Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting a stabilization and recovery phase in 2025, with a focus on policy support to boost market confidence and activity [2][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the real estate sector as a pillar of the national economy, highlighting its significant impact on GDP and its interconnectedness with various economic factors [8][12]. - It discusses the "stop decline and stabilize" policy introduced by the central government, which aims to address the current challenges in the real estate market, including high inventory levels and low sales [8][9]. - The report forecasts a marginal improvement in sales in 2025, with a projected year-on-year decline in sales area of -5% and a decline in development investment of -8% [9][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Internal and External Situations Facing "Stop Decline and Stabilize" - The real estate industry is reaffirmed as a key pillar of the national economy, with significant contributions to bank loans, local government finances, and urban residents' assets [12][13]. - Changes in supply and demand dynamics are highlighted, with a current oversupply of housing and a declining population growth rate affecting demand [13][16]. - The report notes challenges faced by the three drivers of economic growth: exports, consumption, and investment, particularly due to external trade tensions and domestic consumption recovery [16][18][22]. 2. Comprehensive Policies for "Stop Decline and Stabilize" - The report outlines a series of targeted policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on supply, demand, financing, and investment [22][24]. - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach across various government departments to enhance market confidence and stimulate demand [26][30]. - The report compares current policies with those from previous cycles, noting a more comprehensive and aggressive approach in the current policy environment [32][37]. 3. Monitoring Indicators for "Stop Decline and Stabilize" - The report identifies key indicators for monitoring the effectiveness of the "stop decline and stabilize" policies, including sales volume, financing, prices, and investment [48][49]. - Historical trends indicate that sales volume is the most responsive indicator, while prices tend to lag behind other metrics [48][49]. - The report suggests that achieving a balance between supply and demand is crucial for stabilizing the market [9][45].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth in retail sales for the months of October and November, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% for the combined period, despite a weaker performance in November due to the timing of the Double Eleven shopping festival [1][4]. Core Insights - The Double Eleven shopping festival's early occurrence led to a decline in optional goods such as clothing and cosmetics in November, but the overall growth for the two months remained positive [1][11]. - Durable goods related to the trade-in policy, such as home appliances and automobiles, showed strong performance, with November automobile sales increasing by 6.6% year-on-year [1][12]. - Essential food items demonstrated resilience, while beverage and tobacco categories showed relative weakness [1][12]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - November retail sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with a 2.5% increase excluding automobiles. The combined retail sales for October and November showed a steady growth of 3.9% [1][4]. - Specific categories in November included a decline in optional goods like clothing (-4.5%) and cosmetics (-26.4%), while durable goods like home appliances saw a significant increase of 22.2% [1][11][12]. Consumer Behavior - The report highlights that the early Double Eleven event impacted consumer spending patterns, particularly in optional categories, but overall retail trends remained positive compared to Q3 [1][11]. - The restaurant sector outperformed goods retail, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% in November, indicating a recovery in dining out [1][10]. Online Retail Trends - Online retail growth slowed in November, with express delivery volumes showing a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [1][20]. - The report notes that the online retail volume and revenue for major categories increased by 20.3% and 26.9% respectively during the specified period [1][12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, suggesting that the industry stock index is expected to perform in line with the benchmark over the next 12 months [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of commercial health insurance in empowering pharmaceutical innovation and supporting the development of a multi-tiered medical security system [2][19]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to medical insurance fund management, advocating for the integration of commercial health insurance with basic medical insurance to enhance the quality of pharmaceutical industry development [2][19]. Market Review - The Hong Kong stock market saw the Hang Seng Composite Index rise by 0.4% while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.8%, underperforming the market by 2.2 percentage points during the week of December 6-13, 2024 [9][15]. - In the A-share market, the CSI 300 Index declined by 1%, with the pharmaceutical and biological index down by 0.9%, outperforming the market by 0.1 percentage points [15]. - Among 13 pharmaceutical sub-sectors, offline pharmacies, pharmaceutical circulation, and traditional Chinese medicine showed gains of 5.0%, 1.0%, and 0.6% respectively, while other sectors experienced declines [15]. Important News - The National Medical Insurance Administration held a national medical security work conference, outlining plans for 2025 that include promoting the experience of the Sanming medical reform and enhancing the role of commercial health insurance [2][19]. - The report mentions the implementation of centralized procurement for medical consumables and the introduction of new pricing management measures to regulate pharmaceutical prices [19][22]. - Significant developments include the announcement of a collaboration between Duality Biologics and GSK for an ADC drug, with a total agreement value exceeding $1 billion [23]. Sub-sector Performance - The report notes that in 2024, the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors are valued at 0.5-1 times PEG, while traditional Chinese medicine and internet healthcare are valued at 1-2 times PEG [11]. - For 2025, the pharmaceutical sector is projected to exceed 2 times PEG, indicating potential growth opportunities [11].

Inflation Insights - The US November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations but higher than October's 0.1% increase[9] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with previous values[21] - PPI for November rose by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.6%, indicating upward inflation pressure[13] Economic Concerns - There are three main concerns regarding inflation: a potential wage-inflation spiral, rising inflation expectations due to political uncertainties, and an unexpected increase in PPI[11] - The 12-month rolling federal deficit reached $2.46 trillion, up from $2.26 trillion, reflecting a widening fiscal gap[26] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut key interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Swiss National Bank lowered rates by 50 basis points, exceeding market expectations[14] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, potentially reducing the number of rate cuts planned for next year[13] Market Trends - Recent trading patterns have shown a return to inflation and tightening trades, reflecting market reactions to inflation data and central bank policies[18] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds increased by 25 basis points to 4.40%, while 2-year yields rose by 15 basis points to 4.25%[26] Global Economic Indicators - Eurozone industrial production remained flat in October, while Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €134 billion from €169 billion[34] - Japan's third-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.3% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating slight economic improvement[39]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on companies with strong international R&D capabilities, such as Kangfang Biopharma (9926.HK) [8][61]. Core Insights - The global pharmaceutical index has shown a significant decline post-pandemic, with the MSCI China Pharmaceutical Index down by 16.2%, underperforming the market by 32% [8][24]. - The report highlights that while the stock market has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the R&D capabilities within the Chinese pharmaceutical sector have improved significantly [8][61]. - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to favor leading companies, particularly those with international R&D capabilities [8][61]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S.-China relations, particularly for CRO and biotech companies engaged in drug development in the U.S. [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Global Pharmaceutical Sector Review - The pharmaceutical sector has underperformed compared to the overall market, with significant declines noted in various regions, particularly in China [16][24]. - The report indicates that the Chinese pharmaceutical market has seen a 24% decline in static P/E ratios, reflecting a challenging environment [16][24]. 2. 2025 Outlook - The report anticipates that the impact of drug procurement policies will diminish, with a focus on the successful transformation of leading pharmaceutical companies [8][9]. - It suggests that the medical device sector will be a key area for future reforms, with a stable growth outlook for medical consumables driven by clinical demand [8][9]. - The report recommends focusing on several categories of companies for investment, including those in the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors with strong pipelines and innovation [9][47]. 3. Subsector Outlook - **Biotechnology/Pharmaceuticals**: The impact of centralized procurement is decreasing, and leading companies are successfully transforming [10][62]. - **CRO/CDMO**: The global biopharmaceutical investment environment is recovering, but challenges remain for Chinese companies with significant overseas operations [10][62]. - **Medical Devices**: The impact of centralized procurement is neutral to positive, with upcoming policies expected to support growth [10][13]. - **Medical Services**: The report notes significant pressure on serious medical services due to policy impacts, while consumer healthcare is expected to grow rapidly [10][13]. - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: The prepayment policy for medical insurance funds is expected to improve cash flow for pharmaceutical distribution companies [10][13].

2024 年 12 月 9 日 研究报告·科技行业研究 行业研究 科技行业 2025 年展望： 卫星部署爆发在即， 商业航天迎来黄金时代 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer industry, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand expansion and identifying potential investment opportunities in various segments [1]. Core Insights - The consumer industry in 2024 is characterized by weak overall demand, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary items are weaker. The report highlights the impact of government policies promoting consumption, particularly in durable goods through trade-in programs [1][10]. - The report anticipates a more significant focus on domestic consumption in 2025, with local governments expected to introduce new consumption-promoting policies tailored to regional conditions [1][52]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards rational consumption, with a focus on value for money and experiential purchases. This trend is leading to a divergence in performance among international consumer goods companies operating in China [1][59]. - The report discusses the challenges faced by companies looking to expand internationally, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes, especially with the U.S. [1][65]. Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The overall retail sales growth in 2024 was 3.5%, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, with essential goods maintaining a growth rate of 9.9% in the first ten months [25][32]. - The performance of listed companies varied, with discretionary sectors like apparel and cosmetics showing weaker results compared to essential goods [42][47]. 2025 Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences, focusing on high-growth segments such as outdoor products and innovative consumer goods [1][12]. - It identifies key characteristics for successful consumer companies, including strong supply chain management, pricing power, and the ability to localize products for international markets [1][86]. Sub-industry Insights - **Dairy and Upstream Agriculture**: Expected recovery in demand and potential price stabilization in raw milk by late 2025 [94]. - **Sportswear**: Anticipated growth driven by increased participation in sports and outdoor activities, with a focus on brand recovery potential [101]. - **Footwear OEM**: Completion of inventory replenishment and emphasis on quality customer structures [106]. - **Dining**: Increased competition and the need for innovation to maintain market share [120]. - **Retail**: The sector is undergoing transformation, with a focus on consumer insights and product differentiation [133]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as dairy, outdoor products, and trendy consumer goods, while being cautious about export-oriented companies facing geopolitical risks [1][14].

民银证券研究团队 温 彬 民生银行首席经济学家 兼民银国际首席经济学家 应习文 民银国际/证券研究部副主任 兼海外宏观策略研究员 联系人：应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 美国经济保持软着陆，政策落地、通胀与降息形成"特朗普不可能三 协平衡，而通胀约束将更为刚性。 欧洲经济或保持有限复苏，面临去工业化挑战。随着欧洲央行和英国 央行持续降息，欧洲经济保持需求复苏，但特朗普的贸易政策或将进 一步冲击欧洲疲弱的工业，造成外需收缩和去工业化，影响就业创造 并削弱工资—通胀螺旋。预计欧洲经济在 2025 年将弱势复苏，通胀 有望触及政策目标，欧英央行也将保持降息节奏。 研究报告·宏观策略研究 展望报告 2024 年 12 月 10 日 非常道，大不同——2025 年全球经济展望 【内容摘要】 2024 年全球经济在波动中稳健复苏,全球经济版图的新均衡已初见雏 形, 美国经济稳健，欧日走出停滞，新兴市场保持动能, 多数国家货 币政策回到通胀与增长平衡目标。随着特朗普赢得总统大选，美国政 治图谱转向，孤立主义崛起，全球经济新均衡面临挑战，地缘政治格 局或产 ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2024 年第 41 期） 2024 年 12 月 9 日 就业数据反复，美联储接近降息 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-----------------------|------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 【一周焦点】 | | 民银证券研究团队 应习文 | | | 美国就业数据在周内集中发布，显示劳动力市场在趋近均衡之路上 | | 电 话： | +852 3728 8180 | | 有所反复。结合新增就业和职位空缺来看，美国制造业中耐用品就 | | Email ： | xiwenying@cmbcint.com | | 业贡献加大，或因技术进步下的设备投资增加相关，但非耐用品在 | | 相关报告： | | | 走弱；服务业中 ...

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