Group 1: Loan and Financing Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 500 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,090 billion yuan from September and 238.4 billion yuan from October 2022[3] - The total new social financing scale in October was 13,958 billion yuan, down 23,676 billion yuan from September and 4,483 billion yuan from October 2022[6] - From January to October, new RMB loans totaled 16.52 trillion yuan, which is 3.96 trillion yuan less than the same period last year[3] Group 2: Household and Corporate Loans - In October, household loans increased by 160 billion yuan, which is 340 billion yuan less than September and 1,946 billion yuan more than October 2022[3] - Corporate loans in October were 1,300 billion yuan, a decrease of 13,600 billion yuan from September and 3,863 billion yuan from October 2022[4] - The total social financing stock at the end of October reached 403.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8%[6] Group 3: Deposit and Monetary Data - New RMB deposits in October were 600 billion yuan, down 31,400 billion yuan from September and 446 billion yuan from October 2022[7] - M2 balance grew by 7.5% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the end of September[7] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank borrowing in October was 1.59%, down 0.19 percentage points from the previous month[8] Group 4: Market Predictions - It is predicted that new RMB loans in November will increase seasonally to around 800 billion yuan[8] - The overall economic activity is expected to show signs of improvement based on the recovery in MI and M2 growth rates[2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the upstream raw materials sector [1]. Core Insights - The upstream raw materials sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 10.6 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9% as of November 5, 2024 [1][12]. - The best-performing sub-sector is non-ferrous metals, with a growth of 17.2%, while the worst is basic chemicals, which only increased by 0.2% [1][12]. - The report highlights significant disparities in performance among state-owned enterprises (SOEs) across different industries, with some companies showing substantial profit growth while others face losses [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall performance of the upstream raw materials sector has been mixed, with non-ferrous metals leading and basic chemicals lagging behind [1][12]. - Specific performance metrics include: - Non-ferrous metals: +17.2% - Steel: +5.6% - Oil and petrochemicals: +4.3% - Coal: +3.7% - Basic chemicals: +0.2% [1][12]. SOE Performance in Q1-3 2024 - Non-ferrous metals: 17 SOEs, 15 profitable. China Aluminum's revenue was 173.78 billion yuan, down 7.8%, with a net profit of 9.02 billion yuan, up 68.5% [1][17]. - Steel: 11 SOEs, 3 profitable. Baosteel's revenue was 242.86 billion yuan, down 4.9%, with a net profit of 5.88 billion yuan, down 29.6% [1][17]. - Oil and petrochemicals: 14 SOEs, 12 profitable. China Petroleum's revenue was 2256.28 billion yuan, down 1.1%, with a net profit of 132.52 billion yuan, up 0.7% [1][17]. - Basic chemicals: 21 SOEs, 12 profitable. Sinochem International's revenue was 39.49 billion yuan, down 8.2%, with a net profit of -0.52 billion yuan [1][17]. - Coal: 5 SOEs, all profitable. China Shenhua's revenue was 253.90 billion yuan, up 0.6%, with a net profit of 46.07 billion yuan, down 4.5% [1][17]. Profitability and Operational Metrics - Non-ferrous metals: Overall profit growth of 30.42%, with ROE increasing by 1.84 percentage points [3]. - Steel: Overall profit decline of 193.59%, with total losses of 6.72 billion yuan [3]. - Oil and petrochemicals: Profit growth of 3.23%, with total profits of 419.87 billion yuan [3]. - Basic chemicals: Profit decline of 3.15%, with total profits of 5.87 billion yuan [3]. - Coal: Profit decline of 6.34%, with total profits of 100.26 billion yuan [3]. Industry Control - Non-ferrous metals: SOEs account for 18.05% of revenue, with a net profit share of 19.13% [4]. - Steel: SOEs account for 39.50% of revenue, with a net profit share of 189.45% [5]. - Oil and petrochemicals: SOEs dominate with 86.52% of revenue and 96.54% of net profit [5]. - Basic chemicals: SOEs account for 10.0% of revenue and 3.93% of net profit [5]. - Coal: SOEs account for 40.52% of revenue and 56.45% of net profit [5]. Investment Recommendations - Non-ferrous metals: Favorable performance with potential benefits from monetary policy changes in the US and China [6]. - Steel: Poor overall performance, but potential for recovery due to policy stimulus [6]. - Oil and petrochemicals: Strong market position, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like China Petroleum and Sinopec [6]. - Basic chemicals: Caution advised due to declining profitability, with a focus on leading firms like Luxi Chemical and Andisu [6]. - Coal: Strong performance from SOEs, particularly from Electric Power Investment, which shows the best fundamentals [6][7].

Economic Outlook - The global economy continues to exhibit low growth, with forecasts for 2024 from the IMF and OECD predicting growth rates of 3.2% and 2.6% respectively, below the historical average of 3.8% from 2000 to 2019[2] - Major developed economies are showing signs of recovery, but trade and investment growth are under pressure due to unilateralism and geopolitical risks[2] Inflation and Price Trends - Inflation in major developed economies has decreased to around 2%-3% from peaks in 2022, but challenges remain due to geopolitical tensions affecting commodity prices[3] - Domestic inflation is expected to show a moderate recovery, supported by macroeconomic policies and improved demand, with CPI anticipated to rise moderately by year-end[3] Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, emphasizing the need for increased precision in monetary policy adjustments to balance short-term and long-term goals[4] - Recent actions include a total reduction of 1 percentage point in the reserve requirement ratio and a decrease in the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5%[4] Liquidity and Financial Stability - The central bank plans to enhance liquidity through various tools, including reverse repos and MLF, while also coordinating with fiscal policies to support economic stability[4] - The report indicates a potential further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points in the coming months[4] Monetary Supply Adjustments - The central bank is revising the monetary supply statistics to better reflect real conditions, including incorporating personal demand deposits into M1 statistics[5] - The relevance of M2 as a monetary policy indicator is decreasing, with a shift towards focusing on interest rate adjustments rather than strict quantity targets[5] Interest Rate Transmission - There are existing barriers in the transmission of policy rates to market rates, particularly affecting loan and deposit rates, which limits the flexibility of monetary policy adjustments[6] - The central bank is implementing measures to stabilize bank net interest margins while reducing financing costs for the real economy[7] Long-term Interest Rate Risks - The report does not extensively address risks associated with long-term bond yields, indicating that the central bank respects market-driven outcomes in yield formation[10] - The likelihood of further reserve requirement reductions is increasing, which may help control the risks of rising long-term interest rates[10]

Group 1: State-Owned Enterprises Mergers and Acquisitions - During the week of November 4 to November 10, there were a total of 10 mergers and acquisitions involving state-owned enterprises, with 0 from central state-owned enterprises and 10 from local state-owned enterprises, including Guotai Junan's absorption merger of 100% equity of Haitong Securities [1][3]. Group 2: Corporate Dynamics - State Power Investment Corporation's listed subsidiary, Electric Power Investment and Financing (000958), announced progress regarding the exchange of convertible bonds and the resulting equity change exceeding 1% [1][3]. - Minmetals Group's listed company, Zhongtung High-tech (000657), released a draft report on the issuance of shares and cash payment for asset acquisition along with supporting fundraising [1][3]. Group 3: Technological Innovation Mergers - Two mergers related to technological innovation were reported: Donghu Gaoxin acquired a portion of Prolog's equity, and Zhaoyi Innovation acquired 70% equity of Suzhou Saixin [1][3].

Export Performance - In October, China's exports reached $309.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%[1] - The trade surplus for October was $95.72 billion, with imports at $213.34 billion, down 2.3% year-on-year[1] - From January to October, total exports amounted to $292.65 billion, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year growth[1] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the United States grew by 8.1%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from September[1] - Exports to the European Union rose by 12.7%, up 11.4 percentage points from September[1] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 15.8%, a rise of 10.3 percentage points from September[1] Product-Specific Insights - High-tech product exports in October grew by 9.1%, with integrated circuit exports up 17.7%[2] - Mechanical and electrical products saw a 13.7% year-on-year increase, with general machinery exports surging by 30.3%[3] - October's automotive exports experienced a significant decline of 21.8% compared to September[3] Import Performance - October imports totaled $213.34 billion, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with a more pronounced decline in certain categories[4] - High-tech product imports grew by 8.8%, although some categories like LCD modules saw a decline of 4.7%[5] - The import of mechanical and electrical products fell by 2.4% year-on-year, with automotive imports plummeting by 47.6%[4] Future Outlook - November's export growth is expected to be lower than in October, primarily due to a lower base effect[6] - Analysts suggest that the automotive and shipbuilding sectors may continue to face challenges in export performance[7] - Opportunities in the integrated circuit sector are anticipated due to higher growth rates in related exports[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the first three quarters of 2024, the A-share market experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.15% and the CSI 300 Index increasing by 17.1%. The defense and military industry index rose by 2.44%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 14.66 percentage points [1] - Among the 42 listed defense and military state-owned enterprises (SOEs), 20 companies saw their stock prices increase, while 22 companies experienced declines. The top three gainers were China Shipbuilding (42.62%), China Heavy Industry (33.41%), and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry (23.9%) [1] - In terms of profitability, 32 out of 42 companies reported profits, with a total net profit of 170.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.45%. The highest net profit was reported by AVIC Optoelectronics at 2.513 billion yuan, down 8.23% year-on-year [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The defense and military SOEs collectively achieved a total profit of 19.875 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 18.7%. The overall asset-liability ratio for these SOEs was 55.74%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The operating revenue for the defense and military SOEs was 312.137 billion yuan, down 5.17% year-on-year, accounting for 82.86% of the total industry revenue [3] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The net asset return rate for the defense and military SOEs was 3.21%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. Labor productivity fell by 11.96% to 1.0383 million yuan per person [2] - The number of employees in these SOEs reached 300,600, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year, despite a decline in overall operating revenue [2] Industry Control and Competitive Advantage - The defense and military SOEs maintained a dominant position in terms of operating revenue, net profit, total assets, and net assets, with respective industry shares of 82.86%, 79.58%, 80.91%, and 71.76% [3] - Compared to the full year of 2023, the first three quarters of 2024 showed an increase in the proportion of various metrics, indicating an enhanced industry position for defense and military SOEs in national security [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [1][3]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector has shown a significant decline in profitability, with net profit for central state-owned automotive companies dropping by 42.49% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, amounting to 81.02 billion [2]. - The report highlights the impact of government subsidy policies introduced in September 2024, which have positively influenced car sales in October, suggesting a supportive effect for Q4 sales [3]. - The overall performance of the automotive sector has lagged behind the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 11.98% compared to the 17.10% rise of the CSI 300 index, resulting in a 5.12 percentage point underperformance [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Industry Market Review for Q1-Q3 2024 - The automotive sector's performance ranked 9th among various industries, with 20 central state-owned enterprises, of which 8 saw stock price increases and 12 experienced declines [1]. 2. Performance of Central State-Owned Automotive Companies - In the past three years, the net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies has shown a downward trend, with contributions to overall industry net profit decreasing from 13.53% in 2022 to 7.11% in 2024 [2]. 3. Key Financial Indicators for Central State-Owned Automotive Companies - The report indicates a notable decrease in overall profitability, despite stable R&D investment intensity and improved labor productivity [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Continuous attention is recommended for state-owned automotive companies that are empowered by intelligent technology and exhibit strong growth drivers [3].

M&A Overview - A total of 17 M&A events involving state-owned enterprises occurred in the week from October 28 to November 3, 2024, with 3 events from central state-owned enterprises and 14 from local state-owned enterprises[1] - China Aluminum acquired 100% equity of Chalco Shandong and 100% equity of Zhongzhou Aluminum[1] - Sanfeng Environment absorbed and merged with Sanfeng New Power, acquiring 100% equity[1] Corporate Dynamics - China Communications Construction Group's listed company, CCCC Real Estate (000736), announced the acquisition of 100% equity of CCCC Property Service Group[1] - YTO Group, a subsidiary of China Machinery Industry Group, reported progress on a major asset sale through its listed company YTO (601038)[1] - China Resources Group's listed company, China Resources Sanjiu (000999), announced progress on a major asset restructuring[1] - Another subsidiary of China Machinery Industry Group, Guoji Automobile (600335), reported progress on the sale of stock assets from its wholly-owned subsidiary[1] Technology Innovation M&A - Two technology innovation-related M&A events were reported: Inspur Information acquired 100% equity of Network Technology, and Ningbo Jingda planned a private placement to acquire 100% equity of Wuxi Micro Research[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underperformance in industrial investment and M&A, policy risks, and worse-than-expected industry operating conditions[3]

有色金属周度观察 中性 市市场表现截至 2024.11.4 分析师：葛寿净 登记编码：S1490522060001 邮箱：geshoujing@crsec.com.cn 证券研究报告 市场研究部 2024 年 11 月 4 日 行业研究 周度有色指数表现 上周（20241028-20241103）有色金属板块涨跌幅为 1.8%，在中信 30 个行业指数中，涨跌幅按大小排 8 位，相对表现较好。分板块看， 上周涨跌幅表现较好的是稀土及磁性材料(中信)14%；表现较差的黄 金-1.6%。从公司表现看，上周涨跌幅从大到小排列，居前的为正海 磁材 50.2%、云南锗业 33.1%、中润资源 27.6%、中科磁业 26.9%、 大地熊 24.9%；居后的为玉龙股份-9.3%、中国铝业-6.5%、宝钛股份 -6.4%、明泰铝业-6.3%、楚江新材-6.1%。 有色行业周度观察 贵金属主要是黄金和白银，根据最新数据（2024/10/28-2024/11/1）， SHFE 黄金区间涨跌幅为 0.5%，SHFE 白银涨跌幅为-3.0%。 工 业 金 属 品 种 价 格 大多下跌 。 具 体 看 ， 六 大 工 业 金 属 品 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In October, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from September, marking its return above the critical line after five months[3] - The Production Index was at 52.0%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating accelerated production activities in the manufacturing sector[4] - The New Orders Index remained at 50.0%, showing that overall market demand in manufacturing was stable compared to the previous month[3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from September[5] - The Construction Business Activity Index decreased to 50.4%, down 0.3 percentage points, while the Services Business Activity Index rose to 50.1%, up 0.2 percentage points[7] - The New Orders Index for non-manufacturing improved to 47.2%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, indicating a recovery in market demand[7] Group 3: Price Indices and Economic Outlook - The Major Raw Material Purchase Price Index rose to 53.4, an increase of 8.3 percentage points from September, while the Factory Price Index was at 49.9, up 5.9 percentage points but still below the critical line[4] - The forecast for November suggests continued improvement in the Manufacturing PMI due to the impact of new policies and the gradual effect of existing policies[9] - Risks include potential unexpected developments in the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[9]