Investment Rating - The report indicates that Guatemala's sovereign risk rating is the lowest in Central America, with a budgetary central government deficit averaging 1.3 percent of GDP from 2021 to 2024 and a public debt stock of 26.4 percent of GDP in 2024, rated one notch below investment grade by Moody's and two notches by S&P and Fitch [22][18][19]. Core Insights - Guatemala has a track record of prudent fiscal policy but faces large spending needs, particularly in infrastructure and social spending, which are essential for boosting growth and reducing poverty [17][22]. - The government needs to increase revenues efficiently and fairly to meet its spending needs, as current revenues are too low to close the infrastructure gap and accelerate poverty reduction [23][27]. - The report identifies opportunities for increasing tax revenues through reforms in personal income tax (PIT), corporate income tax (CIT), value-added tax (VAT), and excise taxes, focusing on altering rate structures and reforming tax expenditures [27][28]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Guatemala has developed a prudent fiscal policy but has significant spending needs, with a fiscal deficit averaging 1.5 percent of GDP from 2019 to 2023 [17][18]. Revenue - Tax revenue in Guatemala was 14.4 percent of GDP in 2022, one of the lowest in the region, with potential to increase by 2-3 percentage points of GDP [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the need for legislative reforms to increase tax revenues, which must be supported by a robust political consensus [30][31]. Public Financial Management - The government has utilized performance-based budgeting since 2013, but improvements are needed to enhance expenditure efficiency and align budgeting with social priorities [36][37]. Fiscal Risks - The report highlights the importance of strengthening the management of fiscal risks, including those arising from climate change, to enable greater infrastructure investment and support investment-grade status [43][39].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant global inequalities and vaccine hesitancy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), necessitating innovative solutions to improve vaccine uptake [6][14] - The Alliance for Health Online (AHO) and the World Bank's eMBeD Unit developed a global research program utilizing social media and behavioral science to address vaccine hesitancy [7][21] - The program reached 230,000 respondents across 25 countries, supporting an estimated $700 million in World Bank vaccine operations [8][9] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The pandemic resulted in approximately 6.88 million reported deaths and 14.83 million excess deaths globally by March 2023, with vaccine hesitancy being a major driver of disparities in vaccination rates [6][14] - The AHO and World Bank's program aimed to diagnose barriers to vaccine uptake and develop effective communication strategies [7] Project Overview - The research program, launched in January 2021 with $2 million funding, aimed to understand and tackle vaccine hesitancy through behavioral science and social media [23] - Key activities included rapid diagnostics, message testing, and capacity building for social and behavioral change communications (SBCC) [24][25] Impacts - The project achieved significant impacts, with 91% of World Bank project leads finding the support effective and 82% indicating a likelihood to apply behavioral insights in future projects [9][67] - The use of social media for data collection proved to be fast and economical, with Facebook data showing comparable results to other survey modalities [10][83] Lessons Learned - Social media can facilitate rapid data collection and testing, with an average cost per completed response of $1.36 [83] - Chatbots enhance engagement and interaction, achieving a survey completion rate of 84% [85] Recommendations for Future Projects - Continuous investment in digital tools and training is essential for effective communication strategies [99] - Future projects should prioritize adaptive risk communication strategies and misinformation resistance components [101][102] Next Steps - The report suggests developing AI-powered guidance for SBCC interventions to personalize messaging and improve health outcomes [110]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The digital gender divide in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) presents significant disparities in internet access and usage between men and women, with men generally having better access, although some countries show a higher percentage of women accessing the internet [2][3] - Closing the digital gender gap could potentially add $700 billion to global GDP, highlighting the economic implications of improving women's digital access [9] Summary by Sections Context - Household access to home internet in LAC increased from 50.7% in 2018 to 68.4% in 2022, with urban areas showing higher access rates [2] - Gender disparities exist, with men generally having better access, but some countries like the Dominican Republic show a significant gap favoring women [2] Barriers to Women's Participation - Factors hindering women's online participation include household responsibilities, wage gaps, and lack of access to digital tech training [3] - Women express greater concerns about online privacy and security, which affects their engagement with digital technologies [3] Economic Impact - Digital access enhances women's labor market opportunities, with evidence showing that a 1% increase in internet access can lead to a 0.7% rise in women's labor force participation [4] - The exclusion of women from digital access resulted in an estimated GDP loss of approximately US$126 billion in 32 low and lower-middle-income countries [8] Evidence of Effective Interventions - The World Bank's multi-pillar approach aims to reduce the digital gender gap through expanding digital infrastructure and improving access to affordable devices [9] - Various studies indicate that digital financial services and training programs significantly enhance women's financial literacy and employment opportunities [11][12][13] Recommendations for Closing the Gap - Improving access to digital infrastructure and financial services can empower low-income women [17] - Developing digital skills through targeted training programs and including a gender perspective in ICT policies are essential for promoting inclusivity [17] Ongoing Projects - The report outlines several projects across LAC aimed at increasing women's digital skills and access, such as the Strengthening Data Infrastructure project in Argentina and the Haiti Digital Acceleration Project [21][19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Improved internet infrastructure significantly impacts supply chains and economic activity, particularly in Turkiye, leading to enhanced connectivity that diversifies supplier networks and reduces costs associated with information acquisition and communication [4][11][23] - The expansion of fiber-optic networks has resulted in a 2.2% increase in real income in the median province of Turkiye, highlighting the economic benefits of digital infrastructure investments [4][13][23] Summary by Sections Introduction - The paper discusses the role of high-speed internet in facilitating business-to-business transactions and enhancing economic growth through improved communication and collaboration [10][11] Background and Data - Turkiye's fiber-optic network expanded significantly from 2012 to 2019, covering 390,800 kilometers, which has led to a fivefold increase in fiber internet subscribers [31][34] - The data used in the analysis includes firm-to-firm transaction data, internet availability, and regional economic data, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of internet connectivity on firms [35][39] Empirical Evidence - The rollout of fiber-optic cables has positively affected firms' input sourcing strategies, leading to a reallocation of input purchases towards provinces with better internet connectivity [60][64] - Firms have diversified their supplier base, sourcing from more suppliers and distributing purchases more equitably among them due to improved internet access [64][66] Model and Estimation - A spatial equilibrium model is employed to quantify the effects of internet connectivity on firms' input sourcing decisions, revealing that better connectivity reduces both communication and information acquisition costs [20][22][23] - The model estimates significant elasticities of firm-to-firm trade with respect to internet connectivity, indicating that improved fiber connectivity enhances firms' ability to access a wider variety of inputs [22][23] Robustness Checks - The findings are robust to various checks, including the inclusion of additional controls and alternative measures of fiber connectivity, confirming the positive impact of internet infrastructure on firms' sourcing strategies [68][70]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under discussion Core Insights - The value-added tax (VAT) is an effective revenue tool for both developed and developing countries, with 175 countries implementing it as of 2024 [7] - VAT exemptions can lead to increased production costs as they deny input tax credits, resulting in VAT being embedded in the prices of goods and services [2][7] - The paper develops a VAT model using data from 29 European countries to analyze the effects of VAT exemptions on final prices and their overall effectiveness [2][7] - Exemptions are often used for pragmatic reasons, such as reducing compliance costs for small businesses and addressing specific policy goals, but they can have negative consequences that undermine their effectiveness [8][21] Summary by Sections Introduction - The VAT's design allows businesses to charge VAT on sales while claiming credits for VAT paid on purchases, ensuring it acts as a tax on final consumption [7] - Exemptions disrupt this process by increasing production costs and embedding VAT in prices, which has not been extensively quantified in previous research [7][8] Methodology - The model is based on input-output tables for 29 European countries, capturing supply and use relationships among 45 commodities [12][24] - The model allows for the introduction and removal of exemptions, capturing the direct, embedded, and cascaded VAT effects [13][14] Simulation Results - The simulation results indicate that effective VAT rates on exempted commodities are always below the baseline VAT rate of 10% but above zero due to embedded VAT [19][64] - The degree of embedded VAT varies significantly across commodities, with some exemptions leading to higher effective tax rates on final consumption than the standard VAT rate [65][66] - The report concludes that exemptions are an inferior policy tool compared to reduced VAT rates and should be limited to addressing specific pragmatic concerns [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The integration of large language models (LLMs) in evaluation practices can significantly enhance the efficiency and validity of text data analysis, although challenges in ensuring the completeness and relevance of information extraction remain [2][17][19]. Key Considerations for Experimentation - Identifying relevant use cases is crucial, as LLMs should be applied where they can add significant value compared to traditional methods [9][23]. - Detailed workflows for use cases help teams understand how to effectively apply LLMs, allowing for the reuse of successful components [10][28]. - Agreement on resource allocation and expected outcomes is essential for successful experimentation, including clarity on human resources, technology, and definitions of success [11][33]. - A robust sampling strategy is necessary to facilitate effective prompt development and model evaluation [12][67]. - Appropriate metrics must be selected to measure LLM performance, with standard machine learning metrics for discriminative tasks and human assessment criteria for generative tasks [13][36]. Experiments and Results - The report details a series of experiments conducted to evaluate LLM performance in text classification, summarization, synthesis, and information extraction, with satisfactory results achieved in various tasks [19][49]. - For text classification, the model achieved a recall score of 0.75 and a precision score of 0.60, indicating effective performance [53]. - In generative tasks, the model demonstrated high relevance (4.87), coherence (4.97), and faithfulness (0.90) in text summarization, while also performing well in information extraction [58]. Emerging Good Practices - Iterative prompt development and validation are critical for achieving satisfactory results, emphasizing the importance of refining prompts based on model responses [14][60]. - Including representative examples in prompts enhances the model's ability to generate relevant responses [81]. - A request for justification in prompts can aid in understanding the model's reasoning and improve manual verification of responses [80]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the potential of LLMs to transform evaluation practices through thoughtful integration, continuous learning, and adaptation, while also highlighting the importance of maintaining analytical rigor [18][21].

Investment Rating - The fiscal deficit is expected to be 5.5 percent of GDP in FY2024/25, slightly up from 5.4 percent in FY2023/24, indicating a challenging fiscal environment [17][26]. Core Insights - Total revenue is estimated to have declined to 19.9 percent of GDP in FY2023/24 from 21.3 percent a year earlier, projected to rise to 22.2 percent in FY2024/25 [19][34]. - Public debt is expected to remain elevated at about 62 percent of GDP in FY2024/25 [19]. - Spending is budgeted to rise to 27.4 percent of GDP in FY2024/25 from 25.0 percent in FY2023/24, driven by rising costs associated with civil service payroll, MSME development, and higher defense spending [20][47]. - Inflation-adjusted spending on public health is estimated to have declined by 46 percent between FY2019/20 and FY2024/25, significantly impacting healthcare demands [20][68]. - Inflation-adjusted spending on education has declined by 35 percent between FY2019/20 and FY2024/25, reflecting the adverse effects of the pandemic and military coup [21][78]. - Social protection spending has decreased from 0.13 to 0.05 percent of GDP between FY2019/20 and FY2024/25, indicating a shift in government priorities [23][99]. Public Finance Trends - The fiscal deficit is projected to increase slightly to 5.5 percent of GDP in FY2024/25, driven by higher expenditure projections [17][26]. - Non-tax revenue accounted for about two-thirds of total revenue in FY2023/24, with significant contributions from State-owned Economic Enterprises, particularly in oil and gas [18][35]. - Total spending is revised to increase to 27.4 percent of GDP in FY2024/25, largely due to recurrent spending [47]. - The wage bill is expected to yield a 0.1 percentage point increase in the wage bill, up to 1.8 percent of GDP [47]. Sectoral Analysis Health Sector - The Ministry of Health's spending is projected to remain low at around 0.6 percent of GDP in FY2024/25, contributing to a decline in the overall resilience of Myanmar's healthcare system [61][67]. - The real value of Ministry of Health spending has significantly declined, limiting the public health sector's capacity to provide essential services [68]. Education Sector - The Ministry of Education's spending as a percentage of GDP has steadily declined from 2.1 percent in FY2019/20 to around 1.6 percent in FY2024/25 [77][78]. - The budget for the School Improvement Support Program has decreased, reflecting the broader impact of escalating conflict across the country [90]. Social Protection Sector - Social protection spending has declined significantly, with real spending by the Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief, and Resettlement dropping by 66 percent between FY2019/20 and FY2024/25 [107]. - The share of the population receiving any type of cash assistance has reduced from 8.7 percent in 2017 to 5 percent in 2023, indicating a decrease in social support [108].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The informal sector in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) contributes between 30% to 70% of GDP and employs 20% to 80% of the workforce, indicating a significant portion of economic activity operates outside regulatory frameworks [9][14]. - The study compares two widely used methods for surveying informal enterprises: household surveys and area-based enterprise surveys, revealing significant differences in the estimated number of informal enterprises, with household surveys reporting a notably higher count [4][15]. - Both survey methods yield consistent descriptive statistics regarding informal enterprises and identify key factors influencing their performance, such as bank account ownership, business sector (retail), phone usage, and operating in fixed locations outside the household [4][15]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The informal sector is a prominent feature in LMICs, with substantial contributions to GDP and employment, yet measuring its size poses significant challenges due to methodological issues [9][10]. Methodology - The study employs two main survey methods: household surveys (HS) and area-based enterprise surveys (ISES), each with distinct advantages and disadvantages in estimating the informal sector [20][21]. - The research aims to explore the differences between these methods and provide recommendations for enhancing the measurement of informal enterprises [12][13]. Findings - The analysis indicates that while the two methods differ significantly in estimating the number of informal enterprises, they are largely consistent in generating descriptive statistics about these enterprises and their performance-related factors [15]. - The informal sector in Ghana includes both agricultural and non-agricultural enterprises, with over 65% of employment and nearly 36% of GDP attributed to informal enterprises [14]. Data and Sampling Procedures - Data for the study was collected from two independent surveys conducted in the same geographical areas of Ghana, specifically in Kumasi and Tamale, during similar time frames [30][31]. - The HS-IME survey utilized a two-stage stratified cluster sampling design, while the ISES survey employed an adaptive cluster sampling method, highlighting the methodological differences in capturing informal enterprises [45][46]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of accurate data collection methods to inform policy decisions regarding the informal sector, which is crucial for understanding economic dynamics and improving labor market conditions in LMICs [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of accurately estimating tax buoyancy for medium-term fiscal sustainability and prudent spending choices [16] - It distinguishes between tax elasticity and tax buoyancy, noting that while both measure tax revenue responses to economic growth, they yield different outcomes [16][20] - The report recommends a methodological approach for estimating tax buoyancy, which is crucial for analyzing a country's tax systems [17] Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction outlines the significance of revenue mobilization projections and the relationship between tax systems and economic activity [16][17] Theoretical Framework and Empirical Approaches - Tax buoyancy is defined as the total response of tax revenues to both automatic changes in economic growth and discretionary changes in tax policy [20] - Theoretical frameworks for estimating tax buoyancy include autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, which allow for dynamic relationships between tax revenue and GDP [27][28] Empirical Approach for Estimating Tax Buoyancy - The report utilizes annual panel data on total tax revenues and GDP for 171 countries from 1980 to 2021, emphasizing the need for a large number of observations [40] - It recommends using the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator for panel data to account for unobserved heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence [41] Results - Long-run tax buoyancy estimates are around one for high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries, while low-income countries show significantly less than one, indicating a risk of increased indebtedness [46] - Short-run buoyancy estimates across all country-income groups suggest that tax systems are not well equipped to stabilize the economy in the short run [46] - The report presents detailed tax buoyancy estimates by country-income groups and regions, highlighting variations in buoyancy across different classifications [47][49]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a real GDP growth target of 8 percent for 2025, supported by increased domestic consumption and investment [7][30]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment [2][14]. - Merchandise exports growth slowed to 10.6 percent in Q1-2025 from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, influenced by high base effects and potential global demand slowdown [3][15]. - FDI new commitments declined by 9.2 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, while FDI disbursements remained resilient at $4.9 billion, reflecting a 7.1 percent increase year-on-year [3][21]. - Industrial production increased by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, compared to 4.8 percent in March 2024, with significant contributions from apparel, electronics, and machinery [4][17]. - Retail sales surged by 10.8 percent year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly two years, supported by a 9.5 percent increase in average monthly income [4][23]. - Inflation rose to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, driven by food and housing prices, but remains below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth reached 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, with consumption and investment growing by 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent respectively [14]. Trade and Investment - Merchandise exports grew by 10.6 percent in Q1-2025, down from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, while imports increased by 16.9 percent year-on-year [3][15]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1-2025 from $7.7 billion in Q1-2024 [15]. Industrial Production - Industrial production index rose by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the PMI indicating expansion at 50.5 [4][17]. Domestic Consumption - Retail sales of goods and services increased by 10.8 percent year-on-year, supported by rising average monthly income [4][23]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation increased to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the SBV raising the inflation target to 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Fiscal Performance - Revenue collection for Q1-2025 reached 36.7 percent of the annual plan, driven by increases in VAT and corporate income tax [6][30].