Investment Rating - The investment rating for Innovent Biologics is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$74.95, indicating a downside potential of 11.4% from the current price of HK$84.60 [9]. Core Insights - Innovent Biologics is focusing on a multi-channel strategy for the launch of mazdutide, targeting hospitals, offline healthcare providers, and online pharmacies to maximize market reach [5][6]. - The company aims to build a competitive barrier for mazdutide through its dual-target mechanism and plans for new indication expansions, including Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) approval expected in the second half of 2025 [6][8]. - Innovent is prioritizing the clinical development of IBI363, with plans to advance multiple indications into registrational trials and a preference for co-development with multinational corporations to enhance its global presence [8]. - The company's go-global strategy is viewed as a long-term process, with a commitment to invest in assets with global potential while maintaining profitability in the China market [8]. Summary by Sections Multi-Channel Coverage for Mazdutide - Innovent has initiated a multi-channel coverage strategy for mazdutide, with the first product batch shipped shortly after approval. The strategy includes targeting hospitals, offline healthcare providers, and online pharmacies [5]. - Management expressed confidence in market demand based on pre-launch feedback and sufficient supply preparation [5]. Competitive Landscape - The pricing strategy for mazdutide positions it at a premium compared to competitors, with a focus on dual-target differentiation and plans for expanding indications [6]. Maximizing Potential of IBI363 - IBI363 is a key focus for Innovent, with plans to advance three priority indications into registrational trials. The company emphasizes quick clinical progress and seeks co-development partnerships to maximize value [8]. Go-Global Strategy - Innovent's go-global strategy is a long-term approach, with plans to invest in assets with global potential while ensuring profitability in the domestic market [8].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Sell" rating on Flat A/H, Xinyi Solar, and Tongwei, while it has a "Buy" rating on Longi [10][11][19]. Core Insights - The recent rally in share prices for Solar Glass and Poly is seen as an overreaction to supply-side policy expectations, with a noted average increase of 17% from June 30 to July 2 [1][2]. - There is an anticipated decline in demand for solar modules, with projections indicating a year-over-year decrease of 57% in China and 40% globally for the second half of 2025 [2]. - The report highlights the need for significant production cuts in the glass segment to balance supply and demand, estimating that a 30% cut is necessary given the current oversupply situation [5][6]. Summary by Key Sub-segments Poly - Poly inventory reached 140GW by the end of June, equating to four months of average demand, indicating significant oversupply [5]. - The report anticipates a 15% decline in poly prices in the second half of 2025 to 2026, driven by excess capacity [20]. Glass - A 30% production cut is deemed necessary to align supply with demand, with current monthly supply at 50GW against an average demand of 34GW [6]. - The report suggests that the industry may face prolonged margin pressure due to challenges in executing production cuts [6]. Module - Increased inventory pressure is expected to enhance the bargaining power of module manufacturers, leading to price discounts of 5%-10% on contracts for Poly and Glass [6]. - Longi is expected to maintain a relatively resilient profitability outlook due to anticipated upstream price cuts [7]. Company-Specific Insights Longi - Longi is rated "Buy" due to its potential EBITDA inflection in the second half of 2025 and superior mid-cycle return on equity (ROE) compared to peers [7][10]. - The 12-month target price for Longi is set at Rmb19.8, indicating a potential upside of 27.2% from the current price [10]. Xinyi Solar - Xinyi Solar is rated "Sell" due to a deteriorating industry landscape and structural margin pressures, with a target price of HK$1.9, reflecting a downside of 31.2% [11][12]. Flat A/H - Flat A/H is also rated "Sell," with a target price of Rmb10.3, indicating a downside of 39.1% [15][16]. Tongwei - Tongwei is rated "Sell" due to its high exposure to the Poly segment and anticipated structural margin pressures, with a target price of Rmb13, suggesting a downside of 27% [19][23].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses the impact of trade policy uncertainty on economic activity, suggesting a smaller-than-feared drag on growth [5][34]. Core Insights - Trade policy uncertainty (TPU) rose significantly after President Trump's election but has recently decreased, with little evidence of a substantial negative impact on global economic activity [3][6]. - Investment, manufacturing employment, and consumer spending have remained stable, indicating that the anticipated slowdown due to TPU has not materialized as expected [12][34]. - The report highlights that trade-exposed investment constitutes a small portion of GDP, which may explain the limited observable effects of TPU on overall economic performance [21][22]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy Uncertainty - Trade policy uncertainty increased after the election but has since pulled back, with indices remaining elevated yet showing no significant drag on growth [2][4]. - Historical data suggests that the impact of TPU peaks shortly after its increase, implying that any slowdown in growth should have already occurred [3][5]. Economic Activity - Despite initial fears, indicators of investment and overall activity have followed prior trends, with forecasts for growth in Q2 and the full year improving [12][34]. - The report notes that the frontloading of US imports may have masked some of the uncertainty's effects, but even after accounting for this, the drag from TPU appears limited [16][17]. Statistical Analysis - Statistical analyses indicate that uncertainty primarily affects growth through its interaction with financial conditions, with easing financial conditions since early 2025 potentially dampening the impact of uncertainty [26][27]. - The report presents regression results showing that while uncertainty has a small negative effect on activity, the combination of tighter financial conditions and increased uncertainty creates a significant drag on growth [27][29]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates that while tariffs may slow activity later in the year, this will be driven more by direct impacts rather than uncertainty surrounding trade policy [34].

Investment Ratings - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY): Neutral [6] - Eli Lilly (LLY): Buy [10] - Novartis (NOVN): Neutral [16] - Sanofi (SNY): Neutral [17] - Biogen (BIIB): Buy [20] - Insmed Therapeutics (INSM): Buy [25] - Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ): Buy [29] - MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX): Buy [36] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of idiosyncratic catalysts in the biopharma sector, particularly in the context of macroeconomic volatility and healthcare policy uncertainty [1] - Key catalysts to watch in 3Q25 include pivotal studies from various companies, with a focus on Alzheimer's disease, obesity, Sjogren's syndrome, multiple sclerosis, and gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma [1][5] - The report highlights the potential for significant market opportunities based on upcoming trial results and regulatory approvals, particularly for drugs like Cobenfy, orforglipron, ianalumab, tolebrutinib, and zanidatamab [1][5][10][18][30] Summary by Company Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) - Monitoring Phase 3 data from the Cobenfy ADEPT-2 trial in Alzheimer's disease psychosis, with a primary completion date in July [8] - The trial's success could have implications for a large patient population, with approximately 6 million Alzheimer's patients in the U.S. [8][9] Eli Lilly (LLY) - Focus on the ATTAIN-1 trial for orforglipron in obesity without diabetes, with results expected in July [10] - Anticipated weight loss efficacy in the 12-15% range, with safety and tolerability being key metrics [13] Novartis (NOVN) - Key focus on ianalumab's readouts in Sjogren's syndrome and immune thrombocytopenia, with a potential peak sales opportunity of approximately $2 billion [18] Sanofi (SNY) - Expected data from the Phase 3 PERSEUS trial of tolebrutinib in primary progressive multiple sclerosis, with a primary completion date in July [19] Biogen (BIIB) - Monitoring Leqembi's commercial trajectory in early-onset Alzheimer's disease, with a potential peak sales of approximately $800 million [21] Insmed Therapeutics (INSM) - Regulatory review of brensocatib for bronchiectasis, with a PDUFA date of August 12 [25] - Potential for significant upside if approved with a broad label [27] Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) - Anticipating topline data from the HERIZON-GEA-01 trial for zanidatamab in gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, with a potential peak sales opportunity exceeding $2 billion [30] MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) - Reporting topline results from the Ph. 3 VELA trials for sonelokimab in hidradenitis suppurativa, with expectations for best-in-class efficacy [36]

3 July 2025 | 8:45AM AEST Metals & Mining: Gold Addressing key questions in gold equities Following our initiations on VAU, WGX, PNR (Buy) and GMD, RMS, GGP (Neutral), we look to address key ongoing investor questions on the following key themes across Australian gold equities: Details within. Hugo Nicolaci +61(2)9321-8323 | hugo.nicolaci@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Marcus Dosanjh +61(2)9321-8780 | marcus.dosanjh@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Paul Young +61(2)9321-8302 | paul.young1@gs.c ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the forecast for the next Fed rate cut to September from December, suggesting a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that disinflationary pressures are emerging, with expectations that tariffs will have only a one-time effect on price levels. The labor market remains healthy, but job finding has become more challenging [1]. - The report anticipates two additional 25 basis point cuts in interest rates later in the year, with a terminal rate forecast of 3-3.25% [1]. - The market is beginning to price in faster Fed easing, which could lead to a weaker Dollar and higher gold prices, benefiting equities depending on the growth backdrop [2]. Summary by Sections Earlier Fed Cuts - The forecast for the next Fed rate cut has been moved to September, with expectations of two more cuts in October and December [1]. - The terminal rate is now expected to be between 3-3.25%, down from a previous range of 3.5-3.75% [1]. US and UK Fiscal Policy - The report discusses the potential impact of the Trump Administration's fiscal policy, particularly the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which may enhance foreign investment appetite in the US [8]. - UK fiscal policy is also under scrutiny due to recent selloffs in Gilts, indicating a need for close monitoring [8]. Q2 Earnings Season - The upcoming Q2 earnings season is expected to show S&P 500 firms beating consensus estimates, with insights into how companies are adapting to higher tariffs [8]. - It is assumed that US consumers will absorb 70% of the direct costs of tariffs, but lower pass-through rates could pose risks to corporate margins [8]. Commodities Outlook - Oil markets are pricing a low probability of major supply disruptions, with expectations of falling oil prices due to strong supply growth [8]. - Conversely, gold prices are expected to rise due to increased central bank demand, and US copper prices may also see significant upside due to potential tariffs [8]. SLR Reform - The Fed's supplementary leverage ratio reform is anticipated to benefit banks by providing more flexibility for short-term secured financing and potentially increasing Treasury purchases during stress periods [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper market, forecasting a price of $10,050 per ton for LME copper in August, with potential upside risks due to competition between China and the US for copper supplies [4]. Core Insights - China's refined copper demand has increased by 12% year-to-date as of May, driven by strong domestic demand and a significant rise in solar installations and air conditioning sales [1][39]. - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's refined copper demand growth in the second half of 2025, projecting a 6% growth for the year, influenced by lower exports and declining policy support for renewables and home appliances [1]. - The global copper market is tightening, particularly outside the US, due to increased imports from China and record low inventories [4]. Summary by Sections Price Forecasts - The forecast for LME copper is $9,934 per ton as of July 1, 2025, with expectations of reaching $10,000 in the next three months and $10,750 by 2027 [12]. Copper: Supply & Demand Tracker - Global copper mine production is up 2% year-to-date, with a forecast of a 1% year-over-year increase for the full year 2025 [32]. - World refined copper production has increased by 3% year-to-date, with a forecast of a 2% year-over-year increase for 2025 [34]. Copper: Physical Market Indicators - The report indicates that global visible copper stocks are only partially capturing US stockpiling, suggesting a tighter market [13]. Speculative Positioning - Speculative positioning in the copper market is concentrated due to tariff anticipation and tightening fundamentals outside the US [108].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review is ongoing, with a revised "Statement of Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" expected to be released later this summer [2] - The last framework review in 2020 was influenced by low inflation and concerns about the zero lower bound (ZLB), leading to the adoption of "flexible average inflation targeting" (FAIT) [6][7] - Critics argue that the 2020 changes contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Fed officials have defended these strategies [8] - The FOMC is likely to revert to responding to "deviations" from maximum employment and return to flexible inflation targeting as its main strategy [10][12] - Proposed changes to communication practices include providing alternative economic scenarios and linking individual projections for the economy and interest rates [15][37] Summary by Sections Framework Review - The FOMC will announce changes to its communication practices in the fall, with adjustments likely to the consensus statement [5] - The review aims to address the effectiveness of the current framework in light of recent economic challenges [6] Key Changes from 2020 Review - The 2020 review emphasized responding to "shortfalls" from maximum employment and introduced FAIT, allowing inflation to overshoot 2% [7][8] - The FOMC is expected to reconsider the "shortfalls" language and may adopt a more robust approach to inflation targeting [10][12] Proposed Communication Innovations - Proposal 1: Publishing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and improve market understanding of the Fed's reaction function [16][17] - Proposal 2: Linking individual economic and interest rate projections to provide clearer insights into participants' reaction functions [37][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but indicates expectations for production increases and market stability, suggesting a cautious outlook on investment opportunities in the sector. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have remained stable as market attention shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where an increase in production is anticipated [1][2] - Global visible commercial stocks have increased by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the last three months, indicating a mixed supply-demand balance [3][5] - US crude production reached an all-time high in April but is expected to decline in the following months [5][34] - Gasoline and diesel margins have retreated from mid-June highs but remain elevated due to tight clean product stocks [4][59] Summary by Sections Production and Supply - OPEC+ is expected to announce a production increase of 411 kb/d, with the possibility of further increases after August due to non-OPEC supply growth [1][2] - US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands at 11.1 mb/d, slightly above previous expectations, while Canada liquids production has edged down to 5.7 mb/d [26][32] - OPEC8+ crude and condensate seaborne net exports have increased by 0.2 mb/d year-over-year [37] Demand - Global trackable oil demand nowcast is 0.1 mb/d above its year-ago level, with China oil demand at 16.9 mb/d, reflecting a slight increase [42][45] - OECD Europe oil demand nowcast stands at 13.3 mb/d, indicating a stable demand environment [48] Inventories - OECD commercial stocks nowcast has decreased by 7 mb to 2,755 mb, which is 91 mb below the year-ago level [18][22] - Global commercial stocks have increased by 17 mb, indicating a build-up in inventories [5][14] Prices and Margins - The gap between Brent 1M/36M timespread and its inventory-implied fair value has widened to 14 percentage points, indicating potential pricing pressure [51] - Refining margins in the US Gulf Coast remain supported due to the concentration of refining capacity in the region [4][59] Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could influence oil supply dynamics and market stability [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, Meituan, and PDD, while highlighting JD as a potential multiple repair/re-rating story [14][15][18]. Core Insights - The competition intensity among eCommerce players, particularly Alibaba, JD, and Meituan, in food delivery and instant shopping has escalated, with an estimated aggregate investment of Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) in the June quarter alone [9]. - The report estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb2.4 trillion for food delivery and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and user acquisitions [4][40]. - The ultimate goal for these companies is to become the "everyday app" for transactions, facilitating cross-selling across various goods and services [12][56]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The food delivery competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with Meituan achieving 90 million daily orders and Alibaba's Taobao Instant Commerce reaching 60 million peak daily orders [34]. - The report anticipates a re-acceleration of on-demand eCommerce penetration in China, projecting a TAM of Rmb1.5 trillion by 2030 [35][42]. Financial Projections - The report outlines three scenarios for food delivery and instant shopping, with a base case projecting a 5.5:3.5:1 market share between Meituan, Alibaba, and JD [10][27]. - Estimated losses for Alibaba and JD in food delivery are projected at Rmb-41 billion and Rmb-26 billion, respectively, over the next 12 months [9]. Company-Specific Insights - JD is expected to disproportionately benefit if it stabilizes its food delivery scale, while PDD is positioned to have a more resilient profit setup due to its lack of direct involvement in the food delivery competition [10][18]. - Meituan's strategic pivot towards centralized kitchens aims to enhance food safety and reduce delivery costs, which could improve long-term unit economics [11][54]. User Engagement and Traffic - The report notes a significant increase in daily active users (DAU) for both JD and Taobao, with a combined increase of 50 million DAU to approximately 410 million [12][56]. - The consolidation of offerings into a single app is seen as a strategy to monetize increased engagement from high-frequency food delivery [57].