Weathering a challenging FY24

Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-17 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Weibo, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [2][13]. Core Insights - Weibo's total revenue for 4Q23 grew by 3% YoY to US$464 million, slightly above estimates, while FY23 revenue declined by 4% YoY to US$1.76 billion [2]. - Non-GAAP operating income for 4Q23 decreased by 4% YoY to US$146 million, but was 7% ahead of consensus due to stringent control over product development expenses [2]. - The company plans to increase investment in content and user acquisition to drive top-line growth in 2024, with expected revenue flat YoY at US$1.77 billion [2]. - The target price has been lowered to US$18.80 from US$23.50, reflecting a discount to peers' average valuation [2]. Revenue and Profitability - For FY24, total revenue is projected at US$1.77 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasted at US$451 million, down 16-19% from previous estimates [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to decline to 25.5% in FY24E, reflecting increased investments [2][11]. - Advertising revenue in 4Q23 grew by 3% YoY to US$404 million, with specific verticals like automobiles and online games showing strong performance [2]. User Engagement and Community Development - Monthly Active Users (MAUs) increased by 2% YoY to 598 million as of December 2023 [2]. - Weibo is focusing on enhancing user stickiness through investments in key content verticals and optimizing social products [2]. Shareholder Returns - Weibo announced a special cash dividend of US$0.82 per share, translating to an approximate 8% dividend yield, aimed at supporting valuation recovery [2].
Solid FY23 with better profitability
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-17 16:00
M N 18 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tuhu Car (9690 HK) Solid FY23 with better profitability Target Price HK$35.3 Tuhu Car (Tuhu) achieved decent profit for the first time in FY23, with revenue (Previous TP HK$50.10) +18% YoY (in line) and adj. NP at RMB481mn (27% above consensus). Looking Up/Downside 195.2% into FY24E, we are positive on its resilient growth (forecasting revenue + 16% Current Price HK$11.96 YoY), backed by workshop expansion, richer offerings, ...
FY23 results beat helped by better 4Q
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-17 16:00
M N 18 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Shennan Circuit (002916 CH) FY23 results beat helped by better 4Q Q Shennan Circuit released its FY23 earnings, with revenue down 3.3% YoY to Target Price RMB79.00 RMB13.5bn (5%/2% higher than our forecast/consensus) and net profit down (Previous TP RMB72.00) 14.8% YoY to RMB1.4bn (11%/5% higher than our forecast/consensus). The Up/Downside -11.2% Company beat estimates thanks to a stronger-than-expected 4Q. The Current Pric ...
Focusing on margin enhancement
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-17 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Mobvista Inc. with a target price of HK$6.00, indicating an upside potential of 85.8% from the current price of HK$3.23 [5][15]. Core Insights - Mobvista's FY23 results were largely in line with expectations, showing a revenue increase of 18% year-over-year (YoY) and an adjusted net profit of US$19.1 million, which is 9% above consensus estimates [2][3]. - The company is expected to enhance profitability significantly in FY24, with a forecasted bottom line of US$37 million and a net margin of 2.9%, alongside solid revenue growth of 20% YoY [2][3]. - The report highlights the resilience of the Mintegral revenue, which grew by 19.5% YoY in Q4 2023, and anticipates continued momentum in midcore and hardcore games [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Mobvista's revenue for FY23 reached US$1,054 million, with a gross profit margin (GPM) improvement to 20.6%, up 0.8 percentage points YoY, driven by higher advertising efficiency and cost discipline [3][17]. - The company reported a significant increase in adjusted net profit, which rose by 97% YoY, reflecting strong operational performance [3][17]. - By segment, ad-tech and mar-tech revenues grew by 17.8% and 23.9% YoY, respectively, indicating robust growth across its business lines [3][17]. Future Outlook - For FY24, Mobvista is projected to achieve revenue of US$1,265 million, with continued growth expected in the lifestyle segment, which saw a remarkable 143% YoY increase in revenue [3][12]. - The intelligent bidding system upgrade is anticipated to facilitate category expansion, particularly in non-gaming sectors such as e-commerce [2][3]. - The adjusted net margin is expected to improve to 2.9% in FY24 and 3.0% in FY25, reflecting a positive long-term margin outlook [3][12]. Valuation Metrics - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, applying a 20x FY24E P/E for the ad-tech business and a 3x FY24E P/S for the mar-tech business, resulting in a target price of HK$6.00 [2][14]. - The projected earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for FY24-26 is estimated at 21%, indicating strong growth potential compared to industry peers [2][14].
Results Were in Line with Expectations, While Layout in EV Mobility to Bring Huge Expandable Market Space, "Buy"
国泰君安证券· 2024-03-14 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for FIT Hon Teng is maintained as "Buy" with a target price (TP) set at HK$1.65 [3][7]. Core Insights - The FY23 results were in line with expectations, with operating revenue decreasing by 7.4% year-on-year to US$4,196 million and shareholders' net profit decreasing by 23.5% year-on-year to US$130 million [9][11]. - The company is implementing a "3+3" strategy focusing on the development of electric vehicles (EVs), 5G AIoT, and acoustics, which is expected to drive future growth [11][13]. - The revenue mix from EV Mobility, new Generation 5G AIoT, and Audio is projected to reach 30% in 2024 and 40% in 2025 [11][13]. Financial Performance - Forecasted EPS for FY24-FY26 is US$0.023, US$0.029, and US$0.035 respectively, with a 9.0x PER for 2024 [7][9]. - The gross profit margin increased by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year to 19.2% in FY23, while R&D expenses as a percentage of total revenue increased to 7.3% [9][22]. - The company expects revenue growth in the coming years, with total revenue projected to increase from US$4,196 million in FY23 to US$5,472 million by FY26 [22]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The acquisition of SWH, now FIT Voltaira, enhances the company's product offerings in the EV sector, positioning it to meet the growing demand for high-voltage connectors and wiring harnesses [13][11]. - The company aims to expand its customer base and production capabilities in the EV mobility sector, leveraging its global layout and partnerships through MIH [11][13]. - The audio business is also expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-speed connections driven by AI server growth and data center construction [11][13].
FY23 in line; upbeat FY24E outlook on AI server/networking, EV and AirPods upside
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-13 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for FIT Hon Teng with a new target price of HK$2.21, representing a 64.7% upside from the current price of HK$1.34 [4][15]. Core Insights - FIT Hon Teng's FY23 results were in line with expectations, reporting revenue of US$4,196 million, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, and a net profit of US$130 million, down 24% year-on-year. The decline was attributed to softer demand in traditional servers and PCs, while the EV segment saw a significant increase of 100% year-on-year due to the Voltaira merger [2][3]. - The management provided an optimistic outlook for FY24E, forecasting double-digit year-on-year growth in both revenue and gross profit, driven by new product launches and synergies from the Voltaira auto electronics business. Revenue and net profit are expected to rebound by 12.2% and 41.6% year-on-year, respectively [2][10]. Financial Performance Summary - FY23 revenue was US$4,196 million, with a gross margin of 19.2%, an improvement from 16.9% in FY22, due to a better product mix and effective execution of the "3+3 Strategy" [2][19]. - The company expects revenue for FY24E to reach US$4,706 million, with a gross profit of US$931 million, reflecting a gross margin of 19.8% [10][19]. - The net profit for FY24E is projected at US$183 million, with an EPS of 2.58 US cents, indicating a significant recovery from FY23 [11][19]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include the integration of Voltaira's auto business, advancements in AI server and networking products, and increased orders for AirPods expected in Q3 2024 from major US customers [2][10]. - The report highlights the attractive valuation of FIT Hon Teng, trading at 6.6x FY24E P/E, which is considered favorable given the anticipated earnings visibility and growth potential [2][15]. Market Position - FIT Hon Teng's market capitalization is approximately HK$9,737.8 million, with a shareholding structure dominated by Foxconn Far East Ltd, holding 71.1% [5][16]. - The stock has shown strong performance, with a 1-month increase of 38.1% and a 3-month increase of 27.6% [5].
US equity opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven
FRANKLIN TEMPLETON· 2024-03-13 16:00
US equity opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven March 2024 Chris Galipeau Senior Market Strategist Key takeaways • High earnings expectations combined with a slowing economy may make the stock market prone to disappointments in 2024. Samir Sinha Senior Analyst • The “dot-com” period, which featured similar index concentration and falling interest rates, offers clues to trends this year. • We see attractive potential in areas that would allow investors to diversify their US equity portfolios beyond the ...
Resilient outlook backed by rising popularity
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-13 16:00
M N 14 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update 361 Degrees (1361 HK) Resilient outlook backed by rising popularity Target Price HK$6.25 361 Degrees’s FY23 result was roughly inline but we are delighted to see its dividend payout ratio resumed to 40%. Going forward in FY24E, we are still (Previous TP HK$6.23) confident, thanks to: 1) its wholesale business nature (supported by 80%+ sell Up/Downside 36.6% through rate), 2) resilient retail sales growth (20%+ in Jan-Feb 202 ...
2023 earnings in line; 15% share price pullback looks overdone
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-12 16:00
M N 13 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Horizon CD (9930 HK) 2023 earnings in line; 15% share price pullback BUY (Maintain) looks overdone Target Price HK$3.70 Horizon CD’s core net profit in 2023 grew 10% YoY to RMB1bn, in line with our (Previous TP HK$5.20) expectation. While the lack of dividend payout is disappointing given that Up/Downside 189.1% positive free cash flow is achieved, we believe the 15% share price pullback Current Price HK$1.28 yesterday was o ...
FY23E Preview: industry headwinds mostly priced in; Awaiting recovery in FY24E
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2024-03-12 16:00
FY23E Preview: industry headwinds mostly priced in; Awaiting recovery in FY24E PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk1 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates 28% 37% 15% -14% 59%52% 19% 20% 24% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E (RMB mn) Revenue YoY Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON ...