Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the intertwining expectations of recession and stagflation in the US economy, with significant market divergence observed in global trading [2][10] - Recent macroeconomic indicators, including lower-than-expected CPI and PPI, suggest a decline in short-term demand and increasing economic downturn pressure [2][10] - The report emphasizes that inflation expectations are rising despite short-term inflation pressures decreasing, indicating a complex economic landscape [12][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The US stock market indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, experienced declines of 2.3%, 2.4%, and 3.1% respectively, while European markets also turned bearish due to recession concerns [10] - The US CPI for February increased by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9%, indicating a cooling in inflation [10][23] - Core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, which was below the anticipated 3.2% [10][23] Key Data - The US labor market shows signs of weakening, with January wholesale sales declining by 2.3% for durable goods and 0.3% for non-durable goods [28] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped significantly from 64.7 to 57.9, reflecting decreased consumer confidence [28] - The report notes that the labor market has reached a near-equilibrium state, with job openings and labor shortages being adjusted downwards [11][21] Important Events - The US Congress passed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, maintaining federal operations until September 30, 2025 [49] - The EU has implemented countermeasures against US tariffs, indicating ongoing trade tensions [10][49] - Japan's wage growth reached its highest level since 1992, highlighting significant economic shifts [10][49] Market Trading Patterns - The report identifies a mixed trading pattern in recent days, with recession and inflation themes dominating the market [15][20] - The bond market reflects investor concerns about long-term inflation, with rising inflation expectations despite short-term indicators showing a decline [12][28] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be stronger than in 2018, as producers face limited capacity to absorb costs [13] - The interplay between rising inflation and economic slowdown will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of recession versus stagflation [13]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly in optional goods and dining, with a focus on structural improvements in retail sales [3][7]. Core Insights - Retail sales in January and February showed a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 4.5%. Excluding automobiles, the growth rate was 4.8% [3][7]. - The performance of optional goods such as clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry has improved, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 4.4%, and 5.4% respectively [4][16]. - The dining sector experienced its best performance since the second half of 2024, with overall dining revenue increasing by 4.3% [5][12]. - The government has introduced measures to boost consumption, particularly in dairy products, trendy retail, and leading sports footwear companies [5][12]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In January and February, retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with optional goods and dining showing significant improvement [3][7]. - The growth in retail sales of optional goods was driven by strong performance in clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry, alongside a high growth rate in sports and entertainment-related services [4][16]. Durable Goods - The report highlights that the national subsidy policy has positively impacted the performance of communication equipment and furniture, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.2% and 11.7% respectively [4][17]. - Despite a decline in the growth rate of home appliances due to installation issues during the Spring Festival, production data suggests that the subsidy effects are still present [4][17]. Essential Goods - The demand for beverages and tobacco remains relatively weak, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5% for food, -2.6% for beverages, and 5.5% for tobacco [4][17]. Government Initiatives - The Central and State Council have issued a "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," focusing on establishing childcare subsidies, promoting domestic trendy products, and optimizing approval processes for cultural and sports events [5][12]. Online Retail and Logistics - Online retail sales growth has slightly decreased to 5% year-on-year, while express delivery volumes continue to show strong growth at 22.4% [30][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly in optional goods and dining, with a focus on structural improvements in retail sales [3][7]. Core Insights - Retail sales in January and February showed a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 4.5%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales growth was stronger at 4.8% [3][7]. - The dining sector experienced its best performance since the second half of 2024, with overall dining revenue increasing by 4.3% year-on-year [5][12]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of national subsidies in boosting durable goods, with significant growth in categories such as communication equipment and furniture [4][17]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In January and February, retail sales of optional goods such as clothing, cosmetics, and jewelry showed recovery, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 4.4%, and 5.4% respectively [4][16]. - The sports and entertainment category continued to thrive, achieving a year-on-year growth of 25.0% [4][16]. - The overall retail sales growth for goods and dining was recorded at 3.9% and 4.3% respectively [3][7]. Durable Goods and Subsidies - National subsidies have positively impacted the performance of communication equipment and furniture, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.2% and 11.7% respectively [4][17]. - Despite a decline in the growth rate of home appliances due to installation issues during the Spring Festival, production data suggests that the subsidy effects are still strong [4][17]. Consumer Behavior and Trends - The demand for essential goods such as beverages and tobacco remains relatively weak, indicating a need for further recovery [4][17]. - The report notes that online retail sales growth has slightly decreased to 5% year-on-year, while express delivery volumes continue to show strong growth at 22.4% [30][32].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of Trump's policies on the U.S. economy and China's external demand, highlighting significant changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and international relations [1][3] Summary by Sections Section 1: Trump's Policy Expectations - Trump's administration has signed 140 official documents in the first 52 days, significantly more than previous administrations, indicating a proactive approach to governance [4][5] Section 2: U.S. Economic Shift and Narrative Change - The report notes a record trade deficit of $1,568 billion in January, which is expected to negatively impact GDP growth by approximately 3% [17] - Consumer confidence has declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 64.7, reflecting concerns over government spending cuts and economic policies [23] Section 3: Impact of Tariffs on China - Trump's tariff policies have become more complex and targeted, with a focus on imposing tariffs on specific industries such as steel, aluminum, and automotive, aiming to protect U.S. manufacturing and reduce fiscal deficits [8] - The report outlines a series of tariffs imposed on imports from China and other countries, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive trade stance [8] Section 4: Immigration Policy - The administration's immigration policies have faced legal challenges, particularly regarding the birthright citizenship issue, which has been deemed unconstitutional by several judges [9] - Efforts to deport illegal immigrants have been initiated, but the costs and legal hurdles present significant challenges to implementation [9] Section 5: Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts - The report highlights a focus on fiscal balance, with plans to save $1 trillion through government efficiency measures, while tax cuts are positioned as a secondary priority [10] - The administration aims to reduce the federal deficit, with proposals to cut spending and reassess foreign aid [10] Section 6: International Relations - Trump's foreign policy has been characterized by a series of withdrawals from international agreements and organizations, emphasizing an "America First" approach [11] - The report notes significant diplomatic tensions, particularly regarding the Ukraine crisis and relations with NATO allies [11] Section 7: Energy and Environmental Policy - The administration has reversed many of the previous administration's environmental policies, focusing on traditional energy production and reducing regulatory burdens on the energy sector [12] - The withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the push for increased fossil fuel production are key components of the energy strategy [12]

Group 1: Trump Administration's Policy Actions - Trump signed 89 executive orders, 18 presidential statements, and 23 other documents within the first 52 days of his administration, a threefold increase compared to the same period in 2017[4] - The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aims to save $550 billion, with 84,500 federal employees affected by buyout plans and layoffs[7] - The administration's trade protection measures include a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, with further tariffs on various products expected[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record $156.8 billion in January, contributing to an estimated 2.4% contraction in Q1 GDP[17] - Consumer confidence indices have declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 64.7 in February, down from 71.7[23] - Retail sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month decline of 0.9% in January, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[26] Group 3: Employment and Labor Market - The U.S. unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.14% in February, with government layoffs not yet fully reflected in the data[35] - The government sector added only 11,000 jobs in February, with significant layoffs expected due to the DOGE's efficiency measures[32] - The impact of government layoffs could potentially raise the unemployment rate by 1.1 percentage points if 20% of federal employees are affected[35] Group 4: Real Estate and Inflation - Rising interest rates have led to a cooling real estate market, with new home sales down 10.5% month-on-month in January[38] - Inflation indicators show a slight decrease, with the CPI for all items at 2.8% year-on-year in February, down from 3.0% in January[41]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 361 Degrees (1361.HK) with a target price of HKD 5.63, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of HKD 4.59 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% and a net profit growth of 19% for 2024, aligning with expectations. The end-of-period inventory increased by 56% to HKD 2.1 billion due to early stocking for the Spring Festival [5][6]. - The company plans to expand its "super product stores" to 100 by the end of 2025, aiming to create a store model similar to "Uniqlo" in the sports industry [7][8]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 10-15% for 2025, with a net profit margin projected between 10-12% [8]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 10.07 billion, with a gross profit margin of 41.5% and a net profit margin of 11.4% [5][9]. - The forecast for 2025E-2027E indicates revenues of HKD 11.24 billion, HKD 12.41 billion, and HKD 13.66 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 10.4%, and 10.1% respectively [8][9]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be HKD 1.28 billion, HKD 1.41 billion, and HKD 1.57 billion, with growth rates of 11.3%, 10.5%, and 11.0% respectively [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has seen strong performance in its running and basketball categories, with year-on-year growth rates of 30% and 20% respectively. High-end products have also made significant contributions to sales [6][8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its inventory management and improving cash flow, with a projected operating cash flow of HKD 70 million for 2024 [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 361 Degrees (1361.HK) with a target price of HKD 5.63, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of HKD 4.59 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 20% and a net profit growth of 19% for 2024, aligning with expectations. The end-of-period inventory increased by 56% to HKD 2.1 billion due to early stocking for the Spring Festival [5][6]. - The company plans to expand its "super premium store" concept to 100 locations by the end of 2025, aiming to create a store model akin to "Uniqlo" in the sports industry [7][8]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 10-15% for 2025, with a net profit margin projected between 10-12% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a net profit of HKD 1.15 billion, up 19% [5][9]. - The gross profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 41.5%, while the net profit margin remained stable at 11.4% [5][9]. - The report forecasts revenues of HKD 11.24 billion, HKD 12.41 billion, and HKD 13.66 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 10.4%, and 10.1% [8][9]. Inventory and Cash Flow Analysis - The company’s inventory turnover days remained stable at 149 days, with a significant increase in inventory due to early stocking [5][9]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be HKD 70 million, reflecting the impact of early inventory stocking [5][9].

Asset Performance - US 10Y Treasury yield at 4.32%, up 8.0 bp; 2Y yield unchanged at 3.99%[3] - German 10Y Treasury yield increased by 45.0 bp to 2.83%; 2Y yield up 23.0 bp to 2.23%[3] - S&P 500 index down 3.10% to 5770.20; Nasdaq down 3.45% to 18196.22[3] Economic Indicators - US trade deficit reached a record $156.8 billion in January, contributing to a potential GDP contraction of 2.4% in Q1 2025[11] - February non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs, below the expected 160,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.14%[20][22] - Eurozone Q4 GDP revised up to +1.2% YoY, with a slight increase in government spending contribution[30] Market Trends - US stock market continues to weaken, with Nasdaq down 10% since February 19; European markets reaching new highs[10] - Dollar index fell over 5% from around 110 to below 104, while Euro and Pound increased by over 4% and 3% respectively[10] - Increased expectations for three Fed rate cuts in 2025 due to economic slowdown[4] Inflation and Employment - February average hourly earnings rose by 4.0% YoY, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[25] - Eurozone February CPI at +2.4%, slightly above expectations, with core CPI at +2.6%[32] - US manufacturing PMI improved to 52.7, signaling a recovery in manufacturing orders[26]

Macroeconomic Insights - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at approximately 5.0%, consistent with the previous year, emphasizing the need for consumption to play a significant role in achieving this target[8] - The CPI target has been adjusted down to around 2.0%, indicating a shift towards stabilizing prices and addressing inflation and demand gaps as key economic tasks for 2025[13] - The broad deficit scale has increased, with a broad deficit rate of 8.4%, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at five key areas[14] - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with expectations for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction likely in mid-2025[16] Consumption and Investment - The importance of boosting consumption has been elevated, with expectations for retail sales growth to exceed 6.0% in 2025, driven by diverse consumption policies and support for new consumption formats[22] - Effective investment expansion is prioritized, with fixed asset investment projected to grow by approximately 5.5%, including a 7.0% increase in infrastructure investment[23] - The government plans to utilize various investment tools and enhance fiscal-financial cooperation to ensure funding for ongoing projects[23] Capital Market and Industry Focus - Capital market reforms are expected to drive long-term healthy development, with a focus on attracting medium- and long-term funds into the market[24] - Emerging and future industries such as artificial intelligence, 6G communication, and bio-manufacturing are highlighted as key areas for growth and innovation[26] - The report emphasizes the need to address external challenges, with a robust policy toolkit prepared to respond to geopolitical and trade tensions[28] Market Outlook - The "pulse-style slow bull" market is anticipated to continue, supported by domestic economic improvements and periodic external shocks[31] - Historical analysis indicates that the current market environment is conducive to a sustained upward trend, with a gradual recovery in valuations observed since early 2024[39]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the prioritization of domestic demand expansion in the 2025 government work report, highlighting multiple measures to boost consumer confidence and spending capacity, with a target inflation rate of around 2% for consumer prices throughout the year [1][3][10] - The "trade-in" policy is reinforced with a special long-term government bond allocation of 300 billion yuan to support consumer goods, doubling the amount from the previous year [1][3][7] - Various supporting measures aim to enhance consumer willingness and capacity, including employment stabilization, income growth for low- and middle-income groups, and improved labor rights protections [1][3][5] Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from the domestic demand expansion, particularly in food and beverage, with potential gains for raw milk suppliers and dairy leaders, as well as high-demand sectors like outdoor products and trendy toys [2][4] - The report suggests that if demand recovers as anticipated, sectors such as dining, sportswear, and evolving retail chains will exhibit resilience [2][4] - The export chain is under observation due to the reshaping of global trade dynamics, with a focus on the long-term potential of overseas markets and the importance of product value and pricing power [2][4][6] New Consumption Trends - The government work report places significant emphasis on promoting new consumption forms, including sportswear and outdoor products, by enhancing leisure time and sports infrastructure [5][9] - Policies aimed at increasing participation in sports and outdoor activities are expected to drive demand for related products, with local brands gaining competitive ground against international counterparts [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of infrastructure development in facilitating the export of light industrial products, with a focus on quality control and efficiency [6][7] Trade-in Policy Details - The trade-in policy for consumer goods in 2025 is set at 300 billion yuan, with an expanded category of supported products from 8 to 12, including home appliances and digital devices [7][12] - Specific subsidies are introduced for mobile devices priced under 6,000 yuan, with a 15% subsidy on the purchase price, alongside increased support for home renovation products [7][12] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home appliance sector, with expected improvements in domestic sales profitability and continued expansion into emerging markets despite trade risks [7][12]