港股晨报 2025 年 5 月 30 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：关税问题继续压制投资情绪 美国国际贸易法院作出禁制美国总统特朗普"解放日"关税的裁定，利好投资 情绪。不过，港股昨日早段没有作出大反应，大市略为低开，随后才走高。恒 指低开 17 点报 23240 点，略为反复后逐步发力，午后最高曾升 345 点至 23603 点。恒指最终收报 23573 点，全日升 315 点或 1.35%。连续两日萎缩后，大 市交投回升，主板成交报 2269 亿港元，较上日多 25.5%。 行业表现方面，12 个恒生综合行业指数中，只有必需性消费逆市下跌 0.24%， 其余 11 个板块上升，当中医疗保健表现一枝独秀，涨 4.09%。可选消费、工 业制品表现也佳，分别涨 2.57%及 1.70%，高于恒生综指的 1.38%涨幅。 港股通交易连续 3 日录得净流入，昨日北水净流入 43.82 亿港元，较上日增加 22.5%。北水净买入最多的个股依次是美团 3690.HK、众安在线 6060.HK、石 药集团 1093.HK；净卖出最多的依次是中芯 981.HK、小米 1810.HK、小鹏汽 ...

新款游戏上线表现火热，2025 财年扭转值得 期待 事件：友谊时光 6820.HK 主要从事手游研运，且主要面向女性群体，至今研 发并运营超过 70 多个不同版本的 20 余款手游，目前的核心游戏包括《浮生》 系列、《杜拉拉升职记》、《凌云诺》、《熹妃传》系列。2025 年 5 月 28 日公司在派对游戏赛道拓展的品类《暴吵萌厨》正式开启公测，在预下载阶段， 这款新游便表现瞩目，在多个平台登顶下载榜。 报告摘要 派对新游《暴吵萌厨》上线 5 月 28 日，友谊时光旗下欢乐厨房派对手游《暴吵 萌厨》正式上线，开启全平台公测。游戏凭借多人合作实时竞技核心玩法，搭配 美食题材、趣味美术设计和丰富游戏内容，玩法对标 Steam 平台成熟运营游戏《胡 闹厨房》系列，吸引大量玩家，上线便在苹果 AppStore、小米、VIVO、TapTap 等多渠道榜单中登顶。早在预下载阶段，游戏就已表现突出，达成了 800 万预约 的成绩，属于"大 DAU 派对手游"赛道的潜力黑马。 市场对新游反馈积极 从当前市场反馈来看，《暴吵萌厨》在上线后七麦数据 iOS 免费榜排名连续 3 天第一，总榜第三，在传播方面形成了完整闭环。其玩法轻松 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 5 月 29 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：美国关税政策遇阻力，有利市场情绪回稳 港股昨日高开低走，恒指高開 3 點后早段最高升 94 點至 23476 點，随后沽压 涌现，午后恒指最低跌 201 点报 23180 点，尾盘略为回顺。恒指最终收报 23258 点，跌 123 点或 0.53%。大市交投连续两日回落，昨日主板成交报 1808 亿港 元，较上日少 11.05%。 港股通交易连续两日录得净流入，但金额减少。北水昨日净流入 35.78 亿港元， 较上日减少 70.1%。北水净买入最多的个股依次是美团 3690.HK、中移动 941.HK、中海油 883.HK；净卖出最多的依次是小米 1810.HK、恒生中国企业 2828.HK、快手 1024.HK。 行业表现方面，12 个恒生综指行业指数中，7 个上升，5 个下跌。领涨板块为 必需性消费、能源、工业及综合企业，涨幅为 1.32%-0.62%；领跌的板块则包 括可选消费、资讯科技、医疗保健及金融，跌幅为 0.93%-0.60%，跑输下跌 0.51%的恒生综指。 美股昨晚下跌，三大股指跌 0.51% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 revenue and adjusted profit exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and adjusted net profit of 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [2][4] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - The company is prioritizing long-term ecological investments over short-term profit margins, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in profitability but is expected to strengthen market share and ecological balance in the long run [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue was 86.6 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations by 1.4% and 1.3% from the report and market respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 18% and 13% [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin increasing by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] - New business revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, with losses narrowing to 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 18% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - Core local business maintained steady growth, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% year-on-year respectively [3] - The management emphasized a commitment to compete effectively in the instant retail sector, planning to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years [3] - The company reported strong growth in the takeaway and flash purchase segments, with daily order volume growth accelerating to approximately 10% [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a 13% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - For the full year 2025, total revenue is projected to grow by 15%, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is adjusted to 177 HKD, representing a potential upside of 34% from the recent closing price [4][6]

长期生态投入优先级高于短期利润率表现，维持买入 SDICSI 2025 年 05 月 28 日 美团 (3690.HK) 美团 1 季度收入/经调整利润超市场预期 1%/13%，核心本地商业经营利润同比增 39%，超市场预期 10%，年活跃用户数及年活跃商户数创新高。考虑供给及需求 侧投入加码，我们下调 10%全年核心本地商业经营利润，短期利润率或有波动， 但利好长期份额优势巩固和生态平衡。维持买入评级。 报告摘要 1 季度业绩超预期：总收入 866 亿元，同比增 18%，略超我们/市场预期 1.4%/1.3% （12 亿元/11 亿元）；经调整净利润 109 亿元，同比增 46%，超我们/市场预期 18%/13% （17 亿元/12 亿元），主要因营销费用管控好于预期。分业务看，核心本地商业收 入同比增 18%，分部经营利润同比增 39%，经营利润率同比提升至 3 个百分点至 21%，我们估算外卖&闪购 UE、到店酒旅经营利润率均有同比改善。新业务收入同 比增 19%，亏损 23 亿元，同比收窄 18%，环比略微扩大 4%，主要反映海外投入。 核心本地商业维持稳健增长态势：1 季度配送/佣金/在线营销收入同 ...

SDICSI 2025 年 5 月 27 日 滔搏 (6110.HK) 持续深化品牌合作，高股息提升回报率 事件：滔搏公布 FY2502 的经营表现，期内收入同比下滑 6.6%至 270.1 亿元， 归母净利润同比下滑 41.9%至 12.9 亿元，基本符合预期。此外，公司宣派末 期股息 0.02 元/股及特别股息 0.12 元/股，全年派息率 135%。综合考虑，我 们预测 FY26/27/28 的 EPS 为 0.21/0.22/0.23 元，给予 2026/02 财年 16 倍 PE，目标价 3.6 港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告摘要 线下消费疲软带来收入下滑，线上录得正向增长。FY25 集团收入同比下滑 6.6% 至 270.1 亿元，主要是由于线下消费疲软、客流减少；归母净利润同比下滑 41.9%至 12.9 亿元，利润下滑大于收入，主要是由于线下固定费用高，导致经 营负杠杆，尽管线上录得正增长，仍无法抵消线下经营的负面影响。分不同品 牌来看，主力品牌（Nike、Adidas）收入同比下滑 6.1%至 233.1 亿元，其他 品牌收入同比下滑 9.9%至 35.0 亿元。毛利率方面，由于库存加速出清 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 5 月 28 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：美欧休战，刺激美股反弹 港股昨天三大指数小幅反弹，恒生指数涨 0.43%、国企指数涨 0.38%、恒生科 技指数涨 0.48%。大市成交 2,032.68 亿元。主板总卖空金额 375.59 亿元，占 可卖空股票总成交金额为 20.711%，连续两天高于 20%，明显高于 5 月中旬 的平均水平。南向资金（北水）方面，港股通交易转净流入，北水净流入 119.75 亿港元，打破前两天净流出的局面。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入 最多的是盈富基金 2800.HK 、美团 3690.HK 、恒生中国企业 2828.HK ； 净卖出最多的是腾讯 700.HK 、阿里巴巴 9988.HK 。 北向资金方面，5 月 27 日北向资金共成交 1110.63 亿元，占两市总成交额的 11.12%。沪股通方面，成交额前三的个股为紫金矿业 601899.SH（7.63 亿元）、 寒武纪 688256.SH（7.32 亿元）、贵州茅台 600519.SH（7.26 亿元）。深股通 方面，比亚迪 002594.SZ 以 24 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent rebound in the US stock market is questioned as a potential "dead cat bounce" amid ongoing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [5][11][12] - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 2.6% last week, halting a rebound that had been ongoing since mid-April, primarily due to poor US Treasury auction results and renewed trade war threats from Trump [11][12][29] - The market remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring developments in the trade war and the Federal Reserve's communications [5][11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US retail sales showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% in April, which was slightly above market expectations, but several categories, particularly those reliant on imports, saw declines [34][35] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, has been on a downward trend, dropping from 57.0 in March to 50.8 in May, indicating persistent weakness in consumer sentiment [34][35] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, which was below expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a significant drop of 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since 2015 [40][41] Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment - The upward trend in credit risk spreads typically lasts over six months and is associated with bear markets, indicating a potential negative cycle in corporate fundamentals and market sentiment [16][17] - Current credit spreads are rising, suggesting that market volatility may continue into the second or third quarter of 2025 [16][17] - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over rising debt levels and expanding budget deficits, which could further impact market confidence [29][30] Group 4: Trade War Implications - The trade war narrative remains central to market movements, with recent negotiations between the US and China leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs, which briefly boosted the S&P 500 index [11][12] - The potential for increased tariffs on EU goods and non-US produced products has raised fears of a broader trade conflict, which could significantly impact bilateral trade and market stability [11][12][46] - The upcoming legislative discussions regarding the "Beautiful Act" could exacerbate the federal deficit, complicating the economic landscape further [24][25]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened lower and closed down 318 points or 1.35% at 23,282 points, with a trading volume of 223.5 billion HKD, an increase of 9.75% from the previous day [2] - Northbound capital recorded a net outflow of 1.507 billion HKD, an increase of 32.3% from the previous day, with Meituan, China Mobile, and Horizon Robotics being the most bought stocks, while Tencent, Alibaba, and the Tracker Fund were the most sold [2] Group 2: Meituan Q1 Performance - Meituan's total revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations by 1.3% (1.1 billion HKD), with core local business and new business revenues growing by 18% and 19% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit exceeded expectations by 13%, with core local business profits rising by 39% and operating profit margin (OPM) improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [4] - New business commission revenue surged by 85% to 1.2 billion HKD, reflecting strong overseas business performance, although the segment reported a loss of 2.3 billion HKD, narrowing by 500 million HKD year-on-year [4] Group 3: Meituan Management Insights - Management emphasized the need for competitive investment and expressed confidence in winning the market, indicating potential fluctuations in profit margins due to increased investments [4] - For the next three years, Meituan plans to invest 100 billion HKD to promote healthy development in the catering industry, while also focusing on supporting small and medium-sized merchants and protecting rider rights [4] Group 4: Tongcheng Travel Q1 Performance - Tongcheng Travel reported total revenue of 4.4 billion HKD in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with core OTA revenue growing by 18% [7] - The operating profit for core OTA increased by 53% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, benefiting from improved subsidy and marketing efficiency [7] - Adjusted net profit rose by 41% to 790 million HKD, exceeding market expectations by 11% [7] Group 5: Tongcheng Travel Strategic Moves - Tongcheng Travel announced plans to fully acquire Wanda Hotel Management for approximately 2.5 billion HKD, which is expected to enhance user demand coverage and potentially increase average transaction value [8] - The acquisition aligns with Tongcheng's existing hotel supply and is anticipated to create synergies that will benefit the company's overall performance [8] Group 6: Financial Forecasts - For Q2, core OTA revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation ticketing revenues projected to increase by 12% and 10% respectively [9] - The overall revenue for 2025 is adjusted to a year-on-year increase of 12%, with core OTA revenue and operating profit expected to rise by 17% and 23% respectively [9] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel is adjusted to 24.4 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 29% from the recent closing price, maintaining a "buy" rating [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,601 points, up 56 points or 0.2% [2] - The total market turnover increased to HKD 203.67 billion, with short-selling amounting to HKD 33.83 billion, representing 16.61% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of HKD 1.139 billion, contrasting with a net inflow of HKD 3.88 billion the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The film sector performed strongly, with Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK) rising 63.83% over four days, driven by optimism regarding its IP merchandise potential [4] - Solar energy stocks like Fuyao Glass (3606.HK) and Rainbow New Energy (00438.HK) showed notable performance, while nuclear power stocks also led gains [4] - The automotive sector benefited from strong retail market growth, with companies like NIO (1316.HK) and Great Wall Motors (2333.HK) recording increases [4] Group 3: Consumption Insights - In April, total retail sales reached CNY 37,174 billion, growing 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumption [7] - The retail sales of household appliances surged by 38.8% year-on-year in April, supported by government subsidies [8] - Food and beverage sectors showed mixed results, with grain and oil retail sales growing 14.0% year-on-year, while automotive retail sales only increased by 0.7% [8] Group 4: Price Trends - The average price of live pigs in May was CNY 7.47 per kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 6.7% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization after a decline [9] - The average price of fresh milk was CNY 3.07 per kg, reflecting a 0.1% decrease month-on-month and a 9.2% decrease year-on-year [9] - Commodity prices showed fluctuations, with corrugated paper prices decreasing by 2.2% month-on-month, while PET prices increased by 3.2% [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies like Mixue Group (2097), which is positioned as a leader in the milk tea market with a strong supply chain [11] - Kang Shifu Holdings (0322) is noted for its cost reduction leading to profit improvement, with a dividend yield of 5.4%, making it an attractive investment [11]