Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper, predicting a price of $13,000 per ton in Q1 2026 and $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026, while aluminum prices are expected to remain high due to various market factors [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI capital expenditures are driving copper demand towards cyclical industries such as defense, artificial intelligence, electrification, and grid construction, accounting for over 40% of copper demand growth [1][3]. - It is anticipated that there will be a $1 trillion tax refund for U.S. consumers in the first half of 2026, which will significantly impact the market [1][2]. - The U.S. copper tariff policy under Section 232 is expected to be a key factor in the market in the first half of 2025, with a potential 15% tariff on refined copper to be reassessed in mid-2026 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices and aluminum prices have risen over 20% since November 2025, driven by interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion, and AI capital expenditure [2]. - The global copper supply is expected to grow by only about 1% in 2026, with a tightening supply-demand balance as excess supply decreases from 600,000 tons to 300,000 tons [6][7]. - The report notes that while there are disruptions in major mines, overall copper supply remains stable due to new capacities in Africa and Central Asia [6][7]. Demand Trends - The report indicates a significant change in downstream demand due to rising metal prices, with traditional sectors like consumer electronics and hardware manufacturing experiencing a notable decline [5]. - Despite the overall demand slowdown, certain sectors such as the national grid and electric vehicle charging infrastructure may see increased investment, although the actual growth may be limited in the short term [8][9]. Future Projections - The long-term forecast for copper prices is set at $15,000 per ton by 2035, based on supply gap analysis and historical data trends [10]. - The aluminum market is expected to return to a surplus state by 2027, with prices projected to drop to $2,400 per ton [12]. - China's demand for aluminum is expected to grow at a rate of 3%-4% in 2026, which is lower than previous years but still indicates a positive trend [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil shipping industry, particularly for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) and crude oil transportation, anticipating a super cycle driven by geopolitical factors and sanctions on shadow tankers [1]. Core Insights - Global crude oil supply is expected to stagnate in 2024, but will see an increase of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day from non-OPEC countries starting mid-2025, followed by OPEC countries joining the production increase [1][4]. - Geopolitical factors significantly impact the tanker market, with issues such as U.S.-China port fee disputes leading to vessel delays and increased demand asymmetry [2][5]. - China plays a crucial role in global oil reserves, with an expected addition of at least 100 million barrels of storage capacity by mid-2026, which will boost demand for mainstream raw material imports and vessels [1][6]. - High refining margins are prompting regions like the Middle East, India, Japan, and South Korea to activate idle capacities, with a projected net increase of 1 million barrels per day in refining capacity by 2026 [1][8]. - The global oil supply-demand outlook shows uncertainty, with an expected daily surplus of around 1 million barrels in 2026, potentially lasting into 2027 [1][9]. Summary by Sections Current Oil Tanker Market Drivers - Key drivers include the growth in crude oil production and exports, increased transportation distances, and geopolitical factors affecting demand [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil tanker market is characterized by a complex supply-demand situation, with supply growth expected at 3% in 2026, but actual growth at only 2% due to aging fleets [3][10]. - Demand is projected to grow by 6% in 2026, with a slight decrease in growth rate expected in 2027 [10]. Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical events, such as potential sanctions relief on Iranian oil, could shift demand from shadow fleets to mainstream fleets, positively impacting VLCC demand [11][12]. Regional Inventory Behaviors - Japan and South Korea are critical regions, with significant increases in crude oil imports, which will impact global oil demand [13]. Clean vs. Dirty Transportation Analysis - The clean and dirty transportation sectors are highly interchangeable, with expected growth rates of 5% to 5.8% for dirty transportation and 2.1% for clean transportation [14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the software sector, highlighting a significant net selling and shorting activity, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market [7][14]. Core Insights - The software industry has seen a substantial decline in valuation, with forward P/E ratios dropping from 35x at the end of 2025 to 20x currently, indicating a more comparable valuation to other sectors [14]. - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the software sector continues to show strong sales growth relative to other industries, suggesting potential for recovery [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming AI model updates and tools, which may maintain high volatility in sectors perceived to be at risk from AI disruption [10][14]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes that many themes are experiencing high volatility, with the 10-day actual volatility for several indices at the 99th percentile since 2010, indicating a turbulent market environment [4]. - The software sector has been the most shorted and has seen a 55% increase in short positions year-to-date, reflecting investor caution [7]. Valuation Comparisons - Current P/E ratios for various sectors are provided, with the software sector at 26.9x for 2026, significantly lower than the previous year's 50.6x, indicating a major revaluation [9]. - The report highlights that while the software sector's earnings growth remains higher than other sectors, the recent sales growth and profit margins suggest a more reasonable valuation [7][11]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies regional banks as a favorable investment due to benefits from a steepening yield curve and regulatory easing, suggesting a positive outlook for this sector [8][31]. - The UK real estate sector is highlighted as undervalued, with potential for recovery driven by improving earnings momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions [33][34]. Global Themes - The report discusses the importance of domestic manufacturing and national security themes, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts, which may drive investment in these areas [36][40]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is noted as a potential catalyst for market movements, with historical data suggesting strong performance during this period [42].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment towards the technology sector, with a focus on dispersion among stocks, suggesting a cautious but potentially favorable investment environment for select companies [6][18]. Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing significant dispersion, with approximately 50 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index rising over 60% while another 50 stocks have fallen by over 40% since October [6][8]. - Institutional trading has favored selling, particularly in the information technology sector, with hedge funds net selling U.S. stocks for the fourth consecutive week [8][9]. - The forward P/E ratio for the Nasdaq 100 has decreased from 28-29 times in late 2025 to about 24-25 times, indicating a return to more normalized valuation levels [9][11]. - The report highlights strong earnings growth expectations for the information technology and communication services sectors, projecting around double-digit growth in earnings per share (EPS) for the year [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index has shown volatility, with the worst three-day performance since April 2025, yet ended the week nearly flat [5][6]. - Major tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta have seen their prices decline, raising questions about market sentiment and future performance [9][22]. Earnings and Revenue Insights - The report notes that 85% of companies in the information technology sector reported positive surprises in earnings, indicating strong performance relative to expectations [12]. - The anticipated capital expenditures for major tech companies are projected to grow by 65% in 2026, reaching $618 billion, up from previous estimates of $537 billion [18]. Sector-Specific Observations - The software as a service (SaaS) sector is under scrutiny, with investors uncertain about the sustainability of recent rebounds in stock prices [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure trends, particularly for companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, as they navigate through a period of uncertainty regarding profitability and growth [18][22]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable divide in investor sentiment regarding the potential of artificial intelligence and its impact on the tech sector, with some viewing it as a disruptive force while others remain cautious [14][24]. - The report identifies several stocks as controversial, including Uber and Take-Two Interactive, reflecting the ongoing debates about their future performance and market positioning [13][26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the software industry is currently in a bear market, with significant declines in market capitalization and net exposure [1][2]. Core Insights - The software sector has experienced a substantial sell-off, with the Broad Software Basket (GSTMTSFT) losing $2 trillion in value, approximately a 30% drop from its highs [1][5]. - Despite the decline in valuations, the software industry still trades at a 260% premium to the equal-weight S&P 500, consistent with historical averages [6][7]. - Consensus estimates predict a two-year forward revenue growth of 15% for software, which is more than double the 6% revenue growth expected for the median S&P stock [6][7]. Summary by Sections Software Market Performance - The software sector has faced fears of disruption from AI, leading to a significant drop in stock prices, with software stocks down 15% this week alone [5][9]. - The net exposure of software as a percentage of total US net market value has reached a record low of 4.2%, down from 7% at the beginning of 2026 and a historical peak of 17.7% [1][2]. Valuation and Growth Prospects - The price/sales ratio for software has decreased from 9x in September 2025 to 6x currently, indicating a sharp decline in valuations [6][7]. - There are signs of stabilization in leading indicators after four years of worsening trends, suggesting potential benefits from increased enterprise AI investment [14]. Industry Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report highlights a shift in AI project implementations from bespoke custom builds to packaged software offerings as the ecosystem matures [15]. - Evidence of pricing power is emerging as the push for adoption begins to convert into monetization, allowing companies to pass on incremental costs to customers [16]. - The report anticipates that it may take 2-3 quarters of stable fundamentals for investor sentiment to improve, with potential for a recovery in the software sector [9][14].

Investment Rating - The report rates Laopu as a "Buy" while other companies like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook are rated "Neutral," and Chow Tai Seng is rated "Sell" [6]. Core Insights - The jewelry industry in China is expected to experience milder growth in 2026, projected at 4% year-on-year [3]. - Laopu is highlighted as the top pick in the China jewelry sector due to its attractive risk/reward profile compared to luxury and jewelry peers [11]. - The report provides a detailed scenario analysis for Laopu's store productivity and sales forecasts, indicating significant growth potential [10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total retail sales in the jewelry sector are projected to grow at a slower pace, with Laopu's sales expected to reach RMB 7.651 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 212% [10]. - The market share for Laopu in the jewelry sector is anticipated to increase from 0.9% in 2024 to 3.5% by 2026 [10]. Company Analysis - Laopu's market capitalization is approximately USD 18.272 billion, with an average daily turnover of USD 87.4 million [6]. - The pricing range for Laopu's products is set between RMB 10,000 and RMB 50,000, with a fixed price for pure gold ranging from RMB 1,500 to RMB 1,900 per gram [6]. Financial Projections - Laopu's net income is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 7.116 billion by 2026, with a net profit margin of 18% [10]. - The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Laopu's sales of 114% from 2024 to 2026, with a net income CAGR of 120% during the same period [10]. Competitive Landscape - Laopu's product mix is expected to consist of 50% gold and 50% gem-set products by 2024, contrasting with competitors who have a higher percentage of gold products [6]. - The report outlines the competitive positioning of Laopu against other major players in the market, emphasizing its growth trajectory and market share expansion [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the specific company discussed. Core Insights - Kevin Warsh advocates for lowering the federal funds rate, anticipating that government deregulation and artificial intelligence will lead to deflation [3][10] - Warsh has consistently criticized the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies and large balance sheet, which contrasts with the views of current policymakers [3][10] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will not be significantly reduced, as there is strong internal support for the current ample reserves framework [3][14] - Warsh's stance on financial regulation indicates a preference for a more open approach to mergers among smaller banks, arguing that current regulations impose excessive compliance costs [3][15] Economic Outlook - Warsh has expressed concerns about the risk balance facing the U.S. economy, opposing interest rate cuts in the fall of 2024 due to fears that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may prematurely declare victory over inflation [8] - He believes that deregulation policies and potential spending cuts from the Trump administration will suppress inflation, countering any one-time price impacts from tariffs [8] Interest Rate Policy - Warsh's low concern regarding inflation may position him in the dovish camp within the current FOMC policy debates [12] - He argues that the Federal Reserve should reduce interest rates while simultaneously shrinking its balance sheet to mitigate inflationary impacts [12] Federal Reserve Balance Sheet - Warsh's views on the balance sheet diverge significantly from those of current Federal Reserve officials, as he has long criticized the size of the balance sheet and its role in financial markets [13][14] - He argues that the Federal Reserve's large balance sheet contributes to capital misallocation and exacerbates inequality [13] Financial Regulation - Warsh has criticized the current regulatory framework for imposing high compliance costs on banks, particularly disadvantaging smaller institutions [15] - He advocates for a new, reformed regulatory system that would facilitate mergers among smaller banks [15][19]

GS China Econ Proprietary Indicators: February Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind our proprietary economic indicators can be downloaded here (methodology notes available in the appendix). Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, NBS, CEIC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/ ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, particularly in sectors like managed care and software, following a significant market downturn [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in risk appetite, with alternative assets like precious metals and cryptocurrencies suffering due to market misinterpretations of monetary policy [1]. - There has been a notable increase in gross leverage in the U.S. brokerage business, reaching a historical high of 226.2%, while net leverage has decreased significantly [2]. - The technology sector experienced volatility, with mixed earnings reports leading to a focus on software stocks, which saw substantial sell-offs [10][11]. - The consumer sector has underperformed, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting high-frequency data and a shift in capital towards technology and media sectors [13]. - The industrial sector is showing strong performance, with significant gains driven by macroeconomic events and earnings reports, particularly in materials [13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Technology Sector - The Nasdaq 100 index rose approximately 50 basis points, but this did not fully reflect the volatility in prices [10]. - Major tech earnings reports showed mixed results, with Meta rising 10% due to strong revenue guidance, while Microsoft and Apple had less favorable outcomes [10][11]. - Software stocks faced significant selling pressure, with the IGV index dropping 5% and reaching a record trading volume [11]. Consumer Sector - The consumer sector has lagged behind the market for six consecutive days, influenced by adverse weather and capital rotation towards tech [13]. - Despite the overall weakness, many companies in the sector reported solid earnings [13]. Industrial Sector - The industrial sector is experiencing one of its strongest starts since 2019, with materials leading the gains [13]. - Earnings reports have shown a complex trend, with some sectors like chemicals performing well despite mixed news [13]. Financial Sector - The focus has been on mortgage performance, with PFSI's disappointing results leading to significant stock price declines [13].

2 February 2026 | 6:50AM KST Equity Research South Korea Tech: Memory Pricing Tracker: Jan. 2026: 1Q26 DRAM pricing forecast of +90-95% qoq higher than GSe; NAND broadly inline 1Q26 DRAM pricing forecasts across all major applications, as well as for the overall conventional DRAM pricing have been revised up again substantially, where the latter is now at +90-95% qoq (after +45-50% qoq in 4Q25). Note that this is above 1Q26 GSe of +77-82% qoq for Samsung Electronics (SEC) and SK Hynix (Hynix), which we beli ...