SDICSI 2026 年 2 月 5 日 乐舒适 (2698.HK) 非洲卫品领先者，享受新兴市场成长红利 乐舒适是一家专注于非洲、拉美、中亚等新兴市场的跨国卫生用品公司，主要从事 婴儿纸尿裤、婴儿拉拉裤、卫生巾和湿巾等婴儿及女性卫生用品的开发、制造和销 售。2024 年和 2025 年 1-4 月公司收入为 3.2 和 1.6 亿美元，分别同比增长 10.5% 和 15.5%；净利润为 0.95 和 0.31 亿美元，分别同比增长 47.0%和 8.4%。我们预测 2025/2026/2027 年公司净利润为 1.06/1.29/1.47 亿美元,同比增长 11.5%/21.4% /14.3%，对应每 EPS 收益为 0.18/0.21/0.24 美元。首次覆盖给予"买入"评级， 目标价 38 港元。 报告摘要 专注新兴市场的跨国卫生用品公司，销售网络布局广泛。乐舒适是一家跨国卫生 用品公司，专注于非洲、拉美、中亚等新兴市场，旗下有多个品牌，分别是 Softcare、 Veesper、Maya、Cuettie 及 Clincleer。公司以核心品牌 Softcare 为根基，在婴 儿纸尿裤产品的基础上，持 ...

风险提示：新产品推出及销售不及预期；公司出海进展不及预期；价格竞争；原 材料成本上升。 1 月出口销量大幅增长 2026 年 1 月吉利实现销量 27.0 万辆，同比+1%。出口销量同比大幅增长 121% 至 6.1 万辆。我们认为 2026 年公司的极氪、领克、吉利品牌销量全面向好，处在 强势产品周期，叠加出口放量，带动盈利提升。维持目标价 26 港元，买入评级。 报告摘要 1 月销量同环比提升。2026 年 1 月吉利实现销量 27.0 万辆，同比+1%。出口销量 同比大幅增长 121%至 6.1 万辆。分品牌来看，吉利主品牌、领克、极氪分别实现 销量 21.7/2.9/2.4 万辆，同比增速分别为-3%/-4%/+100%。销量增长主要得益于 出口与极氪品牌销量大幅增长，极氪 9X 销量达 1.1 万辆，连续三个月位居 50 万 级大型 SUV 销量榜首，成交均价 53.8 万元，且大部分用户来自 BBA 等传统豪华 品牌增换购，充分彰显其在高端市场的竞争力。 极氪品牌持续发力，极氪 8X 开始预热。极氪 8X 预计在 3 月上市，8X 基于 SEA-S 超级电混架构打造，是该架构下继 9X 之后第二款 ...

SDICSI 2026 年 1 月 29 日 澳优 (1717.HK) 国内奶粉业务仍然承压 事件：2025 年出生人口为 792 亿，同比下降 17%，出生率为 5.63‰。考虑国 内奶粉行业竞争仍然激烈，并且明年还有竞争加剧的可能，我们预期下半年公 司的业务仍将承压，我们下调 25/26/27 年净利润至 2.5/2.6/2.9 亿元（, 2025/9/4 预测为 3.1/3.5/3.8 亿元），对应每 EPS 收益为 0.16/0.16/0.18 港元（2025/9/4 预测为 0.19/0.21/0.23 港元）。下调至"增持"评级，下调目标价至 2.3 港元 （2025/9/4 预测为 3.0 港元，基于 DCF 及可比公司估值法），较当前股价有 9%的涨幅。 报告摘要 2025 年出生人口大幅下滑。2025 年出生人口为 792 亿，同比下降 17%，出 生率为 5.63‰。2024 年为龙年，因此出生人口出现了小幅攀升，达到 954 万， 因此在 25 年上半年奶粉行业出现了一定程度的竞争缓和。到 25 年下半年，随 着出生人口的影响逐渐显现，行业将继续面临较为激烈的竞争，并且有望持续 到明年。 ...

焦炭行业动态点评 推荐标的：中国旭阳 1907.HK 中国旭阳是全球最大的独立焦炭生产商，2024 年焦炭产量达到 2380 万吨。 24 年公司位于印度尼西亚苏拉威西生产园区年产 480 万吨焦化项目中首 320 万吨焦炭产能已顺利点火及投产，国际市场的开拓进展顺利。25 年上半年焦 炭产能达到 2380 万吨。未来公司还有萍乡 160 万吨的项目在建，产能将会持 续落地。 2025 年上半年，中国旭阳实现总营业收入 205.49 亿元（人民币，下同，列明 除外），同比下降 18.5%；实现净利润 0.87 亿元，同比下降 34%，主要是受到 焦炭价格下跌的影响，焦炭利润承压。行业低谷仍实现盈利，公司通过降本增 效依然实现盈利，展现了优秀的成本管控能力。 当前公司市值为 113 亿港元，对应 MRQ 市净率为 0.83x，估值水平处于历史 极低位置。我们认为公司在成本管控方面有卓越的优势，尽管受到焦炭价格影 响业绩处于低谷期，但是未来随着环保政策的落地以及国内需求的抬升，有望 重新看到业绩增长。作为焦炭板块龙头企业，我们认为在当下市场对于能源相 关板块情绪逐渐高涨的背景下，可以将中国旭阳作为焦炭板块的首要布 ...

SDICSI 2025 年 1 月 28 日 国恩科技 (2768.HK) 国恩科技（2768.HK）IPO 点评报告 报告摘要 公司概览 公司是专注于化工新材料及明胶、胶原蛋白上下游产品的中国供应商。产品包括绿色石化 材料，如芳香烯烃、苯乙烯、聚苯乙烯及有机高分子改性材料及有机高分子复合材料，应用 在汽车、新能源及家电等领域；大健康行业包括明胶、胶原蛋白、空心胶囊等。大化工板块 占收入的95%以上。根据招股书，按照2024年销售收入计，公司是中国第二大有机高分子改 性材料及有机高分子复合材料企业，市场份额2.5%；于2024年，按产能计公司是中国最大的 聚苯乙烯企业。 根据招股书，公司收入稳健增长，2022-2024年度总收入分别约为人民币134.1/174.4/191.9 亿元，2025年首十个月收入174.4亿元，同比+10%。2022-2024年度归母净利分别为 6.63/4.71/6.85亿元，有所波动；2025年首十个月归母净利7.12亿元，同比+40%，有较快增 长。 行业状况及前景 根据招股书引用弗若斯特沙利文，全球有机高分子改性材料和有机高分子复合材料市场规 模预计2025-2029年复合增 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities in IP management, with recent product innovations leading to increased sales potential for Q1 [1][2] - Recent stock buybacks, totaling over 300 million HKD, reflect the company's confidence in its long-term growth prospects and indicate that the stock price is at a relatively low level [1][3] - The company has successfully launched new product lines that have gained significant market traction, suggesting a robust ability to diversify its IP portfolio [2] Summary by Sections Product Performance - The Pucky Knock Knock series blind boxes have gained popularity, showcasing the company's innovative approach to IP [2] - The company has also launched successful series for the New Year and Valentine's Day, indicating strong consumer demand [2] Stock Buyback Activity - The company repurchased 1.4 million shares at an average price of 161 HKD and 500,000 shares at 173 HKD, demonstrating confidence in its stock valuation [3] - The stock buybacks are seen as a strategic move to bolster market confidence and counteract short-selling pressures [3] Market Outlook - The company has a strong presence in overseas markets, with approximately 200 stores globally, and continues to expand its footprint [4] - Future revenue projections indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 373.98 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 186.8% [12] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 20.70, 15.25, and 12.26 respectively, suggesting that the current valuation is relatively low for a high-growth company [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Netflix (NFLX.US) with a target price of $103 [6][20]. Core Insights - Netflix's Q4 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of $12.051 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, driven by subscriber growth, price increases, and advertising revenue [2][10]. - The company ended the quarter with over 325 million subscribers, serving approximately 1 billion users [2]. - The acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has transitioned to an all-cash deal, with potential synergies expected in content and subscriber offerings [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 2025 operating profit increased by 30% to $2.957 billion, slightly exceeding market expectations, with an operating margin of 24.5% [2][10]. - Net profit for Q4 2025 was $2.419 billion, reflecting a 29% year-over-year increase, with a net profit margin of 20.1% [2][10]. - Content cash expenditure for Q4 2025 was $5.1 billion, up 11% year-over-year, with a net content asset value of $33 billion at the end of the quarter [2][13]. Acquisition Progress - The acquisition of WBD is valued at $82.7 billion, with WBD shareholders set to receive $27.75 in cash per share [3]. - Expected synergies from the acquisition include enhanced content library, expansion of subscription offerings, and cost savings of approximately $2-3 billion annually starting in the third year post-acquisition [3][4]. Guidance Update - For 2026, Netflix projects revenue between $50.738 billion and $51.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12%-14%, with advertising revenue expected to double [4][19]. - The company anticipates a free cash flow of $11 billion for 2026, a 9% increase year-over-year [4][19]. Valuation - The report adjusts the 2026 revenue and net profit forecasts down by 4% and 3% respectively, based on a 10-year DCF model [4][20]. - The target price of $103 corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.5x for 2026E and 32.4x for 2027E [4][20].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued, high-dividend, and quality asset power operators such as China Power (2380.HK) and Beijing Energy Clean Power (579.HK) [5][6] Core Insights - In 2025, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10.3682 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, the first time surpassing 10 trillion kilowatt-hours globally [2][5] - The growth in electricity consumption was primarily driven by the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity usage, contributing nearly half of the total growth [3][5] - Emerging and high-tech industries significantly boosted electricity consumption, with sectors like electric vehicle manufacturing and wind power equipment seeing growth rates exceeding 20% and 30% respectively [3][5] Summary by Sections Total Electricity Consumption - The total electricity consumption in 2025 was 10.3682 trillion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [2][5] - Breakdown by sectors: - Primary industry: 149.4 billion kilowatt-hours, up 9.9% - Secondary industry: 66,366 billion kilowatt-hours, up 3.7% - Tertiary industry: 19,942 billion kilowatt-hours, up 8.2% - Urban and rural residential consumption: 15,880 billion kilowatt-hours, up 6.3% [2][3] Industrial Power Generation - The industrial power generation in 2025 was 97,159 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [4][5] - December 2025 saw a slight increase of 0.1% in industrial power generation compared to the previous year [4] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the Hong Kong power operator sector is low, with several stocks offering dividend yields exceeding or nearing 6% [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in quality power operators like China Power (2380.HK) and Beijing Energy Clean Power (579.HK) due to their strong performance and favorable market conditions [5][6]

Group 1: Currency Trends - The USD/CNY exchange rate showed a significant "V-shaped" reversal, with the RMB returning to the "6 range" by year-end 2025, influenced by both the weakening USD and domestic growth stabilization policies [7][36]. - The USD index (DXY) experienced a notable decline of approximately 10% throughout 2025, marking a transition from a strong to a weak dollar due to shifts in Federal Reserve policy and softening economic data [7][36]. Group 2: Capital Market Overview - Global capital markets underwent a significant rebalancing, with funds flowing from US equities to more attractively valued Asian markets, particularly as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations fluctuated [12]. - The emerging market (EM) debt market recorded its best performance in years, benefiting from a weaker dollar and global liquidity expansion, despite concerns over economic slowdown [10]. Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a cautious and limited rate-cutting approach in 2026, with a more neutral policy stance due to persistent inflation and fiscal stimulus [17][22]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain stable interest rates in 2026, focusing on controlling inflation without rushing into further easing [17][22]. Group 4: Dollar Depreciation Effects - The anticipated moderate depreciation of the dollar is expected to improve multinational corporate earnings, while the relative resilience of the US economy prevents a dollar collapse, creating favorable macro conditions for US equities [27]. - The credit spread is expected to narrow, and the yield curve is projected to steepen as the Fed lowers short-term rates while long-term rates remain elevated due to fiscal deficits and inflation expectations [30]. Group 5: Commodity Prices - The copper market is poised for a super cycle driven by both old infrastructure (like China's power grid) and new technologies (such as AI computing), with a weaker dollar enhancing purchasing power for non-US buyers [35]. - Global visible inventories of copper are at historically low levels, amplifying price sensitivity to news and making price increases more likely [35]. Group 6: Chinese Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market is expected to benefit from a return of foreign capital into core A-share assets as the RMB stabilizes and appreciation reduces hedging costs [39]. - The government is likely to shift fiscal spending from traditional infrastructure investments to social welfare and consumption support, with a gradual recovery in government investment anticipated [41][51]. Group 7: Global Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to grow at around 2% in 2026, characterized by a "soft landing" consensus, while European stocks are expected to underperform due to traditional industry weight and insufficient economic momentum [41]. - China's export structure has diversified successfully, mitigating risks from trade tensions, with a focus on high-tech manufacturing becoming the core driver of export growth [46][58].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry, indicating that the "反内卷" (anti-involution) strategy will lead to high-quality development in the sector, with recommendations for investors to consider opportunities in leading companies like 协鑫科技 (GCL-Poly) and 钧达股份 (Junda) [5][6]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a critical phase of governance in 2026, focusing on capacity regulation, price monitoring, innovation, standardization, industry self-discipline, and international cooperation [2][3]. - Major companies in the photovoltaic sector are aligning with the "反内卷" consensus, leading to a decrease in production in key segments such as polysilicon and silicon wafers, with polysilicon production down 29.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - Initial effects of the "反内卷" actions are visible, with prices stabilizing and a shift in market sentiment, as evidenced by a 37% increase in the total market capitalization of listed companies in the sector since May [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference emphasized the need to address internal competition and promote sustainable development, with participation from government officials and industry experts [1][2]. Production Data - From January to October, polysilicon production was approximately 111.3 thousand tons, a 29.6% decrease year-on-year, while silicon wafer production was 560 GW, down 6.7% [3]. - Battery and module production saw growth, with battery production increasing by 9.8% to 560 GW and module production rising by 13.5% to 514 GW [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a gradual price recovery in the second half of the year, with November prices for photovoltaic modules up 1.3% year-on-year and polysilicon average factory prices increasing by 34.4% [4]. - Despite a 17% decline in revenue for 31 listed companies in the photovoltaic sector during the first three quarters of 2025, the rate of decline is narrowing, indicating a potential recovery [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report encourages investors to take advantage of lower prices and consider investments in leading photovoltaic companies, particularly 协鑫科技 (GCL-Poly) and 钧达股份 (Junda), which have competitive advantages in their respective segments [5][6].