SDICSI 2025 年 2 月 24 日 恒指及港股通名单观察 恒生指数成分股没变动，但仍需关注组合比重重整带来的波动。恒生指数有限公 司于周五公布 Q4 指数成分股检讨结果，结果将于 3 月 10 日生效。恒生指数 （HSI）成分股没有变动，成分股数目维持 83 只。 不过，即使恒生指数没有成分股变动，我们要注意个别指数成分股的比重仍会有 较大变动。这是因为恒生指数成分股的比重上限设定为 8%，重磅股的比重将在 季度检讨生效时重设为 8%（见附录一）。 截至 2 月 19 日，阿里巴巴 9988.HK、腾讯 700.HK、汇控 0005.HK 的比重为 10.12% / 8.48% / 8.28%，将会于生效日调低至 8%，对应比重减幅为 2.12 / 0.48 / 0.28 个百分点，阿里巴巴所受的影响最大。 因应上述三个股份的比重降低，其他成分股的比重普遍上升，其中工行 1398.HK 因为流通系数上调（从 90%升至 95%），其比重由 3.01%升至 3.31%，升幅达 0.30 个百分点。 由于市场有不少被动基金及 ETF 如盈富基金 2800.HK（市值约 1680 亿港元）追 踪恒生指数， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.6 HKD, representing a potential upside of 23.9% from the recent closing price of 11.7 HKD [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 18.8 billion USD for Q3 of the fiscal year 2024/25, marking a 20% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 693 million USD, which is a significant 106% increase year-over-year [1]. - The company's diversified growth engines are accelerating, with all main business segments performing exceptionally well [1]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.55 billion USD and 1.47 billion USD for the fiscal years 2024/25 and 2025/26, respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Smart Devices Business - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) revenue grew by 12% to 13.78 billion USD, with a segment profit margin of 7.3% [2]. - The company continues to strengthen its leading position in the personal computer market, with notable sales in gaming and commercial PCs [2]. - The smartphone segment, particularly the Motorola brand, saw double-digit revenue growth and an increase in global market share, exceeding 6% in the global smartphone market (excluding China) [2]. Infrastructure Solutions Business - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) revenue surged by 59% to 3.94 billion USD, achieving record high revenues for three consecutive quarters [2]. - The business successfully turned profitable with an operating profit of 1 million USD, a significant increase of 39 million USD year-over-year, driven by strong demand for servers due to cloud investments and enterprise business recovery [2]. - The company’s advanced liquid cooling product, Neptune, is expanding its application range across multiple industries, indicating potential for continued growth [2]. Solutions Services Business - The Solutions Services Group (SSG) revenue increased by 12% to 2.26 billion USD, maintaining a strong operating profit margin of 20% [3]. - There was significant growth in operational services and project solutions, with service orders increasing for five consecutive quarters [3]. - The ongoing democratization of AI and the proliferation of AI applications are expected to bolster demand in the industry, with the company aiming to solidify its leading position in edge AI [3]. Financial and Valuation Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to recover from a decline in 2023, with expected growth rates of 19.4% and 9.7% for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 15.8% to 16.5% in the coming years [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve to 24.0% by 2025, indicating strong profitability [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Meta Platforms with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $850, representing a potential upside of 19% from the current price of $736.67 [6][4]. Core Insights - Meta Platforms maintains a strong position as a global leader in social media, with 3.35 billion daily active users across its core products, accounting for approximately 60% of global internet users [2][10]. - The company's investment in AI is expected to enhance its social ecosystem and improve advertising efficiency, with significant growth anticipated in its AI-driven advertising solutions [3][4]. - Key developments to watch for in 2025 include increased penetration of Advantage+, commercialization progress of Reels and Threads, the release of the Llama 4 model, and the launch of new smart glasses [4][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Meta Platforms, founded in 2004, has grown to become the largest social media platform globally, with its core products including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, collectively known as the Family of Apps [17][10]. - As of Q4 2024, Meta's Family of Apps has a daily active user base of 3.35 billion, representing 60% of global internet users and 63% of global social media users [17][10]. Advertising Revenue - Advertising is the core business model for Meta, contributing approximately 98% of its revenue, with a significant focus on automated advertising solutions [3][12]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% for advertising revenue over the next three years, driven by increased user engagement with Reels and the Advantage+ suite [3][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from $134.9 billion in 2023 to $189.1 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% expected in 2025 [5][14]. - Net profit is anticipated to reach $67.1 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of 35.5% [5][14]. Valuation - The report assigns a valuation of 32 times the 2025 earnings, which is approximately 20% lower than the current forward P/E ratio of the Nasdaq [4][6]. - The target price of $850 reflects a strong outlook for Meta's advertising business and its investments in AI technology [4][6].

微信接入 DeepSeek 灰度测试，带动产业链 估值回升 报告摘要 2025 年 1 月，国内人工智能初创公司 DeepSeek 正式发布最新开源模型 DeepSeek-R1，在全球范围引发广泛关注与讨论。目前行业普遍认为 DeepSeek 带来了两个里程碑性质的意义：1.算力成本投入表现出来的性能超出行业认知， 用于训练的成本可能大大降低；2.开源路线对大公司闭源路线的底层颠覆。 事件概述 2 月 15 日，腾讯微信搜一搜在调用混元大模型的同时，正式灰度测试 接入 DeepseekR1，灰度测试范围内用户可免费使用 Deepseek-R1 满血版模型。 此外，腾讯旗下腾讯云 AI 代码助手、腾讯元宝 APP 等多款产品也纷纷接入该模 型，拓展了腾讯 AI 的应用场景。 技术互补与开源优势提升腾讯估值 从长期看，此次合作有望提升腾讯的业务竞 争力和盈利能力，从而推动其估值上升。一方面，微信搜索体验的优化可能吸引 更多用户使用，增加用户粘性，进而提升广告收入等核心业务收入；另一方面， 基于 AI 技术的新业务拓展，如付费 AI 服务、企业级 AI 解决方案输出等，将为 腾讯开辟新的收入增长路径，打开新的估值空 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the online travel industry, specifically for Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, with expected revenue growth rates of 19% and 20% for 2024 respectively [4] Core Insights - Domestic tourism revenue during the Spring Festival reached 677 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with total tourist numbers at 500 million, reflecting a 5.9% growth [2][3] - The report forecasts a 10% year-on-year growth in total domestic tourism revenue for 2025, estimating it to reach 6.6 trillion yuan [2][4] - Online travel platforms are expected to benefit from increased online penetration, various value-added services, and the continued recovery of outbound tourism [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Performance - Spring Festival tourism revenue and visitor numbers met expectations, with revenue increasing by 7% and visitor numbers by 5.9% compared to the previous year [2] - Average spending per tourist was 1,351 yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a stable recovery in consumer spending [2] Travel Consumption Trends - Future tourism spending will not only focus on hotel ADR and airfare but also on diverse travel services like car rentals and unique attraction tickets [2] - The average airfare for economy class dropped by 17% year-on-year, yet overall tourism spending still saw growth, highlighting the demand for varied travel experiences [2] Observations on Travel Patterns - The report noted an increase in multi-segment trips during the Spring Festival, with over 20% of return orders occurring in the five days post-holiday [3] - High-end hotels in county areas are gaining popularity, surpassing chain hotels for the first time [3] - Outbound travel orders have doubled, particularly from lower-tier markets, indicating significant potential for growth in this segment [3] OTA Platform Performance - Ctrip is projected to achieve revenue growth of 19% in 2024 and 16% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 34.2% and 35.5% respectively [4] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to see a 20% increase in core OTA business revenue in 2024, with an overall adjusted net profit margin of 16.0% in 2024 [4] - The report emphasizes that the online travel sector's revenue potential is driven by increased online penetration, recovery in hotel and airfare prices, and the growth of outbound tourism [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.0, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HKD 14.3 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record monthly sales figure of 267,000 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 27% [1][2]. - The sales performance of the company's brands shows a positive trend, with the Geely brand selling 225,000 vehicles (up 30%), while Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands experienced a decline and modest growth, respectively [2][3]. - The company has set a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles for 2025, with significant contributions expected from the Geely brand, which is positioned in the mid-to-low-end market [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In January, the total sales reached 267,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month increase of 27% [1][2]. - The Geely brand's sales were 225,000 units, showing a 30% increase year-on-year, while Zeekr's sales were 12,000 units, down 5% [2]. Brand Strategy - The company has completed internal resource integration, leading to clearer brand positioning, which is expected to support long-term growth [3]. - The Geely brand targets cost-conscious consumers and is entering a technology explosion phase with new architectures and technologies [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth from HKD 179.2 billion in FY2023 to HKD 288.7 billion in FY2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34% [10]. - Net profit is projected to increase significantly from HKD 5.3 billion in FY2023 to HKD 13.8 billion in FY2025, with a notable growth rate of 197% in FY2024 [10].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in US consumer ETFs, specifically the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) and Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) [4] Core Insights - December retail and food service sales in the US totaled $729.2 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, indicating a healthy consumer environment [1][8] - Online retail sales reached $127 billion in December, growing by 6.0% year-on-year, while grocery stores also performed well with sales of $15.5 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year [2][9] - Consumer confidence is on the rise, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index at 73.2 in January 2025, reflecting improved consumer sentiment [20][21] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - December retail and food service sales were $729.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1][8] - Online retail sales were $127 billion, up 6.0% year-on-year, while grocery store sales reached $15.5 billion, growing 3.7% year-on-year [2][9] Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The consumer confidence index for January 2025 was 73.2, slightly down from 74 in December 2024 but significantly higher than mid-2024 levels [20][21] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in December, indicating a mild rebound in inflation [20][21] Income and Spending Trends - The adjusted disposable income per capita in November was $65,100, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.61% [4][20] - Personal consumption expenditures increased by 5.45% year-on-year in November, indicating stable spending [20]

Economic Indicators and Historical Context - During Trump's previous term, the average monthly CPI increase was 0.16%, and core CPI was 0.156%, indicating no significant inflation surge[4] - The average unemployment rate during Trump's term was 5.0%, or 3.96% excluding the COVID-19 period, showing a declining trend pre-pandemic[9][10] - Retail sales during Trump's term averaged a 0.39% monthly increase, with core retail sales (excluding volatile items) at 0.5%, reflecting stable consumer spending[14] Corporate and Market Performance - S&P 500 companies saw an average earnings growth of 7.13% during Trump's term, with a cumulative increase of 67.8% and a CAGR of 13.8%[28] - Republican presidencies historically yielded an average S&P 500 return of 6.5% annually, while Democratic presidencies averaged 10%, though excluding George W. Bush, Republican returns were 8.7%, similar to Democrats[32][33] 2025 Investment Opportunities - Treasury yields surged ahead of the election, with the 10-year yield rising from 3.6% in September to 4.5% in November, impacting long-term bond ETFs like TLT, which fell over 11%[39] - Small-cap stocks, particularly the Russell 2000, historically outperform the S&P 500 during economic recoveries, with an average outperformance of 27.3% and absolute returns of 60.2% over 19.4 months[52][53] - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are expected to benefit from favorable regulatory changes under Trump, with Bitcoin prices surpassing $100,000 and gaining recognition as a competitor to gold[57][61] Tariff and Trade Policies - Tariff revenues increased from $3.5 billion in June 2018 to $6 billion by December 2018, with 2024 monthly revenues averaging $6.6 billion, reflecting ongoing trade tensions[62] - Proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could increase import costs by $330 billion annually, equivalent to 4% of U.S. retail sales, with potential tax revenues of $1.2 trillion over a decade[66] Sector and Market Outlook - Traditional sectors like finance and energy are expected to benefit from deregulation and tax cuts, while small-cap stocks are poised for outperformance in a potential soft landing scenario[49][72] - A shift towards sector rotation is anticipated, with small-cap and traditional sectors gaining momentum, while large-cap tech stocks face valuation pressures[72]