One of the names, Dick Sporting Goods, was on the ledger today. They beat on the top and the bottom line. Shares were down though because the company is closing some Foot Locker stores to protect profits.Um, the stock has come back. It's up 2%. Silence that.Thank you. As Stephanie Link buys this name. >> Yeah, first time ever, by the way.>> Yeah. What What was the big draw for you. >> Could I just go back on retail sales.I mean, I know it's September data, but it was up 5.7% year-over-year. So, it's still q ...

Summary of China Beauty Expert Call Post 11.11 Events Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Beauty Sector - **Event**: 11.11 Shopping Festival Performance Review - **Date of Call**: November 17, 2025 Key Takeaways 1. **GMV Growth Across Platforms**: - Tmall: Approximately +8% year-over-year (yoy) - Douyin: Approximately +20% yoy - JD: Approximately +15% yoy - PDD: Approximately +12% yoy - Overall GMV growth for the beauty sector: Approximately +14% yoy according to Syntun Data [1][1][1] 2. **Performance of Local Listed Companies**: - Mao Geping (MGP) achieved approximately +60% GMV growth, leading the local brands - Chicmax and Proya maintained strong positions on Douyin and Tmall, respectively - Other local companies faced growth pressures [1][1][1] 3. **International Brands Recovery**: - Most international brands reported over +20% GMV growth, particularly high-end brands like Estee Lauder, Lancome, SK-II, and Shiseido [1][1][1] 4. **Emergence of Local Non-Listed Companies**: - Notable growth from brands such as Chando, Pechoin, Forest Cabin, and Grainrain [1][1][1] 5. **Discount Levels**: - Overall discount levels deepened by 5-8 percentage points yoy compared to the June 18 events [1][1][1] 6. **Preliminary Outlook for 2026**: - US/EU high-end brands expected to maintain growth momentum - Mass brands and Japanese/Korean brands likely to face challenges - High discount levels anticipated to persist [1][1][1] Company-Specific Insights - **Mao Geping (MGP)**: - Enhanced brand equity and unique offline presence expected to drive revenue and earnings CAGR of 31% from 2025 to 2027, outpacing peers' growth of 19% and 16% [1][1][1] - **Chicmax**: - Expected to benefit from the fast growth and local pride trend in China's cosmetics industry, leveraging a successful multi-brand portfolio and strong R&D capabilities [1][1][1] Analyst Preferences in China Beauty Sector - Order of preference: - MGP = Chicmax > Proya > Botanee > Yatsen > Marubi > Jahwa [1][1][1] Additional Notes - Concerns were raised regarding MGP's skincare product pipeline visibility in the mid-term [3][3][3] - Chicmax's KANS brand achieved approximately +30% GMV growth and maintained its position as the No.1 beauty brand on Douyin during the 11.11 events, with self-livestreaming contributing over 70% to GMV [3][3][3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the expert call regarding the performance and outlook of the China beauty sector following the 11.11 shopping events.

Market Performance & Outlook - The S&P 500 is up 36% from the April 8th lows and 16% year-to-date [2] - The economy is growing at 4% and productivity growth is running up 3% [2][3] - Earnings are growing 123%, revenues are growing 8%, both exceeding historical averages of 5% [4] - Fourth quarter growth is expected to be 8-12% cumulatively, suggesting a positive outlook [5] - The market has strong tailwinds, including accommodative global central banks and disinflationary trends [6] Technology Sector & AI - Technology is a key driver of the market, but investors are uncertain about the broadening out of the AI trade [8][12] - Mega-cap technology stocks experienced significant market cap fluctuations, adding $618 billion after losing $800 billion the previous week [10] - The market is differentiating between companies with explicable AI capex strategies and those with less clear paybacks [16] Investment Strategies & Considerations - Investors should consider whether they are overweight in technology and assess the potential for technology positions to be a source of liquidity in 2026 [9] - It's important to use stops and ride the best stocks in the market during the year-end meltup period [21] - There are opportunities beyond AI, with various stocks in uptrends and great technical setups, including commodities and energy stocks [19][20]

Core Insights - Shopify reported a Q3 sales increase of 32% in gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue, alongside an 18% free cash flow margin, indicating strong growth and consistent profitability [1][4] - The platform is attracting both small startups and large brands like Estee Lauder, suggesting a trend of larger enterprises seeking to modernize their commerce solutions [1][3][4] - Shopify holds approximately 12% of the U.S. e-commerce market share and is outpacing the overall e-commerce market growth [4][5] Company Strategy - Shopify aims to simplify the process of starting an online store, allowing entrepreneurs to set up a store in under an hour, which contributes to a rapid increase in new businesses [6][7] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its platform, enabling merchants to sell across various channels and future-proof their businesses [1][2][8] - Shopify's focus on operational discipline while maintaining high revenue growth positions it as a strong player in the e-commerce space [5] Market Position - The company has seen a shift where larger brands prefer to utilize Shopify's infrastructure rather than maintaining their own technology stacks, indicating a trend towards outsourcing commerce solutions [2][3] - Shopify's ease of use and comprehensive features have led to a significant reduction in competition, with fewer viable alternatives for entrepreneurs [5][6] - Success stories of brands that started on Shopify, such as Aloe and Gym Shark, highlight the platform's capability to support growth from inception to scale [8]

Estee Lauder swung to a fiscal first-quarter profit and reiterated its sales-growth projections for the fiscal year as the cosmetics giant regained market share in the key Chinese market https://t.co/bVK1Nc6UuN ...

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - Retail sector faces challenges due to President Trump's tariff policies on China, with the XRT ETF experiencing its worst day since May and the worst week of the year [1] - Tariff-driven price increases in the retail sector have stalled recently, according to an index tracking retail price adjustments [2][3] - Fresh threats of massive new tariffs could hinder retailers' ability to pass along costs, potentially impacting margins [4] - The upcoming holiday selling season is crucial for retailers, with most of their business concentrated in this period, raising risks related to pricing and demand [5] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - Retailers may struggle to pass on new tariff costs, especially heading into Q4 and the holiday season [4] - If retailers have to discount, then that's a problem on the margin side, but if retailers have to re-up, then that's a problem potentially on the tariff side [4] - Consumer discretionary spending is described as "okay, but not great," with various pressures impacting consumers [6] - Continued or accelerated price increases by retailers could further pressure discretionary spending [7] Company Performance - Companies like Five Below, Estee Lauder, Best Buy, and Capri are among the hardest hit by the tariff concerns [1]

Summary of China Cosmetics Monthly Tracker - August 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China cosmetics industry, specifically analyzing the performance of online sales on platforms such as Tmall, Taobao, and Douyin for both local and multinational companies. Key Highlights GMV Performance - In August, the online GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) growth for cosmetics decelerated to **11% year-over-year (yoy)**, down from **14% yoy** in July. This was influenced by a **20% yoy** growth on Douyin (compared to **32% in July**), while Tmall/Taobao experienced a **1% yoy decline** (improved from **-9% in July**) [1][2] - The combined GMV growth for July and August was **13% yoy**, an acceleration from **8% in Q2 2025** due to an easier comparison base [1] Brand Performance - Local brands regained market share from multinational corporations (MNCs) post the 618 shopping festival. Notable growth figures include: - **Marubi**: **91% yoy** - **Mao Geping**: **79% yoy** - **Shanghai Jahwa**: **59% yoy** - **KANS**: **55% yoy** - **Proya**: **9% yoy** [2][16] - In contrast, **Giant** experienced a **7% decline** due to the absence of top-tier KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders), which are expected to return in September-October [2][17] - MNCs generally saw larger yoy declines in August compared to July, attributed to a tougher comparison base and likely order front-loading to the last 618. Notable declines include: - **Estee Lauder**: **-6% yoy** (with La Mer down **-19% yoy**) - **L'Oreal**: **-8% yoy** (L'Oreal Paris down **-24% yoy**) - **Shiseido**: **-19% yoy** [2][18] Market Share Dynamics - Tmall/Taobao lost **4% market share** to Douyin in August compared to July, with most brands shifting their focus to Douyin [15] - The average GMV contribution for MNCs was **54% from Tmall/Taobao** and **46% from Douyin**, while local brands had a more balanced contribution [15] Livestreaming and KOL Impact - Giant Biogene's management expressed confidence in the resumption of KOL activities ahead of the Double 11 shopping festival. A notable event included top-tier KOL **Jia Nailiang** generating over **RMB 25 million** in GMV within two hours during a livestream on September 8, boosting Comfy's Douyin GMV growth to **119% yoy** [3][7] Other Observations - The overall GMV decrease of **1%** in August was primarily driven by a **20% yoy** decline in volume, although this was partially offset by a **23% yoy** increase in average selling price (ASP) [10][12] - Local brands showed resilience with strong growth figures, while MNCs struggled to maintain their market positions amidst increasing competition from local players [16][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the August 2025 tracker, highlighting the competitive landscape and performance trends within the China cosmetics industry.

Summary of Perfect Corp (PERF) FY Conference Call - August 26, 2025 Company Overview - Perfect Corp is a Taiwan-based company with approximately 400 employees, primarily focused on R&D in the beauty and fashion app space [2][3] - The company was founded a decade ago and initially operated as an app maker before transitioning to B2B software solutions for beauty brands [4][5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources: Approximately 50% from the US, 30% from the EU, and 20% from Japan [4][5] - Initial revenue breakdown at listing (2022): 75% B2B and 25% B2C; as of 2023, it has shifted to roughly 50% B2B and 50% B2C, with projections for 2024 indicating 60% B2C and 40% B2B [7][8] - B2C apps operate on a freemium model, with subscription prices increasing from $5-$7 to $79 per year [8][9] Product Offerings - B2C apps include "You Can Makeup" and "You Can Perfect," focusing on photo editing and virtual try-ons [6][9] - B2B services include virtual try-ons for makeup and skin analysis, with clients such as Estee Lauder, LVMH, and Chanel [7][19] - The company has over 800 brand clients and 914,000 SKUs running on its software, showing a growth of over 20% in brand clients since 2021 [19][20] Financial Performance - 2024 growth rate: 12.5%; guidance for 2025 is 13% to 14.5% [25][26] - Gross margin decreased from 79% to 75% year-over-year due to lower margins in B2C compared to B2B [26][27] - Positive operating cash flow with $167 million in cash and cash equivalents [28] Strategic Initiatives - Recent acquisition of Wana for $6 million to enhance offerings in AIAR technology for luxury brands [24] - Focus on reinvesting in R&D for premium Gen AI features and expanding B2B client base [29][30] Market Challenges - The company faces macroeconomic pressures affecting clients like Estee Lauder and LVMH, leading to tighter budgets [42] - Currency exchange issues due to the appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar impacting operational costs [28][29] Competitive Landscape - The company maintains a 90% retention rate in B2B, indicating strong client loyalty [47] - Differentiation from competitors lies in continuous R&D investment and user-friendly app design [44][45] Technology and Innovation - The company is exploring advancements in 3D virtual try-ons for clothing, although current technology is not yet ready for full implementation [37][38] - Color calibration challenges exist across different devices, particularly on Android, requiring significant investment in accuracy [50][51] Conclusion - Perfect Corp is positioned for growth with a strong focus on B2C expansion and innovative technology solutions, despite facing market challenges and competitive pressures [30][42]

Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as In-Line [4] Core Insights - The Asia Beauty market is currently experiencing a potential turnaround or bottoming phase, with varying growth rates across different segments and brands [2][6] - The report highlights significant year-on-year growth in cosmetics sales, particularly in the Chinese market, with some brands showing remarkable recovery post-pandemic [18][36] Summary by Sections China Beauty Market - The report provides a detailed analysis of the cosmetics sales growth in China, indicating fluctuations in growth rates over the years, with a notable recovery trend observed in recent quarters [6][18] - Monthly cosmetics import units showed a year-on-year growth of 17% in the first five months of 2025 [22] Cosmetics Sales Tracker - The quarterly sales tracker for major beauty brands in China reveals varied performance, with brands like Proya and Imeik showing strong growth rates, while others like AmorePacific and Marubi faced declines [18] - For instance, Proya's sales growth was recorded at 49% in 1Q21, while Imeik peaked at 228% in the same period [18] Online Shopping Trends - The report outlines the rankings of beauty products during major online shopping festivals, with L'Oreal and Proya consistently leading in sales across platforms like Tmall and Douyin [31][32] - The rankings indicate a strong presence of both international and local brands, with Chinese brands like Proya gaining significant market share [31][32] Market Share Analysis - The skincare and color cosmetics market shares in China are analyzed, showing a competitive landscape with brands like L'Oreal, Estee Lauder, and Proya dominating the market [39][41] - The report emphasizes the growing importance of online sales channels in driving brand visibility and consumer engagement [31][32]