港股晨报 2025 年 3 月 14 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：美国 PPI 胜预期，但贸易战升级令股市继跌 港股三大指数昨天集体下滑，恒生指数跌 0.58%，国企指数跌 0.48%，恒生科 技指数跌 1.67%。大市成交持续回落至 2,338 亿元。主板总卖空金额 413 亿元， 卖空金额占大市成交升至 17.67%之较高水平。 南向资金（北水）方面，港股通资金净流入 54.66 亿元。港股通 10 大成交活 跃股，北水净买入最多的依次是中国移动 941.HK、小鹏汽车 9868.HK、阿里巴 巴 9988.HK；净卖出最多的依次是腾讯控股 700.HK、中芯国际 981.HK、优必选 9880.HK。 北向资金方面，昨天共成交 1888 亿元，占两市总成交额的 11.75%。贵州茅台 600519.CH、招商银行 600036.CH、寒武纪 688256.CH 位列沪股通成交前三，成 交额分别为 17.95 亿、9.90 亿、9.13 亿；宁德时代 300750.CH、比亚迪 002594.CH、 顺丰控股 002352.CH 位列深股通成交前三，成交额分别为 14.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company is one of the top global automotive parts suppliers, with a strong traditional business that supports performance growth. It has expanded into battery boxes, smart exteriors, and chassis components, accelerating its transition to electric and intelligent vehicles [4]. - Emerging businesses such as robotics, low-altitude flight, and wireless charging for vehicles are market hotspots, with new products expected to be mass-produced by 2025 or 2026, contributing to revenue [4]. - The company is expected to resume dividend payments after a hiatus in 2023 due to high capital expenditures and debt levels. It is transitioning from an expansion phase to a harvesting phase, with improved cash flow and stock buybacks anticipated [4]. - Projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.2 billion, 2.51 billion, and 3.15 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.3x, 9.9x, and 7.9x, indicating a currently low valuation [4]. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the automotive parts industry, with a global presence. Founded in 1992 and listed in Hong Kong in 2005, it is the largest supplier of battery boxes and body structure parts globally, employing over 20,000 people across 77 factories and offices in 14 countries [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company has shown resilient revenue growth since its listing, with a 13.8% year-on-year increase in revenue to 11.09 billion in the first half of 2024, and a 20.4% increase in net profit to 1.07 billion [18][22]. - The gross profit margin and net profit margin have improved slightly in the first half of 2024, with figures of 28.5% and 9.7%, respectively [22]. Revenue Structure - The company has seen a continuous increase in overseas market share, with overseas revenue accounting for 59.2% of total revenue in the first half of 2024. The Americas and Europe represent significant portions of this revenue [26]. - The traditional business, including metal trims, plastic parts, and aluminum components, constitutes 67% of revenue, while new businesses like battery boxes account for 33% [29]. Emerging Business Development - The company has a strong order backlog of 236 billion, with over 53% of orders related to battery boxes, indicating significant growth potential in this area [31]. - The company has established a research center focused on automotive intelligent integration components and lightweight technology, leading to innovations in various sectors, including robotics and low-altitude flight [33][36].

港股晨报 2025 年 3 月 12 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：资金流入增强港股面对美股波动的免疫力 1. 国证视点 资金流入增强港股面对美股波动的免疫 力 2. 行业点评 港股昨日展示了强劲的韧性，低开高走。隔晚美股暴挫，恒指大幅低开 508 点 至 23274 点，最低曾跌 545 点至 23238 点。低位大量买盘涌现，大市逐步收 复失地，尾盘曾倒升 75 点至 23858 点，收市才略为回软。恒指收报 23782 点， 全日微跌 1 点或 0.01%。恒生科指报捷，升 1.39%。大市交投略为回升，主板 成交报 3070 亿港元，较上日多 1.73%。 大市急挫之际，港股通资金大幅涌入扫货。北水昨日净流入逾 296 亿元，较上 日增加 144.6%。水净买入最多的个股依次是盈富基金 2800.HK、恒生中国企 业 2828.HK、阿里 9988.HK；净卖出最多的依次是中芯 981.HK、金蝶国际 268.HK。 行业表现方面，12 个恒生综合行业指数中，9 个上升 3 个下跌。领涨板块为必 需性消费、医疗保健及资讯科技，涨幅分别为 2.68%、1.42%及 0.9 ...

SDICSI 2025 年 3 月 10 日 医美行业动态点评 38 大促期间毛戈平、珀莱雅、巨子生物、上 美股份表现尤为亮眼 护肤类目： 护肤类目总 GMV 超 84 亿元，相较于去年 3.8 大促提升 65%。在 TOP20 榜单 中，头部品牌的集中度以及国产品牌的数量出现一定程度的下滑。上美股份旗下 的韩束品牌表现突出，稳居市场榜首，市场份额达 4.3%。从带货方式来看， 35%的品牌达人推广 GMV 贡献率超过 50%，其中，后、资生堂等品牌达人推广 GMV 贡献率超 70%。 彩妆香水类目： 事件：3 月 8 日，一年一度的三八大促收官。 报告摘要 我们主要分两大电商平台来阐述： 天猫平台： TOP4 稳居榜单，国货品牌市场占比稳定。根据天猫美妆全周期品牌成交榜 （2025 年 3 月 3 日 20:00 至 3 月 8 日）显示，TOP20 榜单中，国货品牌占比达 25%，与 2024 年（2024 年 2 月 28 日至 3 月 8 日）的比例持平。 按品牌进行分析，珀莱雅蝉联冠军；巨子生物旗下的可复美位列第 8 名，较 2024 年提升了 5 个名次，根据青眼情报数据显示，其明星产品胶原棒在李 ...

SDICSI 2025 年 3 月 10 日 石油行业动态点评 OPEC 预计 Q2 重启增产，国际油价向下破 70 美元 美国能源信息署（EIA）公布 2 月 28 日当周原油库存情况，EIA 美国商业原油库 存为 433.8 百万桶，较前周+3.6 百万桶，远超市场预期的 34.1 百万桶，供应过 剩压力有所加剧；同时受到成品油出口增长，汽油与馏分油库存均有所下降。3 月 3 日 OPEC+成员国会议中重申了预计于 Q2 逐步退出 220 万桶/日的减产计 划，短期内石油价格下行压力变大，此外仍需关注美国对于伊朗的制裁预期，以 及需要关注东亚国家的需求增长是否超预期。 报告摘要 OPEC+增产形成下行压力，仍需关注其他因素。根据最新会议报道，OPEC+组 织预计将于 4 月 1 日开始提高石油产量，此次增产是 OPEC+自 2022 年以来的 首次，同时这也是近期美国关于希望降低油价对 OPEC 以及沙特施压后所做出的 决定。根据行业测算，此次增长规模约为 13.8 万桶/日。目前看增产大概率会势 在必行，但仍需等待 3 月底的会议是否会有进一步调整，此外美国对于伊朗的制 裁预期或可对油价形成一定支撑，以 ...

美股策略 市场结构性转变 东升西降行情的操作机会 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 2025年3月 分析师： 黄焯伟 Steve (中央編號：ASG163) stevewong@sdicsi.com.hk 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 目录 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 2 上周总结：Lower-high、lower-low 美国宏观：就业情况有点不妙 利率走势：恐慌情绪蔓延 未来一周关注重点（3月10日-3月14日） -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 半導體 科技 可選消費 能源 公用事業 金融 通訊服務 工業 材料 房地產 必需消費 醫療 四周变动 两周变动 一周变动 板块相对表现 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 3 标普500不同板块的近期表现 主要市场股指近期走势 3 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 Dec Jan Feb Mar MSCI中国 标指500 日經225 印度NIFTY 歐洲斯托克50 英國富時100 股指相对表现 来源：彭博、国证国际整理 来源：彭博、国证国际整理 上周（3月3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong with a target price raised to HKD 29.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current stock price of HKD 24.85 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a revenue of HKD 13,074.2 million for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, and a net profit of HKD 902.8 million, which is a 30.4% increase compared to the previous year [1][5]. - The company expects net profits for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be HKD 9.6 billion, HKD 10.2 billion, and HKD 10.8 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.32, HKD 1.40, and HKD 1.48 [1][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The tobacco leaf import business showed steady growth, achieving a revenue of HKD 8.254 billion in 2024, up 2.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of HKD 826 million, reflecting a 12.7% increase [2]. - The gross margin for tobacco leaf imports was 10.0%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a higher proportion of higher-margin Brazilian business [2]. - The cigarette export segment saw a revenue of HKD 1.574 billion in 2024, a 30.2% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 277 million, marking a 69.1% rise [3]. - The gross margin for cigarette exports improved to 17.6%, up 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a higher proportion of self-operated channels [3]. Product Segmentation - The export of tobacco leaf products generated HKD 2.062 billion in revenue, a 24.8% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 84 million, up 85.8% [3]. - New tobacco product exports achieved a revenue of HKD 135 million, a 4.0% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 7 million, reflecting a 23.2% growth [4]. - The Brazilian business segment reported a revenue of HKD 1.050 billion, a 37.0% increase, with a gross profit of HKD 184 million, up 30.2% [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Information - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.31 per share, with a total annual dividend of HKD 0.46 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 37% and a dividend yield of 1.9% based on the current stock price [4][5]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth rates of 0.5%, 4.0%, and 3.5% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 6.4%, 6.3%, and 5.4% for the same periods [11][13]. - The estimated gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 11.57% by 2027 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is 5.4, based on operational performance, industry outlook, valuation, and market sentiment [8]. Core Insights - The company, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., is a rapidly growing international gold producer with a significant increase in gold production from 2021 to 2023, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.1% [1]. - The company has a strong operational efficiency, with all-in sustaining costs below the global average, ranking fifth among Chinese gold producers and 20-30 globally [1]. - The revenue for the company has shown a steady increase, with a 17.8% year-on-year growth for the nine months ending September 30, 2024, driven by higher average selling prices and increased sales volume [2]. - The global gold demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.8% from 2024 to 2028, with central bank demand growing the fastest at 6.9% [3]. - The company is positioned as the largest private gold producer in China, with a robust market outlook and a strong track record in mergers and acquisitions [5]. Company Overview - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. operates six gold and multi-metal mines across China, Laos, and Ghana, with a total gold production of 461.5 thousand ounces in 2023 [1]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from gold mining, accounting for 87.6% of total revenue in 2023, with Laos and Ghana being the largest revenue sources [2]. - The company has a unique corporate culture and incentive mechanisms that drive continuous growth among management and employees [5]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 were 37.8 billion, 62.6 billion, and 72.2 billion CNY respectively, with a gross margin of 32.6% in 2023 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years was 5.8 billion, 4.5 billion, and 8.0 billion CNY, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [2]. Market Conditions - The global gold spot price is projected to rise at a CAGR of 7.1% from 2024 to 2028, reflecting strong demand [4]. - The company’s IPO price range is set between 13.72 and 15.83 HKD, with a total market capitalization estimated at 256.50 to 295.95 billion HKD post-IPO [11].

我们认为，医药行业在国民经济发展中发挥着举足轻重的作用。今年财政投入力 度的加大、老年医学建设的加强、创新药目录的新增等措施提出，与此前丙类医 保目录即将落地、商业险支付范围的拓宽相呼应，增进民生福祉，促进医疗、医 保、医药协同发展和治理。 SDICSI 2025 年 3 月 6 日 医药行业动态点评 2025 政府工作报告发布，促进三医协同发展 和治理 事件：3 月 5 日，在十四届全国人大三次会议上，国务院总理李强代表国务院向 大会作 2025 年《政府工作报告》（以下简称"《报告》"），其中指出，要强化基本 医疗卫生服务，完善社会保障和服务政策。 报告摘要 与 2024 年《政府工作报告》相比，今年的《报告》在创新药、集采政策等方面 作出了完善。具体对比如下：对于创新药，2024 年提出加快创新药产业发展， 今年则新增制定创新药目录，支持创新药发展，并健全药品价格形成机制；对于 集采，2024 年强调完善国家药品集中采购制度，今年则着重提出优化药品集采 政策，强化质量评估和监管；对于公立医院改革，2024 年提出深化公立医院改 革，以患者为中心改善医疗服务，推动检查检验结果互认，今年指出要深化以公 益性 ...

汪阳Alex Wang(中央編號：BIT765) 王强 Jimmy Wang(中央編號：BGJ404) 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 行业催化：2025年为人形机器人量产元年 港股机器人产业链解读与投资机会梳理 国证国际证券(香港)有限公司 • 研究部 2025年2月27日 2 企业 产品 量产时间 目标产能 核心场景 特斯拉 Optimus Gen2 2025Q4 1万台/年 汽车工厂装配、家 庭服务 优必选 Walker S1 2025Q2 5万台/年 工业质检、物流搬 运 Figure AI Figure 02 2025Q3 3万台/年 仓储管理、零售服 务 宇树科技 Unitree G1 2025Q1 2万台/年 消费级教育、安防 巡逻 三星电子 （未命名） 2025H2 1万台/年 医疗护理、酒店服 务 资料来源：互联网公开资料，国证国际研究整理 Unitree G1 Figure 02 Optimue-Gen2 优必选 Walker S 资料来源：公开资料，国证国际研究整理 2025/2/28 请参阅本报告尾部免责声明 2 Ø 成本下降曲线：2023年特斯拉Optimus原型机单台成本＞50万美元；工 ...