 percent year-on-year [18][35] - Headline inflation averaged 1.4 percent in 2024, with food inflation rising to 6.6 percent [19][42] - The fiscal deficit widened to MVR 12.7 billion (US$822.4 million) or 11.7 percent of GDP in 2024, driven by increased expenditure [20][52] - The current account deficit (CAD) remained elevated at 20.5 percent of GDP in 2024, with a trade deficit of US$3.3 billion [21][68] - Foreign exchange reserves fell to critically low levels, reaching US$371.2 million in September 2024, before recovering to US$832.1 million by February 2025 [22][69] - Public and publicly guaranteed debt rose to US$9.4 billion, or 134.2 percent of GDP, in 2024 [25][59] - The report emphasizes the need for urgent fiscal consolidation to address rising public debt and external vulnerabilities [30][29] Economic Update - Growth remained robust while inflationary pressures picked up in recent months [34] - Fiscal deficits continued to increase and remain elevated [49] - Public debt and external debt servicing increased in 2024 [59] - Potential austerity measures may impact household welfare if unmitigated [65] - External pressures have severely reduced FX reserves [68] Outlook and Risks - Growth is forecast to moderate, inflation to increase, and fiscal and external deficits to remain elevated [26][27] - Risks to the outlook are heavily tilted to the downside [29] - Implementing a sharp fiscal adjustment remains an urgent priority in the medium term [30]