今年以来，华尔街对冲基金通过大举做空软件股已获利240亿美元，其背后的核心驱动力是市场日益担 忧AI技术的进步将颠覆传统软件商业模式，导致行业遭受重创。 眼下，这场抛售潮正在加速蔓延。2月4日，据彭博援引S3 Partners的数据显示，在做空者的猛烈攻势 下，软件行业整体市值年内已蒸发1万亿美元。华尔街主要对冲基金的消息人士透露，投资者正集中火 力做空那些提供基础自动化服务、易被新AI工具复制和替代的公司。 与此同时，做空者并未在股价下跌中收手，反而将其视为"下跌中的飞刀"，进一步加大了做空押注。 DA Davidson分析师Gil Luria指出，目前对冲基金几乎都在净做空软件行业。 软件股的暴跌已引发市场广泛的动荡。iShares科技软件ETF本周下跌8%，今年累计跌幅超过21%，较去 年9月创下的历史高点已下挫30%。微软和甲骨文今年分别下跌15%和25%，Salesforce、Adobe和 ServiceNow跌幅均超过20%。 空头获利丰厚，瞄准"易被替代"标的 在ETF持仓中，做空比例最高的个股集中度明显。TeraWulf目前有超过35%的流通股被做空，Asana的这 一比例为25%。此外，Dr ...

Shares of publicly traded Bitcoin miners are plummeting as Bitcoin marked a new 15-month low price, dipping to $72,185 on Wednesday—now down nearly 20% over the last week. Major BTC mining firms MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) have seen their shares dip 11.6% and 10% respectively on the day to $7.99 and $13.78. Meanwhile, Hut 8 (HUT) and Cipher Mining (CIFR) have fallen even further, dropping nearly 14.3% and 20.76% since the opening bell to $50.60 and $12.92, respectively.  The miners' drop ...

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan updated financial models for North American Bitcoin miners, adjusting price targets based on network difficulty and cryptocurrency price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Mining Revenue Projections - Analysts project a modest decline in bitcoin mining revenue for Q4 2025, with estimates for mined bitcoin increasing by a low single-digit percentage due to slower network hashrate growth, while lower realized bitcoin prices offset production gains [2] Group 2: Company Ratings and Price Targets - Cipher Mining (NASDAQ: CIFR) received an overweight rating with an $18 price target, reflecting its power pipeline and pivot toward AI/HPC, alongside a $2 billion debt offering and a 200-megawatt site acquisition in Ohio expected to come online in late 2027 [3] - CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) holds an overweight rating with a $14 price target, emphasizing its acquisition strategy, including two sites in Texas and ongoing negotiations for potential AI/HPC tenants [4] - Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) maintains an overweight rating with a $20 price target, focusing on the capacity potential at its 1 GW Corsicana facility, assuming 600 megawatts of colocation deals by late 2026 [5] - Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ: MARA) is rated overweight with a $13 price target, reflecting its revised year-end 2025 hashrate goal of 75 EH/s [5] - Iris Energy (NASDAQ: IREN) holds an underweight rating with a $39 price target, as the current valuation of approximately $54 is viewed as stretched, factoring in undeveloped site deals that have not materialized [6] Group 3: Regulatory Considerations - J.P. Morgan highlighted an ERCOT proposal that could impact bitcoin miners in Texas, with an interconnection backlog exceeding 250 gigawatts and proposed rules including a "use it or lose it" clause subject to annual reviews, to be presented to state regulators on February 20 [7] - Investors are advised to monitor management commentary from CleanSpark and IREN regarding the ERCOT rule during their earnings report on February 5 [7]

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency concept stocks experienced significant declines, with mining companies leading the drop [1] - IREN Ltd (IREN.US) fell nearly 11%, Hut8 (HUT.US) dropped over 9%, Cipher Mining (CIFR.US) decreased nearly 9%, and TeraWulf (WULF.US) declined over 8% [1] - Other stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) and Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US) also saw declines of over 3% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin plummeted over 4%, falling below $75,000 [1] - Ethereum dropped more than 5%, trading at $2,181.25 [1]

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency stocks experienced significant declines, with mining companies leading the drop [1] - IREN Ltd (IREN.US) fell nearly 11%, Hut 8 (HUT.US) dropped over 9%, Cipher Mining (CIFR.US) decreased nearly 9%, and TeraWulf (WULF.US) declined over 8% [1] - Other cryptocurrency-related stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR.US) and Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US) also saw declines of over 3% [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin plummeted over 4%, falling below $75,000, while Ethereum dropped more than 5%, trading at $2,181.25 [1]

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline of 2% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $77,100 after a previous rise of approximately 7% from lows near $74,000 [1] - Ether (ETH) is down 4.7%, trading at $2,260 [1] - The selloff in cryptocurrencies coincides with strong gains in gold and silver, indicating a rebound from previous price drops [1] Stock Performance - U.S. stocks, particularly AI-related companies, are declining, with notable drops in Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU), and Microsoft (MSTR), all down by 3%-5% [2] - The largest publicly traded bitcoin holder, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is also experiencing losses, down more than 2% [2] - Coinbase (COIN) and Bullish (BLSH) are similarly down by comparable amounts [2] Company-Specific Developments - Galaxy Digital (GLXY) shares have fallen over 12% following disappointing fourth-quarter results [3] - Stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) has also seen a decline of 3.5% [3] - Bitcoin miners transitioning to AI infrastructure, such as TeraWulf (WULF), are seeing gains, with TeraWulf up 12% after acquiring two industrial sites that could double its power capacity to 2.8 gigawatts [4] - Cipher Mining (CIFR) shares increased by 4% after announcing plans to raise $2 billion in the junk bond market for its Black Pearl data center in Texas, which will provide 300 megawatts of capacity under a long-term lease with Amazon Web Services [4] Market Sentiment - Options flows indicate that traders are preparing for a short-lived bounce from weekend lows below $75,000, reflecting a lack of demand for upside exposure [5] - Heavy demand for near-term downside protection has led to a distortion in the options market, with short-dated volatility exceeding longer-dated contracts, a situation known as backwardation [6] - Analysts are monitoring when volatility stabilizes and the options curve normalizes back into contango as a potential signal for local lows [6]

Market Reaction - Crypto-related U.S. equities experienced a decline in pre-market trading following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, leading to a significant selloff in the crypto market over the weekend [1] - Major publicly traded bitcoin holders, such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), saw a drop of more than 6%, while Galaxy Digital (GLXY) fell over 7% [2] Volatility and Market Indicators - The Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) increased by 10% on the day, indicating rising market volatility [3] - The Volmex implied volatility index surged from 40 to 50 over the past week, reflecting heightened market uncertainty and expectations of larger price movements [3] Asset Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $77,000 after a low of $74,500, showing a slight increase of around 1% on the day [4] - Precious metals faced pressure, with gold and silver both declining by 4%, trading at $4,700 and $82 per ounce, respectively [4] - West Texas Intermediate oil futures fell by 5% to $62 a barrel [4] Currency Dynamics - The DXY index, which measures the dollar's strength against major currencies, slightly retreated to 97, indicating an inverse relationship with bitcoin as the dollar eases [5]

Core Viewpoint - IREN Limited is expected to report significant revenue growth of 92.42% year-over-year for Q2 fiscal 2026, but faces a widening bottom-line loss, indicating deteriorating earnings quality compared to the previous year [1][7]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 fiscal 2026 revenues is $230.12 million, reflecting a substantial increase from the previous year [1]. - The consensus estimate for the bottom-line loss is 9 cents, which has widened by two cents over the past month, contrasting with earnings of 9 cents in the same quarter last year [1]. - Over the last four quarters, IREN has missed earnings expectations three times, with an average negative earnings surprise of 26.52% [2]. Earnings Expectations - IREN currently has an Earnings ESP of -39.29% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [4][3]. - The company’s earnings quality is expected to weaken due to the absence of unrealized gains that previously inflated net income and EBITDA [9]. Operational Factors - IREN is expanding its GPU capacity from 23,000 to a targeted 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026, which is expected to support revenue growth amid rising AI cloud demand [5]. - The company has a strong liquidity position with approximately $1.8 billion in cash, which helps sustain its Bitcoin mining operations despite power cost volatility [6]. Capital Expenditure and Strategy - IREN plans to invest approximately $5.8 billion in GPUs and related infrastructure, which may increase leverage and dilute shareholders [8]. - The company’s capital-intensive expansion strategy poses risks to financial flexibility and performance in the near term [7][17]. Competitive Landscape - IREN faces heightened competition in the AI cloud and HPC sectors from rapidly expanding peers like Applied Digital and TeraWulf, which may impact its growth objectives [16]. - Despite a strong liquidity position and operational momentum, the company’s premium valuation raises downside risk [17]. Stock Performance - IREN's shares have declined 1.5% over the past three months, underperforming the broader Finance sector, which returned 4.3% [10]. - The stock is currently considered overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 8.04, significantly higher than the industry average of 3.03 [12].

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to announce Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair on Friday, replacing Jerome Powell, a development that has unsettled markets and triggered a broad selloff across asset classes. As a result risk sentiment has deteriorated as investors price in potential shifts in monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, the DXY index, which tracks the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, has edged up to 96.6. U.S. Treasury yields are mo ...

Cipher Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:CIFR) is one of the best high short interest stocks with biggest upside potential. On January 27, Keefe Bruyette analyst Stephen Glagola raised the firm’s price target on Cipher Mining to $22 from $13 and kept an Outperform rating due to a positive outlook on the company’s transition into AI infrastructure. The firm updated its financial model ahead of Cipher’s Q4 2025 report to account for favorable hash price trends and the successful execution of its AI colocation strategy, sp ...