Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed maintained the interest rate but kept the possibility of a rate cut. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and China and the US held talks. China introduced a package of financial policies, and exports in April showed strong resilience, improving market risk appetite [3][9]. - Fundamentally, mines are steadily ramping up production, and processing fees at home and abroad have increased month - on - month. However, as zinc prices have fallen, mines are less willing to offer concessions, and the increase in processing fees has slowed. In May, smelters are both reducing and resuming production, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain flat month - on - month. The import window for zinc ingots has gradually opened since late April, and some imported goods have flowed in recently, keeping the supply pressure at a relatively high level [4][9]. - On the demand side, after the holiday, enterprises resumed work, and the operating rates of various primary sectors increased to varying degrees. High - voltage orders supported the tower orders, but galvanized pipe enterprises planned to cut production due to price competition. Electronic alloy orders were good, while traditional hardware accessory orders were poor, and some alloy terminal export orders decreased recently. Orders for rubber - grade and feed - grade zinc oxide decreased, while ceramic - grade orders were stable [4][9]. - Overall, the China - US trade negotiations and the release of domestic favorable policies have restored market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, there is an expectation of marginal weakening. The high output of refined zinc and the supplement of imported zinc ingots keep the supply pressure high. As the peak season is coming to an end, the enthusiasm for purchasing and restocking has weakened, and the support of the low - inventory logic has been weakened. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly to find support [4][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From April 30th to May 9th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,440 yuan/ton to 22,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,588 dollars/ton to 2,636 dollars/ton, an increase of 48 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.67 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.26; the SHFE inventory decreased from 48,477 tons to 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 173,900 tons to 170,650 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons; the social inventory increased from 7.7 million tons to 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons; the spot premium increased from 160 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 340 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, continued to fluctuate weakly, closing at 22,190 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.11%. LME zinc fluctuated sideways, closing at 2,655.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.55% [6]. - In the spot market, by May 9th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 - 22,955 yuan/ton, with a premium of 580 - 590 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract. In the second half of the week, the inflow of imported zinc ingots improved market arrivals, but downstream purchases were average, and traders gradually lowered the premium quotes, resulting in weak spot trading [6]. - In terms of inventory, by May 9th, the LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,250 tons; the SHFE inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from last week. By May 8th, the social inventory was 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons from April 30th and a decrease of 0.08 million tons from May 6th [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased. Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant during his visit to Switzerland. The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement. China's three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates. China's inflation remained low in April, with CPI at - 0.1% year - on - year and PPI at - 2.7% year - on - year. Exports maintained resilience, with an 8.1% growth rate in April [7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 9th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,500 yuan/metal ton and 40 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/metal ton for domestic and no change for foreign [10]. - A galvanizing plant in the north recently put into operation a new 150,000 - ton galvanizing production line, with a total designed capacity of 500,000 tons, expected to be fully put into production in 2027 [10]. - Lundin Mining's Neves - Corvo mine produced about 27,700 tons of zinc concentrate and about 2,000 tons of lead concentrate in the first quarter, up 4.5% and 24% year - on - year respectively; Zinkgruvan produced about 21,300 tons of zinc concentrate and about 7,600 tons of lead concentrate, up 10.7% and 12.4% year - on - year respectively. These two mines were officially acquired by Swedish mining company Boliden on April 16th this year [10]. - Teck is considering shifting the products of its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska from the Chinese market to other regions to avoid tariff risks. The mine's output accounts for about 5% of the global zinc supply and 2.5% of lead, and currently more than 20% of its zinc concentrate is sold to China [11]. - Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q1 2025 was 213,600 tons, 4% higher than in Q1 2024, and its self - owned zinc production guidance for 2025 is 930,000 - 990,000 tons [11]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in Q1 2025 totaled 57,400 tons, a 10% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14% increase year - on - year. Its zinc concentrate production guidance for 2025 is 250,000 - 255,000 tons [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory situations, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, boosting market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and various economic data [2]. - The prices of most commodities showed different trends of fluctuations. Precious metals prices continued to adjust, copper prices were strongly volatile, aluminum prices were weakly volatile, and the prices of other commodities also changed according to their respective fundamentals [3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, with the US retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel - aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. Trump encouraged stock - buying, leading to a rebound in US stocks and cryptocurrencies, the US dollar index stabilizing above 100, the US bond yield rising to 4.37%, and the gold price falling by over 1%. Oil and copper prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced trading volume, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to 1.32 trillion. The ChiNext and small - cap stocks performed well, and sectors such as military and optical modules led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the decline since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. In the bond market, after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the money market became looser, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Attention should be paid to April's foreign trade, financial, and price data [2]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.40% to $3310 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures edged down 0.57% to $32.6 per ounce. The trade agreement between the US and the UK reduced the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. If the Sino - US trade talks reach an agreement, the gold price may face further downward pressure [3]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper soared overnight. The spot market trading was light, and the LME inventory decreased to 194,000 tons. The first - quarter copper production of First Quantum decreased by 10.7% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum closed at 19,510 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. LME aluminum rose 0.17%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 9,000 tons. The market sentiment was relieved by the US - UK trade agreement. The aluminum price is expected to remain weakly volatile due to consumption concerns [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract rose 3.25% to 2794 yuan per ton. Negative news about new capacity led to a small rebound in alumina prices, but the sustainability and height of the rebound are expected to be limited [9]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, and LME zinc closed up. Recently, imported zinc ingots have flowed in, and with the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the zinc price is under pressure, and short positions can be held against the 10 - day moving average [10][11]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead fluctuated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow - range fluctuation. The social inventory increased. Some lead smelters plan to conduct maintenance, and the supply reduction provides support. The lead price is expected to move sideways in the short term [12][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin first rose and then declined, and LME tin had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve slightly, and the consumption is stable. The tin price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon main contract trended downwards. The supply side has limited expansion power, and the demand side is weak. The social inventory remains at 600,000 tons, and the industrial silicon price is expected to continue to decline in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated widely, and the spot price fell. The short - selling sentiment subsided after the price failed to break through. The downstream purchasing is weak, and the basis correction risk has materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - level still has tariff risks, and the downstream replenishment willingness is weak after the holiday. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil trended strongly. The false news of Kazakhstan's production cut and geopolitical conflicts co - existed. The long - term downward pressure on oil prices comes from OPEC +'s continuous large - scale production increase. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures declined. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The steel price is expected to weaken due to weak supply and demand [22][23]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Downstream steel mills cut production, and the supply is relatively loose. The iron ore price is expected to trend weakly [24]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract declined. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the soybean harvest forecast. The double - meal prices are expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 09 contract declined. The BIMP - EAGA Commercial Committee plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil. The palm oil price is expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [26][27].