研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 5 期） 2025 年 2 月 10 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | | | | 2025-02-07 | 周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | | | | 4.49 | -9.0 bp | | 美国国债收益率2Y | | | | 4.29 | 7.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率10Y | | | | 1.27 | 2.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | | | | 0.76 | 3.3 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | | | | 2.36 | -12.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率2Y | | | | 2.05 | -8.0 bp | | 标 普500指 数 | | | | 6025.99 | -0.24 % | | 纳斯达克指数 | | | | 19523.40 | -0.53 % | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | | | 44 ...

证券研究报告·消费研究 行业研究 春节消费解读——文旅景气超预期，机酒价格偏弱 民银证券研究团队 2025 年春节文旅消费超预期，客流量增基础上，人均支出显著修复。 电影市场量价齐升，耐用品以旧换新、跨境游需求强劲： （3）国际航班量修复至 19 年同期 9 成，跨境游、耐用品以旧换新的 需求强劲。2025 春运期间国际航线累计执飞航班量日均同比+26.3%， 恢复至 19 年同期 89%；日本、泰国、韩国为前三目的地，春节期间 出境航班分别恢复至 19 年同期的 114%/ 72%/ 89%。以安徽省为例， 25 年春节通讯器材、汽车、家电销售额分别增长 86%、25%、19.6%。 机酒价格、海南离岛免税销售偏弱，消费者"悦己"的同时精打细算： 2025 年春节期间机票与酒店均价下滑，海南免税购物人次显著下滑， 机酒作为单价相对高的消费，与电影文娱和出游文旅服务等开支对 比，体现出消费者在悦己购买情绪价值同时，在支出大额、差异化低 的项目偏向精打细算。 （1）据航班管家，2025 年春节期间(1.28-2.04)民航经济舱平均票价达 959 元，较 2024 年春节同比下滑 16.6%，较 2019 年春 ...

应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 研究报告·宏观策略研究 海外宏观周报（2025 年第 4 期） 2025 年 1 月 27 日 民银证券研究团队 主要大类资产走势： | | | | 2025-01-24 | 周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | | | 4.63 | 2.0 bp | | 美国国债收益率2Y | | | 4.27 | 0.0 bp | | 日本国债收益率10Y | | | 1.22 | 0.8 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | | | 0.70 | 0.6 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | | | 2.58 | 5.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率2Y | | | 2.28 | 6.0 bp | | 标 | 普500指 | 数 | 6101.24 | 1.74 % | | 纳斯达克指数 | | | 19954.30 | 1.65 % | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | | 44424.25 | 2.15 % | | 日 | 经225指 | ...

研究报告·宏观策略研究 专题研究 2025 年 1 月 27 日 民银证券研究团队 应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 全球市场交易模式：黄金分析框架 【内容摘要】 本研究属于全球市场交易模式研究系列的第三篇，将黄金分析纳入到 全球交易模式框架中。我们发现，不同交易模式对同一交易日内的黄 金涨跌幅具有相对显著的解释力。 宽松/紧缩交易代表着黄金的金融属性。宽松对应金价上涨而紧缩反 之。在 1989-2024 全时段内，宽松/紧缩交易对黄金日涨跌的影响显 著。不过分时段来看，在 2005 年以前，宽松/紧缩交易对黄金的影响 很弱，但 2005 年后，随着主要央行先后开启量化宽松和大幅扩张资 产负债表，黄金作为金融资产对抗传统货币超发的属性被大大强化。 通胀/降温交易代表着黄金在通胀驱动下的商品属性。通胀对应金价 上涨而降温反之。在 1989-2024 全时段内，通胀/降温交易对黄金日涨 跌的影响显著。不过分时段看，1989-2004 年全球通胀一度高企，通 胀/降温交易的影响最为显著，但在 2005 年之后通胀/降温交易对金价 的解释力度开始逐步 ...

本土与国际品牌相抗衡，细分垂类崛起 民银证券研究团队 证券研究报告·消费研究 运动鞋服行业覆盖报告 2025 年 1 月 27 日 运动鞋服行业深度报告—— 中国运动鞋服行业仍处景气阶段，行业容量大及集中度高，预计未来 三年将保持中单位数的复合增速。格局持续变化，户外高景气、专业 细分垂类崛起、复古风回归。驱动因素来源于运动参与度提升、居民 对舒适和功能性要求提升，运动鞋服渗透率上行。对比其他消费子行 业，行业增速领先且具备韧性，份额中长期持续整合。 美国与世界运动行业百年发展国际经验借鉴：(1) 美国运动鞋服行业 复合增速长期优于人均 GDP 增速，行业景气度高。(2)行业高集中度 得益于运动科技及体育营销资源构筑消费心智并形成护城河，但中小 品牌仍存在逆袭机会，通常借运动风潮崛起，以低价策略或填充细分 领域市场空白，获取份额。 本土 VS 国际品牌产品力视角，已实现技术追赶，现互相抗衡： 2017-2021 年以李宁䨻为首，本土品牌已逐步完成对国际品牌技术性 能追赶。本土运动品牌从马拉松、越野跑、户外等细分赛道切入，推 出高端功能性尖货价格带向上突破，以专业引领品牌向上。对比耐克， 我们总结了各安踏/李宁 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly in durable goods such as home appliances and communication devices, driven by government subsidies and replacement cycles [1][3]. Core Insights - December retail sales exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.49%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.2% [1][3]. - Durable goods, particularly home appliances, showed significant growth, with home appliance sales increasing by 39.3% year-on-year in December. Communication devices also saw a 14% increase [1][3][9]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer spending, with essential goods like food and beverages showing mixed results, while discretionary spending remains weak [1][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - December retail sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with total retail sales for the year increasing by 3.5%. The growth in retail sales was primarily driven by durable goods [1][3][21]. - The year 2024 is projected to see a 5.3% increase in per capita disposable income and spending, with service consumption rising by 7.4% [1][3]. Durable Goods - Home appliances and communication devices benefited from government subsidies and replacement cycles, with home appliance sales up 39.3% in December. The automotive sector saw a slowdown, with a 0.5% increase in December [1][9][15]. - The report notes that the government subsidy program has expanded, allowing for more categories of appliances to qualify for rebates, which is expected to further boost sales [10][15]. Essential Goods - Essential goods showed varied performance, with food and beverage sales increasing by 9.9%, while beverage sales declined by 8.5%. Tobacco sales increased by 10.4% [10][12]. - The report indicates that the early timing of the Spring Festival in 2025 is expected to accelerate demand for essential goods like tobacco and alcohol [10][12]. Discretionary Goods - Discretionary spending remains weak, with clothing and cosmetics showing declines of 0.3% and 0.8% respectively in December. However, sports and entertainment sectors maintained positive growth [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the warm winter in 2024 has negatively impacted demand for clothing, while the sports and entertainment sectors continue to thrive [11][12]. Online Retail and Employment - Online retail growth slowed slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5% in December. The logistics sector also saw significant growth, with express delivery volumes increasing by 21% [21][23]. - Employment indicators remained stable, with the service sector's business activity index rising to 52.0, indicating a healthy economic environment [23].

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. core CPI for December increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.8%[9] - The core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 3.3%[19] - The UK December CPI decreased to 2.5%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 2.6%[28] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - U.S. traders have shifted their expectations for the first interest rate cut from September to July due to easing inflation concerns[4] - Major U.S. stock indices rebounded following the CPI data release, while U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board[9] - The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7%[6] Group 3: Central Bank Actions and Expectations - The Bank of England is expected to cut rates in February, following a decrease in inflation[12] - The European Central Bank's decision on rate cuts will depend on upcoming economic data, particularly from Germany, which is facing economic contraction[13] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates due to rising inflation, with CPI data to be released on January 24[13] Group 4: Other Economic Data - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in December, while core retail sales also rose by 0.4%[24] - Germany's GDP contracted for the second consecutive year, with a preliminary value of -0.2% for 2024[30]

Employment Data - The U.S. job market showed significant improvement, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 256,000 in December, exceeding expectations of 160,000[11] - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased to 4.09%, down from 4.23% in November, with the number of unemployed persons falling by 236,000 to 6.884 million[24] - Job vacancies rose to 8.098 million in November, with a vacancy rate of 4.8%, marking a six-month high[20] Inflation Concerns - Despite a slight decline in wage growth, inflation concerns remain high, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.93% year-on-year in December[12] - The Michigan University survey indicated a rise in inflation expectations, with one-year and five-year expectations increasing to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively[12] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates once in 2025, with expectations for no further rate cuts rising[13] Market Trends - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down by 1.94% and the Nasdaq down by 2.34%[4] - U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 17 basis points to 4.77%[4] - Global inflation trading patterns have re-emerged, reflecting heightened concerns over inflation across various markets[15]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility during the New Year period, with major U.S. indices averaging a weekly decline of over 0.5%[5] - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, increased, indicating heightened fear among investors[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.60%, a decrease of 2 basis points, while the 2-year yield dropped to 4.28%, down 3 basis points[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.4, while the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, both better than expected[23] - In Europe, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI was revised down to 45.1, with the UK manufacturing PMI at 47.0, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector[28] - Japan's manufacturing PMI was slightly revised up to 49.6, and the Tokyo CPI rose to 3.0% year-on-year, up from 2.5%[33][36] Geopolitical and Policy Developments - The U.S. government faces a debt ceiling issue, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that the debt limit may be reached between January 14 and 23, 2025[16][40] - The Federal Reserve's reserve balances fell significantly by $326 billion to $2.89 trillion, marking the largest weekly decline in two and a half years[16] - The political landscape in the U.S. is marked by uncertainty due to the H-1B visa policy debate and the upcoming presidential election, which may impact market stability[39] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices increased by 1.18% to $2,646.80, while Brent crude oil prices rose by 3.43% to $76.80[4] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 0.84%, reaching 108.9212, reflecting a robust dollar performance against other currencies[4]

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve implemented a "hawkish rate cut" of 25 basis points, but market reactions were volatile, with the dollar index reaching a high of 108.5[9] - The dot plot indicates four officials projecting the 2024 year-end rate between 4.5% and 4.75%, suggesting a more hawkish stance for next year[10] - The Fed raised its economic and inflation forecasts, with the PCE inflation expectation set at 2.5% for 2025, indicating that current rates may not be restrictive enough[10] - November's core PCE inflation was flat at 2.8%, below the expected 2.9%, while overall PCE rose to 2.4%[11] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - Japan's central bank maintained its interest rates, but rising inflation expectations have increased the likelihood of a rate hike in January[14] - The Bank of England kept its rate at 4.75%, but the voting split was 6:3, indicating growing support for a rate cut despite persistent inflation[14] - Eurozone inflation was revised down, while UK inflation showed signs of resurgence, reflecting mixed economic signals across regions[34] Group 3: Key Economic Data - U.S. Q3 GDP was revised up to an annualized growth rate of 3.1%, with personal consumption contributing 2.5 percentage points[23] - November retail sales increased by 0.7%, surpassing expectations of 0.5%, while core retail sales rose by 0.2%[23] - Industrial production fell by 0.1% in November, but manufacturing output showed a slight recovery with a 0.2% increase[31]