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工作论文:增值税改革在津巴布韦的财政和分配影响
世界银行· 2025-03-07 11:59
Core Insights - The report analyzes the fiscal and distributional impacts of VAT reform in Zimbabwe, emphasizing the importance of domestic revenue mobilization to create fiscal space and support macroeconomic stability [10][12][50] - The proposed VAT changes are expected to increase VAT revenue by 0.88% of GDP, but they may also lead to a 1.4 percentage point increase in poverty and a 0.14 percentage point rise in inequality [10][50] - The report suggests that any VAT reform must be accompanied by compensatory mechanisms targeting poorer households to mitigate adverse effects [10][14][50] VAT Structure and Proposed Changes - VAT has been a significant revenue source in Zimbabwe since 2009, surpassing income tax as the main contributor to government revenue [16][17] - The current VAT system includes a standard rate of 15%, with specific rates for certain goods, and the government plans to limit VAT exemptions and zero rates primarily to exports [18][22] - The 2024 budget proposes moving many previously exempt basic goods to the standard rate, which could enhance revenue but may adversely affect low-income households [22][25] Data and Methodology - The analysis utilizes data from the 2017 Poverty, Income, Consumption, and Expenditure Survey (PICES) and employs a fiscal impact analysis framework to assess the effects of VAT reform on household distribution [26][33] - The VAT gap is calculated using a supply and use table (SUT) to estimate the difference between potential VAT revenue and actual collections, highlighting both policy and compliance gaps [47][48] Results and Implications - The current VAT efficiency ratio in Zimbabwe has declined from 0.37 in 2012 to 0.29 in 2022, indicating significant policy and compliance gaps [47][48] - The report estimates that the policy gap accounts for 76% of the total VAT gap, suggesting that improving compliance could yield substantial revenue increases [48][49] - The proposed VAT reforms are projected to reduce the VAT gap from 5.62% of GDP in 2022 to an estimated 5.36% in 2024, with a corresponding decrease in the policy gap [50][51]
津巴布韦货币政策及汇率政策扭曲的财政成本
世界银行· 2025-03-07 08:04
Core Insights - The report identifies the fiscal costs of Zimbabwe's monetary and exchange rate policy distortions, highlighting three main channels through which these distortions affect tax revenue: the Oliveira-Tanzi effect, the impact of an overvalued official exchange rate on import duties, and the weakening of overall tax revenue due to informalization [9][11][34]. - It is estimated that from 2020 to 2023, high inflation and exchange rate distortions resulted in a loss of over $3 billion to the Zimbabwean treasury, indicating that stabilizing prices and eliminating exchange rate distortions could significantly enhance government revenue and help close the fiscal financing gap [9][11]. Group 1: Overview of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Distortions - Zimbabwe's macroeconomic instability is largely driven by high inflation, exchange rate distortions, and a challenging business environment, which have increased business costs and led to insufficient investment and a rise in informal activities [11][12]. - The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has engaged in quasi-fiscal operations (QFOs) that involve printing money to finance government and state-owned enterprises, contributing to rapid money supply growth and subsequent inflation [18][19]. - The report notes that the RBZ's actions have led to a significant increase in the money supply, with reserve money growth exceeding 1800% in 2023, and an inflation rate around 700% [11][12]. Group 2: Channels of Fiscal Cost - The first channel, the Oliveira-Tanzi effect, indicates that inflation-related payment delays reduce the real value of tax revenues, leading to significant losses in government income [34][38]. - The second channel involves the loss of customs revenue due to an overvalued official exchange rate, which results in lower import duty collections [34][45]. - The third channel highlights how exchange rate controls and high parallel market premiums push businesses into the informal sector, further eroding formal tax revenues [34][30]. Group 3: Methodology and Data - The report employs a multi-method approach to quantify the fiscal impact of monetary and exchange rate policy distortions on government revenue, focusing on the period from 2020 to 2023 [36][37]. - Data sources include monthly tax revenue figures, inflation rates, and informal sector size, with a particular emphasis on the relationship between inflation and the informal economy [36][47]. - The analysis utilizes a vector autoregression (VAR) model to predict the impact of inflation on the informal economy, allowing for a nuanced understanding of the relationship between these variables [46][47].
评估加速技术的手段监控与报告的过程验证排放减少项目
世界银行· 2025-03-07 08:03
Core Insights - The report evaluates the potential technologies to accelerate the Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) processes for regional REDD+ programs, focusing on improving efficiency, accuracy, scalability, and timeliness through innovative tools [23][24][29] - Current MRV processes under REDD+ programs are lengthy and complex, leading to delays in emission verification and climate funding acquisition [24][30] - The report identifies significant challenges including inconsistencies in methodologies across countries, high costs, and reliance on optical imagery, which complicate the measurement of emission factors and activity data collection [25][30] Summary by Sections Background - The report highlights the lengthy MRV cycles under the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and the BioCarbon Fund Sustainable Forest Landscapes Initiative (ISFL), which can take years to implement even in technically capable countries [28][29] - It emphasizes the need for a more efficient MRV process to enable stakeholders to effectively respond to greenhouse gas emission drivers and access climate financing [28][30] Challenges in MRV Processes - Major challenges include the high costs and long timeframes associated with current methodologies, as well as the over-reliance on optical satellite imagery, which can lead to delays in activity data production [25][30] - The integration of activity data with emission factors is complex, involving challenges in data collection, storage, processing, and compliance with reporting standards [25][34] Proposed Solutions - Suggested solutions include data management tools to reduce MRV timeframes and technologies such as LiDAR, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and high-resolution satellite imagery to improve consistency and accuracy [26][29] - Innovative data collection methods like ground laser scanning, UAV laser scanning, and aerial laser scanning are recommended to enhance the quality of in-situ data and improve biomass estimates [26][53] Digital Architecture Solutions - The report proposes a centralized cloud service combined with a decentralized "data lake" platform to address data integration challenges [39][72] - It emphasizes the need for a robust data management solution that can handle large volumes of data while ensuring security and accessibility [72][76] Implementation and Testing - The report outlines the collaboration with various institutions to test technologies suitable for each stage of the MRV cycle, aiming to reduce implementation costs and improve data quality [48][53] - It discusses the importance of high-quality field data for calibrating estimates and overcoming challenges related to remote sensing data [51][52]
在布基纳法索映射影响:国家层面的适应性社会保护计划在萨赫勒地区的影响
世界银行· 2025-03-07 07:59
Group 1: Impact of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) - ASP programs in the Sahel region significantly improve household welfare and food security for the poorest and most vulnerable populations, enhancing their resilience to shocks[1] - The PFS-BNS project, implemented from 2014 to 2024, has improved household income, asset ownership, savings, and child nutrition and education outcomes for vulnerable groups[5] - Direct cash transfers under the PFS-BNS project increased household total assets by 32% and informal savings by 65%[7] Group 2: Long-term Benefits and Resilience - Households receiving direct cash transfers experienced a 15% increase in agricultural income, leading to sustained income growth 16 months post-project[6] - The program improved school enrollment rates for children aged 6-15 by 14.3% and increased the likelihood of completing any level of education by 14.8%[11] - Beneficiaries reported a 2.5-fold increase in perceived social status, with 7.5% believing they lived better than the average citizen post-implementation[12] Group 3: Gender and Economic Empowerment - The program provided productive inclusion measures to 21,265 beneficiaries, primarily women, enhancing their income and savings capabilities[10] - Women beneficiaries saw a 37% increase in non-agricultural annual income and a 75% increase in days engaged in non-farm income-generating activities[13] - Savings groups participation increased by 251%, and business assets rose by 94%, demonstrating enhanced resilience against climate shocks[14]
Guidance Note on Designing and Implementing Quality Early Learning Environment Principles in Low-and Middle-Income Countries
世界银行· 2025-03-06 23:10
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the education sector in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) Core Insights - Strengthening the learning environment in Early Childhood Education (ECE) is essential for enhancing children's learning experiences, characterized by dynamic opportunities for interaction, collaboration, and exploration [1][8] - Quality early learning environments are crucial for children's physical, cognitive, and social-emotional development, with evidence showing that sufficient quality leads to effective learning outcomes [7][8] - The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive needs assessments to identify quality gaps in ECE settings and inform targeted enhancements [2][4] Summary by Sections Principles of Quality Early Childhood Education Environments - Five foundational principles for quality ECE environments include overall safety, pedagogical organization, spatial flexibility, empowerment and authorship, and child-centered design [11][12] Importance of Quality Early Learning Environments - Quality ECE environments motivate teaching and learning opportunities, stimulating playful learning and supporting interactions among children and educators [8][9] Main Elements of Quality in ECE Settings - Structural quality encompasses physical environments, adult-to-child ratios, and workforce qualifications, while process quality relates to learning experiences, activities, and interactions [16][17] - Recommended adult-to-child ratios are 1:9 for children under three years and 1:10-1:15 for children above three years [19] Supporting Structural and Process Quality - Physical spaces should facilitate quality principles, ensuring safety and accessibility for all children, including those with disabilities [22][24] - Teaching materials should be multipurpose, developmentally appropriate, and culturally relevant, with an emphasis on hands-on experiences [42][45] Daily Routine and Learning Activities - A well-structured daily routine provides learning opportunities, with activities designed to engage children and promote social interaction [51][52] - Learning corners allow children to choose activities, fostering independence and decision-making [62] Key Considerations for Policymakers - Policymakers should conduct assessments of current learning environments, develop multi-year plans, establish minimum quality standards, prioritize educator training, and engage parents and communities in enhancing ECE settings [79][84][89][90][96]
从巴基斯坦学到的经验:收集准确的资料-关于亲密伴侣暴力
世界银行· 2025-03-06 12:04
Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges in accurately measuring intimate partner violence (IPV) due to concerns over anonymity and privacy, particularly in rural areas with high illiteracy rates [3][8][33] - The study demonstrates that using audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) significantly increases the disclosure of IPV, with reported rates rising by 41% to 57% when sensitive questions are asked privately first [11][34] Summary by Sections Introduction - Accurate data collection on IPV is difficult due to fear, shame, and stigma associated with reporting, especially in face-to-face interviews where anonymity is lacking [8][33] - Self-administered surveys are impractical in populations with high illiteracy, and privacy concerns are heightened in low-income or rural settings [8][33] Methodology - The research involved modifying existing measurement tools to better fit the context of rural poverty and conducting two experiments: one to assess understanding and another to compare the effects of ACASI versus face-to-face interviews on IPV reporting [9][10][33] - The study was conducted with over 6,000 currently married women from rural poor households in Punjab, Pakistan, with a high illiteracy rate of 93% among participants [13][33] Key Findings - Despite high illiteracy, respondents demonstrated a good understanding of the ACASI method, and the order of response options did not affect reporting outcomes [10][33] - Initial private responses to sensitive questions led to significantly higher subsequent disclosures of IPV in face-to-face interviews, indicating that private questioning can enhance openness and consistency in reporting [11][34] Conclusion - The findings suggest that introducing sensitive topics in a private manner can effectively improve the accuracy of IPV data collection, with the study showing a notable increase in reported IPV incidents when using ACASI first [34][33]
优先级3:将城市打造为经济增长和经济包容的发动机
世界银行· 2025-03-05 11:05
Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to transform cities into engines of economic growth and inclusivity, highlighting that urbanization is not inherently a driver of inclusive growth [10][25][26] - South Africa faces significant urban mobility challenges, with limited connectivity and high transportation costs disproportionately affecting low-income workers [16][20][21] - The report outlines a framework of ten actions and 24 short-term recommendations aimed at addressing urban transport and development issues, with a focus on immediate relief and long-term reform [18][19][36] Group 2 - Priority actions include improving passenger rail performance, enhancing the efficiency and affordability of minibus taxis, and redirecting urban planning policies towards higher density development [42][43][44] - The report identifies the need for public-private partnerships to enhance the performance of the passenger rail system and integrate minibus taxis into the urban transport network [43][45][56] - It highlights the importance of adjusting zoning and land use regulations to encourage development closer to commercial areas and to promote financial support for strategic projects [12][19][66] Group 3 - The report notes that high transportation costs significantly impact low-income workers, with commuting expenses consuming a large portion of their income [20][27][34] - It discusses the historical context of urban mobility issues in South Africa, linking them to the legacy of apartheid and inadequate investment in public transport systems [17][22][23] - The report stresses the necessity of substantial investment in transport infrastructure and urban development to create more compact and accessible cities [35][64]
通用无障碍建筑规范检查清单
世界银行· 2025-03-05 11:05
公共披露授权 公共披露授权 公共披露授权 公共披露授权 通用无障碍建筑规范检查清单 B 结构韧性建筑规范检查清单 电梯按钮带有盲文。© Pyrosky 通用无障碍建筑规范检查清单 2025 国际复兴开发银行 / 世界银行 1818 H Street NW, 华盛顿,D.C. 20433 电话:+1-202-473-1000;互联网:www.worldbank.org 某些权利保留。 这项工作是世界银行和全球减少灾害风险与恢复设施(GFDRR)工作人员的成果。本工作中表达的研究发现、解读和结论并不 necessarily反 映世界银行、其执行董事会或他们所代表的政府的观点。世界银行不对本工作中包含的数据的准确性、完整性或时效性做出保证,也不对信息 中存在的任何错误、遗漏或不一致或因使用或未能使用所述信息、方法、程序或结论而承担任何责任。本工作中显示的任何地图上的边界、颜 色、符号和其他信息均不表示世界银行对任何领土的法律地位做出任何判断,也不表示对这些边界的认可或接受。 本文件内容不得构成、被解释或视为对世界银行特权和豁免权之限制或放弃,所有这些特权和豁免权均予以特别保留。 权利与许可。 本作品受版权保护。由于 ...
优先级1:提高公共支出对包容性增长的影响
世界银行· 2025-03-05 10:58
公共披露授权 南非政策方案 公共披露授权 公共披露授权 优先级1 公共披露授权 提高公共支出对包容 性增长的影响 © 2024 国际重建与发展银行 / 世界银行 1818 H Street NW, 华盛顿特区,哥伦比亚 特区 20433 电话:202-473-1000;互联网:www.worldbank.org 适应性—— 如果您对这部作品进行改编,请添加以下免责声明并与归属一同注明:这是由世界银行原创作品的改编 。改编中表达的观点和意见是改编者或改编者们的独家责任,并不代表世界银行的观点。 一些权利保留。 第三方内容— 世界银行并不必然拥有该作品中所包含的每个组成部分。因此,世界银行不保证作品中所包含的任何 第三方拥有的个体组成部分或部分的使用不会侵犯第三方的权利。由此侵权行为产生的索赔风险完全由您承担。如果 您希望重新使用作品的某个组成部分,您有责任确定是否需要为此使用获得许可,并从版权所有者那里获得许可。组 成部分的例子可以包括但不限于表格、图表或图像。 此研究是世界银行工作人员及外部贡献者的成果。该工作中表达的研究成果、解释和结论并不必然反映世界银行、其 执行董事会的观点,或代表其政府部门。世界银行不 ...
方法论文:世界银行集团对撒哈拉以南非洲电力获取支持效果评估(2015–24年)
世界银行· 2025-03-05 10:58
方法论文 世界银行集团对撒哈拉以南非洲电力获取支持效果评估 (2015–24年) 2025年2月19日 1. 背景 i Context 1.1 本评估评估了世界银行集团在2015-24年期间对支持撒哈拉以南非洲地区电力接入所 做的贡献。电力接入是指最终用户使用能源供应来获取所需能源服务的能力。因此,电 力接入包括供应和需求因素。 1 本评估基于2015年独立评估组(IEG)对该同一主题的 评估(世界银行2015),但聚焦于撒哈拉以南非洲,因为主要电力接入差距仍存在于该 区域,并且世界银行集团已经恢复了至2030年填补差距的努力。 1.2 提高可靠、可持续和经济的电力接入对于改善人类福祉和提升生产力至关重要。电 力接入能够推动教育、医疗保健、清洁水、通信、金融服务和收入生成等方面的变革性 变化,同时增强安全感和减少贫困。提供可靠、可持续和经济的能源接入是创造一个无 贫困、提高生产力和支持经济发展的世界条件的一步(Bhatia和Angelou 2015)。 1.3 电力获取可通过扩大电网或通过非电网方式进行。传统的电力电网包括网络化发电、 传输和配电设施,通常由公用事业公司管理。非电网电气化通过分散的网络系统(微 ...