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波哥大土地价值捕获:估价税案例研究(英)2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-09 06:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - Bogotá has utilized the valorization levy as a mechanism to finance urban transport projects, capturing increased land value resulting from infrastructure improvements [13][14] - The report highlights the historical context and legal framework that has enabled Bogotá to effectively implement land value capture strategies [50][51] - The analysis of various valorization programs from 1995 to 2018 reveals both successes and challenges in financing urban development through this levy [21][62] Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction outlines the significance of land value capture in financing urban growth, particularly in cities with limited public resources [12][20] Literature Review - The economic foundation of land value capture is discussed, emphasizing how transport projects can justify the betterment levy by increasing mobility and land value [26][41] - The betterment levy is defined as a one-time payment by property owners benefiting from infrastructure improvements, contrasting it with recurring property taxes [42][44] Legal Foundations - Colombia's legal framework for valorization dates back to 1921, allowing municipalities to capture value from infrastructure investments [50][51] - The report details the evolution of laws governing the valorization levy and its implementation in Bogotá [53][54] Programs Financed Through the Valorization Levy - The report analyzes five key programs (1995, 2005, 2010, 2013, and 2018) that utilized the valorization levy, detailing their objectives, funding amounts, and outcomes [62][73] - The 2005 Mega Valorization Program is highlighted as a significant initiative, covering a wide range of transport projects across the city [73][74] Evolution of Tax Revenue - The report examines the evolution of tax revenue in Bogotá, including the impact of the valorization levy and congestion charging on overall fiscal health [6][27] - It emphasizes the importance of a well-structured cadaster for effective tax collection and the relationship between property values and the betterment levy [46][48] Lessons for Other Cities - Bogotá's experience with the betterment levy offers valuable lessons for other developing cities seeking to finance transport projects through value-capture instruments [16][21]
交通弹性融资、资源和机会(英)2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-09 06:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transport resilience financing industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the urgent need for investment in resilient transport infrastructure in low- and middle-income countries, with a potential return of US$ 4 for every US$ 1 invested [24] - It highlights the significant gap in adaptation financing, with adaptation finance in 2022 amounting to only US$ 63 billion, compared to US$ 1,150 billion for mitigation finance, indicating a need for increased focus on adaptation efforts [49] - The report outlines a roadmap for mobilizing funding and engaging the private sector to enhance transport resilience, suggesting that innovative approaches and strategic partnerships are essential [20][34] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Transport infrastructure is vulnerable to climate risks, which can lead to severe economic and social impacts [23] - Investing in resilient infrastructure is crucial for adapting to climate change, particularly in developing countries [24] - The report identifies challenges in securing funding for resilience projects, including the difficulty in measuring benefits and the imbalance between mitigation and adaptation financing [26][27] Climate Finance Facilities - The report identifies 42 climate finance facilities, with only a few explicitly prioritizing transport resilience [74][75] - It notes that most facilities offer grants, with limited options for loans or equity [80] Public Funding Mechanisms and Tax Measures - The report reviews 33 public funding mechanisms, finding that while many support the transport sector, few explicitly address resilience [84][90] - It identifies 29 tax measures that could potentially raise revenue for transport resilience investments, including infrastructure levies and carbon taxes [97][99] Barriers, Opportunities, and Interventions for Promoting Private Sector Participation - The report discusses barriers to private sector participation in climate-resilient transport, including the need for better data and transparency [107] - It emphasizes the importance of stakeholder engagement and the need for tailored solutions to promote private sector involvement [107]
全球灾后快速损失评估(GRADE)报告:缅甸地震2025年3月28日(英)
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-09 06:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The total direct economic damage from the March 28, 2025 earthquake in Myanmar is estimated at US$10.97 billion, which is approximately 14 percent of Myanmar's GDP for the financial year 2024/25. The damage estimate ranges between US$6.24 billion and US$15.82 billion due to considerable uncertainty [23][19][21] - The earthquake has significantly impacted over 17 million people, with reported fatalities of 3,655 and over 198,000 displaced individuals. The event is characterized as one of the most impactful seismic occurrences in Myanmar's history [20][56] - The GRADE methodology utilized for damage estimation combines earthquake damage modeling, catastrophe risk modeling, and assessments of capital stock value across various sectors [21][64] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report summarizes the direct economic damage to buildings and infrastructure caused by the earthquake, providing critical insights for response and recovery planning [19] - The assessment does not include losses or needs related to the disaster [19] Introduction - The earthquake struck central Myanmar, affecting key regions including Nay Pyi Taw and Mandalay, during a period of internal conflict and humanitarian crisis [31][32] - The event is noted as the strongest recorded seismic event in Myanmar since 1912 or possibly 1839 [51][29] Damage Estimation Methodology - The GRADE assessment follows a rapid estimation approach to assess direct economic impacts, focusing on physical assets [64] - The methodology includes hazard analysis and exposure modeling to estimate damage accurately [68][70] Key Findings - Residential buildings accounted for the highest damage at US$4.97 billion, followed by non-residential buildings at US$2.63 billion and infrastructure damage at US$3.36 billion [23][24] - Mandalay, Sagaing, and Bago regions were the most severely impacted, representing 82 percent of the total damage [23][24] - Recovery and reconstruction costs are expected to exceed direct damage estimates, necessitating targeted recovery strategies [26] Impacts on Population - Affected households in the most impacted areas could experience consumption losses of up to 25 percent, particularly among socioeconomically vulnerable groups [26] - The earthquake has caused extensive damage to cultural heritage, with over 9,643 religious structures affected [60]
区域就业更新:来自拉丁美洲和加勒比地区劳动力调查的见解(英)2025
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-09 06:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Jobs are a primary mechanism for poverty reduction in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), accounting for two-thirds of the decline during the last period of rapid progress (2009-14) [4] - LAC generated approximately 27 million net new jobs over the past decade, with job growth rates comparable to other global regions [4][30] - The labor market is expected to become less dynamic in 2025 due to downgraded economic growth projections [7] Summary by Sections 1. Trends and Projections - Employment creation and earnings growth were instrumental in reducing poverty rates to prepandemic levels [5] - Labor market performance has stabilized at historical rates of approximately 2 percent year-over-year since Q3 2023 [6] - Job creation is projected to decline slightly to 1.6 percent year-to-year in 2025 [7] 2. Labor Market Structure - The working-age employment rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 58.9 percent in 2024, while unemployment dropped from 8.5 to 6.2 percent [37] - Youth unemployment fell by over 5 percentage points since 2016 but remained high at 14 percent in 2024 [38] - Labor informality rates declined by 2.3 percentage points to 42.1 percent of workers from 2016 to 2024 [52] 3. Labor Incomes - Labor market incomes exhibited limited gains with an annualized growth of 0.3 percent from 2016 to 2019 [61] - In 2024, earnings rose by at least 3 percent across most socioeconomic groups, but workers with low educational attainment experienced only 0.8 percent growth [62] - Gender earnings disparities remained stagnant, with women earning on average about 22 percent less than men [62] 4. Sectoral Reallocations - Structural transformation has been slow, with inconsistent reallocation of workers toward higher-productivity sectors [90] - Employment has shifted toward higher-productivity sectors in some countries like Brazil and Mexico, while others like Argentina and Bolivia have seen increases in low-productivity sectors [93]
利用2021年购买力平价和新的消费数据重新审视全球贫困
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-05 23:10
Investment Rating - The report indicates an upward revision of the international poverty line to $3.00 per person per day in 2021 purchasing power parities (PPPs), reflecting a significant increase of around 40% from the previous line of $2.15 [12][44]. Core Insights - The report highlights that recent improvements in survey methodologies have led to an increase in measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries, prompting upward revisions of national poverty lines [3][9]. - The net effect of these methodological changes and new survey data has resulted in an increase in global extreme poverty by approximately 125 million people in 2022, with a notable shift of poverty from South Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa [3][13]. - The international poverty line is now based on the median national poverty line of low-income countries, which has been significantly revised due to improved data quality and timeliness [12][66]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the use of updated purchasing power parities (PPPs) and new survey data to establish new poverty lines for global poverty monitoring [7]. Data - The analysis incorporates 2021 PPPs and over 2,400 income and consumption surveys from 172 countries, covering more than 97% of the global population [28][30]. Setting Poverty Lines - The international poverty line is defined as the median harmonized poverty line of low-income countries, now set at $3.00, with corresponding lines for lower-middle and upper-middle-income countries updated to $4.20 and $8.30, respectively [40][41]. Changes in Global Poverty Lines - The report identifies four main sources of changes in global poverty lines: price changes from PPPs and CPIs, underlying national poverty lines, income classification changes, and the number of countries with available data [59][60]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the increase in the international poverty line is primarily driven by new poverty lines from low-income countries, reflecting improved survey methodologies rather than an increase in poverty aspirations [66].
约束下的产业政策
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-05 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under study Core Insights - The export promotion policy in Pakistan, specifically the Duty Drawback of Taxes (DDT) scheme, had a small overall impact on textile exports but caused significant reallocation among products, favoring traditional garments eligible for higher rebate rates [4][10][11] - For every US$1 spent on the DDT scheme, only US$1.1 in additional exports was generated, indicating limited effectiveness [10][41] - The scheme led to strategic misreporting at the border, although this had a minor overall impact on recorded exports [11][62] Summary by Sections Introduction - The paper discusses the shift in industrial policy from protectionist to export-oriented strategies, highlighting the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of export promotion policies [8][9] Export Promotion and Performance - The DDT scheme is a key export promotion policy for Pakistan's textile sector, which constitutes 55% of total exports. The budget for the scheme increased significantly post-2014, reaching about 1% of the total federal budget during 2017-2020 [9][20][25] Data and Methodology - The study employs product-level data and synthetic control methods to analyze the impact of the DDT scheme, comparing eligible and non-eligible products [9][27][35] Results - The DDT scheme resulted in a 1.9% average annual increase in textile exports from 2015 to 2019, primarily driven by high-rate garment exports, while lower-rate and non-eligible products experienced a decline [41][44] - The overall effect of the scheme was small, with significant negative impacts on lower-rate products counterbalancing the positive effects on higher-rate products [41][44] Mechanisms and Additional Results - The analysis indicates that shifts in the composition of exporters, with new entrants less likely to focus on lower-rate products, contributed to the observed export changes [52][54] - Capacity constraints faced by firms limited their ability to expand exports of high-rate products without reducing lower-rate product exports [55][61] - The report suggests that larger exporters benefited more from the DDT scheme, while smaller exporters faced challenges due to increased competition [61]
高等教育中的人工智能革命
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-05 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The integration of AI in higher education is transforming learning, teaching, and institutional operations, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) [15][16] - AI tools are enhancing educational access, efficiency, and equity, but adoption remains fragmented due to infrastructure gaps and limited innovation [15][17] - The report emphasizes the need for strategic investments in AI research, faculty training, and improved digital infrastructure to fully realize AI's potential [17][21] Summary by Sections I. Executive Summary - AI is revolutionizing higher education by providing scalable and personalized solutions [15] - AI-powered tools have shown significant impacts, such as a 20% increase in student placement efficiency and a 38% improvement for under-assigned students [16][22] - The report identifies critical barriers to AI adoption, including the digital divide and ethical concerns [17] II. Introduction - Higher education in LAC has expanded significantly, with enrollments increasing from 21 million in 2009 to over 31 million in 2023 [28] - The number of universities has grown from 75 in 1950 to approximately 1,867 today [29] III. Students-Centered Tools - AI Tutoring Systems (AITS) and adaptive learning platforms are key innovations that personalize education [57] - A Harvard study found that students using AI tutors learned more than twice as much in less time compared to traditional classrooms [60] IV. Faculty-Centered Tools and Practices - Faculty members see AI as an opportunity, with 86% believing they will use AI in teaching in the future [87] - AI can enhance teaching effectiveness and streamline instructional practices [88][89] V. Staff-Centered Institutional Tools and Practices - AI applications support resource allocation, predict enrollment trends, and enhance institutional efficiency [23] - AI-driven student profiling can identify at-risk students and enable early interventions [23] VI. Challenges - The report outlines several challenges, including infrastructure and access barriers, teacher preparedness, and ethical frameworks [30][31] - Concerns about algorithmic bias and data privacy are highlighted as critical issues [34][35] VII. Conclusion - The report calls for a collaborative approach among governments, universities, and the private sector to foster an innovation-friendly environment [21] - Emphasizes the importance of ethical AI governance to ensure equitable access and build trust [26]
突尼斯经济监测,2025年春季
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-04 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Tunisian economy or specific sectors within it. Core Insights - The Tunisian economy grew by 1.4 percent in 2024, recovering from zero growth in 2023, but remains below pre-Covid levels, indicating a divergence from regional peers [18] - The current account deficit (CAD) decreased to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2024, down from 2.3 percent in 2023, easing some pressure on external financing needs [19] - Domestic financing of public debt has increased significantly, raising concerns about the sovereign-banking nexus and its potential impact on the credit market [21] - Inflation moderated to 5.6 percent in April 2025, aligning with pre-Covid averages, although food inflation remains higher at 7.3 percent [23] - The budget deficit decreased from 6.3 percent of GDP in 2023 to 5.8 percent in 2024, but tax revenues underperformed due to limited economic activity [24] - Future growth is projected at 1.9 percent in 2025, assuming improved rainfall and a recovery in the manufacturing sector, but risks remain elevated [25][26] - Improved port connectivity and trade facilitation could yield significant economic gains, potentially increasing GDP by 4-5 percent within 3-4 years [27][28] Recent Economic Developments - The economy's growth was driven by a partial recovery in agriculture and tourism, but hindered by challenges in oil, mining, and manufacturing sectors [18] - The trade deficit widened by 10.9 percent in 2024, remaining stable at 11.4 percent of GDP, with a significant deterioration in early 2025 [19] - Tunisia's reliance on domestic sources for external financing is increasing, with the Central Bank authorized to lend up to 7 billion dinars (4.1 percent of GDP) to the government in 2025 [20] - The share of domestic debt in total debt rose from 29.7 percent in 2019 to 53.8 percent in 2024, indicating a shift in financing dynamics [21] Inflation and Budgetary Pressure - Inflation has moderated, with food prices remaining a concern due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [23] - The budget continues to face pressure, with a decline in the wage bill and limited growth in public expenditures impacting overall fiscal health [24][36] Future Outlook - Moderate growth is expected in 2025-2027, with significant downside risks related to trade uncertainty and external financing conditions [25][26] - Enhancements in port infrastructure and trade facilitation are critical for leveraging Tunisia's strategic location and improving economic performance [27][28]
2024财年阿拉伯联合酋长国国家意见调查报告
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-03 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the World Bank Group's activities in the UAE Core Insights - Stakeholders in the UAE have shown an increasingly positive attitude towards the World Bank Group (WBG), with significant improvements in perceptions of its effectiveness and relevance since the FY18 survey [15][19] - Skills development and climate change are identified as top priorities for the WBG's focus in the UAE, with a notable increase in emphasis on health, gender equity, and digital infrastructure compared to previous years [22][23] Summary by Sections Overall Attitudes Toward the World Bank Group - In FY24, stakeholders rated the WBG's effectiveness in helping the UAE achieve development results at 7.9, a significant improvement from FY18 [15][16] - Familiarity with the WBG and its alignment with development priorities also received higher ratings compared to FY18, although these improvements did not reach statistical significance [15][19] World Bank Group's Support for Development Areas - Approximately 50% of respondents identified skills development as the primary area for WBG focus, with climate change increasing in importance by 13% since FY18 [22] - Health, gender equity, and digital infrastructure development have seen a significant rise in priority among stakeholders [23] Effectiveness of the WBG's Sectoral Support - The WBG's support for debt sustainability received the highest effectiveness ratings, followed by agriculture and food security, and health [27][28] - Perceptions of effectiveness have improved across all areas compared to FY18, although these differences did not reach statistical significance [27] World Bank Group's Engagement on the Ground in the UAE - Respondents rated the WBG as a long-term partner and flexible in adapting to changing circumstances, with mean ratings improving since FY18 [32][33] - Collaboration with the federal government was rated as the most effective, with calls for increased collaboration with academia and the private sector [35][38] World Bank Group's Knowledge Work - The WBG's advisory services and knowledge products were considered the most valuable, with 67% of respondents having utilized its knowledge work [43][46] - Satisfaction with the quality of advisory services has increased, with significant improvements noted in the perception of the WBG's contribution to development results [47][49] The Future Role of the World Bank Group in the UAE - Respondents emphasized the need for the WBG to focus on national-level studies, climate change adaptation, and collaboration with various stakeholders to enhance its effectiveness [51][52][53] Communication and Outreach - Direct contact with WBG staff and events were the preferred channels for communication, with 52% of respondents recalling recent interactions with the WBG [58][60] - Economic forecasts and research on human capital and climate change were frequently recalled topics [63][65]
2024财年沙特阿拉伯王国国家意见调查报告
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2025-06-03 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the World Bank Group's activities in Saudi Arabia Core Insights - The World Bank Group (WBG) is perceived as a relevant development partner in Saudi Arabia, with stakeholders recognizing its alignment with the country's development priorities and effectiveness in achieving results [18][20][21] - Education is identified as the top priority area for WBG's focus, followed by private sector development and skills development [25][26] - Stakeholders express a desire for increased collaboration between the WBG and the private sector, as well as academia, to enhance development outcomes [36][37] Summary by Sections Overall Attitudes Toward the World Bank Group - Stakeholders generally view the WBG positively regarding its alignment with Saudi Arabia's development priorities and its effectiveness in shaping development policy [18][19] - Familiarity with the WBG is notably low among respondents, indicating a need for improved outreach and communication [21] World Bank Group's Support for Development Areas - Approximately 40% of respondents prioritize education as the key area for WBG's resource allocation, with private sector development and skills development also highlighted [25][26] World Bank Group's Engagement on the Ground in Saudi Arabia - The WBG is seen as a long-term partner, with high ratings for openness and flexibility, but lower ratings for accessibility and responsiveness [29][30] - Collaboration with the national government is perceived as the most effective, while engagement with civil society and media is rated lower [33][34] World Bank Group's Knowledge Work - Advisory services and knowledge products are considered the most valuable contributions of the WBG to Saudi Arabia [41][42] - There is a call for increased availability of advisory services and better alignment of knowledge work with the local context [44][45] The Future Role of the World Bank Group in Saudi Arabia - Respondents suggest that the WBG should focus on key development areas and enhance collaboration with local experts to improve effectiveness [49][50] - Increased engagement with the private sector and civil society is also recommended to foster better partnerships [50] Communication and Outreach - Direct contact with WBG staff and events are preferred channels for communication, with a significant portion of respondents recalling recent information about the WBG through social media [54][56] - The WBG's economic forecasts and research on poverty and human capital are among the most recalled topics [59][60]