来源：财富大侦探007 本文原标题：《奉旨吹牛 | 东方阿尔法产业先锋A成立四年净值六毛多，基民骂：天下第一差基》 基金分享 657 ： 东方阿尔法产业先锋 A （ 011704 ） 各位侦探哥的粉丝们大家好，四年前，我们每天都分享一只基金，现在这个栏目又重新开始了，我们继续按照最新季度的规模排名从大到小来分 析基金，超过500只！现在只要反应基金产品业绩不好，基金公司高管变动、基金经理一拖多、风格漂移啥的，都有可能给你戴上"写黑稿"、"敲 诈勒索"的帽子，咱现在尽可能给基金公司吹牛！ 今天来分享的的这只产品是——东方阿尔法产业先锋A（011704），这是东方阿尔法基金基金经理尹智斌和周谧管理的产品。这只基金成立时间 已经超4年了，目前来看，成立以来业绩涨-33.44%，目前累计净值0.6656元。这算是一只比较新的的产品，成立以来业绩太差了，属于是很烂垃 圾的产品了，阶段性业绩也都不错，长期业绩近3年的业绩也比同类平均差很多，中期业绩虽然上涨，总的来说还是没回本啊，感觉投研实力是真 挺差的。 这只产品成立于2021年7月21日，尹智斌是从2024年1月30日开始管理这只基金，任期回报赚了65.7%，虽然说只 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a period of fluctuation as the third quarter concludes, with brokerages maintaining a relatively positive outlook for the fourth quarter, suggesting that the market trend is not yet over [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, with major indices experiencing divergence; the Shanghai Composite Index remains in a high-level fluctuation while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices continue to rise [2]. - A structural recovery in A-share earnings is anticipated, driven by policy expectations, macro and micro liquidity improvements, and a resilient export growth forecast [2]. Policy Impact - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to boost the RMB exchange rate, attracting global capital inflows into China, with a shift in market focus towards 2026 economic and policy expectations [3]. - Domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with increased allocation towards equity assets by residents, contributing to market growth [3]. Market Style - The market is expected to exhibit a more balanced style in the fourth quarter, with both growth and value styles having opportunities [4]. - Historical data suggests that value styles have a slightly higher probability of outperforming growth styles in the fourth quarter since 2013 [4]. Investment Focus - The primary investment focus for the fourth quarter includes technology growth sectors, particularly AI, alongside cyclical products and sectors with improving economic conditions [5][6]. - Specific sectors identified for potential growth include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military, financial IT, and various consumer goods [6]. Sector Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, AI hardware and applications, and consumer services, with particular attention to emerging trends in pet economy, IP toys, and beauty products [6].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with stagnant performance in banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stagnate and is expected to reach new highs, driven by favorable conditions such as a stable short-term risk outlook and potential capital market reforms [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market may be in the making, with opportunities arising from the easing of liquidity constraints and a shift towards cyclical manufacturing sectors like non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals [2] - Zheshang Securities suggests a period of consolidation for the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach to investment and a focus on sectors like hard technology and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities anticipates continued market fluctuations leading up to the National Day holiday, with a tendency for funds to secure profits amid uncertainties [4] - According to China Merchants Securities, historical patterns suggest that financing activities typically contract before the holiday and surge afterward, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial rotation is emphasized by Industrial Securities, advocating for a diversified approach to investment to navigate market volatility [6][7] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the clarity in future market trends following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of sectors like AI and essential materials [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four investment themes in the construction sector, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [10]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining core investment themes while exploring new platforms in the A-share market for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][4] - Key recommended sectors include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military industry, financial IT, power equipment, and agricultural products [3] - The report anticipates a more abundant liquidity environment due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may enhance market expectations [4][10] Group 2 - Economic growth is projected to steadily decline, with GDP growth expected at 5.0% for 2025, and 4.6% for Q4 2025 [10][11] - Consumer retail sales are forecasted to grow by 3.8% for the year, with a significant slowdown in investment across various sectors, particularly in real estate, which is expected to decline by 14.3% [10][11] - The report highlights that while exports are expected to maintain a high level of activity, a slight decline in growth is anticipated in Q4 due to high base effects from the previous year [19][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the anticipated recovery of the RMB exchange rate, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may attract foreign capital inflows [42][61] - It notes that the central bank has a clear intention to guide the RMB towards appreciation, which is crucial for maintaining market liquidity [47][61] - The report also indicates that the RMB's appreciation could lead to increased foreign investment in domestic stocks, enhancing overall market liquidity [61][62]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "advanced" in investment transcends mere technology, embodying a depth of understanding and foresight in industry trends, company barriers, and global competitiveness [1] Group 1: Understanding "Advanced" - The definition of "advanced" encompasses multiple dimensions, including the industry lifecycle stage, company barriers, profitability, and global competitiveness [1][2] - The industry must be in a growth phase with significant market potential for a company to be considered advanced [2] - A company's competitive barriers, which may arise from technological breakthroughs or customer relationships, are crucial for maintaining an advantageous position in the market [2][3] Group 2: Profitability and Global Competitiveness - Strong profitability is a financial manifestation of advanced status, with a focus on companies that can escape homogenized competition and price wars through genuine innovation [3] - The ultimate test of advanced status is a company's ability to compete on a global scale, integrating into global supply chains and competing with industry giants [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves a "three-layer screening" approach to identify and dynamically allocate opportunities [4][5] - The first layer focuses on major industry trends that can significantly alter lifestyles, such as AI and renewable energy, which present long-term investment opportunities [4] - The second layer targets traditional manufacturing and cyclical growth sectors when major industry opportunities are absent, identifying turning points based on supply and demand changes [4] - The third layer involves investing in high-quality companies with reasonable valuations during stable cycles to benefit from steady earnings growth [5] Group 4: Market Insights and Focus Areas - The current market is characterized by rapid sector rotation, yet the underlying trend favors strong industry directions, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals and AI [7] - The AI industry is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth, particularly in hardware infrastructure [7] - Within the semiconductor sector, the focus is on wafer manufacturing due to high barriers and ongoing demand, while also monitoring promising areas in chip design [8]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "advanced" in investment transcends technology, representing a depth of understanding and foresight in industry trends, company barriers, and global competitiveness [1] Group 1: Understanding "Advanced" Manufacturing - "Advanced" is broken down into four interconnected dimensions: industry growth stage, competitive barriers, profitability, and global competitiveness [3][4] - The industry must be in a growth phase with significant market potential for a company to be considered advanced [3] - Companies must establish sufficient competitive barriers, which can stem from technological breakthroughs, channel control, or customer relationships [4] Group 2: Profitability and Global Competitiveness - Strong profitability is a financial manifestation of advanced manufacturing, focusing on companies that avoid homogenized competition and price wars [4] - The ultimate test of advanced manufacturing is the ability to compete on a global scale, integrating into global supply chains and competing with industry giants [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves a "three-layer screening" approach to identify and dynamically allocate opportunities [5][6] - The first layer focuses on major industry trends that can significantly alter lifestyles, such as mobile internet and AI, which are expected to yield substantial returns [5] - The second layer targets traditional manufacturing and cyclical growth sectors when no major industry opportunities are present [5] - The third layer involves investing in high-quality companies with reasonable valuations during stable cycles [6] Group 4: AI and Semiconductor Investment Opportunities - The AI industry is viewed as a long-term investment opportunity, with the potential to rival the mobile internet wave [7] - Within the AI sector, hardware infrastructure, particularly overseas computing chains, is highlighted as a promising area due to its growth potential and favorable market conditions [7] - In the semiconductor sector, the focus is on wafer manufacturing, which is characterized by high barriers and sustained demand [8] Group 5: Long-term Value Discovery - Technology investment is framed as a marathon focused on discovering long-term value rather than chasing short-term trends [9] - The management strategy emphasizes core positions in overseas computing chains while monitoring the fundamentals of secondary companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "advanced" in investment transcends mere technology, embodying a depth of understanding and foresight in industry trends, company barriers, and global competitiveness [1][2] Understanding "Advanced" in Four Dimensions - The first dimension is the industry stage, where true advanced manufacturing should be in a growth phase with significant market potential, rather than in a stable or declining phase [2] - The second dimension focuses on the competitive barriers a company has established, which may arise from technological breakthroughs, channel control, or customer relationships [2] - The third dimension is the company's profitability, emphasizing the importance of escaping homogenized competition and price wars to achieve premium pricing through genuine innovation [2] - The fourth dimension assesses global competitiveness, where companies must integrate into global supply chains and compete directly with international giants to be considered truly advanced [2] Three-Layer Screening and Dynamic Validation - The first layer of the investment strategy involves identifying major industry trends that can significantly alter human lifestyles, such as mobile internet, AI, and new energy [3] - The second layer focuses on traditional manufacturing and cyclical growth sectors when no major industry opportunities are present, identifying turning points in supply and demand [3] - The third layer involves investing in high-quality companies with reasonable valuations during stable cycles to benefit from steady earnings growth [3] Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes a balance between offensive and defensive strategies, with a focus on industry concentration when clear trends are identified, and diversification when uncertainties arise [4] - The approach also includes avoiding investments in themes lacking performance support, ensuring that valuations remain within acceptable ranges [4] Long-Term Opportunities in AI Investment - The market has shown a preference for strong industry trends, with innovative pharmaceuticals and AI being recognized as the two most sustainable directions this year [4] - The AI industry is viewed as a potential investment opportunity comparable to the mobile internet wave, currently in its early stages with no breakout applications yet [5] Focus Areas within AI and Semiconductor Sectors - Within the AI industry, the hardware infrastructure, particularly overseas computing chains, is highlighted as having significant growth potential and favorable market conditions [5] - In the semiconductor sector, the current cycle is characterized as relatively weak, driven by AI, with a focus on wafer manufacturing due to its high barriers and ongoing demand [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Automotive Sector Key Points - The automotive sector is experiencing a divergence in profitability, with strong performers like BYD and Geely expected to recover in Q3, while companies like Changan and BYD face challenges due to increased sales and R&D expenses [1][2] - The overall performance of the automotive sector in Q2 showed improvement in retail and wholesale data compared to Q1, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle penetration, surpassing 50% [1][8] - Concerns regarding the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax and subsidy cuts are present, but stable pricing and new model launches may drive demand [1][5] Company-Specific Insights - **BYD**: Expected to see better profitability recovery in Q3, with a focus on sales alpha without significant price wars [2] - **Geely**: Q2 operating profit was 31.8 billion yuan, with new models expected to launch in Q3 and Q4, aiming for a profit target of 20 billion yuan for the year [13] - **Li Auto**: Q2 performance was under pressure with sales of approximately 110,000 vehicles, but Q3 delivery is expected to be between 90,000 and 95,000 vehicles [9] - **Great Wall Motors**: Q2 net profit was approximately 4.6 billion yuan, with new product cycles expected to provide opportunities [12] - **Xpeng Motors**: Q2 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a gross margin over 14%, and profitability expected in Q4 2025 [16] Automotive Parts Sector Key Points - The automotive parts sector showed moderate growth in Q2, with a self-owned market share reaching 68.5% [19] - Companies like Fuyao Glass and Huguang Electronics exceeded expectations due to customer structure optimization and scale effects [3][19] - The overall revenue growth of the parts sector was 7.6% year-on-year, lagging behind the 13% growth in passenger vehicle wholesale sales [19] Company-Specific Insights - **Fuyao Glass**: Expected to see improved profitability in H2 2025 due to enhanced production efficiency and increased industry demand [20] - **Huguang Electronics**: Q2 performance exceeded market expectations, with significant contributions from new models [21] - **Yuanpu**: Anticipated to see sustained growth in H2 2025, with new business developments in the seating assembly and robotics sectors [22] Robotics Industry Key Points - The robotics industry has a positive outlook, driven by new technology iterations and upgrades in customer relationships among several companies [6][7] - Companies like Haoneng Fuda and Wuxi Zhenhua are highlighted for their strong performance and advantageous customer structures [6] Heavy Truck Sector Key Points - The heavy truck sector's performance in Q2 was in line with expectations, but profitability did not show significant surprises due to intense competition [31] - The sector is viewed as defensive, with steady but slow growth anticipated, supported by high dividend rates [31][32] Financial Automotive Sector Key Points - Financial Automotive reported a positive performance in Q2, marking a significant turnaround in profitability [33] - The company aims to improve its profitability to match competitors, indicating substantial growth potential if successful [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting the potential of humanoid robots and related technologies [2][9]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing a significant transformation, moving from passive execution to active engagement, driven by events like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference and the World Robot Conference [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for new applications and orders in the robotics sector, suggesting a bullish outlook for companies involved in humanoid robotics [7][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 9.0%, a 3-month increase of 10.2%, and a 12-month increase of 59.8%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Double Lin Co., Ltd.** (300100.SZ) with a target price of 50.84 and an EPS forecast of 1.24 for 2024 [12]. - **Redik** (300652.SZ) with a target price of 63.03 and an EPS forecast of 1.22 for 2024 [12]. - **Jianghuai Automobile** (600418.SH) with a target price of 52.48 and an EPS forecast of 0.12 for 2024 [12]. - **Sailis** (601127.SH) with a target price of 135.87 and an EPS forecast of 3.84 for 2024 [12]. - **Beite Technology** (603009.SH) with a target price of 49.80 and an EPS forecast of 0.20 for 2024 [12]. - **New Spring Co., Ltd.** (603179.SH) with a target price of 48.88 and an EPS forecast of 2.28 for 2024 [12]. - **Rongtai Co., Ltd.** (605133.SH) with a target price of 38.92 and an EPS forecast of 0.88 for 2024 [12]. - **Kait Co., Ltd.** (832978.BJ) with a target price of 32.96 and an EPS forecast of 0.82 for 2024 [12]. - **Jun Chuang Technology** (833533.BJ) with a target price of 35.85 and an EPS forecast of 1.18 for 2024 [12]. - **Yishi Precision** (836221.BJ) with a target price of 21.74 and an EPS forecast of 0.56 for 2024 [12]. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes that the average daily retail of passenger cars in early August was 45,200 units, a 4% decrease year-on-year but a 6% increase compared to the previous month [40][41]. - The wholesale of passenger cars for the first ten days of August was 403,000 units, reflecting a 16% year-on-year increase [41]. Company Announcements and Industry News - The report highlights the first World Humanoid Robot Games, showcasing over 500 robots from 16 countries, indicating a growing interest and investment in humanoid robotics [6][9]. - The introduction of the Genie Envisioner platform by Zhiyuan Robotics, which integrates various technologies for robot control, marks a significant advancement in the field [8][9].