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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Luxury Retail Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the luxury retail sector in China and Hong Kong, highlighting current trends and consumer behavior in the luxury market [1][21]. Core Insights - **Sales Trends**: Luxury sales experienced a narrowing year-over-year decline of approximately -5% to flat in October-November, compared to a decline of over -10% in the first nine months of 2024. This improvement is attributed to a stock market rally in late September and promotional activities during October and November [1][21]. - **Future Outlook**: Sales are expected to weaken further in December 2024 compared to the same period last year, with a continued decline anticipated over the next 6-12 months due to limited signs of demand recovery [1][21]. - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a noticeable shift in consumer spending towards overseas markets, particularly Japan, driven by outbound travel recovery, favorable foreign exchange rates, and a more relaxed payment system [1][21]. - **Price Sensitivity**: Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, leading to a shift in consumption budgets towards promotional seasons. Entry-level and middle-class consumers are experiencing lower purchase frequencies and longer decision cycles, impacting fashion luxury brands [1][21]. Category-Specific Insights - **Ultra-Luxury vs. Fashion Luxury**: Ultra-luxury sales remain resilient, while fashion luxury and traditional hard luxury categories have underperformed. For instance, kidswear sales are currently at only 50% of their peak levels in 2021 [1][21]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Foreign hard luxury brands have seen double-digit year-over-year declines in ready-made jewelry sales over the past 2-3 years. Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) has also faced a downward trend since 2023, focusing on higher-end gem-sets that are less favored by consumers. Conversely, demand for gold jewelry has increased, particularly for Laopu Gold (6181.HK), which has gained market share from traditional hard luxury brands [1][21]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Dynamics**: Despite Laopu Gold's strong same-store sales growth of over 100% in the first half of 2024, its sales are still only two-thirds of those of foreign hard-luxury brands, although it is outperforming Chow Tai Fook in the same locations [1][21]. Risks and Considerations - **Potential Risks**: The luxury retail sector faces risks from macroeconomic slowdowns, declines in disposable income, and intense competition in the gold products market in mainland China. Additionally, a decline in gold prices could negatively impact operating margins [4][21]. Conclusion - The luxury retail market in China and Hong Kong is currently experiencing a complex landscape characterized by narrowing sales declines, shifting consumer preferences, and competitive pressures. The outlook remains cautious, with expectations of further sales weakening in the near term [1][21].

Summary of the China Economic Activity and Policy Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic activity in China, particularly in the real estate, steel, and energy sectors, as well as macroeconomic indicators and policy measures. Key Points Consumption and Mobility - **Property Transactions**: The daily property transaction volume in the primary market across 30 cities was significantly above last year's level, with a year-over-year increase of 30.3% as of November 28, 2024 [7] - **Secondary Market Activity**: The daily property transaction volume in the secondary market also showed significant improvement compared to the previous year [8] - **Passenger Flights**: Domestic passenger flights remained stable over the past two weeks, indicating consistent mobility [8] - **Traffic Congestion**: The traffic congestion index in major cities was slightly below last year's level, with a decrease of 0.6% year-over-year [12] - **Subway Usage**: Daily subway passenger volume in 19 major cities was above both year-ago and pre-COVID levels, with a year-over-year increase of 2.3% [13] Production and Investment - **Flat Steel Demand**: Demand for flat steel increased slightly, with a year-over-year decrease of 0.4% as of November 28, 2024 [18] - **Long Steel Demand**: Long steel demand decreased significantly, showing an 11.7% year-over-year decline [20] - **Steel Production**: Steel production decreased by 6.5% year-over-year, indicating a slight reduction in output [25] - **Coal Consumption**: Daily coal consumption in eight coastal provinces was below last year's level, reflecting a decrease in energy demand [28] - **Local Government Bonds**: RMB 4.0 trillion in local government special bonds have been issued, exceeding the full-year quota, indicating increased fiscal activity [32] Other Macro Activity - **Freight Volume**: Freight volume of departing ships at eight major ports was below the 2023 level, with an 8.6% decrease [39] - **Oil Demand**: China's oil demand edged down to 16.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the latest reading, with expectations for higher demand from scheduled domestic flights in December [42][43] - **Repo Rates**: Interbank repo rates increased over the past week, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [48] Markets and Policy - **Credit Spreads**: Property high-yield credit spreads widened slightly over the past two weeks, reflecting increased risk perception in the property sector [54] - **Currency Movements**: The Chinese Yuan (CNY) depreciated against the USD but appreciated against the CFETS basket recently, indicating mixed currency pressures [55] - **Policy Announcements**: Several macro policy announcements were made to strengthen the economy, including measures to support the property sector and promote foreign trade growth [59] Additional Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the property market, despite challenges in the steel and energy sectors. The increase in property transactions and subway usage suggests a rebound in consumer confidence and mobility. However, the decline in steel demand and production raises concerns about industrial activity and economic growth sustainability. The widening credit spreads in the property sector indicate heightened risk, which could impact future investment decisions. This comprehensive analysis provides a snapshot of the current economic landscape in China, reflecting both opportunities and challenges for investors and policymakers alike.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese economy and the perspectives of local clients regarding economic conditions and policies as of November 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Concerns on US Tariffs** - Onshore clients are highly focused on potential US tariff increases, estimating hikes of 30-40 percentage points on Chinese goods, compared to Goldman Sachs' assumption of an average 20 percentage points [3]. - Clients are interested in the implementation process of these tariffs and China's potential responses, including trade policy retaliation and domestic macro policy stimulus [3]. 2. **China's Domestic Policy Offset** - There is a consensus among onshore clients that late September marked a turning point for China's policy easing, which is seen as reactive rather than preemptive [4]. - Clients expect that additional measures, such as central government special bond quotas, will materialize in the coming quarters to support economic growth [4]. 3. **Prolonged PPI Deflation** - Onshore clients have lower expectations for PPI inflation, with many believing it will remain negative in 2025 due to overcapacity in industrial sectors and a prolonged property downturn [8]. - A stronger USD under a potential second Trump administration could further pressure global commodity prices and PPI [8]. 4. **Growth Target for 2025** - Despite concerns regarding US tariffs and domestic deflation, most onshore clients view a growth target of "around 5%" for 2025 as likely [9]. - Clients believe that policymakers will avoid setting a significantly lower target to rebuild confidence, although achieving this target may require statistical smoothing [9]. 5. **Local Government Debt Resolution** - Onshore clients appreciate the ongoing local government debt resolution efforts, viewing them as beneficial for restoring local government functionality and improving government spending [10][12]. - This contrasts with offshore clients who see it merely as a debt swap with limited growth impact [10]. Additional Important Insights - Onshore clients are more patient regarding policy easing and place greater emphasis on forward guidance from top leadership rather than specific stimulus numbers [9]. - There is a general expectation that the total amount of government bond issuance will increase significantly next year, with potential cuts to RRR and policy rates anticipated [7]. - Clients are cautious about the efficiency of policy implementation in areas such as property and traditional infrastructure [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the concerns and expectations of local clients regarding the Chinese economy and its policies.

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： positioning continues to gradually climb but it remains low overall ( Exhibit 18 ). M Foundation | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 V i e w p o i n t | 27 Nov 2024 15:38:31 ET │ 30 pages Global Shipping shuinu9870 Global Supply Chain – Freight Tracker – Downside to Rates 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： CITI'S TAKE We update our weekly freight data tracker which covers both sea and air freight. We see capacity growth of +6% YoY in December and +9% YoY in Nove ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929) Overweight 1929.HK, 1929 HK 1H in line; quarter to date trend improving; maintain OW shuinu9870 Chow Tai Fook (CTF) reported 1HFY25 (ending Sep-24) results with sales/earnings down 20%/44% yoy, in line with preliminary announcements (sales/earnings down 18-22%/42-46%) on 22 October. This weak result ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： FICC Research Credit Research 26 November 2024 China Property 10 takeaways from expert call shuinu9870 We turn more skeptical on sustainability of new home sales after the call and we believe policy delivery is the key. We maintain the VNKRLE '27s and '29s at UW on unclear repayment path. We think it is premature to tur ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Research J P M O R G A N | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 22 November 2024 | | Correction (See disclosures for details) | | This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland Chin ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Global Research J P M O R G A N | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 22 November 2024 | | Correction (See disclosures for details) | | This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland Chin ...