Core Viewpoint - Volkswagen has received preliminary bids for its diesel engine division Everllence, valuing it at approximately €8 billion ($9.44 billion), which is higher than some analysts' estimates, indicating a trend of major corporates streamlining their portfolios and creating opportunities for buyout funds [1][1][1] Group 1: Bids and Valuation - The bids for Everllence include debt and are reported to be around €8 billion ($9.44 billion) [1][1] - This disposal is expected to be one of the largest carveouts by a European company in 2023, highlighting the ongoing trend of portfolio optimization among major corporations [1][1] Group 2: Interested Parties - Private equity firms such as Brookfield, CVC, and Blackstone have submitted bids for the unit, which produces shipping engines and heat pumps, as they seek stable industrial businesses [1][1] - Japanese diesel engine manufacturer Yanmar has also submitted a bid for Everllence [1][1] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Porsche SE, Volkswagen's largest shareholder, is considering investing in Everllence, reflecting strategic interest from existing stakeholders [1][1] - Volkswagen has requested bids to be submitted by mid-February and has informed some bidders that they are advancing to the second round of discussions [1][1]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 25 日 投资要点： | 市场数据 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,147.23 | 0.72% | 3.08% | | 创业板指 | 3,354.82 | 1.41% | 1.83% | | 沪深 300 | 4,735.89 | 0.60% | 0.38% | | 中证 1000 | 8,426.33 | 1.52% | 8.67% | | 科创 50 | 1,473.28 | 0.54% | 4.98% | | 北证 50 | 1,547.20 | 0.77% | 5.51% | 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月25日 华源晨会精粹 20260225 固定收益 25Q4 保险公司资金运用有何变化？根据国家金融监督管理总局数据，截 至 25Q4，保险公司资金运用余额共计 38.48 万亿元，较 25Q3 增长 2.71%。截至 25Q4 险资（财产险及人身险公司，下同）债券投资余额同比增长 17.43%，其中 25Q4 单季 ...

Core Viewpoint - Volkswagen is advancing plans to reduce its stake in Everllence, its unit that manufactures marine engines and heat pumps, with indicative offers received from private equity firms, valuing the unit at approximately €5bn to €6bn ($5.9bn to $7.1bn) [1][2] Group 1: Volkswagen's Strategic Moves - Volkswagen is looking to sell a controlling stake in Everllence while retaining a significant minority shareholding [2] - The sale of Everllence is part of Volkswagen's broader strategy to reshape its business amid declining demand and increased competition from Chinese manufacturers [2][6] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Context - Volkswagen reported a net cash flow of €6bn from its automotive division in 2025, indicating stronger cash generation than expected [3] - The European automotive industry is facing challenges from competition with China and a slower-than-expected transition to electric vehicles [4] Group 3: Industry Trends and Comparisons - The auction of Everllence coincides with Continental's sale of its ContiTech division, highlighting a trend among European industrial groups to streamline operations amid rising costs and regulatory pressures [6] - Private equity firms are increasingly interested in acquiring non-core assets from large industrial groups, seeing opportunities for performance improvement through further investment [6]

Group 1 - Volkswagen Group plans to sell its energy equipment division Everllence, attracting interest from top private equity firms including Blackstone, EQT, and CVC [1] - Everllence, formerly known as MAN Energy Solutions, primarily produces marine engines and heat pump equipment, with Volkswagen intending to spin off a majority stake while retaining a significant minority stake [1] - The sale of Everllence is seen as a strategy for Volkswagen to restructure its business amid weak demand and increased competition from Chinese automakers [1] Group 2 - Continental Group is also planning to sell its ContiTech division, which focuses on belts and hoses, aiming to refocus on its core tire business [2] - The timing of the sales by both Volkswagen and Continental reflects a broader trend among large European industrial groups to streamline their business structures in response to fluctuating energy costs, import pressures from China, and rising environmental regulatory costs [2] - The interest from private equity firms in such asset sales indicates a belief that further investment can significantly enhance the value of these business units [3] Group 3 - As of early November last year, the scale of private equity spin-off transactions in Europe approached €60 billion, accounting for 13.5% of total private equity deal volume [3]

Group 1 - Tesla's autonomous taxi service reported 14 accidents within 8 months of operation in Austin, including property damage and injuries, with plans to expand to 7 more cities by mid-year [2] - Blackstone, EQT, and CVC are competing to acquire Volkswagen's Everllence division, which produces marine engines and heat pumps, with a valuation between €5 billion (approximately $5.92 billion) and €6 billion [2] - South Africa's automotive exports reached a record high in 2025, with 414,300 vehicles exported to 109 countries, marking a 5.9% increase from 2024 despite U.S. tariff pressures [2] Group 2 - In January 2026, China's used car market saw a transaction volume of 1.7292 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 18.33%, with a total transaction value of 110.612 billion yuan [2] - The used car transfer rate in January was 35.03%, showing growth both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a total of 605,800 vehicles transferred, up 43.3% from the previous year [2] - The market for passenger and commercial vehicles improved compared to the previous year, with steady growth in basic passenger car transactions and increased demand for SUVs and MPVs [2]

Core Viewpoint - Volkswagen is attracting interest from top private equity firms, including Blackstone, EQT, and CVC, for its Everllence division, which produces marine engines and heat pumps. The estimated valuation for this division is between €5 billion (approximately $5.92 billion) and €6 billion [1][1]. Group 1 - Volkswagen's Everllence division is involved in the production of marine engines and heat pumps [1]. - Potential buyers have valued the Everllence division between €5 billion and €6 billion [1].

Core Insights - Volkswagen has received bids from leading private equity firms such as Blackstone, EQT, and CVC for its Everllence division, indicating strong interest in the asset from major investment players [1] Group 1 - The involvement of top private equity funds suggests a competitive bidding environment for Volkswagen's Everllence division [1] - The Financial Times reported this development, highlighting the significance of the interest from these firms [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted after-tax income per diluted share was $1.96, a 51% increase year-over-year [6] - Underwriting income reached $670 million, an increase of 48% year-over-year [6] - For the full year 2025, adjusted after-tax income per diluted share was $7.09, a 43% increase year-over-year [7] - Total adjusted after-tax income for the year was $4 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year [7] - The full year 2025 combined ratio was 90.1%, an improvement of 170 basis points from 2024 [46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global commercial net premiums written grew 3% year-over-year, totaling $17.4 billion [7] - North America Commercial grew net premiums written by 4%, with Retail Property contracting by 8% [8] - International Commercial net premiums written increased by 3%, primarily driven by Property and Global Specialty [8] - Global Personal net premiums written contracted by 3% due to higher ceded premiums under a reinsurance treaty [8] - New business in Global Commercial grew 9% year-over-year, with International new business up 10% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America casualty lines pricing remained favorable, with increases in the mid-teens for wholesale and excess casualty [10] - Retail property pricing was down 10%, and excess and surplus lines pricing was down 13% for the year [10] - International property pricing was up 3%, while energy pricing was down 10% due to abundant capacity [11] - Overall pricing in North America commercial renewal increased by 6%, excluding property [43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AIG is focused on maintaining disciplined underwriting and capital management while pursuing growth through strategic transactions [12][18] - The company aims to achieve a sub-30% expense ratio by 2027, with a current expense ratio of 31.1% [9][46] - AIG is leveraging GenAI capabilities to enhance underwriting and claims processes, with plans for broader deployment in 2026 [26][30] - The company is positioned for growth through organic initiatives, strategic partnerships, and innovative capital structures [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in AIG's financial strength and liquidity to execute strategic objectives [13] - The company anticipates low- to mid-teens net premiums written growth in General Insurance for 2026 [31] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining underwriting discipline amid competitive market conditions [10][43] - The leadership transition is expected to support AIG's strategic goals and financial guidance [32][33] Other Important Information - AIG returned $6.8 billion in capital to shareholders, including $5.8 billion in share repurchases and $1 billion in dividends [12] - The company achieved a 12.5% increase in quarterly dividends, marking the third consecutive year of significant dividend growth [12] - AIG's investment strategy has shifted towards higher-yielding assets, resulting in a net investment income increase of 8% year-over-year [11][47] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on expense ratio expectations - Management indicated that the expense ratio is expected to be lower in 2026 compared to 2025, with a focus on managing corporate expenses [54][56] Question: Clarification on net premium written growth sources - Management noted that growth comes from various initiatives, including reinsurance benefits and organic growth, but did not provide specific breakdowns [58][60] Question: Additional details on casualty line margins - Management explained that additional margins in casualty lines are a result of conservative loss cost trend assumptions and macro uncertainties [66][68] Question: Breakdown of interest and dividends in investment portfolio - Management highlighted a significant transformation in the investment portfolio, with a focus on reinvesting in higher yields [70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted after-tax income per diluted share was $1.96, a 51% increase year-over-year [6] - Underwriting income reached $670 million, an increase of 48% year-over-year [6] - Full-year adjusted after-tax income per diluted share was $7.09, a 43% increase year-over-year [7] - Global commercial net premiums written were $17.4 billion, an increase of 3% year-over-year [7] - The accident year combined ratio was 88.3%, and the calendar year combined ratio was 90.1%, both showing improvements [10][45] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America Commercial grew net premiums written by 4% or 5% when adjusted for a large closeout transaction, with balanced growth across the portfolio [8] - International Commercial net premiums written increased by 3%, primarily driven by property and global specialty [8] - Global Personal saw a contraction of 3% in net premiums written due to higher ceded premiums [8] - New business in global commercial grew 9% year-over-year, with international new business up 10% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America property pricing was down 10%, and excess and surplus lines pricing was down 13% for the year [10] - International property pricing was up 3%, while energy pricing was down 10% due to abundant capacity [11] - Overall pricing in North America commercial renewal increased by 6%, with casualty pricing remaining favorable [41][42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - AIG is focused on maintaining disciplined underwriting and capital management while pursuing growth through strategic transactions and technology initiatives [12][17] - The company aims to achieve a sub-30% expense ratio by 2027, with significant progress made in reducing the expense ratio [9][35] - AIG is leveraging GenAI capabilities to enhance underwriting processes and improve operational efficiency [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in AIG's financial strength and liquidity to execute strategic objectives and growth ambitions [13] - The company anticipates low- to mid-teens net premiums written growth in General Insurance for 2026, indicating a strong start to the year [30] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining strong relationships with reinsurance partners and achieving favorable renewal terms [14][15] Other Important Information - AIG returned $6.8 billion in capital to shareholders, including $5.8 billion in share repurchases and $1 billion in dividends [12] - The company achieved a significant milestone by delivering greater than $2 billion in underwriting income for the first time since 2008, excluding divested businesses [7] - AIG's investment strategy has shifted towards higher-yielding assets, resulting in a net investment income increase of 8% year-over-year [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the expense ratio outlook - Management indicated that the expense ratio is expected to be lower on a run rate basis in 2026 compared to 2025, with a focus on managing corporate expenses [53][55] Question: Clarification on general insurance net premium growth - Management noted that growth comes from various initiatives, including reinsurance benefits and organic growth, but did not provide specific breakdowns [57][59] Question: Additional details on casualty line margins - Management explained that additional margin in casualty lines is a conservative approach to cover macro uncertainties, not indicative of portfolio deterioration [65][66] Question: Breakdown of interest and dividends in the investment portfolio - Management highlighted a significant transformation in the investment portfolio, with a focus on reinvesting in higher yields [67][68] Question: AI implementation and orchestration layer - Management discussed the progress in AI implementation and the focus on orchestrating multiple agents within the organization for improved efficiency [72][75]

Core Insights - AIG's General Insurance (GI) underwriting income increased by 48% year-over-year to $670 million in Q4 2025, up from $454 million in Q4 2024 [1] - The overall net income for AIG in 2025 was $3.1 billion, a significant recovery from a net loss of $1.4 billion in 2024 [9] Financial Performance - GI adjusted pre-tax income rose by 26% to $1.6 billion in Q4 2025, driven by higher underwriting income and net investment income [3] - For the full year 2025, GI underwriting income increased by 22% to $2.3 billion compared to $1.9 billion in 2024 [7] - Total net investment income for AIG in 2025 was $4.2 billion, down by 1% from $4.3 billion in 2024 [8] Premiums and Ratios - GI gross premiums written (GPW) remained relatively flat with a 1% increase to $8.1 billion for Q4 2025, while net premiums written (NPW) decreased by 1% to $6 billion [2] - The combined ratio for GI improved to 90.1% for the full year 2025, compared to 91.8% in 2024 [7] Strategic Initiatives - AIG returned $6.8 billion of capital to shareholders in 2025, including $5.8 billion in share repurchases and approximately $1.0 billion in dividends [12] - The company announced several strategic partnerships expected to enhance earnings and ROE in 2026, including collaborations with Blackstone and Amwins [12] Outlook - AIG entered 2026 with strong momentum, achieving enhanced terms and favorable pricing in January 1 reinsurance renewal activity [13] - The company is on track to meet or exceed its financial objectives for 2026 [13]