Core Viewpoint - The bullish perspective on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is supported by its strong stock performance compared to the S&P 500, indicating a positive investment outlook [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on generating alpha by analyzing various sectors with perceived potential against the S&P 500, with typical holding periods ranging from a few quarters to multiple years [1]. - Comprehensive spreadsheets are maintained to track historical financial data, key metrics, guidance trends, and valuation comparisons with peers, which aids in informed decision-making [1]. Group 2: Research Methodology - The research methodology emphasizes assessing a company's historical performance and outlook on five key drivers of DCF valuation: revenues, costs and margins, cash flow conversion, capital expenditures, and interest rates, rather than projecting long-term financials [1]. - The analysis includes monitoring industry news, reports, and other analysts' coverage, especially during significant events like CEO changes, to understand leadership impact [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment potential of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), emphasizing that it may still be a good time to invest in the company despite previous analyses [1]. Group 1 - TSMC is highlighted as a key player in the semiconductor industry, with a focus on its ability to provide actionable investment ideas [1]. - The company has been noted for its performance in helping investors outperform the S&P 500 and avoid significant losses during market volatility [2].

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM ) recently reported relatively decent numbers for its second quarter, with accelerating revenue growth and vastly improved profitability, as well as upped full-year guidance. I think these numbers deserved a bigger pop than what we saw, but a win isMSc in Finance. Long-term horizon investor mostly with 5-10 year horizon. I like to keep investing simple. I believe a portfolio should consist of a mix of growth, value, and dividend-paying stocks but usually end up ...

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence, is driving significant returns in the stock market, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) positioned to benefit from this trend [1]. Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is currently trading at $234.47, with a 52-week range of $133.57 to $248.28 and a dividend yield of 1.11% [2]. - The company has a P/E ratio of 26.74 and a price target of $258.33, indicating potential upside for investors [2][11]. Financial Performance - TSM reported a net revenue growth of 44% year-over-year, demonstrating resilience despite macroeconomic challenges [4][5]. - A significant portion of TSM's revenue, up to 74%, is derived from 7nm and below wafers used in AI chip development, highlighting its competitive advantage [6][7]. - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 57.5% and net income growth of 60.7% over the past year [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - TSM's earnings per share (EPS) are driving stock performance, with shares trading at 96% of their 52-week high, suggesting potential for new all-time highs [8]. - Management has raised guidance for future quarters, reflecting confidence in continued demand from major clients like NVIDIA and Apple [9]. - The stock forecast indicates a 12-month price target of $258.33, representing a 9.95% upside, with some analysts projecting a high of $270.00 [11]. Investor Sentiment - Recent data shows a 22.2% reduction in TSM's short interest, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards bullishness [10]. - Institutional investors are increasing their holdings, with Ninety One UK Ltd boosting its position by 1.2%, bringing its total to $454.3 million [12][13]. - The overall market sentiment suggests that TSM is likely to continue benefiting from the AI boom, leading to better earnings and increased institutional buying pressure [14].

Learn more He tends to avoid overhyped and overvalued stocks while capitalizing on battered stocks with significant upside recovery possibilities. He runs the investing group Ultimate Growth Investing which specializes in identifying high-potential opportunities across various sectors. He focuses on ideas that has strong growth potential and well-beaten contrarian plays, with an 18 to 24 month outlook for the thesis to play out. The group is designed for investors seeking to capitalize on growth stocks with ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11]. Core Insights - The company has raised its revenue guidance for 2025, indicating potential for further upward revisions in the future [3][10]. - The Q2 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of NT$9,337.9 billion (US$300.7 billion), a QoQ increase of 11.3% and YoY increase of 38.6% [5][10]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of approximately 30% for 2025, up from a previous mid-20% estimate [7][10]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was reported at 58.6%, slightly lower QoQ but higher YoY, indicating strong demand for advanced process nodes [7][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2025 revenue breakdown: 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm processes accounted for 14%, 36%, and 24% of wafer revenue, respectively, with advanced processes (7nm and below) making up 74% of total wafer revenue [7][10]. - The diluted EPS for Q2 2025 was NT$15.36, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate [7][10]. - The company anticipates Q3 2025 revenue between US$318 billion and US$330 billion, which is above market expectations [7][10]. Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are NT$36,862 billion, NT$42,199 billion, and NT$52,677 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of NT$15,676 billion, NT$17,505 billion, and NT$21,946 billion [9][10]. - The diluted EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are NT$60.46, NT$67.51, and NT$84.64, respectively [9][10]. - The report assigns a target price of NT$1,350.33 based on a 20x PE for the 2026 EPS [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Semiconductor Industry in China - **Key Players**: NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC, Samsung, Huawei, SMIC, Chinese Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Export Restrictions Lifted**: The lifting of US export restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chips to China is a significant development, facilitating faster development of consumer and enterprise AI applications in China [1][2][3] 2. **China's AI Capex Projections**: Major Chinese CSPs are projected to have a capital expenditure (capex) of Rmb380 billion in 2025, closely aligning with NVIDIA's estimated US$50 billion revenue opportunity for AI accelerators in the same year [3][4][38] 3. **Impact on US Semiconductor Companies**: US companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom are expected to receive licenses to ship to China, which is a positive indicator for their stock performance in 2026 [4][42] 4. **TSMC's Growth Potential**: TSMC is expected to meet or exceed its target of a 45% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI semiconductor revenue over the next five years due to the resumption of H20 shipments [5][33] 5. **Samsung's Recovery**: Samsung is positioned to recover from a W1.5 trillion write-off in preliminary earnings due to the previous H20 shipment ban, benefiting from the resumption of H20 shipments [5][33] 6. **Chinese GPU Market Dynamics**: The resumption of H20 shipments may negatively impact local GPU makers like SMIC, as domestic vendors may lose market share to foreign suppliers [11][12][30] Additional Important Insights 1. **Self-Sufficiency in GPU Production**: Despite the resumption of H20 shipments, China's efforts towards self-sufficiency in GPU production are expected to continue, with local GPU self-sufficiency projected to reach only 39% by 2027 [12][30] 2. **Market Demand vs. Supply**: There is strong demand for AI computing in China, but hardware supply constraints are causing delays in the deployment of next-generation models [49][68] 3. **Potential Risks**: The timing of license grants for chip shipments remains uncertain, and there are concerns about the availability of H20 chips and the competitive positioning of RTX chips [42][50] 4. **AI Adoption Strategy**: China's strategy focuses on creating an ecosystem for AI adoption across industries rather than solely competing on advanced computing capabilities [53] Conclusion The developments surrounding the H20 chip availability and the lifting of export restrictions are pivotal for the growth of AI applications in China, impacting both local and international semiconductor companies. The projected capex from Chinese CSPs and the anticipated recovery of companies like Samsung and TSMC highlight the significant market opportunities ahead. However, challenges remain regarding local GPU production and the overall supply chain dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from TSMC 2Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Industry**: Semiconductors Core Financial Results - **2Q25 Revenue**: NT$933.792 million, representing an increase of 11.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 38.6% year-over-year (YoY) [7] - **Operating Expenses (Opex)**: NT$83.946 million, a decrease of 2.7% QoQ and an increase of 17.3% YoY [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: NT$15.36, up 10.2% QoQ and 60.7% YoY, exceeding Morgan Stanley's estimate of NT$14.60 [7] - **Gross Margin (GM)**: 58.6%, a slight decrease of 17 basis points (bps) QoQ but an increase of 545 bps YoY [7] - **Operating Margin (OPM)**: 49.6%, up 112 bps QoQ and 708 bps YoY [7] 3Q25 Guidance - **Revenue Guidance**: Expected to be between US$31.8 billion and US$33.0 billion, indicating an 8% increase at the mid-point QoQ [10] - **EPS Guidance**: Projected at NT$13.33, down 13.2% QoQ but up 6.3% YoY [10] - **Gross Margin Guidance**: Expected to be between 55.5% and 57.5% [10] Strategic Insights - **Wafer Pricing**: TSMC is expected to achieve its goal of over 53% gross margin, supported by strong execution and potential wafer price hikes [12][14] - **AI Revenue Growth**: TSMC's AI semiconductor revenue is projected to account for approximately 34% of its revenue by 2027 [22] - **Chip Production**: TSMC is expected to produce 5.1 million chips in 2025, with full-year GB200 NVL72 shipments expected to reach 30,000 [24] Market Dynamics - **Demand for Advanced Nodes**: There is strong demand for TSMC's 2nm and 3nm nodes, driven by smartphone and high-performance computing (HPC) applications [27][29] - **China's AI Semiconductor Demand**: The demand for AI semiconductors in China is expected to grow significantly, with the total addressable market (TAM) projected to reach US$48 billion by 2027 [44] Risks and Considerations - **FX Impact**: The potential foreign exchange impact could be offset by strong operational execution and pricing strategies [12] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and restrictions may pose risks to TSMC's operations and market access, particularly in China [84] Conclusion - TSMC's strong financial performance in 2Q25 and optimistic guidance for 3Q25 reflect robust demand in the semiconductor market, particularly in AI and advanced technology nodes. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities while navigating potential risks associated with geopolitical factors and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported strong Q2 results and an optimistic outlook, with shares up nearly 25% year-to-date, driven by its leadership in advanced chip manufacturing for AI infrastructure [1][10]. Financial Performance - In Q2, TSMC's revenue increased by 44% to $30.1 billion, with earnings per American depositary receipt (ADR) soaring 67% to $2.47 [4]. - The company's gross margin expanded by 540 basis points year-over-year to 58.6%, although it anticipates a decline to 56.5% in Q3 due to currency headwinds and the ramp-up of new facilities [5]. Revenue Drivers - Advanced nodes (7 nm and under) accounted for 74% of TSMC's revenue, up from 67% a year ago, with the newest 3-nm technology contributing 24% of total wafer revenue, a significant increase from 15% [3]. - High-performance computing (HPC) was the largest revenue driver, making up 60% of total revenue in Q2, up from 52% a year ago, with HPC revenue climbing 14% sequentially [3]. Future Outlook - TSMC forecasts Q3 revenue between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, indicating approximately 38% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, with operating margins projected between 45.5% and 47.5% [6]. - The company raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 30%, citing accelerating AI demand and strengthening data center orders [7]. Strategic Investments - TSMC is investing $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S., with the construction of its second fab in Arizona completed and the first fab in high-volume production [8]. - The company plans to build six fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and establish an R&D center [8]. Competitive Position - TSMC has established itself as a leader in the semiconductor value chain, benefiting from its scale and technological expertise, especially as rivals like Intel and Samsung face challenges [2][10]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing AI infrastructure build-out, maintaining strong pricing power despite anticipated gross margin pressures from overseas expansion [11]. Valuation - TSMC's stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 based on 2025 estimates, with a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of around 0.7, indicating it is attractively valued [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that while Nvidia is a prominent player in the AI sector, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) presents a more stable investment opportunity due to its diversified growth prospects and strong market position. Group 1: Nvidia's Performance and Market Position - Nvidia's stock has increased by 1,600% over the past five years and recently became the first company to reach a market cap of $4 trillion [1] - The company reported a 69% year-over-year revenue increase in its most recent quarter [4] - Nvidia's stock trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 29 and a P/E ratio of 55, indicating it may be expensive relative to its growth potential [6] Group 2: TSMC's Investment Appeal - TSMC is highlighted as a compelling alternative to Nvidia, with growth prospects tied to advances in AI technology [9] - The company holds a 58% share of the global semiconductor market, providing it with a competitive edge in an industry characterized by high barriers to entry [11] - In the second quarter, TSMC's revenue rose by 39% year-over-year, with net income increasing by 61% and gross margin improving by 5.1 percentage points [13] Group 3: Risk Management and Diversification - TSMC is taking steps to diversify its global manufacturing footprint to mitigate tariff-related risks [10][14] - The company is not solely reliant on AI, as it has multiple clients across various sectors, which protects it from fluctuations in any single market [11] - TSMC's stock trades at a P/E ratio of 31 and a price-to-sales ratio of 13, which is considered reasonable given its growth potential [15]