September 17, 2025 08:17 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America TikTok Deal: A Template for China AVs/Humanoids in the US? Following US-China trade talks in Madrid, focusing on TikTok, we wanted to share a high level read-across to the world of EVs, AVs and robotics where China has a widening lead. (President Trump announced an agreement Tuesday but has not provided details. The WSJ report, which provides details regarding a consortium of investors, is unconfirmed.) Our research colleagues in China cited a commen ...

September 16, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Tesla Inc | North America Thoughts at $410: Out of Favor, the Recruiter, New Model Y, Grok in the Car With TSLA shares up around 25% month to date and up nearly 90% since April we wanted to share some thoughts. M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Adam Jonas, CFA Equity Analyst Adam.Jonas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1726 Andrew S Percoco Equity Analyst Andrew.Percoco@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-4322 Daniela M Haigian Equity Analyst Daniela.Haigian@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-60 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of using data to understand corporate revenue distribution and the sensitivity of companies to tariffs, providing a comprehensive view of regional income and potential risks associated with trade policies [3][5]. Group 1: Regional Classification Data - Bloomberg is launching a regional classification fundamental data product to empower investors by providing a detailed view of company revenue by region, utilizing both reported and forecasted data [3]. - The product aims to create a multi-level standardized structure covering various regions and specific countries, offering insights into company revenue distribution [3][5]. Group 2: Sensitivity Scoring - A sensitivity scoring system has been developed to assess companies' exposure to tariff risks based on their revenue distribution across different countries and industries [5][6]. - The top ten companies with the highest tariff sensitivity scores from the Bloomberg U.S. Large Cap Index (B500) have been identified, which helps investors evaluate the potential impact of tariffs on their portfolios [6]. Group 3: Index Comparison - A bottom-up approach is used to compare the sensitivity scores of different indices, revealing that the European index (EMEAP) is most sensitive to current macroeconomic conditions [7][9]. - The analysis provides valuable insights for investors to enhance their risk management capabilities by understanding how different regions and industries are affected by new tariff policies [7]. Group 4: Cost Risk Analysis - The article highlights the importance of considering cost risks alongside revenue risks, particularly in industries like automotive, where tariffs on imported components can significantly impact profit margins [9][10]. - By combining sensitivity scores with supply chain data, investors can gain a deeper understanding of how global trade dynamics affect companies, identifying potential risks and opportunities [9][10]. Group 5: Industry Focus - Automotive - The automotive industry is used as a case study to illustrate how financial data can be leveraged to construct risk/opportunity maps based on profit margins and tariff sensitivity [12][14]. - The analysis of companies like Renault shows that indirect cost risks from suppliers can significantly affect production costs, even if the company itself is not directly impacted by tariff policies [12][15].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Capitalization**: $1,125,763 million as of August 6, 2025 - **Current Stock Price**: $319.91 with a price target of $410.00 [6][16] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Robonomics and AI Integration**: The integration of AI in manufacturing is expected to revolutionize industries, similar to past technological advancements. The economic viability and safety will drive the adoption of AI-enabled machines [2][6]. 2. **Cost Efficiency of Humanoid Robots**: A humanoid robot can perform the work of two humans at a cost of $5/hour, generating a net present value (NPV) of approximately $200,000 per humanoid. This highlights the potential for significant cost savings in labor [2][3]. 3. **Autonomous Vehicle Economics**: The cost per mile for a robot-driven ride-share vehicle could drop to less than $0.20, which is one-tenth of the cost of human-driven services. This could lead to a substantial shift in the ride-sharing market [2][6]. 4. **Future of Space Economy**: The establishment of nuclear power on the moon is anticipated by 2030, with competition among nations. The South Pole of the moon is highlighted as a prime location for future developments due to its resources [8][11]. 5. **The Elon Quotient**: This concept emphasizes the need for a sustainable economy to support human colonization efforts on Mars, suggesting that economic growth and risk management are critical for success [11][12]. Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for fiscal years ending December 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.37, $2.69, and $4.34 respectively [6]. - **Valuation Components**: The price target of $410 is derived from various components including core auto business, network services, mobility, and energy segments [16]. Risks and Considerations 1. **Execution Risks**: Challenges related to factory ramp-ups and competition from legacy OEMs and new entrants in the market [19]. 2. **Market Recognition**: The market may not fully recognize the potential of Dojo-enabled services, which could impact revenue per user (RPU) and attach rates [19]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Specific risks associated with operations in China and potential dilution of shares [19]. Additional Insights - **Technological Adoption**: Historical parallels are drawn between current AI technologies and past innovations, suggesting that public comfort and economic factors will dictate the pace of adoption [2]. - **Lunar Development**: The need for substantial energy resources for lunar colonization is emphasized, indicating a future demand for energy solutions in space [8][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into Tesla's strategic direction, financial outlook, and the broader implications of technological advancements in the automotive and space industries.

Summary of Tesla Inc. 7th Annual Intern Survey Industry Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc - **Industry**: Automotive and Shared Mobility - **Survey Context**: The survey reflects the preferences of approximately 530 Morgan Stanley North American summer interns regarding automotive brands and services Key Findings 1. **Decline in Brand Preference**: Only 5% of interns identified Tesla as their 'most desirable car brand', a significant drop from 11% the previous year and a continued decline from a peak of 30% in 2021 [2][3] 2. **Competitor Rankings**: Mercedes and BMW emerged as the top two preferred brands, with 22% and 16% of responses, respectively, compared to 19% and 16% last year [3] 3. **Powertrain Preferences**: Interns showed a strong preference for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles over electric vehicles (EVs) at a ratio of nearly 2 to 1, with 29% favoring pure ICE and 15% for EVs. Hybrids were the most preferred powertrain at 39% [4] 4. **Robotaxi Service Preference**: Over half of the interns preferred an Uber-developed or Alphabet/Waymo robotaxi service, with only 12% indicating they would choose a Tesla robotaxi, down from 31% last year [5] Investment Insights 1. **Morgan Stanley's Rating**: The firm maintains an Overweight rating on Tesla shares with a price target of $410, supported by the belief in Tesla's capabilities in physical AI, robotics, and energy storage, which are expected to drive growth beyond traditional EV sales [6] 2. **Growth Potential**: Tesla is positioned to leverage its data and manufacturing capabilities to expand into high-margin software and services, with expectations that services will account for 31% of total EBITDA by 2030 [32] 3. **Market Capitalization**: As of July 31, 2025, Tesla's market capitalization was approximately $1,084.8 billion, with a stock price of $308.27 [9] Financial Projections 1. **Earnings Estimates**: Projected EPS for fiscal years ending December 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.37, $2.69, and $4.34, respectively [9] 2. **Revenue Growth**: Total revenue is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of $97.69 billion in 2024 and $141.22 billion by 2027 [38] Risks and Considerations 1. **Competition**: The report highlights the increasing competition from traditional OEMs, startups, and large tech firms, which could impact Tesla's market share and growth [43] 2. **Execution Risks**: Potential risks include challenges in ramping up production at multiple factories and market recognition of Tesla's service opportunities [43] Conclusion - The survey indicates a notable shift in consumer preferences away from Tesla, particularly among younger demographics, which could pose challenges for the brand's future desirability. However, Morgan Stanley's bullish outlook on Tesla's broader capabilities and growth potential in AI and services suggests a complex but potentially rewarding investment landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US Equity Market** and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the **S&P 500** and broader economic indicators affecting equities. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **V-Shaped Recovery in EPS Revisions**: The recent bullish sentiment in the market is attributed to a V-shaped recovery in earnings per share (EPS) revisions breadth, indicating a positive shift in earnings expectations since April 2025 [4][6][10]. 2. **Labor Market Weakness**: A weaker labor report suggests potential consolidation in the market, with the labor data being a lagging indicator that may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider rate cuts if the trend continues [4][9][29]. 3. **Expectations for Fed Actions**: The bond market is pricing an 88% chance of a Fed cut in September, indicating that the market anticipates a dovish shift in monetary policy due to deteriorating labor data [9][29]. 4. **Inflation Concerns**: Tariff-related inflation is expected to impact growth data, which could delay Fed rate cuts, leading to potential corrections in equity markets [4][25][30]. 5. **Bull Market Dynamics**: The current bull market, which is only four months old, is expected to experience pullbacks, particularly in the seasonally weak third quarter [4][26][28]. 6. **Positive 12-Month Outlook**: Despite near-term risks, there is a higher conviction in a bullish 12-month outlook driven by better earnings and cash flow growth, aided by factors such as AI adoption and pent-up demand [5][24][23]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Government Hiring Impact**: Government hiring has masked underlying weaknesses in the private labor market, which may lead to a more significant rise in unemployment and could influence Fed actions [21][27]. 2. **Sector-Specific Risks**: The impact of tariffs is seen as idiosyncratic, affecting consumer goods more than industrials, where companies may have better pricing power [25][30]. 3. **Global Money Supply Trends**: A deceleration in the global money supply rate of change could weigh on risk assets, particularly if the dollar strengthens [33][34]. 4. **Earnings Revisions Breadth**: The sharp rebound in earnings revisions breadth may face challenges in maintaining momentum, which could lead to short-term stock price pressures [34][35]. 5. **AI Adoption Theme**: Companies that are significant adopters of AI are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, with a focus on their materiality to the investment thesis [40][41]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment indicates cautious optimism in the equity markets, with a focus on monitoring labor data and inflation trends as key indicators for future Fed actions and market performance. The potential for a correction exists, but the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural growth drivers.

Summary of Humanoid Robot Consumer and Intern Surveys: China Enthusiasm, US Divided Industry Overview - The report focuses on the humanoid robotics industry, particularly consumer sentiment in the US and China regarding humanoid robots and their potential impact on society. Key Findings Consumer Sentiment - **Survey Scope**: Approximately 4,000 responses were collected, with around 2,000 from the US and 2,060 from China, providing a representative view of societal attitudes towards humanoid robots [2][10]. - **Optimism Gap**: Chinese consumers exhibit significantly more optimism towards humanoid robots compared to US consumers. - In the US, 34% believe humanoids will have many viable use cases, and 32% expect wide-scale adoption within the next 5 years. In contrast, 67% of Chinese respondents believe in viable use cases, and 66% anticipate adoption in the same timeframe [3][10]. - The perception of humanoids having a positive overall impact on society is starkly different: 5% net positive in the US versus 61% in China [3][10]. Influencing Factors - **Media Coverage and Government Support**: The disparity in optimism is attributed to the level of media coverage and government backing in each country. China has seen extensive media coverage and government initiatives promoting humanoid robots, including public events and development plans [4][10]. Demographic Insights - **Intern Survey**: A separate survey of ~530 North American summer interns revealed a more cautious stance on humanoid adoption compared to the general US population, with a notable majority advocating for regulation for consumer protection [12][10]. - **Age and Income Influence**: Younger respondents (16-24 years) in the US showed more optimism than older demographics, while higher-income individuals were generally more positive about humanoid robots' potential and societal impact [24][26][34]. Additional Insights - **Regulation and Job Replacement Concerns**: A significant portion of respondents in both countries expressed the belief that humanoids should be regulated for consumer protection. Concerns about job replacement were more pronounced among US respondents [9][11][34]. - **Interest in In-Home Robots**: Interest in household humanoid robots was notably higher among younger, male, and higher-income respondents in both countries, with Chinese consumers showing a greater inclination towards early adoption [30][38][43]. Conclusion - The survey highlights a clear divide in consumer sentiment towards humanoid robots between the US and China, driven by cultural, media, and governmental influences. The findings suggest potential investment opportunities in the humanoid robotics sector, particularly in markets with strong government support and consumer enthusiasm.

Summary of Tesla Inc Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically Electric Vehicles (EVs) - **Market Cap**: $1,170,279 million as of July 23, 2025 - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: $410.00 Key Financial Highlights - **2Q Results**: Slight beat with Free Cash Flow (FCF) near break-even [1][2] - **Deliveries**: FY25 deliveries forecast lowered to 1.53 million, down 14.2% year-over-year [8] - **Revenue**: FY25 revenue forecast largely unchanged at $63.4 billion [8] - **Auto Gross Margin**: FY25 Auto Gross Margin (ex-ZEV credits) increased to 13.4% [8] - **Operating Margin**: FY25 GAAP Operating Margin decreased to 2.9% [8] - **EPS**: FY25 Non-GAAP diluted EPS decreased to $1.37 from $1.58 previously [8] - **Free Cash Flow**: FY25 forecasted at ~$1 billion, up from a previous burn of ~$250 million [8] Core Insights and Concerns - **Outlook Transparency**: Tesla's outlook lacks specific targets on revenues or margins, raising concerns about future performance [6] - **Robotaxi Progress**: Limited information on the current fleet size or performance, despite ambitious expansion targets [6] - **Optimus Production**: Production ramp for Optimus pushed slightly, with a target of 1 million units annually within 5 years [6] - **Market Headwinds**: Elon Musk indicated that the next few quarters may be 'rough' due to demand changes and regulatory environment [6] - **Consensus Direction**: Likely modestly lower, especially for FY26, with updated FY25 EPS 14% lower than prior forecasts [6] Changes to Estimates - **Deliveries**: FY26 deliveries forecast lowered to 1.85 million from 1.89 million [8] - **Revenue Adjustments**: FY26 revenues slightly lower due to lower deliveries [8] - **Operating Expenses**: Increased R&D and SG&A expenses impacting margins [8] - **Free Cash Flow**: FY26 forecast lowered to $2.4 billion from $5.3 billion [8] Valuation and Price Target Methodology - **Price Target Components**: - Core Tesla Auto business valued at $76/share - Network Services at $159/share - Tesla Mobility at $90/share - Energy at $68/share - Third-party supplier at $17/share [19][24] Investment Thesis - **Growth Potential**: Tesla's capabilities in physical AI, robotics, and energy storage present significant growth opportunities beyond traditional EV business [12][13] - **Market Position**: Tesla is well-positioned in data, robotics, and manufacturing, with a strong competitive edge [12][13] - **Risk Factors**: Potential risks include competition from traditional OEMs and execution risks related to factory ramps and market recognition of service opportunities [36] Additional Insights - **Analyst Sentiment**: The consensus rating distribution shows 44% Overweight, 37% Equal-weight, and 19% Underweight [27] - **Long-term Projections**: Forecasts suggest Tesla could sell 4.6 million units by 2030 with a 25% revenue CAGR [26] This summary encapsulates the key points from Tesla Inc's earnings call, highlighting financial performance, strategic insights, and market outlook.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Car Culture Shift**: There is a notable decline in interest among younger generations towards cars, as evidenced by a 67% drop in attendance at the North American Auto Show from its peak in 2003, which had 838,000 attendees, to 275,000 attendees in the current year [4][5][5] 2. **Talent Acquisition Challenges**: As the automotive industry transitions towards AI-driven vehicles, legacy automakers face challenges in attracting top talent due to competitive offers from tech firms, which can reach multi-hundred-million-dollar contracts [1][4][5] 3. **Government Involvement**: The U.S. government is increasingly involved in the automotive sector, particularly in securing critical materials and rare earths, as seen in a recent partnership with MP Materials, which includes a 10-year price floor for NdPr and a 15% ownership stake [4][5][5] 4. **Tesla's Unique Approach**: Tesla continues to focus on a camera-only approach for its robotaxi fleet, which contrasts with the sensor fusion methods (camera, radar, LiDAR) used by competitors. This strategy is seen as a way to accelerate learning and improvement in autonomous driving technology [5][7][7] 5. **AI Day Anticipation**: The company is expected to host an 'AI Day' soon, primarily to attract talent in the competitive AI and robotics landscape [4][5][5] Financial Metrics and Projections 1. **Stock Rating**: Morgan Stanley rates Tesla as "Overweight" with a price target of $410.00, while the stock closed at $319.41 on July 17, 2025 [2][2][2] 2. **Market Capitalization**: Tesla's current market cap is approximately $1,124,643 million [2][2][2] 3. **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates**: EPS projections are as follows: - FY 2024: $2.41 - FY 2025: $1.58 (estimated) - FY 2026: $2.88 (estimated) - FY 2027: $4.46 (estimated) [2][2][2] Additional Important Insights 1. **Long-term Valuation Components**: The price target of $410 is derived from various components, including $75/share for the core auto business, $160 for network services, $90 for Tesla Mobility, $67 for energy, and $17 for third-party supply [10][10][10] 2. **Risks Identified**: Potential risks include increased competition from legacy OEMs and tech companies, execution risks related to factory ramp-ups, and geopolitical risks, particularly concerning China [13][13][13] 3. **Cultural Shift in Engineering Inspiration**: The decline in car culture raises concerns about future inspiration for engineers, as fewer young people are motivated by automobiles compared to previous generations [4][4][4] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Tesla's strategic positioning, market challenges, and financial outlook.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tesla Inc is Overweight, with a price target of $410.00, while the industry view is In-Line [5][74]. Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for Tesla to develop new AI-enabled devices that enhance the connection between digital life and automotive experiences, suggesting that the automobile's role in the mobile/hybrid compute market is underestimated [2][3]. - The concept of "Robo-DoF" is introduced, indicating that as AI integrates into physical forms, the demand for actuators and components will significantly increase, with projections of over 60 billion points of actuation across various robot types [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving landscape of humanoid robots and their components, encouraging clients to explore their own models for market growth [7]. Summary by Sections Tesla Inc Overview - Tesla Inc's current market capitalization is approximately $1,133,938 million, with a recent stock price of $322.05 [5]. - The projected EPS for the fiscal years ending in 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.41, $1.59, $2.90, and $4.53 respectively [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the anticipated growth in the robotics market, driven by the proliferation of various types of robots, which will require a vast array of components such as electric motors and encoders [3][7]. - The potential for Tesla to act as a third-party supplier is valued at $17 per share, indicating a diversified revenue stream beyond automotive sales [14]. Humanoid Robotics - The report includes an updated list of stocks related to humanoid robotics and their components, suggesting a significant market opportunity in this sector [11][7]. - The analysis encourages clients to engage with the evolving relationship between automotive companies and humanoid robotics, indicating a growing intersection of these industries [7].