Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919.SS) with a 12-month price target of Rmb13.80 for A-shares and HK$10.70 for H-shares [1][2][4] Core Views - COSCO SHIPPING Holdings reported a strong 9M24 net profit of Rmb38bn, up 73% YoY, accounting for 87% of the full-year Bloomberg consensus of Rmb43bn [1] - Q3 net profit surged 286% YoY and 110% QoQ to Rmb21.3bn, driven by higher contract rates for Europe routes due to rerouting amid the Red Sea disruption [1][3] - The company's new pricing strategy, which includes more floating adjustments on contract rates, contributed to the earnings beat [1][3] - The FY24 dividend yield of 8.8%/12.0% for A/H-shares is attractive, trading above its historical average [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 12/24E is projected at Rmb230.3bn, with EBITDA expected to reach Rmb74.2bn [2] - EPS for 12/24E is forecasted at Rmb2.62, with a P/E ratio of 6.0x [2] - The company's net debt/EBITDA ratio is expected to improve to -1.5x by 12/24E [2] Industry and Market Context - The average SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) for Europe and Med routes increased by 308% YoY and 86% from March-May, reflecting higher freight rates [1][3] - The Red Sea disruption has led to longer voyage times, delaying revenue recognition for Europe routes, with Q3 revenue reflecting freight rates from June to August [1][3] - Fuel costs, historically 15-20% of total opex, decreased by 2% QoQ in Q3, contributing to higher profits [3] Valuation and Risks - The 12-month price targets are based on 0.8x/1.1x FY25E target P/BV multiples, above historical averages, reflecting higher ROE expectations due to supply chain complexity [7] - Upside risks include unexpected events reducing effective capacity and potential special dividend payouts [7][8] - Downside risks include faster-than-expected new ship deliveries and weaker-than-expected global trade demand [7][8] Freight Rate Analysis - The SCFI Comprehensive index stood at 2,135 as of 27-Sep-24, with Europe and Med routes showing significant YoY increases of 279% and 242%, respectively [6] - US West Coast and East Coast freight rates also saw substantial YoY growth, at 265% and 140%, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Daqo and Flat H/Xinyi, while Longi is rated "Neutral" and GCL/Tongwei/TCL Zhonghuan are rated "Sell" [3][8]. Core Insights - The solar industry is experiencing a re-balancing of supply and demand, with upstream prices for Poly and Wafer seeing moderate increases, while downstream prices for Cell and Module are under intense competition, leading to a decline in profitability for these segments [1][11]. - Cash burn trends for covered companies are diverging, with Daqo expected to improve due to lower production and disciplined capital expenditure, while Tongwei and Longi are facing deterioration due to high capital expenditures and decreasing prices [2][5]. - A potential price rebound of 5%-10% across the solar value chain is anticipated by 2025, driven by continued supply cuts [3][8]. Summary by Sections Pricing Trends - In September, spot prices for Poly/Wafer increased by 1%, while Cell/Module prices decreased by 2% and 2% respectively, indicating a mixed pricing environment across the solar value chain [11][31]. - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for Poly improved slightly, while other segments like Wafer, Cell, and Module saw further declines [1][5]. Production and Inventory - Production for Poly, Wafer, Cell, and Glass decreased by 4%, 4%, 4%, and 8% respectively, while Module production remained flat [8][9]. - Inventory levels showed a moderate decline for downstream Cell and Module, but increased for Wafer and Glass, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [8][9]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for solar installations in China showed a sequential decline, with August installations down 22% month-over-month but up 3% year-over-year [31]. - Module exports remained flat month-over-month but increased by 23% year-over-year, with strong demand noted in the Middle East and APAC regions [31].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sector. Core Insights - The NEV sector in China is experiencing significant growth, with weekly insurance registrations for passenger vehicles reaching 658k units, a 44.3% increase week-over-week (wow) from 456k units. New energy vehicle registrations also saw a rise to 327k units, up 43.4% wow from 228k units [8][10]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is at 49.7%, showing a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - BYD Group, Tesla China, and Li Auto are the top three companies in terms of market share, holding 33.8%, 6.9%, and 4.3% respectively [10]. Summary by Sections NEV Market Performance - NEV weekly insurance registration was 327k units, +43.4% wow from 228k units in the previous week [8]. - The overall passenger vehicle weekly insurance registration was 658k units, +44.3% wow from 456k units [8]. - NEV penetration was 49.7%, down 0.3pp from 50.0% [8]. Brand Performance - Fangchengbao, Denza, and XPeng showed the strongest volume growth of 104%, 100%, and 80% respectively [10]. - Tesla China, Aion, and XPeng gained market share by 0.9pp, 0.4pp, and 0.4pp respectively, while BYD Group, Li Auto, and AITO lost market share by 2.6pp, 0.9pp, and 0.4pp respectively [10]. Pricing Dynamics - The average discount of dealer prices vs. MSRPs for NEVs was 7.71% as of September 30, down from 8.10% on September 23 [4]. - The average discount for ICE vehicles was 21.07% as of September 30, slightly up from 20.93% [5]. - Battery grade lithium carbonate price was Rmb78.3k/ton, +2.0% wow, and LFP prismatic cell price was Rmb0.350/Wh, flat wow [6]. Trade-in Applications - As of September 25, the Ministry of Commerce's trade-in information platform received over 1.13 million applications for the auto trade-in subsidy program, with an average of 10k new applications daily during the period of September 23-25 [11][12]. Upcoming Events - Key events to watch include the NEV OEM monthly volume release on October 1 and the Shenzhen Auto Show from October 1-5 [15][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ganyuan Foods is maintained as BUY with a target price of RMB 69.36, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the closing price of RMB 54.90 as of August 7, 2024 [8][9]. Core Insights - Ganyuan Foods experienced a quarter-on-quarter slowdown in revenue growth in 2Q24 due to off-season effects and personnel adjustments within the distribution team. However, year-on-year growth remains strong with revenue, attributable net profit, and recurring net profit for 1H24 increasing by 26.1%, 39.3%, and 40.0% respectively [3][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin (GPM) declined by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year in 2Q24, attributed to structural changes in product sales channels and weakening economies of scale. Despite this, the company expects to increase its payout ratio, enhancing shareholder returns [5][6]. - Ganyuan Foods' classic products, including green peas, melon seeds, and flavored nuts, showed robust revenue growth, with significant contributions from membership supermarkets and bulk sales channels [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H24, Ganyuan Foods reported revenues of RMB 1,040 million, with a net profit of RMB 170 million. In 2Q24, revenues were RMB 460 million, reflecting a 4.9% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The company’s revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 2,254 million for 2024, RMB 2,714 million for 2025, and RMB 3,193 million for 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 380.61 million, RMB 468.71 million, and RMB 551.05 million [7][9]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 4.08, RMB 5.03, and RMB 5.91 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio projected at 17x for 2024 [6][7].

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating on Wanhua Chemical Group (600309 SS) with a revised 12-month target price of Rmb106 0 per share, up from Rmb103 0 [2][5] Core Thesis - The polyurethane cycle is bottoming out, with volume recovery across major players and sequentially improved pricing, although spread recovery was delayed due to high raw material prices [3] - Wanhua Chemical is well-positioned for cyclical recovery, with a leading position in one of the most consolidated commodity chemical supply chains and long-term structural growth opportunities [8] - The company is expected to grow earnings at a +c 20% CAGR over 2023-26E, driven by new capacity projects for high-margin specialty chemicals and normalization of petrochemical earnings [6][8] Financial Estimates - 2024E-26E EPS estimates reduced by 5-9% to reflect weaker-than-expected margins in performance chemicals and new materials segment, higher opex, impairment losses, and finance expenses [2] - 2024E revenue estimate revised to Rmb198 310mn (from Rmb199 624mn), 2025E to Rmb228 460mn (from Rmb231 413mn), and 2026E to Rmb261 360mn (from Rmb262 856mn) [5] - 2024E net profit estimate revised to Rmb16 670mn (from Rmb18 227mn), 2025E to Rmb22 071mn (from Rmb24 199mn), and 2026E to Rmb26 748mn (from Rmb28 149mn) [5] Valuation and Catalysts - Target EV/EBITDA multiple slightly lowered to 10 5x (from 11 0x) to reflect reduced growth forecasts, but valuation base year rolled forward to average 2024E-25E [2] - Potential catalysts include US rate cuts and improving construction activities in Europe in early-mid 2025, which should support recovery in polyurethane demand and drive pricing/margin upside [2] - Strong pipeline of new capacity projects for high-margin specialty chemicals (e g , polyolefin elastomers and flavor and fragrance) scheduled to come on stream in 2H24 [3] Industry Position - Wanhua Chemical is the largest global producer of MDI (30% share of 2023 global capacity) and TDI (25% share of 2022 capacity) [6] - The company accounts for ~80% of global new polyurethane supply over 2023-25E, with continued volume share gains expected [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Angel Yeast is maintained as BUY with a target price of RMB 38.39, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the closing price of RMB 30.87 as of August 12, 2024 [8][9]. Core Insights - Angel Yeast reported 2Q24 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth of 11.3% and 17.3% respectively. The company is expected to resume growth momentum due to increased demand in its main business and improved overseas performance [3][4]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for 2Q24 rose by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year to 23.9%, attributed to faster revenue growth from high-margin products and declining molasses prices, which are expected to reduce cost pressures [5][6]. - The company has revised its earnings forecasts upward, projecting EPS of RMB 1.60, RMB 1.80, and RMB 2.07 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on domestic demand recovery and overseas market expansion [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Performance - For 1H24, Angel Yeast's revenue reached RMB 7,180 million, with attributable net profit of RMB 690 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and 3.2% respectively. The overseas revenue grew by 17.9% year-on-year, while domestic revenue saw a modest increase of 0.9% [3][4]. - The performance of various product segments showed mixed results, with yeast and deep processing products increasing by 8.8% year-on-year, while sugar and packaging segments experienced declines of 26.5% and 12.8% respectively [4]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook for Angel Yeast includes projected revenues of RMB 14,969 million, RMB 16,629 million, and RMB 18,364 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [7][13]. - The company’s net profit is expected to reach RMB 1,390 million, RMB 1,565 million, and RMB 1,799 million for the same years, reflecting a positive growth trend [7][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for By-health is maintained as BUY with a target price of RMB15.37, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the closing price of RMB11.71 as of August 9, 2024 [7][8]. Core Insights - By-health's revenue and net profit have declined significantly in the first half of 2024, with revenue at RMB4,610 million (-17.6% year-on-year) and attributable net profit at RMB890 million (-42.3% year-on-year) [3][4]. - The decline is attributed to a high base from the previous year and challenges in the company's omni-channel strategy, which includes a diverse product lineup facing competition across various e-commerce platforms [3][4]. - The company plans to focus on its main brand and Life-Space, consolidating offline sales channels and enhancing product differentiation to expand into lower-tier markets [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 1H24, By-health's gross profit margin (GPM) fell to 68.6%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable decline in the second quarter to 66.8% [4]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 39.5% in 1H24, primarily due to higher brand promotion investments and increased platform expenses [4]. - The company has revised its earnings forecasts downward, estimating EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at RMB0.70, RMB0.83, and RMB0.97 respectively [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for By-health are as follows: RMB8,447 million for 2024, RMB9,268 million for 2025, and RMB10,032 million for 2026, reflecting a decline in 2024 followed by growth in subsequent years [6]. - Net profit estimates are projected at RMB1,188 million for 2024, RMB1,419 million for 2025, and RMB1,648 million for 2026, indicating a recovery trend after a significant drop in 2024 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - By-health continues to strengthen its brand presence despite facing short-term revenue adjustments due to changing consumer sentiment and increased competition [4]. - The company is focused on improving operational quality and refining its strategy to adapt to the evolving market landscape [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tasly Pharmaceutical is maintained at OVERWEIGHT, with a target price of RMB17.30, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the closing price of RMB13.85 as of August 9, 2024 [3][10][30]. Core Insights - The controlling shareholder of Tasly, Tasly Group, plans to transfer 28% of its share capital (approximately 418 million shares) to CR Sanjiu for a total consideration of around RMB6,212 million. This acquisition is expected to enhance CR Sanjiu's industrial chain and leverage Tasly's expertise in traditional Chinese medicine and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][4]. - Tasly is projected to achieve attributable net profits of RMB1.18 billion, RMB1.31 billion, and RMB1.46 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 11% [3][4]. - The report anticipates stable business fundamentals for Tasly in 2024, with steady growth in its traditional Chinese medicine segment and a rally in sales volume for chemical drugs driven by the VBP program [5][6]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - Tasly is recognized as a leader in traditional Chinese medicine prescription drugs and has a strong R&D pipeline with 98 products in development. The company has developed blockbuster products such as Danshen and Yangxue Qingnao [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB8,593 million in 2022 to RMB10,506 million by 2026, with net profit projected to increase from a loss of RMB256.51 million in 2022 to RMB1,460 million in 2026 [8][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from a loss of RMB0.17 in 2022 to RMB0.98 in 2026 [8][15]. R&D and Innovation - Tasly has consistently invested in R&D, with annual expenses ranging from RMB600 million to RMB900 million since 2018, representing an R&D expense ratio of 5-10%. The company has independently developed over 20 novel TCM products, with several projects expected to submit NDAs starting in 2024-2025 [6][4]. Market Position - The acquisition by CR Sanjiu is expected to reshape Tasly's competitive landscape, integrating management systems and potentially adjusting business practices from 2025 onwards [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wens Foodstuffs is "BUY" with a target price of RMB25.53, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the closing price of RMB19.78 as of August 12, 2024 [2][7]. Core Views - Wens Foodstuffs has experienced a significant rise in meat pig selling prices, with the average price reaching RMB18.95/kg in July, which is above the industry average. The estimated per-head profit for meat pigs is nearly RMB600 [2][3]. - The report anticipates buoyant demand for pigs and broilers in the second half of 2024 due to tight supply dynamics and an approaching peak consumption season, which is expected to sustain earnings growth for Wens [2][4]. - The financial projections for Wens indicate a net profit of RMB10.0 billion in 2024, increasing to RMB13.4 billion in 2025, and RMB13.1 billion in 2026, with a book value per share (BVPS) of RMB6.48, RMB8.29, and RMB10.16 respectively [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB89.92 billion in 2023 to RMB104.68 billion in 2024, and further to RMB125.67 billion in 2025 [5]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB6.39 billion in 2023 to RMB10.04 billion in 2024, and reach RMB13.36 billion in 2025 [5]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to improve from -0.96 in 2023 to 1.51 in 2024, and 2.01 in 2025 [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a potential contraction in hog supply in the second half of 2024, which is expected to drive up prices and enhance profitability for Wens [2][4]. - The demand for yellow-feather broilers is projected to increase due to early-stage destocking and seasonal consumption patterns, contributing to a favorable pricing environment [2][4]. Competitive Position - Wens Foodstuffs is noted for its solid cost advantage in hog breeding, which is expected to further enhance its per-head profit margins [2][4]. - The company is likely to continue making progress in breeding, production, and management, which will contribute to a steady decline in breeding costs [3][4].

Equity Research Report Jafron Biomedical (300529 CH) Earnings Grew Strongly in 2024 Huatai ResearchInterim Results Review 13 August 2024 | China (Mainland)Medical Devices Earnings growth continued to pace up in 2Q24; maintain BUY Jafron Biomedical (Jafron) registered 1H24 revenue/attributable net profit (NP) of RMB1,496/553mn (up 47.8/99.1% yoy) and 2Q24 revenue/attributable NP of RMB751/268mn (up 70.9/230.6% yoy), which further picked up from the growth rates in 1Q24 (revenue/attributable NP: up 30/44.9% y ...