港股晨报 2025 年 4 月 10 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：特朗普投降，美股大幅反弹 港股市场昨天延续反弹走势，恒生指数上涨 0.68%，国企指数上涨 1.41%，恒 生科技指数领涨 2.64%。大市成交 4,123.85 亿元，连续三天成交高于 4,000 亿元。主板总卖空金额 846.95 亿元，卖空金额占大市成交 20.538%，维持较 高水平。 南向资金（北水）方面，港股通资金连续多天保持净流入状态，昨天净流入金 额升至 355.86 亿元，为一个月以来的最高流量。港股通 10 大成交活跃股，北 水净买入最多的依次是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、腾讯控股 700.HK、盈富基金 2800.HK。北向资金方面，共成交 2715.86 亿元，占两市总成交额的 15.98%。 沪股通方面，贵州茅台 600519.CH、药明康德 603259.CH、恒瑞医药 600276.CH 位列成交额前三，分别为 38.04 亿、22.24 亿、19.86 亿；深股通 方面，宁德时代 300750.CH、比亚迪 002594.CH、美的集团 000333.CH 位列 成交额前三，分别为 ...

SDICSI 2025 年 04 月 10 日 移卡(9923.HK) 2H24 业绩不及预期：总收入 15 亿元，同比降 20%，较彭博一致预期低 11%， 其中一站式支付较市场预期低 6%（8,600 万元），商户解决方案较市场预期低 43%（2.4 亿元）。毛利同比增 15%，好于市场预期 2%，主要因支付业务毛利好 于预期，整体毛利率 28%，同比及环比均提升 9 个百分点。归母净利润 5100 万元，利润率 3.4%，对比去年同期为亏损 2,200 万元。经调整 EBITDA 为 2.2 亿 元，同比降 17%，EBITDA 利润率 14.7%。 支付业务承压：下半年 GPV 为 1.17 万亿元，同比降 18%，环比持平，综合费 率为 11.5 个基点，同比/环比下降 1.1/0.8 个基点。全年 GPV 为 2.34 万亿元， 剔除非经常性收入调整影响的费率为 11.9 个基点，同比下降 1.4 个基点，与行 业费率下行趋势一致。 商户解决方案&到店电商：2H24 收入同比降 30%，主要因付费商户规模下降， 战略聚焦利润率更高的优质客户，当前对支付商户的渗透率近 20%，中长期仍 有提升潜力。 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 4 月 9 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：中国强烈反制，贸易战升级，美股高开低走 港股市场在日前大幅调整后整体反弹，恒生指数涨 1.51%，国企指数涨 2.31%， 恒生科指涨 3.79%。大市成交 4,331.57 亿元，连续两天维持高成交。主板总 卖空金额 850.90 亿元，卖空金额占大市成交 19.644%，维持较高水平。 南向资金（北水）方面，港股通资金连续多天保持净流入状态，昨天净流入金 额 236.34 亿元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股，北水净买入最多的依次是腾讯控股 700.HK、阿里巴巴 9988.HK、美团 3690.HK；净卖出最多的是药明生物 2269.HK。 北向资金方面，成交总额达 2692.69 亿元，占两市总成交额的 16.56%。沪股 通方面，贵州茅台 600519.CH、招商银行 600036.CH、恒瑞医药 600276.CH 位列成交额前三，分别为 42.60 亿、34.14 亿和 23.47 亿；深股通方面，宁德 时代 300750.CH、比亚迪 002594.CH、东方财富 300059.CH 位列成交前三， ...

报告摘要 24 年净利润大幅增长 80.8%。公司 2024 年总营收为 2022.0 亿元，同比增长 16.7%； 归母净利润为 126.9 亿元，同比增长 80.8%，业绩创新高。 业绩大幅增长，与宇树科技达成合作 2024 年长城汽车总营收为 2022.0 亿元，同比增长 16.7%；归母净利润为 126.9 亿元，同比增长 80.8%，业绩创新高。长城与宇树科技达成战略合作，代表长城 开始向具身智能方向拓展。维持目标价 18.0 港元，对应 25 年的 10.0 倍预测市盈 率，距离现价有 58%上涨空间，买入评级。 股价表现 % 一个月 三个月 十二个月 相对收益 2.81 -14.78 6.99 数据来源：彭博、港交所、公司 3 月销量同比下降 2.3%，环比增长 26%。3 月长城汽车总销量达 9.8 万台，同比 下降 2.3%，环比增长 26%。具体来看，哈弗品牌 3 月销量 5.3 万台，同比下降 2.5%；WEY 品牌销量 4675 台，同比增长 30.0%；长城皮卡销量 2.0 万台，同比 增长 16.2%；欧拉品牌销量 2776 台，同比下降 53.9%；坦克品牌销量 1.7 万台， ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the impact of reciprocal tariffs on the market, indicating that the current market environment is entering an observation period due to heightened uncertainty and volatility [3][45][51] - The U.S. has the largest trade deficit globally, with a total trade deficit of $917.8 billion in 2024, which is 1.8 times that of 2015, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7% over the past decade [7][17] - The report highlights that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are aimed at reducing trade deficits with various countries, with specific rates such as 34% on Chinese goods and 46% on Vietnamese products [17][22][31] Group 2 - The report notes a significant shift in the market dynamics compared to 2018, with broader implications for global trade relationships and potential long-term impacts on supply chains [23][26][41] - The U.S. stock market has experienced substantial fluctuations, with major indices like the S&P 500 seeing declines of 8.6% to 9.8% in recent weeks due to tariff announcements [50][58] - The report emphasizes the potential ripple effects on Southeast Asian economies, particularly Vietnam and Thailand, as they face increased tariffs that could disrupt their export markets [41][44][45] Group 3 - The U.S. macroeconomic indicators show a decline in manufacturing activity, with the ISM manufacturing index dropping to 49.0, indicating contraction for the first time this year [66] - Employment data remains robust, with an increase of 228,000 non-farm jobs in March, suggesting that while hiring is strong, overall business confidence is waning [74] - The report outlines that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is leading to cautious investment strategies among businesses, which could hinder future economic growth [70]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 3,021 points or 13.2%, closing at 19,828 points, below the 20,000 mark, marking the largest single-day point drop [2] - The technology sector led the decline, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 17.2% [2] - Market trading was exceptionally active, with the main board turnover increasing by 114% to HKD 620.9 billion, setting a historical high, indicating panic selling [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - All 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indexes fell sharply, with the healthcare, consumer discretionary (led by automobiles), information technology, materials, and industrial sectors experiencing declines between 19.2% and 14.5%, underperforming the market [3] - The utility and telecommunications sectors, which are high-yield sectors, saw smaller declines of 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Data - U.S. consumer credit unexpectedly decreased by USD 0.81 billion in February, the first decline since November, significantly below the market expectation of a USD 15.2 billion increase [4] - The decline in consumer credit reflects a cautious attitude among U.S. households towards their debt burden, influenced by concerns over rising inflation and personal financial conditions due to tariff policies [4] - The Hang Seng Index's forecasted price-to-earnings ratio is 10.3, below the median of 11.1 since 2010, with potential for further declines in extreme market volatility [4] Group 4: Company Analysis - Binhai Investment (2886.HK) - Binhai Investment reported a total gas sales volume of 2.515 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with pipeline natural gas sales at 1.714 billion cubic meters, up 6.5% [6] - The company anticipates achieving a total gas sales volume of 2.7 billion cubic meters in 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase, with pipeline sales expected to reach 1.9 billion cubic meters [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at HKD 0.41 per cubic meter, with significant recovery expected in the second half of the year [7] Group 5: Growth Potential and Financial Outlook - The company plans to maintain a stable connection business, with an expected addition of 70,000 new connections in 2024, and aims for a stable performance in 2025 [7] - Value-added services are projected to achieve a gross profit of HKD 54.7 million in 2024, a 9.6% increase, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 42% over the past four years [7] - The company aims to optimize its debt structure, reducing interest-bearing debt by HKD 570 million, and plans to increase dividends by at least 10% annually from 2025 to 2027, with a current dividend yield of 7% [7][8] Group 6: Target Price and Investment Rating - The target price for Binhai Investment is set at HKD 1.36, maintaining a "Buy" rating, with expected revenues of HKD 6.509 billion, HKD 6.878 billion, and HKD 7.268 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8] - The projected net profit for the parent company is expected to be HKD 237 million, HKD 264 million, and HKD 278 million for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth of 18.8%, 11.3%, and 5.5% [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a significant rise in the risk of stagflation in the US, leading to expected market volatility similar to liquidity risks observed in 2020 [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a decline of 576 points or 2.46% over the week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping 3.51% [2][3] - Despite the market downturn, there was a substantial net inflow from the Northbound Stock Connect, amounting to 28.8 billion HKD, marking a 146% increase from the previous day [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, 4 sectors rose while 8 sectors fell, with utilities, real estate, consumer staples, and telecommunications showing gains of 0.90% to 0.18% [3] - The report notes that the US stock market saw significant declines, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ dropping 4.84% and 5.97% respectively, driven by concerns over Trump's tariff policies [3][4] Group 3: Company Analysis - China Heartland Fertilizer (1866.HK) - For the fiscal year 2024, China Heartland Fertilizer reported a revenue of 23.13 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while net profit increased by 23% to 1.46 billion CNY [9] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 25% of audited net profit from 2025 to 2027, with a minimum dividend of 0.24 CNY per share [9] - The report anticipates that the urea market will face oversupply issues in 2025, with a projected increase in national urea production capacity by 6.6 million tons [9][10] Group 4: Strategic Expansion - China Heartland Fertilizer is expanding its production capacity, with new projects in Xinjiang, Guangxi, and Henan expected to come online, increasing total fertilizer capacity to over 13 million tons by 2027 [10] - The company is positioned to become the largest fertilizer producer in China, leveraging its technological and market advantages in melamine production [10] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The report suggests that despite short-term performance fluctuations, the long-term value of China Heartland Fertilizer remains strong, with projected net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.88 billion, and 2.82 billion CNY for 2025 to 2027 [10] - A target price of 6.5 HKD is set for the stock, corresponding to a 6.7 times forecasted P/E ratio for 2025, with a buy rating recommended [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 1.36 [7] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was under pressure, primarily due to a warm winter and connection business impacts, but is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025 as connection impacts diminish and gas sales volume increases [1][4] - The company continues to prioritize shareholder returns through dividends, with a current dividend yield of 7% [3][4] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenue of HKD 6.198 billion, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a gross profit of HKD 569 million, down 24% [1][5] - The company achieved a total gas sales volume of 2.515 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13%, with pipeline gas sales at 1.714 billion cubic meters, up 6.5% [2] - The expected revenue for 2025 is HKD 6.509 billion, with a projected growth of 5% [5] Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 0.18, HKD 0.20, and HKD 0.21 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 2.37 billion, HKD 2.64 billion, and HKD 2.78 billion [1][4][5] Debt and Financial Health - The company reduced interest-bearing debt by HKD 570 million in 2024, indicating an improved debt structure [3] - The financing cost is expected to decrease by HKD 20 million in 2025, contributing to better financial health [3] Growth Drivers - The connection business is anticipated to stabilize, with an expected addition of 70,000 new connections in 2025, maintaining the previous year's level [3] - The value-added services segment showed a gross profit increase of 9.6% in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 42% over the past four years, indicating strong growth potential [3] Market Position - The company's gas sales growth rate is projected to remain above the industry average, supported by a recovery in gross margins and stabilization in connection business [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to increased risks of stagflation in the US, causing short-term volatility in global markets [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index opened lower and fluctuated throughout the day, closing at 23,202 points, down 4 points or 0.02% [2] - The main board turnover decreased by 13.4% to HKD 216.6 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment among investors [2] Group 2: Stock Performance - Northbound trading saw a significant net inflow of over HKD 11.7 billion, although this was a decrease of 41% from the previous day [2] - The top net purchases included Xiaomi (1810.HK), Alibaba (9988.HK), and Tencent (700.HK), while the most sold stocks were WuXi Biologics (2269.HK) and SOTON (2498.HK) [2] Group 3: Company Analysis - China Heartland Fertilizer (1866.HK) - In 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 23.13 billion, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 23% to CNY 1.46 billion [9][10] - The company announced a dividend policy for 2025-2027, committing to a minimum payout ratio of 25% of audited net profit and a minimum dividend of CNY 0.24 per share [9][10] - The company is expected to face challenges due to increased production capacity in the urea market, which is projected to lead to price stagnation [11] Group 4: Future Projections for China Heartland Fertilizer - The company anticipates net profits of CNY 1.1 billion, CNY 1.88 billion, and CNY 2.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -25%, +71%, and +50% [12] - The company is expanding its production capacity significantly, with new projects expected to come online, positioning it as the largest fertilizer producer in China by 2027 [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.38% and significant net inflows from southbound funds reaching 19.864 billion HKD [2] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, driven by discussions on optimizing procurement policies by the National Healthcare Security Administration, which is expected to enhance profit margins for pharmaceutical companies [3] - The energy and new energy sectors, particularly nuclear, wind, and solar power stocks, have also performed well, supported by infrastructure development and policy backing [4] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has exhibited a mixed performance across sectors, with notable gains in pharmaceuticals, new energy, and coal stocks, while sectors like home appliances, chips, and automotive stocks faced pressure [5] - The report indicates that the market sentiment is shifting as investors look for new directions amid sector rotations [5] Company Analysis - The report discusses 联易融科技 (Linklogis, 9959.HK), noting significant business expansion with a 44.9% increase in core enterprise partners and a 59.3% growth in supply chain financial technology solutions [11] - Despite the growth, the company faces challenges due to rising credit risks in supply chain assets, leading to a substantial increase in impairment losses from 214 million HKD in 2023 to 640 million HKD [12] - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, with a target price set at 2.00 HKD per share, reflecting a relatively safe valuation level [13]