今日早参 2025 年 4 月 25 日 黄乐平 全球科技战略首席研究员 座机：14715372496 邮箱：huangleping@htsc.com 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 今日热点 科技：车展观察：安全、出海、世界模型 4/23，我们参加上海车展媒体日活动，实地走访了包括小米、比亚迪、问 界 、 蔚来 、 理想 、小 鹏、 极 氪等 整 车品 牌， 以及 地 平线 、 黑芝 麻、 Momenta、芯驰等芯片/平台公司。我们观察到：1）智能驾驶改名，企业强 调安全。参展公司在宣传中弱化"智驾"宣传，安全成为消费者考虑的重 点；2）会场上国际记者/博主增多，出海是企业主线。国际记者以及博主参 展较多，侧面反映中国电动车的全球影响力；3）"世界模型"成为 AI 辅助驾 驶的新技术趋势。会场上各车企及平台供应商强调"世界模型"，智能驾驶 竞争进入"深水区"。 风险提示：AI 及技术落地不及预期；本研报中涉及到未上市公司或未覆盖个 股内容，均系对其客观公开信息的整理，并不代表本研究团队对该公司、该 股票的推荐或覆盖。 石 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jim Cramer has identified data centers as a top investment sector for 2025, despite mixed trading signals and potential market corrections [1][2][3][8] Group 1: Investment Sentiment - Cramer believes that data center stocks are undervalued, indicating that the current trading levels do not reflect the true potential of the sector [2] - The data center theme has been a significant investment narrative, with ongoing changes in market sentiment that may not be immediately visible in broader indices [3] Group 2: Company Performance - Vertiv, a data center infrastructure provider, experienced a notable stock rally, with shares increasing over 18% in pre-market trading following a strong quarterly report and positive guidance, ultimately closing up 8.64% at $78 [4] Group 3: Market Concerns - There are emerging concerns that the data center sector may be approaching a bubble, as indicated by Microsoft scaling back on projects and Alibaba's Joe Tsai warning of potential market corrections reminiscent of the Dot-com bubble [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Vertiv (VRT) with a price target of $100.00 by December 2025 [4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Vertiv has shown stronger than expected orders and backlog, which supports a positive outlook for the stock. The guidance for 2025 has been reaffirmed, indicating robust demand driven by AI and data center investments [1][7]. - The company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.64, exceeding both the internal estimate and street expectations, alongside a significant year-over-year organic sales growth of 25% [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the strong competitive positioning of Vertiv in the data center market, with a focus on the company's ability to capture market share and improve margins despite tariff-related challenges [7][13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Vertiv's 1Q25 sales reached $2.036 billion, surpassing estimates and reflecting a 4.3% increase compared to expectations. Organic sales growth was particularly strong in North America (+29%) and APAC (+36%) [2][11]. - Adjusted operating profit (AOP) was reported at $337 million, slightly below estimates, with margins at 16.5%, impacted by tariffs [2][11]. Guidance and Outlook - The 2025 sales guidance has been increased to a range of $9.325-9.575 billion, reflecting an organic growth expectation of 16.5-19.5% [2][13]. - The report outlines a positive outlook for 2Q25, with expected organic sales growth of approximately 21% and total revenues projected between $2.325-2.375 billion [2][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Vertiv is positioned as a leading supplier in the data center market, benefiting from strategic changes since becoming independent in 2017. The company aims for sustained share gains and margin improvements [13][14]. - The report notes that the company is actively managing tariff impacts and has a robust orders pipeline, indicating continued demand strength [3][6][7].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, adjusted diluted EPS increased by 49% to $0.64, driven by higher adjusted operating profit and lower interest expenses [31][32] - Organic net sales rose by 25% year-over-year, exceeding sales guidance by over $100 million [32][33] - Adjusted operating profit increased by 35% to $337 million, with a 130 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin [16][33] - Adjusted free cash flow reached $265 million, up 162% year-over-year, indicating strong cash generation [17][34] - Net leverage improved to 0.8%, with an investment-grade credit rating recently assigned by Fitch [35][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Strong growth was observed in both the Americas and APAC regions, while EMEA's growth lagged due to slower AI infrastructure build [37] - Adjusted operating margin increased across all three regions, with the Americas showing a 160 basis point expansion [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The trailing 12-month organic orders growth was reported at 20%, with Q1 orders up 21% sequentially and 13% year-over-year [15][16] - The backlog expanded to $7.9 billion, up $1.6 billion year-over-year, supporting the growth narrative [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on the digital revolution and robust data center demand, particularly in AI infrastructure [8][14] - A strong emphasis on operational excellence and supply chain resilience has been established to navigate tariff challenges [23][28] - The company raised its full-year sales growth guidance to 18%, reflecting confidence in business fundamentals despite tariff uncertainties [17][46] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to handle market challenges and emphasized the importance of execution and operational flexibility [10][11] - The outlook for 2025 remains strong, with expectations for continued growth driven by demand signals from customers and technology partners [20][52] Other Important Information - The company is actively working on tariff mitigation strategies, including supply chain reconfiguration and pricing adjustments [25][28] - A significant project with NVIDIA to deliver a prefabricated AI factory was highlighted, showcasing the company's capabilities in advanced infrastructure [54][57] Q&A Session Summary Question: How do you see the mitigation efforts phasing in through '25? - Management indicated that countermeasures will improve throughout the year, with pricing actions on new contracts and existing backlog repricing being key components [61][64] Question: What is driving the impressive performance on orders? - Management noted that growing pipelines and order durability are key factors, with a stable pipeline velocity indicating sustained demand [72][74] Question: Can you provide details on China import exposure? - Management refrained from disclosing specific numbers but confirmed that a small percentage of sourcing comes from China, with ongoing supply chain adjustments [79][82] Question: How are you managing production given market dynamics? - Management stated that demand remains strong across various segments, allowing for increased capacity and delivery to the market [98][100] Question: Can you discuss the ability to reprice the backlog? - Ongoing conversations with customers regarding repricing are taking place, with a general understanding of the unique challenges posed by tariffs [103][105] Question: Will Europe start to contribute to bookings this year? - Management expressed cautious optimism about European growth, while the Americas continue to be a strong growth engine [114][115] Question: What is the total gross tariff-related pressure for 2025? - Management did not disclose specific figures but emphasized a focus on reducing the gross impact through pricing and supply chain countermeasures [89][90] Question: Why was there no stock repurchase activity? - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong balance sheet during uncertain times and indicated an active M&A pipeline [92][94] Question: Are you seeing any signs of cloud and colo demand slowing down? - Management confirmed that demand in the cloud and colo segments remains strong, with growth expectations aligned with previous forecasts [132][134]

First Quarter 2025 Results April 23, 2025 Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation, and other statements that Vertiv may make in connection therewith, may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to Vertiv's future financial or business performance, strategies or expectations, and as such are not historical facts. This includes, without limitation, statements regarding Vertiv's financial posi ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Vertiv's stock rose significantly, indicating strong demand for data center equipment, with a peak increase of 21% in early trading and a 10.5% rise by midday [1] - The earnings report revealed a positive outlook with a hike in full-year sales guidance and a return to strong order growth [2] - Concerns over previous flat order performance were alleviated by a 13% growth in orders in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2024, alongside a 20% increase in trailing-12-month orders [3] Group 2: Guidance and Valuation - Management updated the organic net sales growth forecast to 16.5%-19.5%, up from the previous estimate of 15%-17%, while maintaining the midpoint of earnings and free cash flow guidance [4] - Vertiv is currently trading at less than 24 times the midpoint of free cash flow guidance for 2025, positioning it as an attractively priced growth stock amid the early stages of AI application growth [5]

Core Insights - Vertiv Holdings Co (NYSE:VRT) stock increased by 16.4% to $83.60 following better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue, along with an upward revision of full-year sales guidance, driven by strong demand for data center infrastructure to support artificial intelligence (AI) [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock is currently trading at its highest level since late March, although it remains 48% below its record high of $155.81 from January 24, and has a year-to-date deficit of 24% [2] - Shares are testing their 50-day moving average, which has not been cleared on a closing basis since a late January bear gap [2] Group 2: Options Activity - Vertiv stock has experienced significant options activity with 28,000 calls and 9,992 puts traded, which is triple the typical overall options volume for this time [3] - The most popular option is the weekly 4/25 90-strike call, with new positions being opened [3] Group 3: Sentiment Shift - There has been a notable shift in trader sentiment, as puts were more popular prior to the recent surge in call activity, indicated by a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.05, ranking higher than 95% of readings from the past year [4]

Key Takeaways Vertiv shares have struggled in 2025 amid the cooldown in AI stocks. The company is on deck to report quarterly results this week. Analysts have taken a bearish stance on its EPS outlook. The AI trade has cooled off significantly in 2025, a stark turnaround after big gains that spanned several years. While many have recalculated their bets, the staying power of AI is undeniable, and it will undoubtedly remain a focal point within the market for years to come.A company in the middle of the fr ...

Core Insights - Vertiv has announced a collaboration with NVIDIA and iGenius to deploy Colosseum, a significant AI supercomputer, in Italy in 2025, aimed at transforming the digital landscape for regulated workloads [1][3][12] - Colosseum is designed to meet the needs of highly regulated industries such as finance and healthcare, combining computational power, energy efficiency, and data sovereignty [2][9] Group 1: Collaboration and Technology - The partnership between Vertiv and NVIDIA has led to the development of Colosseum, which utilizes NVIDIA's DGX SuperPOD technology and is strategically located in southern Italy [3][4] - Colosseum is engineered for efficiency, leveraging Vertiv's infrastructure management and NVIDIA's accelerated computing capabilities, marking a new era for mission-critical AI [4][10] Group 2: Infrastructure and Design - The modular and scalable design of Colosseum allows for rapid deployment of one of the fastest hyperscale AI supercomputers, supporting sovereign AI [5][6] - Vertiv's AI-ready prefabricated modular data center solution supports up to 132kW per rack initially, with scalability for future designs [10][11] Group 3: Innovation and Efficiency - The use of NVIDIA Omniverse technologies enables real-time collaboration and predictive modeling, significantly reducing design-to-deploy cycles from months to hours [7][8] - Colosseum serves as a template for scalable, repeatable sovereign AI factories, emphasizing the importance of secure and efficient data processing [12][13] Group 4: Company Backgrounds - Vertiv provides critical digital infrastructure solutions globally, addressing challenges in data centers and communication networks [15] - iGenius specializes in AI solutions for regulated industries, offering products like Unicorn and advanced language models tailored for mission-critical applications [16]

Industry Trends - The overall demand outlook for data centers is optimistic among industry participants, with many projects scheduled for the coming years [2] - The transition from traditional cloud architecture to dedicated AI infrastructure is accelerating, driven by increasing power density [2] - Rack power in data centers is expected to rise from 120 kilowatts (Blackwell architecture) to 600 kilowatts (Rubin architecture), potentially reaching 1 megawatt in the future [2] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming a standard in new AI data centers due to its ability to enhance performance and reduce costs [2] Company Developments and Technology Roadmap - nVent Electric (NVT.US) is launching various liquid cooling solutions and will focus on customized cooling designs for AI data centers [3] - Carrier Global (CARR.US) plans to launch a 1 megawatt cooling distribution unit (CDU) by the end of this year, with data center-related revenue expected to double from $500 million last year to $1 billion this year [3] - Vertiv Holdings (VRT.US) has a 2.3 megawatt liquid cooling system favored by hyperscale data center clients and is aligning with NVIDIA's technology roadmap [3] - Schneider Electric is providing on-site power solutions and expanding its liquid cooling presence in the Middle East and Asia, with 96% of its supply chain located in North America [3] Challenges and Controversies - There are differing opinions on the sustainability of demand, with short-term growth potentially affected by customer structure and macroeconomic factors [4] - Existing AI applications may not be sufficient to absorb future capacity, necessitating the development of new application scenarios [4] - Some customers are divided on whether to adopt the latest technology immediately or wait for the next generation of designs [4]