新款游戏上线表现火热，2025 财年扭转值得 期待 事件：友谊时光 6820.HK 主要从事手游研运，且主要面向女性群体，至今研 发并运营超过 70 多个不同版本的 20 余款手游，目前的核心游戏包括《浮生》 系列、《杜拉拉升职记》、《凌云诺》、《熹妃传》系列。2025 年 5 月 28 日公司在派对游戏赛道拓展的品类《暴吵萌厨》正式开启公测，在预下载阶段， 这款新游便表现瞩目，在多个平台登顶下载榜。 报告摘要 派对新游《暴吵萌厨》上线 5 月 28 日，友谊时光旗下欢乐厨房派对手游《暴吵 萌厨》正式上线，开启全平台公测。游戏凭借多人合作实时竞技核心玩法，搭配 美食题材、趣味美术设计和丰富游戏内容，玩法对标 Steam 平台成熟运营游戏《胡 闹厨房》系列，吸引大量玩家，上线便在苹果 AppStore、小米、VIVO、TapTap 等多渠道榜单中登顶。早在预下载阶段，游戏就已表现突出，达成了 800 万预约 的成绩，属于"大 DAU 派对手游"赛道的潜力黑马。 市场对新游反馈积极 从当前市场反馈来看，《暴吵萌厨》在上线后七麦数据 iOS 免费榜排名连续 3 天第一，总榜第三，在传播方面形成了完整闭环。其玩法轻松 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 5 月 29 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：美国关税政策遇阻力，有利市场情绪回稳 港股昨日高开低走，恒指高開 3 點后早段最高升 94 點至 23476 點，随后沽压 涌现，午后恒指最低跌 201 点报 23180 点，尾盘略为回顺。恒指最终收报 23258 点，跌 123 点或 0.53%。大市交投连续两日回落，昨日主板成交报 1808 亿港 元，较上日少 11.05%。 港股通交易连续两日录得净流入，但金额减少。北水昨日净流入 35.78 亿港元， 较上日减少 70.1%。北水净买入最多的个股依次是美团 3690.HK、中移动 941.HK、中海油 883.HK；净卖出最多的依次是小米 1810.HK、恒生中国企业 2828.HK、快手 1024.HK。 行业表现方面，12 个恒生综指行业指数中，7 个上升，5 个下跌。领涨板块为 必需性消费、能源、工业及综合企业，涨幅为 1.32%-0.62%；领跌的板块则包 括可选消费、资讯科技、医疗保健及金融，跌幅为 0.93%-0.60%，跑输下跌 0.51%的恒生综指。 美股昨晚下跌，三大股指跌 0.51% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690.HK) [1][4][6] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 revenue and adjusted profit exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and adjusted net profit of 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year [2][4] - The core local business operating profit increased by 39% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 10% [1][2] - The company is prioritizing long-term ecological investments over short-term profit margins, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in profitability but is expected to strengthen market share and ecological balance in the long run [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 total revenue was 86.6 billion yuan, slightly exceeding expectations by 1.4% and 1.3% from the report and market respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 10.9 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 18% and 13% [2] - Core local business revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, with operating profit margin increasing by 3 percentage points to 21% [2][4] - New business revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, with losses narrowing to 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 18% [2][4] Business Segment Analysis - Core local business maintained steady growth, with delivery, commission, and online marketing revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% year-on-year respectively [3] - The management emphasized a commitment to compete effectively in the instant retail sector, planning to invest 100 billion yuan over the next three years [3] - The company reported strong growth in the takeaway and flash purchase segments, with daily order volume growth accelerating to approximately 10% [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a 13% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 10% and 21% respectively [4] - For the full year 2025, total revenue is projected to grow by 15%, with core local business and new business expected to grow by 13% and 20% respectively [4] - The target price is adjusted to 177 HKD, representing a potential upside of 34% from the recent closing price [4][6]

长期生态投入优先级高于短期利润率表现，维持买入 SDICSI 2025 年 05 月 28 日 美团 (3690.HK) 美团 1 季度收入/经调整利润超市场预期 1%/13%，核心本地商业经营利润同比增 39%，超市场预期 10%，年活跃用户数及年活跃商户数创新高。考虑供给及需求 侧投入加码，我们下调 10%全年核心本地商业经营利润，短期利润率或有波动， 但利好长期份额优势巩固和生态平衡。维持买入评级。 报告摘要 1 季度业绩超预期：总收入 866 亿元，同比增 18%，略超我们/市场预期 1.4%/1.3% （12 亿元/11 亿元）；经调整净利润 109 亿元，同比增 46%，超我们/市场预期 18%/13% （17 亿元/12 亿元），主要因营销费用管控好于预期。分业务看，核心本地商业收 入同比增 18%，分部经营利润同比增 39%，经营利润率同比提升至 3 个百分点至 21%，我们估算外卖&闪购 UE、到店酒旅经营利润率均有同比改善。新业务收入同 比增 19%，亏损 23 亿元，同比收窄 18%，环比略微扩大 4%，主要反映海外投入。 核心本地商业维持稳健增长态势：1 季度配送/佣金/在线营销收入同 ...

SDICSI 2025 年 5 月 27 日 滔搏 (6110.HK) 持续深化品牌合作，高股息提升回报率 事件：滔搏公布 FY2502 的经营表现，期内收入同比下滑 6.6%至 270.1 亿元， 归母净利润同比下滑 41.9%至 12.9 亿元，基本符合预期。此外，公司宣派末 期股息 0.02 元/股及特别股息 0.12 元/股，全年派息率 135%。综合考虑，我 们预测 FY26/27/28 的 EPS 为 0.21/0.22/0.23 元，给予 2026/02 财年 16 倍 PE，目标价 3.6 港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告摘要 线下消费疲软带来收入下滑，线上录得正向增长。FY25 集团收入同比下滑 6.6% 至 270.1 亿元，主要是由于线下消费疲软、客流减少；归母净利润同比下滑 41.9%至 12.9 亿元，利润下滑大于收入，主要是由于线下固定费用高，导致经 营负杠杆，尽管线上录得正增长，仍无法抵消线下经营的负面影响。分不同品 牌来看，主力品牌（Nike、Adidas）收入同比下滑 6.1%至 233.1 亿元，其他 品牌收入同比下滑 9.9%至 35.0 亿元。毛利率方面，由于库存加速出清 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 5 月 28 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：美欧休战，刺激美股反弹 港股昨天三大指数小幅反弹，恒生指数涨 0.43%、国企指数涨 0.38%、恒生科 技指数涨 0.48%。大市成交 2,032.68 亿元。主板总卖空金额 375.59 亿元，占 可卖空股票总成交金额为 20.711%，连续两天高于 20%，明显高于 5 月中旬 的平均水平。南向资金（北水）方面，港股通交易转净流入，北水净流入 119.75 亿港元，打破前两天净流出的局面。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入 最多的是盈富基金 2800.HK 、美团 3690.HK 、恒生中国企业 2828.HK ； 净卖出最多的是腾讯 700.HK 、阿里巴巴 9988.HK 。 北向资金方面，5 月 27 日北向资金共成交 1110.63 亿元，占两市总成交额的 11.12%。沪股通方面，成交额前三的个股为紫金矿业 601899.SH（7.63 亿元）、 寒武纪 688256.SH（7.32 亿元）、贵州茅台 600519.SH（7.26 亿元）。深股通 方面，比亚迪 002594.SZ 以 24 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent rebound in the US stock market is questioned as a potential "dead cat bounce" amid ongoing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [5][11][12] - The S&P 500 index experienced a decline of 2.6% last week, halting a rebound that had been ongoing since mid-April, primarily due to poor US Treasury auction results and renewed trade war threats from Trump [11][12][29] - The market remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring developments in the trade war and the Federal Reserve's communications [5][11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US retail sales showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% in April, which was slightly above market expectations, but several categories, particularly those reliant on imports, saw declines [34][35] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, has been on a downward trend, dropping from 57.0 in March to 50.8 in May, indicating persistent weakness in consumer sentiment [34][35] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, which was below expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a significant drop of 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since 2015 [40][41] Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment - The upward trend in credit risk spreads typically lasts over six months and is associated with bear markets, indicating a potential negative cycle in corporate fundamentals and market sentiment [16][17] - Current credit spreads are rising, suggesting that market volatility may continue into the second or third quarter of 2025 [16][17] - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over rising debt levels and expanding budget deficits, which could further impact market confidence [29][30] Group 4: Trade War Implications - The trade war narrative remains central to market movements, with recent negotiations between the US and China leading to a temporary reduction in tariffs, which briefly boosted the S&P 500 index [11][12] - The potential for increased tariffs on EU goods and non-US produced products has raised fears of a broader trade conflict, which could significantly impact bilateral trade and market stability [11][12][46] - The upcoming legislative discussions regarding the "Beautiful Act" could exacerbate the federal deficit, complicating the economic landscape further [24][25]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened lower and closed down 318 points or 1.35% at 23,282 points, with a trading volume of 223.5 billion HKD, an increase of 9.75% from the previous day [2] - Northbound capital recorded a net outflow of 1.507 billion HKD, an increase of 32.3% from the previous day, with Meituan, China Mobile, and Horizon Robotics being the most bought stocks, while Tencent, Alibaba, and the Tracker Fund were the most sold [2] Group 2: Meituan Q1 Performance - Meituan's total revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations by 1.3% (1.1 billion HKD), with core local business and new business revenues growing by 18% and 19% respectively [4] - Adjusted net profit exceeded expectations by 13%, with core local business profits rising by 39% and operating profit margin (OPM) improving by 3 percentage points to 21% [4] - New business commission revenue surged by 85% to 1.2 billion HKD, reflecting strong overseas business performance, although the segment reported a loss of 2.3 billion HKD, narrowing by 500 million HKD year-on-year [4] Group 3: Meituan Management Insights - Management emphasized the need for competitive investment and expressed confidence in winning the market, indicating potential fluctuations in profit margins due to increased investments [4] - For the next three years, Meituan plans to invest 100 billion HKD to promote healthy development in the catering industry, while also focusing on supporting small and medium-sized merchants and protecting rider rights [4] Group 4: Tongcheng Travel Q1 Performance - Tongcheng Travel reported total revenue of 4.4 billion HKD in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with core OTA revenue growing by 18% [7] - The operating profit for core OTA increased by 53% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29.2%, benefiting from improved subsidy and marketing efficiency [7] - Adjusted net profit rose by 41% to 790 million HKD, exceeding market expectations by 11% [7] Group 5: Tongcheng Travel Strategic Moves - Tongcheng Travel announced plans to fully acquire Wanda Hotel Management for approximately 2.5 billion HKD, which is expected to enhance user demand coverage and potentially increase average transaction value [8] - The acquisition aligns with Tongcheng's existing hotel supply and is anticipated to create synergies that will benefit the company's overall performance [8] Group 6: Financial Forecasts - For Q2, core OTA revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with accommodation and transportation ticketing revenues projected to increase by 12% and 10% respectively [9] - The overall revenue for 2025 is adjusted to a year-on-year increase of 12%, with core OTA revenue and operating profit expected to rise by 17% and 23% respectively [9] - The target price for Tongcheng Travel is adjusted to 24.4 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 29% from the recent closing price, maintaining a "buy" rating [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed volatility, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,601 points, up 56 points or 0.2% [2] - The total market turnover increased to HKD 203.67 billion, with short-selling amounting to HKD 33.83 billion, representing 16.61% of the total turnover [2] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of HKD 1.139 billion, contrasting with a net inflow of HKD 3.88 billion the previous day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The film sector performed strongly, with Alibaba Pictures (1060.HK) rising 63.83% over four days, driven by optimism regarding its IP merchandise potential [4] - Solar energy stocks like Fuyao Glass (3606.HK) and Rainbow New Energy (00438.HK) showed notable performance, while nuclear power stocks also led gains [4] - The automotive sector benefited from strong retail market growth, with companies like NIO (1316.HK) and Great Wall Motors (2333.HK) recording increases [4] Group 3: Consumption Insights - In April, total retail sales reached CNY 37,174 billion, growing 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumption [7] - The retail sales of household appliances surged by 38.8% year-on-year in April, supported by government subsidies [8] - Food and beverage sectors showed mixed results, with grain and oil retail sales growing 14.0% year-on-year, while automotive retail sales only increased by 0.7% [8] Group 4: Price Trends - The average price of live pigs in May was CNY 7.47 per kg, down 0.2% month-on-month and 6.7% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization after a decline [9] - The average price of fresh milk was CNY 3.07 per kg, reflecting a 0.1% decrease month-on-month and a 9.2% decrease year-on-year [9] - Commodity prices showed fluctuations, with corrugated paper prices decreasing by 2.2% month-on-month, while PET prices increased by 3.2% [10] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The report highlights investment opportunities in companies like Mixue Group (2097), which is positioned as a leader in the milk tea market with a strong supply chain [11] - Kang Shifu Holdings (0322) is noted for its cost reduction leading to profit improvement, with a dividend yield of 5.4%, making it an attractive investment [11]

Group 1 - The market is currently in an observation period with significant volatility, as evidenced by the decline in major indices: Hang Seng Index down 1.19%, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 1.19%, and Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.7% [2] - The total turnover in the market has decreased to 198.229 billion, with a high short-selling amount of 34.358 billion, accounting for 19.327% of the total turnover of shortable stocks [2] - Southbound funds have seen a rebound, with a net inflow of 3.881 billion on Thursday, with the most bought stocks being China Construction Bank, Meituan, and Pop Mart, while Tencent, Xpeng Motors, and Alibaba saw the most net selling [2] Group 2 - In the sector analysis, technology-related stocks such as film, short video, and cloud office have generally weakened, with significant declines in major tech stocks like Alibaba and Baidu [4] - Consumer sectors, including beer, department stores, and sports goods, have also experienced declines, with notable drops in Budweiser Asia Pacific and Anta Sports [4] - Conversely, some tobacco and cosmetics stocks have risen, with Smoore International increasing by 6.25% due to consumption-boosting policies in Shanghai [4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a slight recovery in the U.S. economy, with the May composite PMI rising from 50.6 in April to 52.1, signaling a rebound from a 19-month low [5] - U.S. retail and food service sales in April totaled 724.1 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a return to normal consumption levels prior to tariff impacts [7] - Online retail sales continue to outperform the market, with April sales reaching 123.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [8]