Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for data centers, but the valuation has fully reflected the positive fundamentals [5][6]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 8.58, reflecting a potential downside of 3.6% from the current price of HKD 8.90 [1][5]. - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and operating cash flow, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 14.0% in the first half of the fiscal year 2025 [5][6]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2023, the company reported revenue of HKD 2,346 million, with projected revenue growth to HKD 3,322 million by 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.3% [4][9]. - Net profit for 2023 was HKD 905 million, expected to rise to HKD 1,198 million by 2025, indicating a growth rate of 32.0% [4][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of fiscal year 2025 was HKD 1,053 million, up 17.1% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 71.6% [5][6]. Market Position and Capacity - The company has successfully launched its first phase of the MEGA IDC, which is set to be the largest data center in Hong Kong, with a total floor area of approximately 500,000 square feet and a power capacity of 50 MW [5][6]. - The company anticipates a decrease in capital expenditures by 10-20% annually from 2025 to 2027, having passed the peak of capital spending and interest rate cycles [5][6]. - The total capacity is expected to reach 280 MW, with current equipped capacity at 103 MW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12 MW [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Shengmu [8][10]. Core Views - China Shengmu is the largest organic raw milk producer in China, focusing on upstream ranch operations and benefiting from a strong partnership with Mengniu Dairy, which holds a 29.99% stake in the company [3][8]. - The high-end organic milk market is expanding due to consumer upgrades driven by rising income levels and the emergence of a new middle class [5][30]. - The company has a unique geographical advantage in the Ulan Buh Desert, which enhances its product quality and safety, creating a competitive moat [6][65]. - The scale of operations allows the company to effectively manage risks and improve operational efficiency, particularly in the face of fluctuating feed prices [7][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Shengmu was founded in 2009 and became the first global organic raw milk stock listed in Hong Kong in 2014. The company has shifted its focus to organic raw milk production since 2018, partnering with Mengniu to enhance operational efficiency [18][21]. - The company operates a fully organic supply chain, from pasture planting to milk processing, and has received dual certification for organic standards from China and the EU [18][69]. Market Potential - The report highlights that the average per capita consumption expenditure in China has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.96% from 2010 to 2023, indicating a strong foundation for high-end milk consumption [30]. - Organic milk is becoming a popular choice among consumers due to its higher quality standards and health benefits, with the market for organic products in China expected to grow significantly [37][47]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency by focusing on large-scale ranching, which reduces the risk of disease and allows for better cost management [7][52]. - The report notes that the proportion of organic raw milk sales has increased from 41.4% in 2019 to 77% in 2023, contributing to improved profitability [25][78]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are expected to be -80 million, -20 million, and 291 million yuan, respectively, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [8]. - The report estimates that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 will be 6 times, reflecting the company's growth potential in the organic milk sector [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Budweiser APAC [2] Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 6.246 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 726 million, down 14.8% year-on-year. The company proposed a dividend increase from 5.29 cents per share in 2023 to 5.66 cents in 2024, totaling USD 750 million, with a payout ratio of 103.25% [7] - The report anticipates a recovery in demand in 2025, contingent on improved conditions in the restaurant and nightlife sectors, which could lead to a rebound in beer sales [7] - The company is focusing on expanding its high-end product offerings and increasing its distribution channels, with the number of cities served growing to 235 by the end of 2024 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Budweiser APAC are as follows: - 2023: USD 6.856 billion - 2024: USD 6.246 billion - 2025E: USD 6.665 billion - 2026E: USD 6.971 billion - 2027E: USD 7.191 billion - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: USD 852 million - 2024: USD 726 million - 2025E: USD 788 million - 2026E: USD 838 million - 2027E: USD 881 million - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 19 for 2025, 18 for 2026, and 17 for 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - Aneng Logistics, a leader in the franchise express delivery sector, has shifted its focus to profitability and quality since 2022, achieving a turnaround to profitability in 2023, with accelerated profit growth expected in 2024 [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aneng Logistics is a leader in the express delivery market, having pioneered the franchise model in 2012 and rapidly expanded its operations. The company has maintained the top position in franchise express delivery volume since 2021, but faced profitability challenges due to an overemphasis on scale [5][21][38]. Industry Evolution - The express delivery industry is experiencing significant changes due to the flattening of distribution channels and the optimization of the less-than-truckload (LTL) market. Aneng Logistics benefits from these trends, with the express delivery segment expected to see increased penetration [6][51]. Strategic Transformation - The company has undergone a strategic transformation since late 2022, focusing on quality and profitability. Key initiatives include eliminating mandatory warehouse fees and penalties, optimizing cargo structure, and enhancing operational efficiency [7][73]. Financial Performance - Aneng Logistics has shown significant improvement in gross profit margins and revenue growth, with a projected net profit of 780 million, 930 million, and 1.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8][14][46]. Market Dynamics - The overall express delivery market is expected to grow, with Aneng Logistics positioned to capture market share as weaker regional and specialized companies exit the market. The company’s revenue growth is anticipated to outpace the industry average [6][58].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The company has released a positive earnings forecast, expecting a net profit of approximately 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 236% to 260%, which exceeds market expectations [3][4]. - The significant growth in 2024 is attributed to three main factors: 1) upward brand momentum leading to substantial revenue growth from existing stores, 2) continuous product optimization and new launches driving revenue, and 3) the addition of 7 new stores and the optimization of 4 existing stores contributing to revenue increments [3][4]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 810 to 910 million yuan for the second half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 270% to 316%, indicating a notable acceleration in performance [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected financials for 2023 to 2026 are as follows: - Revenue (million yuan): 3180 (2023), 8647 (2024E), 14559 (2025E), 19572 (2026E) with growth rates of 146%, 172%, 68%, and 34% respectively [6]. - Net profit (million yuan): 416 (2023), 1437 (2024E), 2488 (2025E), 3404 (2026E) with growth rates of 340%, 245%, 73%, and 37% respectively [6]. - Diluted earnings per share (yuan): 3.03 (2023), 8.53 (2024E), 14.78 (2025E), 20.22 (2026E) [6]. - Price-to-earnings ratios (PE): 60 (2024E), 34 (2025E), 25 (2026E) [6]. Brand and Market Position - The company is positioned in the high-end gold jewelry market, leveraging its unique "ancient method gold" and non-heritage craftsmanship to enhance brand value and attract high-net-worth customers [4][5]. - The ongoing increase in gold prices is expected to further enhance the attractiveness of the company's high-end jewelry offerings, meeting consumer demand for value preservation [4]. - The company plans to adjust product prices on February 25, 2025, to accelerate sales momentum, following a previous price increase in September 2024, which coincided with a 16% rise in domestic gold prices [4].

证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 26 日 公司研究 | 业绩报告总结 (持有，目标价 1.57 元) 光大水务(1857 HK) | 主要数据 | | --- | | 2025E 平均市盈率 (x) 3.6 | | 2025E 平均市净率(x) 0.37 | | 2025E 平均股息收益率(%) 8.5 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | 股价表现 (%) | | | --- | --- | | 个月 1.4 | 1 | | 个月 2.9 | 3 | | 今年以来 -0.7 | | | 资料来源：彭博 | | 2024 年纯利下跌 14%；派息率提高 2024 年盈利同比下跌 14%。光大水务公布 2024 年业绩，期内收入 68.5 亿港元， 同比增长 2%，归属于母公司盈利 10.2 亿港元，同比减少 14%，每股中期股息 5.81 港仙，全年派息 11.9 港仙，派息比率由 30%提高至 33%。收入增长惟盈利下跌主 要因为 1）建造服务收入比重增加及建造服务成本增加，令整体毛利率下调 4 个 百分点至 38%；2)行政开支同比增长 10%。 建造收入占比上升至 39%。由于期内筹建项目先后开工，年内建 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Lenovo Group's performance is driven by AI, with the ISG segment turning profitable [1] - For FY25 Q3, Lenovo achieved revenue of $18.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.6%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.3% [4] - The company reported a net profit of $690 million for FY25 Q3, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 105.6% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 93.3% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of FY25, Lenovo reported revenue of $52.09 billion, up 21.1% year-over-year, and a net profit of $1.3 billion, up 69.7% year-over-year [4] - The gross margin for FY25 Q3 was 15.74%, with a net margin of 2.15% [4] Business Segments - **IDG Segment**: Revenue reached $13.78 billion, growing 11.5% year-over-year and 2.0% quarter-over-quarter. Lenovo maintained a 24.5% market share in global PC shipments [5] - **ISG Segment**: Revenue was $3.94 billion, a significant increase of 59.2% year-over-year and 19.1% quarter-over-quarter, with operating profit turning positive [6] - **SSG Segment**: Revenue was $2.26 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 11.7% and an operating profit margin of 20% [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are $67.56 billion, $75.47 billion, and $81.03 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of $1.55 billion, $1.65 billion, and $1.91 billion [8] - The forecasted P/E ratios for FY25-27 are 13.2, 12.4, and 10.7 respectively [11]

证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 26 日 公司研究 | 业绩报告总结 (持有，目标价 1.57 元) 光大水务(1857 HK) | 主要数据 | | --- | | 2025E 平均市盈率 (x) 3.6 | | 2025E 平均市净率(x) 0.37 | | 2025E 平均股息收益率(%) 8.5 | | 资料来源：彭博 | | 股价表现 (%) | | | --- | --- | | 个月 1.4 | 1 | | 个月 2.9 | 3 | | 今年以来 -0.7 | | | 资料来源：彭博 | | 2024 年纯利下跌 14%；派息率提高 2024 年盈利同比下跌 14%。光大水务公布 2024 年业绩，期内收入 68.5 亿港元， 同比增长 2%，归属于母公司盈利 10.2 亿港元，同比减少 14%，每股中期股息 5.81 港仙，全年派息 11.9 港仙，派息比率由 30%提高至 33%。收入增长惟盈利下跌主 要因为 1）建造服务收入比重增加及建造服务成本增加，令整体毛利率下调 4 个 百分点至 38%；2)行政开支同比增长 10%。 建造收入占比上升至 39%。由于期内筹建项目先后开工，年内建 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has a strong cost advantage and a high proportion of N-type products, with inventory levels at a low point in the industry. As an intermediate product in granular silicon production, the company benefits from leading cost advantages in silane gas and is expected to see profit growth due to downstream demand recovery. The company is also advancing in perovskite technology and is building GW-level production lines to expand long-term capacity. The silicon material industry is currently at a cyclical low, and if policies promote capacity clearance, the company could see significant profit and valuation elasticity. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are -4.62 billion, -0.33 billion, and 2.78 billion respectively [4][5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 33.7 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. For 2024, revenue is expected to drop significantly to 15.625 billion, a decrease of 53.6%, followed by a recovery to 18.54 billion in 2025 (up 18.7%) and 24.81 billion in 2026 (up 33.8%) [3][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.51 billion in 2023, but is expected to turn negative at -4.62 billion in 2024 and -0.33 billion in 2025, before rebounding to 2.78 billion in 2026 [3][6]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to -20.1% in 2024, with a recovery to 8.0% in 2025 and 26.1% in 2026 [3][6]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is calculated at 12.1 for 2023 and is projected to be 11.7 for 2026 [3][6]. Production and Cost Advantages - By the end of 2024, the company’s nominal production capacity for granular silicon is expected to reach 420,000 tons, with production and shipment volumes projected at 269,200 tons and 281,900 tons respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 32% and 45% [4]. - The cash cost of granular silicon production is expected to decrease to 33.52 yuan/kg in 2024, with quarterly reductions anticipated throughout the year due to lower raw material costs and ongoing technological improvements [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from potential capacity clearance in the silicon material industry, supported by government policies aimed at orderly development of the new energy sector [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lenovo Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Lenovo Group's performance is driven by AI, with the ISG segment turning profitable [1] - For FY25 Q3, Lenovo achieved revenue of $18.8 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.6%, and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.3% [4] - The company reported a net profit of $690 million for FY25 Q3, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 105.6% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 93.3% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of FY25, Lenovo reported revenue of $52.09 billion, up 21.1% year-over-year, and a net profit of $1.3 billion, up 69.7% year-over-year [4] - The gross margin for FY25 Q3 was 15.74%, with a net margin of 2.15% [4] Business Segments - **IDG Segment**: Revenue reached $13.78 billion, growing 11.5% year-over-year, with a global PC market share of 24.5% [5] - **ISG Segment**: Revenue was $3.94 billion, up 59.2% year-over-year, with a breakeven operating profit margin [6] - **SSG Segment**: Revenue was $2.26 billion, with a stable operating profit margin of 20% [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are $67.56 billion, $75.47 billion, and $81.03 billion respectively, with net profit estimates of $1.55 billion, $1.65 billion, and $1.91 billion [8] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections [8]