Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Zijin-H/A, CMOC-H/A, and MMG [2][45]. Core Insights - Chinese metal demand has shown resilience year-to-date, but growth is largely front-loaded, particularly in renewables and stimulatory consumption from the automotive and appliance sectors [1][19]. - A deceleration in demand growth for copper and aluminum is expected in the second half of 2025, with potential deeper corrections in 2026, particularly for aluminum [1][3]. - The report highlights a potential 1.2% year-on-year growth for copper and a -2.0% decline for aluminum in 2H25E, driven by a slowdown in domestic renewables [3][13]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Total copper demand in China grew by 5% and 14% year-on-year in the first two quarters of 2025, while aluminum demand increased by 4% and 7% [14][17]. - The growth in copper demand is significantly influenced by rush installations in renewables, contributing 70% to the overall growth in 2Q25E [20][24]. - The report estimates that the trade-in program for electric vehicles and air conditioners contributed approximately 0.8% to copper demand growth and 1.2% to aluminum demand growth in 2Q25E [25][27]. Earnings Revisions - Earnings for Chinese copper companies under coverage have been revised down by 7% to up by 21% for 2025E-27E, reflecting updated commodity price forecasts [2][45]. - Target prices for Zijin and CMOC have been adjusted upwards, while MMG's earnings forecast has been revised down by 7% to 17% for the same period [45][46]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a tighter supply situation in the copper market due to a shortage of scrap, which may offset some negative demand outlooks [31][32]. - The ongoing US-China tariff situation has had a less severe impact on metal demand than previously feared, with a shift in production for US-bound shipments to non-China factories [23][29].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies IGO, NST, NEM, CMM, BGL, VAU, WGX, and PNR, while recommending a "Sell" rating for MIN and RRL [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential upside for various companies based on their current pricing and NAV valuations, with IGO showing a 2% downside to its price target and NST having a 14% upside [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold and lithium sectors, with specific companies positioned favorably for growth [4][8]. Company Summaries - **IGO**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.1 billion, current price A$4.32, and a 12-month price target of A$5.03, indicating a 2% downside [4]. - **NST**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$17.4 billion, current price A$18.56, and a 12-month price target of A$22.53, indicating a 14% upside [4]. - **NEM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$66.7 billion, current price A$90.58, and a 12-month price target of A$98.83, indicating a 7% upside [4]. - **CMM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.7 billion, current price A$9.44, and a 12-month price target of A$10.09, indicating a 6% upside [4]. - **BGL**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$0.9 billion, current price A$0.93, and a 12-month price target of A$0.97, indicating a 29% upside [4]. - **MIN**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$3.2 billion, current price A$24.44, and a 12-month price target of A$20.30, indicating an 18% downside [4]. - **RRL**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$2.2 billion, current price A$4.53, and a 12-month price target of A$4.24, indicating a 1% downside [4]. Commodity & FX Forecasts - The report includes forecasts for various commodities, with gold expected to reach US$3,503 per ounce in Q4 2025 and lithium carbonate projected at US$8,005 per ton in 2025 [8]. - Nickel prices are forecasted to stabilize around US$7.17 per pound in Q4 2025, while copper is expected to be around US$4.52 per pound [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Zijin-H/A, CMOC-H/A, and MMG [2][45]. Core Insights - Chinese metal demand has shown resilience year-to-date, but growth is largely front-loaded, particularly in renewables and stimulatory consumption from the automotive and appliance sectors [1][19]. - A deceleration in demand growth for copper and aluminum is expected in the second half of 2025, with potential deeper corrections in 2026, particularly for aluminum [1][3]. - The report highlights a potential 1.2% year-on-year growth for copper and a -2.0% decline for aluminum in 2H25E, driven by a slowdown in domestic renewables [3][13]. Summary by Sections Demand Outlook - Chinese total copper demand grew by 5% and 14% year-on-year in the first two quarters of the year, while aluminum demand increased by 4% and 7% [14][17]. - The growth in copper demand in 2Q25E was significantly influenced by rush installations in renewables, contributing 70% to the overall growth [20][24]. - The stimulatory consumption from the trade-in program for air conditioners and autos contributed an additional 0.8% growth to copper demand [21][25]. Earnings Revisions - Earnings for Chinese copper companies have been revised down by 7% to up by 21% for 2025E-27E, reflecting updated commodity price forecasts [2][45]. - Target prices for Zijin, CMOC, and MMG have been adjusted upwards, with Zijin's target price revised to HK$26.5/Rmb28.5 and CMOC's to HK$9.5/Rmb11.5 [45][46]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a tighter supply situation in the copper market due to a shortage of scrap, which may offset some negative demand outlooks [31][32]. - The ongoing US-China tariff situation has had a lesser impact on metal demand than previously feared, with a shift in production for US-bound shipments to non-China factories [23][29].

4 July 2025 | 9:17AM BST European Economics Analyst EU—Trade Talks With the US: To Deal or Not To Deal (Pierdomenico/Taddei) Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Giovanni Pierdomenico +44(20)7051-6807 | giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/re ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to ASML Holding with a 12-month price target of €910, indicating an upside potential of 34.3% from the current price of €677.60 [10][13]. Core Insights - ASML's growth expectations for 2026 are supported by strong demand for leading-edge Logic and advanced Memory applications, alongside a recovery in trailing-edge spending, with a projected 8% year-over-year top-line growth [3][4]. - The sustainability of AI-related semiconductor demand is viewed positively, with expectations that AI will continue to drive demand for leading-edge chips [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of order intake, noting that ASML requires quarterly orders of €4-5 billion to meet sell-side consensus estimates for 2026 [8]. Summary by Sections Key Drivers of Growth - ASML anticipates growth in 2026 driven by leading-edge Logic, advanced Memory applications (such as HBM), and a recovery in trailing-edge spending [3]. - The demand for advanced Memory remains robust, with Micron increasing its HBM capacity significantly [3][5]. AI Demand Impact - Investors are keen to understand the long-term sustainability of AI-related semiconductor demand, which has seen significant spending in recent years [4]. - Positive indicators from the AI ecosystem suggest a diversification of AI applications, supporting the demand for leading-edge semiconductors [6][7]. Order Cadence - The focus has shifted to the order intake required to meet revenue estimates for 2026, with ASML needing €4-5 billion in quarterly orders [8]. - A sequential improvement in orders could act as a positive catalyst for ASML's shares [8]. Lithography Intensity - There is an increasing interest in the trajectory of Lithography intensity as the industry transitions to Gate-All-Around architecture, with expectations of re-acceleration in layer growth post-transition [8][9]. - ASML's focus on cost-effective solutions is expected to drive growth in EUV layers across Logic and Memory applications [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports Products with a target price of HK$117, based on a 21x 2027E PE discounted back to 2025E, implying a 26% upside from the current price [2][30][22]. Core Insights - Anta Group's performance in June was mixed, with solid group-level topline growth driven by smaller brands and Fila, while the core Anta brand missed expectations. The projected retail sales growth for Anta is expected to decelerate to low single digits (LSD%) year-over-year in 2Q25, while Fila is anticipated to achieve high single digits (HSD%) growth [1][2][21]. - For 1H25, the report projects a 13% year-over-year increase in group sales to RMB 38.2 billion, with smaller brands and Fila performing ahead of the full-year guidance, despite a weaker core performance from Anta [1][3][21]. - The report anticipates a reported net profit of RMB 6.85 billion for Anta Group in 1H25, reflecting an 11% year-over-year decline, but a 12% increase in recurring net profit when excluding non-cash gains from the Amer listing [20][21]. Summary by Sections Sales and Growth Projections - Anta Group is expected to achieve a 13% year-over-year sales growth in 1H25, with specific brand growth rates projected as follows: Anta at 5.5%, Fila at 8.4%, Descente at 44%, and other brands at 69% [3][24][27]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is projected to contract for Anta and Fila by -0.6 percentage points and -3.7 percentage points year-over-year, respectively, while GPM for smaller brands is expected to remain largely flat [3][20]. Financial Forecasts - The net income forecast for 2025-2027 remains broadly unchanged, reflecting a better outlook for Fila and smaller brands, despite a lower gross profit margin [2][22]. - The report includes detailed financial projections for revenue, EBITDA, and EPS for the years 2025 to 2027, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 80.4 billion in 2025, RMB 89.2 billion in 2026, and RMB 97.8 billion in 2027 [7][29]. Operational Metrics - The report highlights operational metrics such as operating profit margin (OPM) for Anta at 18% and for Fila at 23% in 1H25, with expectations of margin contraction due to lower gross profit margins [20][24]. - The anticipated operating expenses for 1H25 are projected to grow by 13.3%, while operating income is expected to grow by 7.5% [24][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Dabeinong and Haid, a "Neutral" rating on Wens, and a "Sell" rating on New Hope [7][13]. Core Insights - The domestic hog benchmark price is revised down by 9% for 2H25E to Rmb16.0/kg and by 6% to Rmb16.5/kg for 2026-27E, reflecting better cost management by marginal producers and improved supply discipline [1][3]. - The total unit cost of hog farming by marginal producers has decreased by Rmb0.8/kg in 1H25E compared to the end of 2024A, primarily due to productivity gains and lower mortality rates [2]. - Supply/demand dynamics are expected to shift from a surplus of 6% in 1H25A to a deficit of 3% in 2H25E, driven by a declining sow herd and increased seasonal demand [3][11]. Summary by Sections Price and Supply Dynamics - The hog price is projected to improve from Rmb16.0/kg in 2H25E to Rmb16.5/kg in 2026-27E, with an implied net profit ranging from Rmb0.7-2.3/kg for 2H25E [4][7]. - The average sow herd size is expected to decrease from 28.9 million heads in 1H25E to 27.5 million heads by 2027E, contributing to a sustained supply deficit of 3-4% [11]. Earnings Adjustments - Earnings for hog-related stocks are revised down by 8-31% for 2025E and 7-19% for 2026-27E, reflecting the new hog price assumptions [7][13]. - The report highlights specific earnings changes for companies: Wens (-18%), New Hope (-31%), Haid (-9%), and Dabeinong (-8%) [13]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a positive trend in supply discipline, with measures such as controlling live hog output weight and ceasing secondary fattening practices to mitigate short-term supply risks [6][11]. - The overall market dynamics suggest a more favorable pricing environment due to improved supply management and seasonal demand increases [3][11].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GDS and VNET, with target prices set at US$37/HK$36 for GDS (20% upside) and US$12 for VNET (69% upside) [1][21] Core Insights - The China data center sector is expected to benefit from deleveraging and improved order visibility, which will support share price performance in the second half of 2025 [1] - GDS is positioned to capture demand from Generative AI-driven cloud growth, while VNET aims for significant capacity expansion under its Hyperscale 2.0 strategy [18][23] Summary by Sections GDS Holdings - GDS's C-REIT offering implies a 16.9x 2026 EV/EBITDA, scheduled for listing on July 14, which supports deleveraging with approximately Rmb1.6 billion proceeds [4][8] - Revenue forecasts for GDS remain largely unchanged, with EBITDA revised down by 7% for 2025E [9] - GDS's financials show a projected revenue of Rmb11,545 million for 2025E, with an EBITDA of Rmb5,335 million [16] VNET Group - VNET has raised its guidance for 2025 revenue and EBITDA, aiming for a total data center capacity of 10GW by 2036 [21][25] - The company has added 555MW in data center capacity from 2019 to 2024 and plans to reach 1GW by 2025 [23][27] - VNET's revenue for 2025E is projected at Rmb9,316 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of Rmb2,810 million [41] Market Dynamics - Improved visibility of chip availability is expected to lead to stronger order volume and faster revenue growth for both GDS and VNET in 2026E [4] - The report anticipates that Alibaba and Tencent's capital expenditures will recover sequentially in the second half of 2025 [5] Financial Metrics - GDS's net debt/adj EBITDA ratio is projected to decline to 5.1x by 2028E due to improving EBITDA and reduced capex [13] - VNET's EBITDA margin is expected to improve to 34.0% by 2027E, reflecting operational efficiencies [41] Strategic Outlook - GDS is focusing on backlog delivery to enhance revenue growth visibility, while VNET's Hyperscale 2.0 strategy emphasizes a platform-based approach to data center operations [18][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pony AI Inc. with a 12-month price target of US$26.00, indicating an upside potential of 97.1% from the current price of US$13.19 [13]. Core Insights - Pony AI has commenced Robotaxi road-testing in Luxembourg after obtaining the necessary permits, marking a significant step in its overseas expansion strategy [7][8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its Robotaxi fleet in international markets while also ramping up operations in China, with expectations of improved profitability this year [1][8]. - The partnership with local vendors, such as Emile Weber in Luxembourg, is anticipated to facilitate faster expansion and deployment of electric autonomous vehicles [7]. Summary by Sections On-Road Testing - Pony AI started on-road testing in Luxembourg in July after receiving a scientific permit for L4 autonomous driving in April [7]. - Initial testing began in Lenningen and is set to expand to additional areas, supported by local mobility solution providers [7]. Overseas Expansion - The report highlights the trend of Chinese Robotaxi companies accelerating their overseas market entry while also increasing fleet sizes in China [8]. - Pony AI has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority to deploy its Robotaxi fleet in the region [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Pony AI show significant growth, with expected revenues increasing from US$75 million in 2024 to US$3.858 billion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [10]. - The report anticipates a substantial increase in Robotaxi operational volume, projecting growth from 124 units in 2024 to 53,000 units by 2032 [10]. - The EBITDA margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 36.2% by 2032 [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modestly richer range for US yields, with expectations for 2-year and 10-year yields to finish the year at 3.45% and 4.20% respectively, down from previous forecasts of 3.85% and 4.50% [2][5]. Core Views - The revised Fed baseline suggests earlier cuts and a lower terminal rate, leading to a lower range for US yields across the curve. The expectation for 10-year US yields is now 4.20% at the end of 2025, compared to 4.50% previously [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the improved macro outlook will compress risk premia throughout the Gilt curve, with a forecast of 10-year Gilts at 4.25% by year-end [19]. - European duration is expected to trade weaker over time, with a 10-year Bund yield forecast of 2.8% for end-2025, driven by fiscal support from Germany [19][11]. Summary by Sections US and Canada - The firmer than expected June jobs report has led to a modestly richer range for US yields, with the revised forecasts reflecting a dovish stance compared to market pricing [2][5]. - The risks associated with diminished central bank independence and fiscal pressures are limiting factors for long-end richening [2]. Europe - The report maintains Bund yield forecasts at 2.8% for end-2025, with expectations that fiscal support will push yields higher as growth expectations improve [11][19]. - The ECB's strategy assessment indicates a need for forceful policy action to address inflation volatility, with limited guidance on near-term policy [11]. UK - The report notes ongoing fiscal fragilities in the UK, but front-end longs are expected to remain relatively well protected despite recent volatility in the Gilt market [16][19]. - The expectation is for 10-year Gilts to rally towards 4.25% by year-end, supported by bullish spillovers from the US [19]. Japan - The report suggests that the BOJ normalization cycle will be prolonged, with a medium-term neutral rate of 1.25-1.5%, impacting yields across the curve [19]. General Market Dynamics - The report highlights that a benign path to lower short-term rates can improve the economic appeal of US Treasuries, despite downward revisions to US yields [1][4]. - The potential for deeper cuts to support lower yields is acknowledged, with a steeper curve expected in spot terms [4][7].