和大家报告一下，经过努力的刷刷刷，今天早上，抢到两瓶1499的茅子，这样，如果春节前，上证站上4200点，咱们就在公众号里抽一瓶茅子， 正所谓 今日 痛饮庆功酒 ，不回5000点誓不休。 如果今年到4500点，就把剩下一瓶也抽了，大家说吼不吼 。 ...... 说回A股。 今天市场非常之强，涨到大家有点神情恍惚——很多时候，牛市这个东西，就是怕它不来，又怕它乱来。 市场之强，可以用三张图描绘一下。 第一张 ，下图，是2005年以来的二十年中，头两个交易日，wind全A的涨幅统计，可以看到，26年的表现，仅次于2009年——毫无疑问，史上最强之一的 开门红，正在进行中。 | 交易日 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | wind全A | -0.29% | 3.09% | 1.72% | 2.68% | 7.16% | 0.06% | 1.15% ...

今天所有人都沉浸在股市开门红的喜悦中，就王石可能心情有点糟糕，关于田女士大量删除和老王的合影，并离婚的消息，传得沸沸扬扬。 虽然当事人已经辟了谣，但老王肯定是高兴不太起来的。 我个人觉得，这几年看下来，田女士和老王之间， 有点像MCN公司的负责人，和旗下IP的关系 ，田女士负责掌舵、找项目，然后贴到老王这个 IP上去，比如，do脸这个事，就属于MCN对IP的一种打磨。 你再看老王做的个别项目，比如卖燕窝那事儿，很明显就是女性老板的视角，压根没想过老王这个IP适不适合卖燕窝，失败也是明摆着的事。 而老王这个IP，偶尔能自带点流量，比如，上次老王和田女士采访段永平，老段昨天就发了个雪球帖子，说就是为了还个人情——很显然，就是 MCN老板看到雪球的专访火了，觉得可以复刻一下，然后让旗下的IP自己去勾兑了一下，想找个爆点。 但这些年，这一IP相关的项目，无一例外都折戟了，这肯定就让MCN的老板觉得很窝火——我这么牛逼的策划，怎么就炒不火你？看来是IP本身 有问题啊。 我个人对这事，有点衍生的理解。 大家都喜欢有"能力"的人，也都喜欢有"野心"、有"进取心"的人。 但是， 大家不太喜欢的，是有野心但是没能力的人，或者说 ...

29日早盘，港股汽车产业链全线走高，整车、汽车零部件表现活跃，中证港股通汽车产业指数领涨超2%。成份股大面积飘红，佑驾创新涨超 16%，浙江世宝涨超8%，小鹏汽车、吉利汽车、比亚迪股份均涨超5%。热门ETF方面，今日上市首秀的港股通汽车ETF华宝（520780）场内 一举飙升超2%，实时成交额近2亿元领跑同类。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 ▼ | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 旁加 九转 画线 工具 Φ ② | > | | N港股通汽车ETF华宝 O | 520780 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 520780[N]巷股通汽车ETF华宝] 10:19 价 1.027 涨跌 0.026(2.60%) 均价 1.014 成交 ... | | | | | | +0.026 +2.60% | | 1.031 | | | | | | | | 2.000% | 1.027 | | | | | Marman | | | | | | | | SSE CNY ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 12 月 18 日 整车投资策略更新；福达股份更新 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W136） 本期投资提示： 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 《科技赋能下的换道再提速——2026 年 汽车行业投资策略》 2025/11/18 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 ⚫ 整车投资策略更新：考虑到近期市场出现两大关键变化，我们更新了 2026 年整车投资 策略。一是 2025 年第四季度的补贴未如期兑现且明年"两新补贴"政策细节有调整； 二是国家市监总局就《汽车行业价格行为合规指南（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见，有 望对无序价格战形成预防性震慑，中低端、毛利微薄的车企可能面临更大生存压力。基 于此，我们调整后的投资策略核心是聚焦中 ...

智通财经APP获悉，西部证券发布研报称，整车层面2026年核心投资方向在于出口及中高端化，重点关 注整车企业入局人形机器人业务。零部件方面核心投资方向为一体两翼，一体为聚焦主业，核心在于智 能化，出口业务或者其它国产化替代加速的细分板块，两翼则为人形机器人与AIDC相关(液冷或服务器 电源)的泛AI新业务，展翼而起，新业务有望提升资本市场对龙头公司未来发展成长的预期。 西部证券主要观点如下： 从整车竞争来看，该行认为2026年以旧换新补贴不排除金额下降，同时叠加新能源车购置税补贴从10% 降低至5%，市场竞争将会更加激烈。但新能源优质供给继续增加，该行依然看好新能源车渗透率继续 提升。2025年15万以下价格带销量快速增长，在当前时点，该行认为其增长趋势在2026年补贴减少的状 态下或有一定的不确定性，而中高价格带则在2026年有望随着宏观经济和消费复苏稳健增长。同时，该 行认为2025年整车出口好于预期，新能源车出口高增，海外丰厚的利润也为国内车企的盈利提升提供动 力。展望2026，欧洲、俄罗斯、巴西、中东、北非等地区依然具有增长潜力，该行认为国内车企的海外 销量增长还能够维持。 零部件方面，该行认为智能化 ...

中信建投（601066）发布研报称，当前市场对汽车明年刺激政策及产销总量预期较弱，汽车顺周期属性 弱化，目前来看预期或已见底，科技属性下机器人及无人驾驶等成长方向仍是核心主线。机器人当前行 情仍处于预期整固后的去伪存真阶段，产业在0-1的趋势兑现前夕，建议积极布局配置高胜率及技术升 级环节。 中信建投主要观点如下： 整车板块，本周中央经济工作会议指出坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场，优化"两新"政策实施，明确 2026年延续国补政策。近期头部车企销量环比走弱，前期市场预期年末抢装下的"翘尾效应"并未兑现， 部分地区以旧换新补贴已暂停，市场情绪处于低位。我们仍然看好自主乘用车高端化、强势新车周期和 新能源出海头部车企。 机器人板块，当前时点坚定看多。板块自11月末底部震荡反弹，核心交易的是特斯拉产业链小批量(百 台级)订单落地等新进展催化，上周美国人形机器人政策扶持也对行情形成支撑，GaN等新技术应用引 发市场关注。后续新的节点兑现是行情延续关键，包括：12月定点陆续落地，25Q1Gen3定型发布，Q2 进入小批量，下半年进入规模量产阶段等;此外，宇树上市申报或也将成为重要事件催化。当前行情仍 处于预期整固后的去 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 上周港股上下波动。恒生指数及国企指数最终分别收报 26,085 点及 9,198 点，全周上升 0.9%及 0.8%。上周港股成交合共 9,332 亿港元，较前周的 10,918 亿港元，下跌 14.5%，或反映投资者信心波动。分类指数方面，原材料、工业及能源指数 全周分别上升 10.0%、3.4%、3.1%；医疗保健、地产建筑及必需性消费则分别下跌 0.8%、0.2%及 0.2%。蓝筹个股方面， 紫金矿业(2899 HK)及中国宏桥(1378 HK)领涨，全周分别上升 12.1%及 9.3%；申洲国际(2313 HK)及美团(3690 HK)领跌， 全周分别下跌 6.9%及 3.4%。 有色金属及黄金类港股表现突出，估计(一)受到市场预期铜供应紧张，伦敦期铜价上涨至 11,620 美元近年新高水平； (二)以及因特朗普表示已经有下任联储局主席人选后，投资者对美国降息预期升温。可是不可排除部分投资者趁本周中 段美国议息前，减持部分相关港股以锁定利润的可能性。另一方面，近期半导体/AI 板块受到资本市场关注，哪些企业最 终成功突围仍待观察，但是无论如何， ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with external markets performing well while the A-share market is underperforming [1] - In the materials sector, silicon materials and lithium mines have seen a surge but are now experiencing a pullback, indicating that prices may have risen too high [1] - The white liquor sector experienced a decline after a previous surge, with poor sales fundamentals leading to a lack of interest in further investments [2] Group 2 - The automotive sector reported a significant increase in production and sales, exceeding 3 million units in October, but the production outpacing sales may lead to a price war [3] - The excess inventory in the automotive sector raises concerns about future demand and pricing strategies [3] - The market's volatility is testing investors' patience and confidence, highlighting the challenges of navigating current market conditions [3]

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant divergence in performance between passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles, particularly heavy trucks [1][2][3] Key Insights and Arguments Passenger Vehicle Market - The passenger vehicle market is expected to face negative growth in Q4 2025 due to high base effects from the previous year and reduced subsidies [1][3] - The "trade-in" policy has weakened, with subsidies dropping from approximately 150 billion RMB in Q4 2024 to 65 billion RMB in Q5 2025, leading to significant sales pressure [3] - The overall outlook for 2026 remains cautious, with expectations of continued pressure on the passenger vehicle market, although government support may be introduced to mitigate drastic declines [3][11] Commercial Vehicle Market - The heavy truck market showed strong performance in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 58% in wholesale and 61% in insurance, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 15% in Q4 [3][4] - The recovery in the heavy truck market is attributed to historical cycle rebounds and favorable exports outside of Russia [4][10] Fund Holdings and Market Sentiment - There has been a significant reduction in fund holdings in the automotive sector, with the top ten holdings in the automotive sector dropping from 6.1% to 3.2% from Q2 to Q3 2025 [5][6] - This reduction reflects a pessimistic market sentiment regarding the fundamentals of the passenger vehicle sector, with expectations of further reductions in Q4 2025 [5] Component Sector Performance - The components sector has shown a clear divergence, with traditional component companies expected to improve in Q4, while intelligent component companies like Huayang and Junsheng continue to show positive trends [1][8] - Some companies, such as Bojun, have achieved unexpected growth, while others like Top and New Spring face ongoing pressures [8] Future Trends and Opportunities - The development of autonomous driving technology is progressing, with L2 standards under consultation and L3 standards expected soon, which may positively impact related sectors [12] - The automotive industry is expected to see a shift in focus towards robotics and intelligent driving themes, which could become market hotspots [11] Notable Companies and Models Passenger Vehicle Brands - Jianghuai Automobile is highlighted for its potential in the ultra-luxury vehicle segment, with new models expected to drive performance [13] - Other brands such as Leap Motor, Geely, SAIC, and Great Wall are also noted for new opportunities [13] Component Companies - Companies like Bojun, Wuxi Zhenhua, and Songyuan are recommended for their strong growth potential and relatively low valuations [14] - In the heavy truck sector, companies like Weichai and Foton are expected to perform well, while Yutong is noted for its investment value in the bus segment [15] Conclusion - The automotive industry is navigating a challenging environment with diverging trends between passenger and commercial vehicles. The focus on new technologies and strategic investments in promising companies will be crucial for navigating the upcoming market conditions [16]

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive industry in Q3 2025 showed overall performance below expectations, primarily due to a slowdown in industry growth, negative profit contributions, and a slowdown in innovation across various price segments [1][4] - The electric vehicle (EV) sector's benefits are slightly declining, but resilience remains strong, particularly in commercial vehicles and motorcycles, with buses performing better than expected [2] Key Points on Vehicle Segments Passenger Vehicles - BYD's price cuts led to market fluctuations, and new models failed to significantly boost market confidence, with companies like Li Auto and BYD experiencing a decline in wholesale volumes [1][4] - Leading companies such as Xiaopeng, NIO, and Geely performed relatively well despite the overall market challenges [1] Commercial Vehicles - The bus segment showed significant recovery, with Yutong's performance exceeding expectations, and a notable increase in exports [3][19] - Heavy-duty trucks (重卡) saw impressive growth in both domestic and export sales, with leading companies reporting year-on-year increases of 60% to over 90% [3][21][23] Financial Performance Parts Segment - The parts segment reported revenue of 394.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 6.95% [5][8] - Financial metrics showed a net profit margin increase to 6.95%, while the expense ratio was 11.75%, reflecting a rise in financial costs due to exchange losses [5][9] Profitability Trends - There was a noticeable divergence in profitability among parts companies, with some like Huayu Automotive improving margins due to better customer structure and overseas business [1][13] - Companies like Desay SV suffered revenue declines due to reliance on major clients like Li Auto, while others like Huayang benefited from overall sales increases [13][14] Market Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see a surge in sales due to the impending reduction of subsidy policies, with a potential price recovery following a period of price competition [6][12] - The outlook for the heavy-duty truck sector remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 driven by domestic demand and favorable policies [27] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector performed well in the stock market, driven by expectations surrounding advancements in robotics technology, particularly influenced by Elon Musk's initiatives [10][11] - Companies like Top Group and Junsheng showed strong performance in assembly segments, contributing to valuation increases [10] Conclusion - The automotive industry is navigating a transitional phase towards electrification, intelligence, and globalization, with specific segments like heavy-duty trucks and robotics showing promising growth potential [2][12][27] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with strong growth prospects in the smart vehicle and robotics sectors, as well as established players in the traditional vehicle market [2]