Workflow
Star products & sponsorships-led turnaround
招银国际· 2024-03-12 16:00
M N 13 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Initiation 361 Degrees (1361 HK) Star products & sponsorships-led turnaround BUY Target Price HK$6.23 We initiate BUY on 361 Degrees with TP of HK$6.23 based on 10x FY24E P/E. We forecast 16%/20% sales/ NP CAGRs in FY22-25E vs 7%/20% during Up/Downside 43.5% FY19-22, driven by major improvements in: 1) star products and endorsement Current Price HK$4.34 quality, 2) offline store images and e-commerce strategy, and 3) kids business. China C ...
Driving growth in a more ambitious way
招银国际· 2024-03-12 16:00
JD.com (JD US) Target Price US$52.00 (Previous TP US$52.00) Up/Downside 142.5% Current Price US$21.44 China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA (852) 3916 1739 hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO franktao@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Mkt Cap (US$ mn) 33,993.1 Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn) 354.7 52w High/Low (US$) 46.98/21.44 Total Issued Shares (mn) 1585.5 Source: FactSet Shareholding Structure Richard Qiangdong Liu 13.8% Max Smart Limitied 13.3% Source: HKEx Share Performance Absolute Relative 1-mth -11. ...
Streaming and ESPN+ on the rise
招银国际· 2024-03-12 16:00
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Walt Disney Co with a BUY rating and a target price of US$142, implying a 28.7% upside from the current price of US$110.3 [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Disney is expected to benefit from streaming and sports industry tailwinds, alongside cost control initiatives. The company has shown significant improvement in streaming losses and operational efficiency, with management guiding for an EPS of US$4.6 (+22% YoY) and free cash flow of US$8 billion in FY24E. Streaming profitability is anticipated by 4QFY24E, with projected revenue and earnings CAGR of 5% and 16% respectively from FY24-26E [2][3][28]. Company Overview - Established in 1923, Disney is a global entertainment and media conglomerate with a diversified portfolio that includes film production, theme parks, and streaming services. The company is currently prioritizing its streaming and ESPN segments, supported by cash flow from its Experiences business [12][17]. Streaming and Sports Growth - Disney+ has reached 150 million paid subscribers as of 1QFY24, with expectations for continued growth driven by strong content, AVOD initiatives, and paid-sharing strategies. The report forecasts a 4% CAGR in Disney+ subscribers from FY24-26E, with net adds of 5.5-6 million expected in 2QFY24E [2][20][38]. Parks and Experiences - The Parks segment is projected to be a significant cash generator, contributing approximately two-thirds of the Group's operating income in FY24E, with an expected 10% CAGR in operating income from FY24-26E. Revenue from US parks is anticipated to accelerate in the second half of FY24E [2][3][9]. Financial Performance - For FY24E, Disney's revenue is expected to reach US$91.8 billion, with a YoY growth of 3.3%. Adjusted net profit is projected at US$8.5 billion, reflecting a 23.9% increase YoY. The diluted EPS is forecasted to be US$4.62, a 23.4% increase YoY [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report sets a target price based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, implying a P/E ratio of 30.7x for FY24E, which is 14% below Netflix's valuation but slightly above the industry average [2][4]. Key Catalysts - The report identifies several key catalysts for Disney's growth, including the upcoming breakeven on streaming, strong net subscriber additions, resilient performance in parks, and progress in the sports segment [2][3][4].
FY23E Preview: industry headwinds mostly priced in; Awaiting recovery in FY24E
招银国际· 2024-03-12 16:00
FY23E Preview: industry headwinds mostly priced in; Awaiting recovery in FY24E PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk1 Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates 28% 37% 15% -14% 59%52% 19% 20% 24% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E (RMB mn) Revenue YoY Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON ...
Improved margins in 2023
招银国际· 2024-03-10 16:00
M N 11 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update ZTE (000063 CH) Improved margins in 2023 Target Price RMB34.20 ZTE released its FY23 results. Revenue grew by 1.1% YoY to RMB124bn, in line with consensus and 3% higher than our forecast. Net profit increased by 15.4% (Previous TP RMB36.90) YoY to RMB9.3bn, 5% lower than consensus and in line with our forecasts. Gross Up/Downside 13.3% margin for 2023 was 41.5%, representing a 434bps increase from FY22. NPM Current Price RMB ...
Improved margins in 2023; expect steady growth in 2024
招银国际· 2024-03-10 16:00
Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating with an adjusted target price of HK$24.8, based on 10x 2024E P/E, close to its 3-year average [3][4] Core View - ZTE is expected to capitalize on emerging trends in the telecom industry, focusing on the evolution towards 5.5G/6G and AI compute power [3] - The company's profitability improved steadily due to operation optimization and cost reduction, including the use of self-developed components [3] - Revenue growth is projected to be steady, with FY24E revenue expected to reach RMB133.7bn, a 7.6% YoY increase [1][3] Financial Performance - FY23 revenue grew by 1.1% YoY to RMB124.3bn, in line with consensus and 3% higher than forecasts [3] - FY23 net profit increased by 15.4% YoY to RMB9.3bn, 5% lower than consensus but in line with forecasts [3] - Gross margin for FY23 was 41.5%, a 434bps increase from FY22, driven by cost optimization and favorable revenue mix [3] - FY24E net profit is projected to grow by 16.3% YoY to RMB10.8bn, with a net margin of 8.1% [1][3] Segment Performance - Carrier segment revenue increased by 3.4% YoY, driven by domestic market share gains and overseas progress [3] - Consumer segment sales declined by 1.3% YoY due to overseas inventory digestion and intensified competition, partially offset by domestic growth in family network business [3] - Enterprise & government segment sales declined by 7.1% YoY in 2023 due to a slowdown in investment [3] Valuation Metrics - FY24E P/E is projected at 7.3x, with ROE expected to reach 14.3% [1] - FY25E P/E is projected at 6.5x, with ROE expected to reach 14.5% [1] Market Data - Current price is HK$17.92, with an upside potential of 38.4% to the target price of HK$24.8 [4] - Market capitalization is HK$13.5bn, with an average 3-month turnover of HK$162mn [5]
Steady progress towards a sustainable business model
招银国际· 2024-03-10 16:00
M N 8 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Bilibili (BILI US) Steady progress towards a sustainable business model Target Price US$20.50 Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to (Previous TP US$24.00) RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by Up/Downside 89.6% 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, Current Price US$10.81 mainly attributable to the better-than-expecte ...
4Q23 cFX revenue +18%; Miu Miu overshot
招银国际· 2024-03-10 16:00
M N 8 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Prada SpA (1913 HK) 4Q23 cFX revenue +18%; Miu Miu overshot 4Q results were a beat to us and consensus, with the quarter’s net revenue Target Price HK$65.2 expanding by cFX +18.1%. The strength was mainly driven by 82% growth in Miu (Previous TP HK$64.5) Miu (vs CMBIe 50%+). All regions marked robust growth, especially Japan (cFX Up/Downside 17.1% +38%) and APAC (cFX +32%), when the US continued to record sequential Current P ...
Resurgence of "CATL Inside"
Morgan Stanley· 2024-03-09 16:04
M Asia Pacific Insight March 10, 2024 08:40 AM GMT Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Jack Lu Equity Analyst Resurgence of "CATL Inside" Jack.Lu@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5044 Kaylee Xu Equity Analyst What’s Changed Kaylee.Xu@morganstanley.com +852 2239-1506 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (300750.SZ) From To Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch+ Rating Equal-weight Overweight Young Suk Shin Price Target Rmb184.00 Rmb210.00 Equity Analyst Young.S ...
A trailblazer in ADC arena
招银国际· 2024-03-06 16:00
6 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Initiation Kelun-Biotech (6990 HK) ` A trailblazer in ADC arena BUY (Initiation) Target Price HK$152.26  Kelun-Biotech, a trailblazer in biotech innovation, boasts a diverse ADC Up/Downside 30.4% pipeline with strategic backing from MSD. Leveraging a robust integrated ADC Current Price HK$116.80 platform, the company has developed several differentiated clinical-stage ADCs - including SKB264 (TROP2 ADC), A166 (HER2 ADC), SKB315 (CLDN18 ...