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区域就业更新:来自拉丁美洲和加勒比地区劳动力调查的见解(英)2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-09 06:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Jobs are a primary mechanism for poverty reduction in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), accounting for two-thirds of the decline during the last period of rapid progress (2009-14) [4] - LAC generated approximately 27 million net new jobs over the past decade, with job growth rates comparable to other global regions [4][30] - The labor market is expected to become less dynamic in 2025 due to downgraded economic growth projections [7] Summary by Sections 1. Trends and Projections - Employment creation and earnings growth were instrumental in reducing poverty rates to prepandemic levels [5] - Labor market performance has stabilized at historical rates of approximately 2 percent year-over-year since Q3 2023 [6] - Job creation is projected to decline slightly to 1.6 percent year-to-year in 2025 [7] 2. Labor Market Structure - The working-age employment rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 58.9 percent in 2024, while unemployment dropped from 8.5 to 6.2 percent [37] - Youth unemployment fell by over 5 percentage points since 2016 but remained high at 14 percent in 2024 [38] - Labor informality rates declined by 2.3 percentage points to 42.1 percent of workers from 2016 to 2024 [52] 3. Labor Incomes - Labor market incomes exhibited limited gains with an annualized growth of 0.3 percent from 2016 to 2019 [61] - In 2024, earnings rose by at least 3 percent across most socioeconomic groups, but workers with low educational attainment experienced only 0.8 percent growth [62] - Gender earnings disparities remained stagnant, with women earning on average about 22 percent less than men [62] 4. Sectoral Reallocations - Structural transformation has been slow, with inconsistent reallocation of workers toward higher-productivity sectors [90] - Employment has shifted toward higher-productivity sectors in some countries like Brazil and Mexico, while others like Argentina and Bolivia have seen increases in low-productivity sectors [93]
利用2021年购买力平价和新的消费数据重新审视全球贫困
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-05 23:10
Investment Rating - The report indicates an upward revision of the international poverty line to $3.00 per person per day in 2021 purchasing power parities (PPPs), reflecting a significant increase of around 40% from the previous line of $2.15 [12][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights that recent improvements in survey methodologies have led to an increase in measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries, prompting upward revisions of national poverty lines [3][9]. - The net effect of these methodological changes and new survey data has resulted in an increase in global extreme poverty by approximately 125 million people in 2022, with a notable shift of poverty from South Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa [3][13]. - The international poverty line is now based on the median national poverty line of low-income countries, which has been significantly revised due to improved data quality and timeliness [12][66]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the use of updated purchasing power parities (PPPs) and new survey data to establish new poverty lines for global poverty monitoring [7]. Data - The analysis incorporates 2021 PPPs and over 2,400 income and consumption surveys from 172 countries, covering more than 97% of the global population [28][30]. Setting Poverty Lines - The international poverty line is defined as the median harmonized poverty line of low-income countries, now set at $3.00, with corresponding lines for lower-middle and upper-middle-income countries updated to $4.20 and $8.30, respectively [40][41]. Changes in Global Poverty Lines - The report identifies four main sources of changes in global poverty lines: price changes from PPPs and CPIs, underlying national poverty lines, income classification changes, and the number of countries with available data [59][60]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the increase in the international poverty line is primarily driven by new poverty lines from low-income countries, reflecting improved survey methodologies rather than an increase in poverty aspirations [66].
约束下的产业政策
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-05 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under study Core Insights - The export promotion policy in Pakistan, specifically the Duty Drawback of Taxes (DDT) scheme, had a small overall impact on textile exports but caused significant reallocation among products, favoring traditional garments eligible for higher rebate rates [4][10][11] - For every US$1 spent on the DDT scheme, only US$1.1 in additional exports was generated, indicating limited effectiveness [10][41] - The scheme led to strategic misreporting at the border, although this had a minor overall impact on recorded exports [11][62] Summary by Sections Introduction - The paper discusses the shift in industrial policy from protectionist to export-oriented strategies, highlighting the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of export promotion policies [8][9] Export Promotion and Performance - The DDT scheme is a key export promotion policy for Pakistan's textile sector, which constitutes 55% of total exports. The budget for the scheme increased significantly post-2014, reaching about 1% of the total federal budget during 2017-2020 [9][20][25] Data and Methodology - The study employs product-level data and synthetic control methods to analyze the impact of the DDT scheme, comparing eligible and non-eligible products [9][27][35] Results - The DDT scheme resulted in a 1.9% average annual increase in textile exports from 2015 to 2019, primarily driven by high-rate garment exports, while lower-rate and non-eligible products experienced a decline [41][44] - The overall effect of the scheme was small, with significant negative impacts on lower-rate products counterbalancing the positive effects on higher-rate products [41][44] Mechanisms and Additional Results - The analysis indicates that shifts in the composition of exporters, with new entrants less likely to focus on lower-rate products, contributed to the observed export changes [52][54] - Capacity constraints faced by firms limited their ability to expand exports of high-rate products without reducing lower-rate product exports [55][61] - The report suggests that larger exporters benefited more from the DDT scheme, while smaller exporters faced challenges due to increased competition [61]
高等教育中的人工智能革命
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-05 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The integration of AI in higher education is transforming learning, teaching, and institutional operations, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) [15][16] - AI tools are enhancing educational access, efficiency, and equity, but adoption remains fragmented due to infrastructure gaps and limited innovation [15][17] - The report emphasizes the need for strategic investments in AI research, faculty training, and improved digital infrastructure to fully realize AI's potential [17][21] Summary by Sections I. Executive Summary - AI is revolutionizing higher education by providing scalable and personalized solutions [15] - AI-powered tools have shown significant impacts, such as a 20% increase in student placement efficiency and a 38% improvement for under-assigned students [16][22] - The report identifies critical barriers to AI adoption, including the digital divide and ethical concerns [17] II. Introduction - Higher education in LAC has expanded significantly, with enrollments increasing from 21 million in 2009 to over 31 million in 2023 [28] - The number of universities has grown from 75 in 1950 to approximately 1,867 today [29] III. Students-Centered Tools - AI Tutoring Systems (AITS) and adaptive learning platforms are key innovations that personalize education [57] - A Harvard study found that students using AI tutors learned more than twice as much in less time compared to traditional classrooms [60] IV. Faculty-Centered Tools and Practices - Faculty members see AI as an opportunity, with 86% believing they will use AI in teaching in the future [87] - AI can enhance teaching effectiveness and streamline instructional practices [88][89] V. Staff-Centered Institutional Tools and Practices - AI applications support resource allocation, predict enrollment trends, and enhance institutional efficiency [23] - AI-driven student profiling can identify at-risk students and enable early interventions [23] VI. Challenges - The report outlines several challenges, including infrastructure and access barriers, teacher preparedness, and ethical frameworks [30][31] - Concerns about algorithmic bias and data privacy are highlighted as critical issues [34][35] VII. Conclusion - The report calls for a collaborative approach among governments, universities, and the private sector to foster an innovation-friendly environment [21] - Emphasizes the importance of ethical AI governance to ensure equitable access and build trust [26]
突尼斯经济监测,2025年春季
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-04 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Tunisian economy or specific sectors within it. Core Insights - The Tunisian economy grew by 1.4 percent in 2024, recovering from zero growth in 2023, but remains below pre-Covid levels, indicating a divergence from regional peers [18] - The current account deficit (CAD) decreased to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2024, down from 2.3 percent in 2023, easing some pressure on external financing needs [19] - Domestic financing of public debt has increased significantly, raising concerns about the sovereign-banking nexus and its potential impact on the credit market [21] - Inflation moderated to 5.6 percent in April 2025, aligning with pre-Covid averages, although food inflation remains higher at 7.3 percent [23] - The budget deficit decreased from 6.3 percent of GDP in 2023 to 5.8 percent in 2024, but tax revenues underperformed due to limited economic activity [24] - Future growth is projected at 1.9 percent in 2025, assuming improved rainfall and a recovery in the manufacturing sector, but risks remain elevated [25][26] - Improved port connectivity and trade facilitation could yield significant economic gains, potentially increasing GDP by 4-5 percent within 3-4 years [27][28] Recent Economic Developments - The economy's growth was driven by a partial recovery in agriculture and tourism, but hindered by challenges in oil, mining, and manufacturing sectors [18] - The trade deficit widened by 10.9 percent in 2024, remaining stable at 11.4 percent of GDP, with a significant deterioration in early 2025 [19] - Tunisia's reliance on domestic sources for external financing is increasing, with the Central Bank authorized to lend up to 7 billion dinars (4.1 percent of GDP) to the government in 2025 [20] - The share of domestic debt in total debt rose from 29.7 percent in 2019 to 53.8 percent in 2024, indicating a shift in financing dynamics [21] Inflation and Budgetary Pressure - Inflation has moderated, with food prices remaining a concern due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [23] - The budget continues to face pressure, with a decline in the wage bill and limited growth in public expenditures impacting overall fiscal health [24][36] Future Outlook - Moderate growth is expected in 2025-2027, with significant downside risks related to trade uncertainty and external financing conditions [25][26] - Enhancements in port infrastructure and trade facilitation are critical for leveraging Tunisia's strategic location and improving economic performance [27][28]
2024财年阿拉伯联合酋长国国家意见调查报告
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-03 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the World Bank Group's activities in the UAE Core Insights - Stakeholders in the UAE have shown an increasingly positive attitude towards the World Bank Group (WBG), with significant improvements in perceptions of its effectiveness and relevance since the FY18 survey [15][19] - Skills development and climate change are identified as top priorities for the WBG's focus in the UAE, with a notable increase in emphasis on health, gender equity, and digital infrastructure compared to previous years [22][23] Summary by Sections Overall Attitudes Toward the World Bank Group - In FY24, stakeholders rated the WBG's effectiveness in helping the UAE achieve development results at 7.9, a significant improvement from FY18 [15][16] - Familiarity with the WBG and its alignment with development priorities also received higher ratings compared to FY18, although these improvements did not reach statistical significance [15][19] World Bank Group's Support for Development Areas - Approximately 50% of respondents identified skills development as the primary area for WBG focus, with climate change increasing in importance by 13% since FY18 [22] - Health, gender equity, and digital infrastructure development have seen a significant rise in priority among stakeholders [23] Effectiveness of the WBG's Sectoral Support - The WBG's support for debt sustainability received the highest effectiveness ratings, followed by agriculture and food security, and health [27][28] - Perceptions of effectiveness have improved across all areas compared to FY18, although these differences did not reach statistical significance [27] World Bank Group's Engagement on the Ground in the UAE - Respondents rated the WBG as a long-term partner and flexible in adapting to changing circumstances, with mean ratings improving since FY18 [32][33] - Collaboration with the federal government was rated as the most effective, with calls for increased collaboration with academia and the private sector [35][38] World Bank Group's Knowledge Work - The WBG's advisory services and knowledge products were considered the most valuable, with 67% of respondents having utilized its knowledge work [43][46] - Satisfaction with the quality of advisory services has increased, with significant improvements noted in the perception of the WBG's contribution to development results [47][49] The Future Role of the World Bank Group in the UAE - Respondents emphasized the need for the WBG to focus on national-level studies, climate change adaptation, and collaboration with various stakeholders to enhance its effectiveness [51][52][53] Communication and Outreach - Direct contact with WBG staff and events were the preferred channels for communication, with 52% of respondents recalling recent interactions with the WBG [58][60] - Economic forecasts and research on human capital and climate change were frequently recalled topics [63][65]
2024财年沙特阿拉伯王国国家意见调查报告
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-03 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the World Bank Group's activities in Saudi Arabia Core Insights - The World Bank Group (WBG) is perceived as a relevant development partner in Saudi Arabia, with stakeholders recognizing its alignment with the country's development priorities and effectiveness in achieving results [18][20][21] - Education is identified as the top priority area for WBG's focus, followed by private sector development and skills development [25][26] - Stakeholders express a desire for increased collaboration between the WBG and the private sector, as well as academia, to enhance development outcomes [36][37] Summary by Sections Overall Attitudes Toward the World Bank Group - Stakeholders generally view the WBG positively regarding its alignment with Saudi Arabia's development priorities and its effectiveness in shaping development policy [18][19] - Familiarity with the WBG is notably low among respondents, indicating a need for improved outreach and communication [21] World Bank Group's Support for Development Areas - Approximately 40% of respondents prioritize education as the key area for WBG's resource allocation, with private sector development and skills development also highlighted [25][26] World Bank Group's Engagement on the Ground in Saudi Arabia - The WBG is seen as a long-term partner, with high ratings for openness and flexibility, but lower ratings for accessibility and responsiveness [29][30] - Collaboration with the national government is perceived as the most effective, while engagement with civil society and media is rated lower [33][34] World Bank Group's Knowledge Work - Advisory services and knowledge products are considered the most valuable contributions of the WBG to Saudi Arabia [41][42] - There is a call for increased availability of advisory services and better alignment of knowledge work with the local context [44][45] The Future Role of the World Bank Group in Saudi Arabia - Respondents suggest that the WBG should focus on key development areas and enhance collaboration with local experts to improve effectiveness [49][50] - Increased engagement with the private sector and civil society is also recommended to foster better partnerships [50] Communication and Outreach - Direct contact with WBG staff and events are preferred channels for communication, with a significant portion of respondents recalling recent information about the WBG through social media [54][56] - The WBG's economic forecasts and research on poverty and human capital are among the most recalled topics [59][60]
通过社交媒体上的社交和行为改变沟通策略减少新冠肺炎疫苗犹豫(英)2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-03 06:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The COVID-19 pandemic has led to approximately 6.88 million reported deaths and 14.83 million excess deaths globally, highlighting the need for effective vaccine communication strategies to address vaccine hesitancy, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) [6][14] - The Alliance for Health Online (AHO) and the World Bank's Mind, Behavior, and Development (eMBeD) Unit developed a global research program leveraging social media and behavioral science to diagnose barriers to vaccine uptake and promote effective communication strategies [7][21] - The program reached 230,000 respondents across 25 countries, supporting an estimated $700 million in World Bank vaccine operations [8][65] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The pandemic exacerbated global inequalities and vaccine hesitancy was a major driver of disparities in vaccine coverage, especially in LMICs [6][14] - The AHO and World Bank's program aimed to address these issues through innovative social media strategies and behavioral insights [7][21] Project Overview - The research program launched in January 2021 with a budget of $2 million, focusing on understanding and tackling vaccine hesitancy [23] - Key activities included rapid diagnostics, message testing, and capacity building for behaviorally informed communications [24][25] Impacts - The project achieved significant impacts, with 91% of World Bank project leads finding the support effective and 82% indicating a likelihood to apply behavioral insights in future projects [9][67] - The use of social media for data collection proved to be fast and economical, with Facebook data showing comparable results to other survey modalities [10][83] Lessons Learned - Social media can facilitate rapid data collection and testing, providing valuable insights for policymakers [83] - Chatbots enhance engagement and improve survey completion rates, demonstrating the potential for interactive interventions [85] Recommendations for Future Projects - Investment in digital tools and continuous training for governments is crucial to enhance the effectiveness of health communication strategies [99][100] - Future projects should prioritize adaptive risk communication strategies and preemptive approaches to misinformation [101][102] Next Steps - The report suggests developing AI-powered tools for personalized guidance in Social and Behavioral Change Communication (SBCC) interventions [110]
道路安全背景下统计生命的价值:一种新的价值转移方法(英)2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-03 06:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The value of a statistical life (VSL) is crucial for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in road safety and socio-economic cost calculations of road crashes, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) where specific VSL estimates are often lacking [2][9] - A new value transfer approach is proposed to estimate VSL in countries without specific data, utilizing income elasticities to adapt VSL estimates from other countries [5][12] - The study emphasizes the need for more VSL research in LMICs, highlighting the limited number of existing studies [5][31] Summary by Sections Methodology - A unit value transfer approach is utilized, determining a base VSL from 32 countries to estimate VSL in other nations based on income per capita [3][4] - The resulting VSL transfer functions are defined for LMIC and high-income countries (HIC), with specific equations relating VSL to Gross National Income (GNI) per capita [4][31] Results - The VSL for LMIC ranges from approximately 22,000 USD to 1.1 million USD, while for HIC it ranges from 1.2 million USD to 4.8 million USD [4][25] - The mean VSL is reported as 2.6 million USD, with significant variation observed between LMIC and HIC [23][28] Recommendations - The report recommends applying the new VSL transfer approach for CBA in countries lacking appropriate country-specific VSL, and suggests developing transfer functions for non-fatal injuries [5][33] - Future research should focus on increasing the number of VSL studies in LMIC, particularly in low-income countries [31][35]
评估伯利兹数据驱动决策的统计需求:伯利兹统计研究所统计需求评估摘要(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-03 06:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under review Core Insights - The Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) has made significant progress in developing its statistical infrastructure, with an overall Statistical Performance Indicator (SPI) score of 65.1 in 2023, up from 47.7 in 2016, indicating a 36.58% improvement [12][13] - Key priorities for SIB include developing the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS), integrating administrative data, and addressing resource constraints to enhance its capacity as a data producer and coordinator [10][31] Summary by Sections National Context - Belize's NSS is evaluated using the World Bank's SPI, which assesses data use, services, products, sources, and infrastructure, with scores ranging from 0 to 100 [11] - Belize's SPI score of 65.1 indicates substantial progress, nearing the average of other countries in the LAC region but still below upper middle-income countries [12] Findings - The SIB's self-assessment revealed a moderate performance across most components of the Global SNA, with a score of 2.85 out of 4 [21] - The strongest area identified was human resources, while data collection and openness were the weakest [21] Data Producers - SIB produces 50% of relevant statistical data, excelling in censuses and surveys but lacking in administrative data integration [22][24] - Recent innovations in poverty statistics have improved data collection frequency [25] Coordinators - SIB has the authority to coordinate the NSS but lacks a standardized mechanism for data collection across agencies [27] - The NSDS is being developed to address coordination gaps [27] Promoters of Data Use - SIB publishes statistics on various sectors, including poverty and health, but lacks comprehensive analysis on business activities and national accounts [28] Capacity - SIB demonstrates strong capacity in human resources and data dissemination, but there is room for improvement in public data access [29][30] Priorities - Key priorities include finalizing the NSDS, integrating administrative data, and ensuring personnel and infrastructure needs are met [31] Conclusion and Action Plan - To enhance its role, SIB must build on existing structures and implement strategic actions derived from the assessment [32] Priority Actions for Improvement - Develop and validate the NSDS, leverage technology for data generation, and onboard additional human resources to improve data collection coordination [33][34]