1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and analysis of various commodities on November 18, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend and influencing factors [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have declined. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have fallen. The trend strength is neutral [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It has shown a slight decline. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have different trends. The trend strength is neutral [2][12]. - **Lead**: The significant increase in overseas inventories has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have decreased. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][16]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have declined. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: There is pressure above. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Alumina**: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has broken through the support level and is under pressure to fluctuate. The prices of domestic and international nickel futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but there is limited downside. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market sentiment is positive, and it is relatively strong in the short term. The prices of domestic carbonate lithium futures have increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is strong support at the bottom. The price of domestic industrial silicon futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the market information from the meeting. The price of domestic polysilicon futures has decreased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][36]. - **Iron Ore**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic iron ore futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][39]. - **Rebar**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic rebar futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic hot - rolled coil futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The main production areas continue to reduce production, and it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic silicon ferrosilicon futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic manganese silicide futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][49]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coke futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coking coal futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. Others - **Log**: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic log futures has remained stable. The trend strength is neutral [2][55]. - **Rubber**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic rubber futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is support during the shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Asphalt**: The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and it is in a narrow - range shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LLDPE**: The agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PP**: Do not chase short positions in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Pulp**: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic pulp futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak operation. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Urea**: There is support during the short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **LPG**: The downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Propylene**: The demand expectation has improved, and it is in a short - term strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - **Fuel Oil**: It maintains a weak shock and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has increased, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has continued to widen. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the opening guidance. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Bottle Chip**: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is in a low - level shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Pure Benzene**: The overseas blending oil market has started, and it is mainly in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors have been fully digested, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean price is stable, and soybean oil is in a strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is strong, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Soybean**: It may follow the rebound of the soybean market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Corn**: It is fluctuating. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the trading volume of new sugar. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Egg**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse - spread pattern. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers short - and medium - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. The overall market shows a mix of trends such as wide - range oscillations, short - term rebounds, and long - term weakness [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: After hitting a new high, it declined. The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations, and the trend strength is neutral [7][8]. - Silver: Undergoes oscillatory adjustment, with a neutral trend strength [2][7]. Base Metals - Copper: Fed rate cuts limit price drops. Peru's copper production increased in July, and some mines faced issues like worker entrapment and production halts. The trend strength is neutral [13][15]. - Zinc: In oscillatory consolidation, with a neutral trend strength [16]. - Lead: Decreasing inventory supports price oscillations, with a neutral trend strength [19]. - Tin: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a neutral trend strength [22][26]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern. Alumina rebounds from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. All have a neutral trend strength [27][28]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to news - related risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate due to the game between short - and long - term logics. Both have a neutral trend strength [29][35]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: With strong energy - storage demand, it runs in an oscillatory manner, with a neutral trend strength [36][38]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. Polysilicon's spot price rises slightly. Industrial silicon has a neutral trend strength, and polysilicon has a slightly positive trend strength [39][42]. - Iron Ore: Expectations fluctuate, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [43]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both oscillate in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [45][48]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Boosted by macro - sentiment, they oscillate strongly, with a positive trend strength [50][52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations fluctuate, and they oscillate in a wide range, with a neutral trend strength [53][54]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [56][59]. - Paraxylene and PTA: Short - term rebound, but medium - term weakness. MEG conducts a 1 - 5 month - spread reverse arbitrage [60]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is no obvious driving force for upward or downward movement, and it is mainly operated within a range. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, it undergoes a correction. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the capital side, it deviates from the fundamentals. - Corn: Runs in an oscillatory manner. - Sugar: Oscillates downward. - Cotton: The market focuses on the listing of new cotton. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is over, and inventory remains high. - Live Pigs: Policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of the spot market remains unchanged. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5][68][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report This report provides trend forecasts and analysis of fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It also presents macro and industry news and calculates the trend strength of each commodity. The overall view is that most commodities will show a trend of range - bound or volatile fluctuations, and some commodities will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relations, macro - economic policies, and international news [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to have a downward revision of non - farm employment, with a trend strength of 0, and prices may be affected by the Fed's interest rate decision [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Before the Fed's decision, prices will be cautious, with a trend strength of 0. The industry has major events such as mergers and production changes [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will have a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Lacks obvious driving forces, and prices will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will experience range - bound fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Will have a range - bound shock; Alumina will grind the bottom in a shock; Casting aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel will have a game between long - and short - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Will fluctuate, and the increase in supply restricts the upward space, with a trend strength of 0 [2][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices; Polysilicon requires attention to market information, with a trend strength of 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [2][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of - 1 [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment is back, and both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of 0 [2][55][56]. - **Log**: Will fluctuate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. Others - **LPG**: Will have a short - term narrow - range and relatively strong shock [2][50]. - **Propylene**: Will operate weakly at a high level in the short term [2][50]. - **PVC**: Will have a wide - range shock [2][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: Will rebound following crude oil and have a short - term adjustment trend; Low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market will rise slightly [2][54]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The contract in October will operate under pressure; Contracts in December and February will have a wide - range shock [2][55]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weak trend [2][58]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Will fluctuate at a low level [2][59]. - **Pure Benzene**: Will fluctuate in the short term and be weak in the fourth quarter [2][61]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, boosted by macro - factors; Soybean oil: US soybeans continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by optimistic trade sentiment, will fluctuate at a low level; Soybean: Will fluctuate [2][64]. - **Corn**: Will fluctuate [2][66]. - **Sugar**: Has a weak basis [2][67]. - **Cotton**: The market focuses on the situation of new cotton listing [2][68]. - **Egg**: The peak season for spot goods is coming to an end, and inventory is still high [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: The policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of spot goods is hard to change [2][71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading outlooks for various commodities, such as "Breakout upward" for aluminum, "Weak operation" for alumina, and "Range - bound oscillation" for zinc [13]. 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Data**: China's August social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, with a 590 - billion - yuan increase in RMB loans. The M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low, indicating improved capital activation. Corporate financing demand showed marginal improvement, while consumer spending willingness remained weak [7]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy. Supply pressure is emerging, and polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [8][9]. - **Lead**: Short - term supply of lead concentrate is tight, and demand has marginally improved, supporting prices. Existing long positions can be held, and new long positions should wait for better entry points [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to see a downward revision of non - farm employment, and silver is predicted to break out upward. Gold's trend strength is 0, and silver's is also 0 [13][17][21]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Driven by macro sentiment, copper prices are rising. Trend strength is 1 [13][23][25]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][26][27]. - **Lead**: Demand has marginally improved, leading to price increases. Trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - **Tin**: Tin is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][32][35]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to break out upward, alumina to operate weakly, and casting aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum. Trend strengths for all are 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to news risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][39][45]. Energy and Chemicals - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [13][8][9]. - **LPG**: It is expected to have a short - term narrow - range and strong - biased oscillation [13][16]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to operate weakly at a high level in the short term [13][16]. Other Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are under pressure. Trend strength is - 1 [13][46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For polysilicon, market information changes should be monitored. Trend strengths are - 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon [13][49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: It is in an oscillating and repeated pattern. Trend strength is 0 [13][53][54]. - **Steel Products**: For rebar and hot - rolled coil, demand needs verification, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][57][59]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][60][62]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][63][65]. - **Logs**: They are in an oscillating and repeated pattern [13][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows strong growth as the US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly reached a three - year high, but it may also affect the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm due to inflation concerns [7]. - For the soybean sector, the rise in US soybean prices is driven by a Reuters report and a market rumor. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic and move with US soybean prices [8][10]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to oscillate and correct after the macro - sentiment cools down, as the driving force for the previous rise has weakened [11]. - The copper market lacks a clear driver, with a narrowing price range, but the downside support is relatively clear. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. - The PTA market has a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Indicators - The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, the highest since May 2022, with the output and backlog of orders reaching highs since mid - 2022, and new orders reaching the highest since February 2024. The services PMI initial value was 55.4, a two - month low, and the composite PMI initial value was 55.4, a nine - month high [7]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analyses 3.2.1 Beans - Reuters reported that the Trump administration is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemption applications on Friday, and a supplementary rule on large refineries may be released next week. A market rumor said that China plans to buy US soybeans, driving up US soybean prices. Domestic oil and meal prices are expected to follow the cost logic [8][10]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous rise was due to the expected supply contraction of coking coal under anti - involution policies. Recently, the driving force has weakened as the policy window has passed, the macro - sentiment has cooled, the exchange has restricted positions and increased handling fees, and the actual supply remains high with weakening fundamentals. Coke's seventh price increase is expected to be implemented today, but steel mills' acceptance of price increases is decreasing [11]. 3.2.3 Copper - Macroscopically, the market is waiting for Fed Chairman Powell's speech and interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, overseas smelters are reducing production due to raw - material shortages and losses. The tight supply of recycled copper may also affect production. The domestic consumption season is approaching, and inventories are low. A bullish mindset remains in trading, and an attempt to buy volatility in options can be considered [13]. 3.2.4 PTA - The unexpected shutdown of the Hengli Huizhou PTA plant is expected to cause significant inventory reduction in August - September. The polyester device's operating rate has increased, and the PTA supply - demand relationship will turn to a tight balance. Attention should be paid to the 9 - 1/10 - 1 positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Other Commodity Trends - Gold is in high - level oscillation, and silver has a slight decline [19]. - Zinc is in a weak oscillation, and lead's price is supported by inventory reduction [19][33][36]. - Tin is in range - bound oscillation, and aluminum is in a range - bound state, with alumina slightly falling and cast aluminum alloy following electrolytic aluminum [19][40][43]. - Nickel is in low - level oscillation, and stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between expectations and reality [19][46][47]. - Lithium carbonate's weekly inventory is decreasing again, and it is in range - bound oscillation [19][53]. - Industrial silicon is affected by market news, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to this week's meeting information [19][57]. - Iron ore still has support as the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined [19][61]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in wide - range oscillations [19][64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in wide - range oscillations [19][69]. - Coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations [19][72]. - Logs are in repeated oscillations [75].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have jointly drafted the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)" to address "involution - style" competition, with clear definitions of dumping, expanded scope, and new regulations on data - related price behavior [8]. - For the black sector, in the short - term (1 - 3 weeks), steel is in high - level oscillation, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong; in the medium - term (1 - 3 months), black commodities face correction pressure; in the long - term (1 - 3 quarters), the center of black commodities will rise again [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. "Today's Discovery" - The revised "Price Law" aims to address "involution - style" competition, with clearer rules on low - price dumping, expanded scope to include services, and new regulations on operators' use of data and algorithms [8]. 2. "Recommended by the Director" - **Black Sector**: - Short - term: Steel oscillates at a high level, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong. The logic is that coking coal supply has a production - cut expectation, policy stimulus is continuous, and there is a shortage of spot liquidity. Steel mills have a demand to replenish coking coal inventory. Iron ore supply is gradually increasing, and its price is over - valued [9][10]. - Medium - term: Black commodities face correction pressure due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" policy and high valuations, along with increased supply and potential spot liquidity surpluses [10]. - Long - term: The center of black commodities will rise as real estate destocking and new construction stabilize, and global manufacturing inventory replenishment boosts demand [10]. - Strategies: Gradually take profit on the 10 - 01 reverse spread of steel; hold the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore; pay attention to opportunities to narrow the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. 3. "Commodity Research Morning Report" - **Precious Metals**: Gold oscillates downward, and silver breaks through and rises. Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [14][19][21]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper lacks a clear driver and oscillates. Copper trend intensity is 0 [14][23][25]. - Zinc's price weakens. Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14][26][28]. - Lead's price rebound is restricted by high domestic inventory. Lead trend intensity is 0 [14][29][30]. - Tin's price is affected by floods in Wa State. Tin trend intensity is - 1 [14][32][35]. - Aluminum oscillates in the short - term, alumina's price strengthens, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [14][37][39]. - Nickel is boosted by macro - sentiment but restricted by reality; stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin and determined by fundamentals in terms of elasticity. Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [14][40][44]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate lithium may be strong in the short - term due to increased supply - side disturbances. Carbonate lithium trend intensity is 1 [14][45][47]. - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market is resilient; polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances. Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [14][49][51]. - Iron ore is supported by macro - expectations and oscillates strongly. Iron ore trend intensity is 1 [14][52][53]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil oscillate widely. Rebar and hot - rolled coil trend intensities are both 0 [14][55][58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillate widely due to rising overseas ore quotes. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese trend intensities are both 0 [14][59][61]. - Coke's third - round price increase is implemented, and it oscillates strongly; coking coal is also strong due to supply - policy constraints. Coke and coking coal trend intensities are both 1 [14][63][65]. - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [14][67][70]. - Logs oscillate repeatedly [71].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report presents the price trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 23, 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, providing support for the price, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10][12]. - **Zinc**: Expected to have small - scale sideways movements, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13][14]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to move sideways within a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina is expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: Macro - economic sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is mainly influenced by macro - economic sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The commodity sentiment is positive, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][31][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of reaching the daily limit; the trend strength is 2. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are getting stronger, and the price is unlikely to fall, with a trend strength of 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - economic sentiment, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Driven by the macro - economic market, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Coking coal is restricted by supply - policy expectations, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][54][57]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Palm Oil**: Boosted by macro - economic factors, but caution should be exercised regarding sentiment reversal. - **Soybean Oil**: Follows the trend of the oilseed sector but is relatively weak among varieties. - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is strong, and the price is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Soybean No. 1**: Technically, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - **Corn**: Expected to move sideways. - **Sugar**: Expected to have narrow - range consolidation. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. - **Egg**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling hens decreases. - **Live Pig**: Macro - economic sentiment is strong, waiting for verification at the end of the month. - **Peanut**: Expected to move sideways [4]. Others - **Log**: Expected to have repeated sideways movements [2][58].

Group 1 - Indonesia is negotiating with the United States for a waiver on a 19% tariff on palm oil, cocoa, and nickel [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The reinstatement of Trump's tariff policy exposes the hidden concerns of the US economic governance coordination, and is not good news for the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange assets [5]. - Glass is currently weak in the short - term, and the key lies in the weak demand and continuous pressure of warehouse receipt pricing. Future improvement depends on the recovery of glass demand [6][7]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are supported by the peak demand season. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil may continue to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil [8]. - The shipment of asphalt is slowing down, and it is weak in the near - end. The main contradiction lies in the demand, especially in the South due to the approaching rainy season [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a state of oscillating decline, and silver follows the downward trend. The trend intensities of both are 0 [14][18][22]. 3.1.2 Copper - The decrease in copper inventory supports its price, and the trend intensity is 0. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus [24][26]. 3.1.3 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is in range - bound oscillation, and alumina is significantly supported by costs. The trend intensities of both are 0 [27][29]. 3.1.4 Zinc - Zinc faces pressure above, and the trend intensity is 0 [30][31]. 3.1.5 Lead - Lead is in range - bound oscillation, and the trend intensity is 0 [33][34]. 3.1.6 Tin - Tin breaks below the oscillation range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [36][39]. 3.1.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel is supported by short - term costs, but weak expectations limit its elasticity. Stainless steel has an increasing marginal reduction in production due to negative feedback and is difficult to fall deeply. The trend intensities of both are 0 [40][41][46]. 3.1.8 Carbonate Lithium - The de - stocking speed of carbonate lithium is slow, and its trend may remain weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [48][50]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon hits a new low on the disk, and polysilicon has amplified fluctuations. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [14][51][53]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Iron Ore - The downstream demand for iron ore has reached a phased peak, and it is in a weak oscillation. The trend intensity is - 1 [54]. 3.3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation with negative feedback expectations leading. The trend intensities of both are 0 [57][58][60]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a weak oscillation. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [62][65]. 3.3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke has completed the second round of price cuts and is in bottom - bound oscillation. Coking coal is also in bottom - bound oscillation. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [66][68]. 3.3.5 Thermal Coal - The inventory of thermal coal mines is increasing, and it is in a weak oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [69][71]. 3.4 Others 3.4.1 Logs - Logs are in repeated oscillations [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates were both cut by 10 basis points, in line with market expectations. A new round of deposit rate cuts may drive more funds into the stock market, bond market, and wealth management products, bringing new liquidity to the capital market. The decline in LPR is expected to boost residents' housing consumption and is more significant for the stock market from the perspective of investment yield and wealth effect [7]. - The precious metals sector rebounded significantly last night, with gold rising nearly 2%. Due to factors such as the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April, gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Since May, the stock index futures market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is mainly driven by policy easing and lower interest rates, but the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur [10][11]. - The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation. With the approaching of the rainy season in Southwest China and the expected resumption of production in Northwest China, supply may increase, while demand remains weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Last night, the precious metals sector rebounded strongly, with gold rising nearly 2%. The reasons for the rebound include the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April. Gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Gold trend strength is 1, and silver trend strength is 1 [22]. Stock Index Futures - Since May, the market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is driven by policy easing and lower interest rates. However, the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur. Overall, the market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, but short - term disturbances from the real economy should be noted [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - The fundamental situation is weak. Supply is expected to increase as silicon plants in Southwest and Northwest China may resume production, while demand remains weak, mainly for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Industrial silicon trend strength is - 1 [50]. Copper - Copper inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the price. Macro - news includes Japan's consideration of accepting US tariff cuts and the progress of the India - US trade agreement. Micro - news includes the cooperation between Codelco and Rio Tinto and the clearance of scrap copper in the US. China's refined copper production in April 2025 increased year - on - year [24][26]. - Copper trend strength is 1 [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, and alumina is expected to trade in a range. An alumina plant in Shanxi postponed its maintenance, and China's alumina exports in April 2025 increased year - on - year while imports decreased [27][29]. - Aluminum trend strength is 0, and alumina trend strength is 0 [29]. Zinc - Zinc is in a range - adjustment phase. High - profile news includes the prediction of the EU - US negotiation by Goldman Sachs and the progress of the India - US and Japan - US trade agreements [30][31]. - Zinc trend strength is 0 [31]. Lead - Lead is expected to trade in a range. Similar to zinc, high - profile news includes international trade - related news [33]. - Lead trend strength is 0 [33]. Tin - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation. Macro and industry news includes multiple international events such as the potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel [35][37]. - Tin trend strength is - 1 [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, the contradiction in nickel ore provides support, but the economic viability of conversion may limit the upside potential. For stainless steel, the cost bottom is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement. Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products, and there are also news about production and trade in the nickel industry [39][40][43]. - Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless steel trend strength is 0 [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the trading situation at the mine end. The prices of lithium carbonate and related raw materials are declining, and China's imports of lithium - related products in April 2025 showed different trends [45][47]. - Lithium carbonate trend strength is - 1 [47]. Iron Ore - Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the driving force for price increases is slowing down. The LPR rate cut on May 20 is the latest macro - news [51][52]. - Iron ore trend strength is - 1 [52]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation. News includes South Korea's anti - dumping tax on stainless steel plates and China's steel production data in April 2025 [54][57]. - Rebar trend strength is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [57][58]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the resonance of the black - metal sector, and silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate weakly as Australian manganese ore shipments resume. There is a lot of news about the spot prices, production, and trade of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [59][62]. - Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0, and silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [63]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a bottom - oscillation phase. There is information about their spot prices, basis, and position changes [64][66]. - Coke trend strength is 0, and coking coal trend strength is 0 [67]. Steam Coal - Steam coal is expected to oscillate weakly as coal mine inventories increase. There is information about its spot prices and position changes [68][69]. - Steam coal trend strength is 0 [70]. Logs - Logs are in a weak oscillation. No specific analysis details are provided [71].