FY23 mostly in-line; Expect easing headwinds in FY24E
招银国际· 2024-03-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Intron Tech with a new target price (TP) of HK$5.53, based on a 12x FY24E P/E valuation methodology [13][14][21]. Core Insights - Intron's FY23 revenue was RMB 5.8 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year (YoY) growth, while net income decreased by 23.5% YoY to RMB 317 million. The gross profit margin (GPM) was 18.7%, down 2.8 percentage points YoY, attributed to intensified price competition [21][32]. - The company expects solid growth in the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) and Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) segments, driven by increasing demand and export opportunities in China. However, margin pressure may persist due to heightened competition [21][32]. - The report highlights a significant increase in R&D expenses, which reached 9.0% of revenue due to talent recruitment and upfront investments. Management anticipates a normalization of these expenses in FY24E [21][32]. Revenue Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,975 million in FY24E to RMB 10,805 million in FY26E, with a YoY growth rate of 20.2% in FY24E and 24.2% in FY25E [21][26]. - The breakdown of revenue by segment shows strong growth in New Energy (131.6% YoY in 2021, 91.0% in 2022) and Automation & Connectivity (151.3% YoY in 2022) [21][26]. Earnings Summary - The earnings forecast for FY24E includes a revenue estimate of RMB 6,975 million, a gross profit of RMB 1,298 million, and a net profit of RMB 441 million, indicating a 39% YoY growth in net profit [21][26][32]. - The report notes that the EPS for FY24E is expected to be RMB 0.41, with a consensus estimate of RMB 0.55 for FY25E [21][26]. Valuation Metrics - Intron is currently trading at 4.5x FY24E P/E, significantly lower than the average P/E of 22.8x for its peers, indicating that it is undervalued [14][21]. - The report emphasizes the attractive risk/reward profile of Intron, especially in light of potential catalysts such as favorable NEV policies and increasing penetration of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [14][21].
Expectations reset on conservative guidance; Maintain HOLD
招银国际· 2024-03-21 16:00
M N 22 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK) Expectations reset on conservative guidance; Maintain HOLD Target Price HK$47.31 Sunny Optical (Sunny)’s FY23 net profit was largely in-line with profit warning, but (Previous TP HK$50.71) 2H23 GPM of 14.1% (vs 19% in 2H22) was below expectations due to more intense Up/Downside 1.0% competition despite spec upgrade and more high-end models in 2H23. For 2024 Current Price HK$46.85 guidance, while mgmt. ...
Eyes on mini-game potential and cost control
招银国际· 2024-03-21 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for FriendTimes, with a target price of HK$1.8, indicating an upside potential of 80% from the current price of HK$1.00 [13][29]. Core Insights - FriendTimes reported a significant revenue decline of 31% YoY for FY23, with an adjusted net loss of RMB 133 million, which was largely in line with expectations. The decline was attributed to existing games' grossing decline and increased sales and marketing expenses [29]. - The new game "Twist of the Fate 2" (ToF2) has shown promising performance, ranking in the top 50-70 for iOS grossing in Q1 2024. The company expects ToF2 to maintain stable grossing and is focusing on expanding to Android and overseas markets [29]. - Management is prioritizing cost discipline in FY24, with adjustments in personnel and careful development of high-R&D projects. The report anticipates that mini-games will unlock additional grossing potential [29]. Financial Summary - For FY22, revenue was RMB 1,524 million, which decreased to RMB 1,056 million in FY23, with a projected recovery to RMB 1,474 million in FY24, and further growth to RMB 1,933 million in FY25 and RMB 2,048 million in FY26 [1][23]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 131.8 million in FY23 to a profit of RMB 180.3 million in FY24, increasing to RMB 256.9 million in FY25 and RMB 299.4 million in FY26 [1][23]. - The report indicates a significant drop in diluted EPS from 1.90 cents in FY22 to a loss of 6.10 cents in FY23, with a forecasted recovery to 8.27 cents in FY24 and further increases in subsequent years [1][23]. Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 50.7 in FY22 to 11.1 in FY24, indicating a more favorable valuation as earnings recover [1][25]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 68% from FY24 onwards, while the operating margin is projected to improve gradually [30][25]. - The report highlights a current ratio of 4.1 in FY23, indicating strong liquidity, which is expected to improve to 5.4 in FY24 [25].
More bullish on margin improvement
招银国际· 2024-03-20 16:00
M N 21 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Kuaishou (1024 HK) More bullish on margin improvement Target Price HK$97.0 We turn more bullish on Kuaishou’s (KS) margin enhancement ahead, with ads & (Previous TP HK$97.0) ecommerce share gains to continue. KS delivered solid 4Q23 results, with inline Up/Downside 85.6% revenue and upbeat bottom line. For FY24E, we expect total revenue +10.6% YoY, Current Price HK$52.25 with livestreaming/ads/other services revenue -8%/+20% ...
Still has potential to improve monetization
招银国际· 2024-03-20 16:00
PDD Holdings (PDD US) PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------|----------|----------|-----------|-----------| | (YE 31 Dec) | FY22A | FY23A | FY24E | FY25E | FY26E | | Revenue (RMB mn) | 130,558 | 247,639 | 389,619 | 492,359 | 540,111 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 31,538.1 | 60,026.5 | 83,882.9 | 118,906.4 | 127,694.3 | | Adjust ...
Best effort to ensure business continuity
招银国际· 2024-03-20 16:00
M N 20 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) Best effort to ensure business continuity Target Price RMB67.53 WuXi AppTec reported revenue of RMB40.3bn in 2023, up 2.5% YoY, (Previous TP RMB116.01) attributable recurring net income of RMB9.7bn, up 16.8% YoY, and attributable Up/Downside 32.9% adjusted non-IFRS net income of RMB10.9bn, up 15.5% YoY. Revenue was in- Current Price RMB50.81 line with Bloomberg consensus while attributable adjusted no ...
Steady rev growth with on-track loss reduction
招银国际· 2024-03-20 16:00
M N 20 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Kingdee (268 HK) Steady rev growth with on-track loss reduction Target Price HK$15.50 Kingdee reported 2023 financial results: revenue was RMB5.7bn, up 17% YoY (Previous TP HK$15.10) (2022: 17% YoY), and net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was Up/Downside 66.3% RMB210mn (2022: loss of RMB389mn), both in line with our estimate and Current Price HK$9.32 Bloomberg consensus. Kingdee’s loss reduction effort was on tra ...
Impressive FY24E guidance with decent yield
招银国际· 2024-03-20 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Lilang with a target price raised to HK$5.75, reflecting a 29.2% upside from the current price of HK$4.45 [2][4]. Core Insights - China Lilang is expected to outperform in FY24E due to operational efficiency improvements and product quality upgrades, with a robust retail sales growth target of 15%, including 20% growth for e-commerce [2][6]. - The company reported FY23 results that slightly beat expectations, with sales and net profit increasing by 15% and 18% year-over-year, respectively [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in working capital, with inventory and receivable days reduced to 170 and 42 days, respectively [2][9]. Financial Performance - FY23 revenue was RMB 3,544 million, with a gross profit margin of 48.2% and a net profit of RMB 530 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15% and 18% [3][9]. - For FY24E, revenue is projected to reach RMB 4,047 million, with a net profit of RMB 626 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 14% [6][9]. - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of HK$0.36 for FY23, resulting in a payout ratio of 74% and an 8% yield based on the current market capitalization [2][4]. Segment Performance - Sales growth rates for key segments in FY23 were 10% for the core brand, 35% for smart casual, and 18% for e-commerce [2][9]. - The smart casual segment is expected to continue its rapid growth, with sales per store already exceeding that of the core brand [2][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a P/E ratio of 8x for FY24E, which is considered attractive compared to the target P/E of 10x [2][4]. - The projected sales and net profit CAGR for FY23-26E is 11% and 14%, respectively, supporting the valuation [2][6].
Expect another fruitful year in 2024
招银国际· 2024-03-20 16:00
M N 20 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Akeso (9926 HK) Expect another fruitful year in 2024 In FY23, Akeso recorded RMB4.53bn in revenue, including RMB1.63bn from Target Price HK$59.61 product sales and RMB2.92bn from license income relevant to AK112 (PD- (Previous TP HK$51.23) 1/VEGF). Cadonilimab/AK104 (PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved RMB1.36bn in sales in Up/Downside 19.3% FY23, surpassing the Company’s initial guidance of RMB1.2-1.3bn. In 2H23, Current Price HK$49.95 A ...
Raise TP and estimates on 4Q23 beat; All eyes on EV official launch on 28 March
招银国际· 2024-03-20 16:00
M N 20 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xiaomi (1810 HK) Raise TP and estimates on 4Q23 beat; All eyes on EV official launch on 28 March Target Price HK$20.25 Xiaomi’s 4Q23 revenue/net profit of 11%/236% YoY growth beat our/consensus (Previous TP HK$19.54) estimates, driven by stronger margins, improving mix and investment gains. Up/Downside 36.3% Looking ahead, mgmt. is positive on smartphone recovery, premiumization Current Price HK$14.86 strategy and EV busines ...