随着台积电拿走芯片制造更多利润，产业风险也在进一步聚集。 文丨 邱豪 贺乾明 编辑丨龚方毅 1990 年代，硅谷诞生数十家只设计、不制造的芯片公司（Fabless）。AMD 创始人杰瑞·桑德斯（Jerry Sanders）在一场行业会议上说："现在听我说，真正的 男人要有晶圆厂"。他认为，只做设计的芯片公司，只能在晶圆厂有空余产能时才能下单，还得把设计图纸无保留地交给竞争对手，容易让公司陷入困境。 十多年后，芯片行业沿着桑德斯预想的糟糕情况发展。按照他的标准，当前最强的一批芯片公司——苹果、英伟达、博通、高通等，都不是 "真男人"。AMD 也变成一家纯设计芯片的公司，经历多年阵痛后，在女性 CEO 苏姿丰带领下走出困境。 晶圆厂依旧重要，只是没几家能建得起最先进的。台积电保持绝对优势，生产全球 60% 的逻辑芯片、90% 的 5 纳米以内先进芯片。先进芯片制造领域，台积 电仅剩的两个对手各有各的困境： 与此同时，台积电董事长魏哲家在二季度财报电话会上提出 "Foundry 2.0" 的概念，称台积电的业务范围覆盖先进芯片的制造、封装、测试等流程。芯片设计 公司只要给台积电递交设计文件（GDS），几个月后就能收 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2023, ASML achieved total revenue of €27.6 billion, a 30% increase compared to the previous year, despite the semiconductor industry experiencing an 8% decline [15][17] - The gross margin improved to 51.3%, with net income reported at €7.8 billion and net bookings at €20 billion [17][25] - The company returned €3.3 billion to shareholders, including €2.3 billion in dividends and €1 billion in share buybacks [18][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Logic business saw substantial growth, increasing from approximately €10 billion in 2022 to nearly €16 billion in 2023, driven by demand for advanced logic and mature technologies [18][20] - EUV technology sales grew by 30%, while DPV sales surged by 60%, indicating strong demand for immersion technology [17][18] - The applications business experienced a slight decline, attributed to its shorter lead time and lack of significant backlog [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ASML's sales in China increased significantly, rising from 14% to 29% of total sales, reflecting the company's ability to meet previously unmet demand in the region [21] - The company noted that the semiconductor market is expected to grow from €600 billion to around €1 trillion by 2030, indicating a robust long-term outlook for the industry [55] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ASML is preparing for significant growth in 2025, viewing 2024 as a transition year with expected revenue levels similar to 2023 [32][33] - The company is focused on building capacity and hiring talent to meet anticipated demand, particularly in advanced technologies [33][56] - ASML emphasizes the importance of sustainability and ESG initiatives, aiming for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 [59][64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the current downturn in the semiconductor industry but expressed confidence in a recovery, citing improved customer dynamics and tool utilization [34][35] - The company expects a stronger second half of 2024, driven by a healthy order intake and improved market conditions [34][36] Other Important Information - ASML's R&D expenditure reached €4 billion in 2023, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and technology development [25][30] - The company reported a healthy cash balance of around €7 billion, providing resilience amid industry challenges [26] Q&A Session: All Questions and Answers Question: Impact of US Government Restrictions on Advanced DUV Machines - Management indicated that the restrictions would not significantly affect the 2025 or 2030 financial targets, as the impact is limited to specific factories under export control [80][89] Question: China's Advancements in DUV Technology - Management clarified that while China can technically achieve 5nm chips using multi-patterning, the economic feasibility for high-volume manufacturing remains a challenge [91][92] Question: Adoption of High NA EUV Technology - Management expressed confidence in the adoption of high NA EUV technology, noting that initial customer interest is strong, and the adoption will be gradual [94][96] Question: Free Cash Flow and Backlog Recovery - Management acknowledged that free cash flow is under pressure due to lower contract liabilities but expects a recovery in backlog as orders return [82][104] Question: Expansion Potential in Eindhoven - Management confirmed ongoing discussions with the Dutch government regarding expansion plans and emphasized the need for a supportive investment climate [83][102]

Financial Performance - Total net sales for Q1 2024 were €5.3 billion, at the midpoint of guidance, with net system sales of €4 billion driven primarily by Logic at 63% and Memory at 37% [7][8] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51%, exceeding guidance due to product mix and other factors [8] - Net income for Q1 was €1.2 billion, representing 23.1% of total net sales, resulting in an EPS of €3.11 [8] - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of Q1 were €5.4 billion, lower than the previous quarter, with negative free cash flow attributed to lower down payments and higher inventory [9] Business Line Performance - Installed Base Management sales for Q1 were €1.3 billion, consistent with guidance [8] - Q1 net system bookings totaled €3.6 billion, with €656 million for EUV bookings and €2.9 billion for non-EUV bookings, driven by Memory at 59% and Logic at 41% [10][11] - The backlog at the end of Q1 was approximately €38 billion, indicating strong future demand [12] Market Trends - Semiconductor inventory levels are improving, with increased tool utilization among Logic and Memory customers, aligning with industry recovery [14] - Memory demand is driven by DRAM technology transitions supporting advanced memories like DDR5 and HBM, while Logic customers are digesting previous capacity additions [14][18] - The company expects a stronger second half of 2024, viewing it as a transition year with continued investments in capacity and technology [23] Strategic Direction - The company anticipates revenue growth in 2024, particularly from EUV systems, with plans to recognize revenue from 1 to 2 INA systems [18][19] - The focus remains on preparing for significant new fabs being built globally, supported by government incentives [25] - Long-term growth opportunities are expected despite near-term uncertainties, with a strong outlook for 2025 driven by secular growth in semiconductor end markets [24][26] Management Commentary - Management noted that the current environment is characterized by a recovery from the downturn, with expectations for a strong second half of 2024 [14][23] - The company remains confident in long-term growth opportunities, emphasizing the importance of both advanced and mainstream semiconductors [24][81] - Management highlighted the need for ongoing dialogue with customers to align on future demand and order placements [70] Q&A Session Summary Question: EUV orders and 2025 outlook - Management acknowledged that order intake can be lumpy and emphasized the need for significant orders from large customers to meet 2025 targets [30][34] Question: China sales impact - Management confirmed that while China sales were strong, they were lower in Q1 compared to Q4 of the previous year, but expected continued strength throughout 2024 [43][46] Question: Memory orders and technology transitions - The majority of recent memory orders were technology-related, particularly for DDR5 and HBM, indicating ongoing demand for advanced memory solutions [62] Question: Lead times and order placements - Management discussed the importance of ongoing customer dialogue to ensure timely order placements, despite bureaucratic processes that may delay formal orders [70][71] Question: Electrification and lithography demand - Management highlighted that electrification and investments in renewable energy are significant drivers for both mainstream and advanced semiconductor demand [95][96]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q3 2023 were €6.7 billion, aligning with guidance [6] - Gross margin for the quarter was 51.9%, exceeding guidance due to product mix and one-off cost effects [7] - Net income for Q3 was €1.9 billion, representing 28.4% of net sales, resulting in an EPS of €4.81 [8] - Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments at the end of Q3 totaled €5 billion [8] - Q3 net system bookings were €2.6 billion, with a backlog exceeding €35 billion at the end of Q3 [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from EUV systems was €1.9 billion from 10 systems shipped, while net system sales totaled €5.3 billion, driven primarily by logic at 76% [7] - Installed base management sales for the quarter were €1.4 billion, as guided [7] - The installed base business is expected to decline by around 5% year-over-year, a revision from previous flat growth expectations [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q3 bookings were primarily driven by logic at 80%, with memory accounting for 20% [8] - The company noted a moderation in orders as customers manage cash flows and delay purchases due to industry cycles [9] - China demand for DPV systems remains strong, with a significant portion of orders booked in 2022 [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects significant growth in 2025, driven by new fab projects and increased capacity from existing fabs [15][22] - The company is preparing for a strong recovery in 2025, with expectations of a transition year in 2024 [24] - The geopolitical environment, particularly export controls, may impact regional shipment splits but not global demand [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, affecting customer behavior [13] - There are signs of improvement in end-market inventory levels, particularly in logic, while memory remains weak [14][60] - Management expects a recovery in memory to follow the logic recovery, although timing remains uncertain [60] Other Important Information - An interim dividend of €1.45 per ordinary share is scheduled for payment on November 10, 2023 [11] - The company plans to manage cash flows prudently due to ongoing pressure on free cash flow [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: How to think about gross margin expectations for 2024? - Management indicated that while they cannot provide specific guidance, factors such as ASP increases and service improvements will positively impact gross margin, while capacity expansion and high NA tool preparations may present headwinds [26][30] Question: Expectations for revenue not recognized by year-end? - Management confirmed expectations for revenue not recognized to be around €2.3 billion by year-end, with some catch-up anticipated in 2024 [31][33] Question: Unit expectations for EUV and DUV in 2024? - Management expects a reduction in DUV units due to previous high volumes in China and new export controls, while EUV units may also decline but with higher sales prices [38][40] Question: Sustainability of spending levels in China? - Management believes that spending levels in China will remain strong due to significant investments in renewable energy and industrial IoT, despite geopolitical tensions [44][46] Question: Percentage of shipments to China under new restrictions? - Management indicated that 10% to 15% of shipments this year may fall under the new restrictions, primarily affecting advanced semiconductor manufacturing [51] Question: Utilization levels and trends across memory versus logic? - Management noted that logic utilization is showing signs of improvement, while memory utilization remains low, with expectations that memory will follow logic's recovery [58][60] Question: Impact of 2025 guidance in light of current macro environment? - Management emphasized that despite current uncertainties, the cyclical nature of the industry suggests a strong recovery in 2025, supported by underlying demand trends [67][72]