盘前市场动向 1. 10月23日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.20%，标普500指数期货跌0.11%，纳指期货跌 0.21%。 | = US 30 | 46,498.50 | 46,615.60 | 46,418.50 | -91.90 | -0.20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6.692.10 | 6,716.60 | 6,682.80 | -7.30 | -0.11% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 24,827.40 | 24,973.10 | 24,799.30 | -51.60 | -0.21% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.15%，英国富时100指数涨0.62%，法国CAC40指数涨0.40%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.30%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24,121.53 | 24,221.46 | 24,037.79 | -36.24 | -0.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 9,574 ...

Core Viewpoint - SAP's shares experienced volatility in early trading following the company's forecast for full-year cloud revenue, which is projected to be at the lower end of its outlook range [1] Company Summary - SAP is identified as Europe's largest software maker [1] - The forecast for cloud revenue indicates potential challenges in meeting market expectations [1]

Core Insights - SAP is positioning itself as a significant player in the enterprise AI space, with CEO Christian Klein stating that AI is the primary driver for customer deals [1] - The company reported a 23% increase in its cloud backlog, reaching €18.8 billion in Q3 [2] - SAP's revenue grew by 7% to €9.08 billion ($10.53 billion), with cloud revenue increasing by 22% due to gains in AI and data cloud market share [3] Financial Performance - SAP's revenue for the upcoming year is largely secured, with 80-85% already accounted for after Q4 [2] - The company is guiding towards the lower end of its cloud revenue forecast for the year, estimating between €21.6 billion and €21.9 billion [4] - Despite initial gains, SAP's shares fell by 2.5% after trading, reflecting a year-to-date decline of 3% [5] Market Position - Deutsche Bank has identified SAP as a "top pick" in the European tech and global software sector, despite the lower guidance for cloud revenue growth [4][5] - The company is navigating challenges such as lengthening deal cycles but continues to execute well in the market [5]

Core Insights - SAP's third-quarter revenue fell short of expectations, with cloud revenue growth at the slowest rate since 2023, but earnings exceeded estimates, increasing by 12% [2] - The company has guided its full-year operating profit to the upper end of its range, indicating a positive outlook despite the lower cloud revenue guidance [2] Financial Performance - Cloud revenue increased by 27%, and the current cloud backlog also grew by 27%, showcasing strong performance in this segment [4] - SAP's core ERP solutions grew by over 30%, indicating market share gains as peers grow in the mid-teens [5] Market Outlook - The pipeline for Q4 is strong, with expectations for significant revenue as many companies are looking to spend their budgets [5] - AI use cases are becoming increasingly relevant, with customers seeking solutions to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce costs [5][7] AI Integration - AI is embedded in every deal in the Q4 pipeline, highlighting its importance in customer decision-making [12] - The company is focusing on delivering AI value creation rather than competing in the infrastructure space, which is seen as a commodity [12][13] Customer Adoption - There is a notable shift in customer sentiment towards cloud solutions, with a consensus that moving to the cloud is essential for accessing innovation and AI capabilities [10] - Customers are increasingly adopting AI tools for practical applications, such as sourcing and procurement, leading to higher usage rates [7] Future Expectations - The order backlog for the next year looks promising, with 80-85% of next year's revenue already secured after Q4 [14] - The company remains optimistic about closing the year strongly, which will positively influence investor outlook for the upcoming year [14]

Core Insights - Vanguard index funds tracking European and international stocks have shown strong performance in 2023, attributed to changes in U.S. trade and fiscal policy [1] - The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF and Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF have gained 29% and 28% year to date, respectively, outperforming the S&P 500 by 15 and 14 percentage points [4][8] - Despite recent outperformance, European and international stocks have historically underperformed U.S. stocks over longer periods [4][8] Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF tracks over 1,200 stocks in major European markets, with significant weight in the U.K., France, and Germany, and sectors like financials, industrials, and healthcare [4] - The ETF has gained 29% year to date, but over the last five years, it has only added 53%, lagging behind the S&P 500 by 43 percentage points [4] - The expense ratio for the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF is 0.06%, significantly lower than the average of 0.81% for similar funds, making it an attractive option for investors [5] Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF measures over 3,800 companies in developed international markets, with a focus on Europe and the Asia-Pacific [7] - This ETF has advanced 28% year to date, also outperforming the S&P 500, but has only gained 46% over the last five years, trailing the S&P 500 by 50 percentage points [8] - The expense ratio for this ETF is 0.03%, compared to an average of 0.85% for similar funds, providing a cost-effective option for diversified international exposure [9] Market Trends and Analysis - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by about 11% in the first half of the year, benefiting international stock investments when measured in U.S. dollars [11] - Diverging monetary policies, with the European Central Bank cutting rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve held steady, have influenced investor preferences towards international equities [12] - Despite recent trends favoring international stocks, analysts predict that U.S. equities will continue to outperform, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 7% advance for the S&P 500 over the next year [14]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has eased [2][4] - **Silver**: Spot contradictions have eased, with prices rising and then falling [2][5] - **Copper**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][9] - **Zinc**: Ranging within a certain interval [2][12] - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18] - **Aluminum**: The trend is oscillating and slightly bullish; Alumina is grinding at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - **Nickel**: In the short - term, there is a narrow - range oscillation, and contradictions are still accumulating [2][23] - **Stainless Steel**: It is difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limit the downside space [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The closing prices of domestic and international gold - related contracts generally declined. For example, the daily decline of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 4.17%, and the decline of Comex Gold 2512 was 0.53%. ETF holdings decreased, and inventory increased slightly. There were multiple macro - news such as Trump canceling the meeting with Putin and the Fed's plan to relax bank capital requirements [5] - **Silver**: The daily decline of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 3.42%, and the night - session showed a slight increase. Inventory decreased significantly. Spot contradictions eased, and prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling [5] Copper - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased slightly by 0.02%. Trading volume and open interest changed, and inventory decreased. For example, Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,125 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons [9] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper decreased by 400 yuan/ton. There were various macro and industrial news, such as the strong earnings season on Wall Street and Peru's decline in copper production [9][11] Zinc - **Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.14%. Inventory decreased, and the LME zinc cash - 3M premium increased significantly. There were news such as the bankruptcy of PrimaLend in the secondary lending market [12][13] Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased slightly by 0.09%. Inventory decreased significantly, with Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreasing by 3156 tons and LME lead inventory decreasing by 3175 tons. There were news about the strong earnings season on Wall Street and the US government shutdown [16] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.29%. The price of SMM 1 tin ingot increased by 7,000 yuan/ton. Inventory increased slightly, and there were multiple macro - news [18][19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4887.86 yuan/ton, showing an increase. There were news such as the US government shutdown and the India - US trade agreement [21][22] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased slightly. It was in a state of grinding at the bottom [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the ADC12 theoretical profit increased [21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly. There were events such as the Indonesian government taking over a nickel mine area and China suspending a non - official subsidy for Russian nickel imports [23][24] - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract increased slightly. It was difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limited the downside space [23]

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部磨盘 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 14 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面较抗跌 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 2 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, cloud revenue rose by 27%, maintaining over 25% growth for five consecutive quarters, with a solid cloud gross margin of approximately 75% [6][22] - Total revenue increased by 11% to €9.1 billion, with the share of predictable revenue rising by two percentage points to 87% [7][24] - Current cloud backlog increased by 27%, exceeding €18.8 billion [22] - Free cash flow increased by 5% to €1.3 billion, while operating profit rose by 19% to €2.6 billion [7][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cloud ERP suite achieved its 15th consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%, representing 87% of cloud revenues and over 100% of the year-over-year increase in cloud revenues [20][22] - Software licenses revenue decreased by 42% in Q3 [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cloud revenue performance was particularly strong in APJ and EMEA regions, with Brazil, France, Germany, India, Italy, and South Korea showing outstanding performance [24] - The U.S. public sector business is starting to pick up again, with a major framework contract awarded to SAP by the U.S. government [10][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to accelerate total revenue growth through 2027, leveraging AI as a key enabler of growth [5][19] - SAP's strategy focuses on providing software and cloud solutions without building infrastructure, partnering with strong cloud infrastructure partners instead [11][63] - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities, emphasizing the integration of AI with business processes and contextual data to create high-value use cases [12][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the Q4 pipeline, noting that many stalled deals are now returning, particularly in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing [32][34] - The company anticipates reaching the lower end of its cloud revenue outlook for fiscal year 2025 due to delayed bookings but expects to exceed its operating profit outlook [26][25] Other Important Information - SAP closed its acquisition of SmartRecruiters, enhancing its capabilities in talent acquisition [22] - The company is seeing significant interest in its new software and cloud offerings for highly regulated customers and governments [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand backdrop in U.S. public sector and manufacturing - Management noted positive early signs in the U.S. public sector and a strong Q4 pipeline, with many deals returning [32][34] Question: Insights on backlog and cloud revenue expectations - Management expressed confidence in achieving a good Q4 and picking up stalled pipeline deals, indicating optimism for cloud revenue growth [36][54] Question: Uptake of SAP ERP transition option - Management highlighted positive momentum in the pipeline and noted that the transition option is helping customers move to the cloud [40][41] Question: Competitive position versus Oracle - Management emphasized that SAP's strategy remains effective, focusing on value creation rather than infrastructure scaling [63][66] Question: Free cash flow guidance and conversion - Management indicated that Q4 free cash flow may be impacted by tax cash out phasing and other working capital factors [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, cloud revenue rose by 27%, maintaining over 25% growth for five consecutive quarters, with a solid cloud gross margin of approximately 75% [6][22] - Total revenue increased by 11% to EUR 9.1 billion, with the share of predictable revenue rising by 2 percentage points to 87% [7][22] - Current cloud backlog increased by 27% to exceed EUR 18.8 billion [22] - Free cash flow increased by 5% to EUR 1.3 billion, while operating profit rose by 19% to EUR 2.6 billion [7][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cloud ERP suite achieved its 15th consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 30%, representing 87% of cloud revenues and over 100% of the year-over-year increase in cloud revenues [20][22] - Software licenses revenue decreased by 42% in Q3 [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cloud revenue performance was particularly strong in the APJ and EMEA regions, with Brazil, France, Germany, India, Italy, and South Korea showing outstanding performance [23] - The U.S. public sector business is starting to pick up again, with a major framework contract awarded to SAP by the U.S. Army [10][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to accelerate total revenue growth through 2027, leveraging AI as a key enabler for growth [5][19] - SAP's strategy focuses on providing software and cloud solutions without building infrastructure, partnering with cloud infrastructure providers instead [11][66] - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities by integrating AI into business processes and developing AI agents to automate and optimize operations [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the Q4 pipeline, noting that many stalled deals are now progressing, particularly in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing [32][34] - The company anticipates reaching the lower end of its cloud revenue outlook for fiscal year 2025 due to delayed bookings but expects to exceed previous targets for free cash flow [26][25] Other Important Information - SAP closed its acquisition of SmartRecruiters, enhancing its capabilities in talent acquisition [22] - The company is focusing on high-value AI use cases, emphasizing the importance of combining large language models with business processes and contextual data [12][49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand backdrop and backlog - Management noted positive early signs in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing, with a strong Q4 pipeline [32][34] Question: Delay in backlog and cloud revenue expectations - Management expressed confidence in achieving a good Q4 and picking up stalled pipeline deals [36][54] Question: Uptake of SAP ERP transition option - Management indicated positive momentum in the pipeline, with high interest in the transition option [40][41] Question: Competitive position versus Oracle - Management emphasized the strength of SAP's software and cloud offerings, stating that their strategy is proven and effective [62][66] Question: Free cash flow guidance - Management highlighted that Q4 cash flow may be impacted by tax payments and working capital fluctuations, but remains confident in achieving the target [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3, cloud revenue rose by 27%, marking five consecutive quarters of growth exceeding 25% [7][8] - Total revenue growth was 11%, with current cloud backlog increasing by 27% [8][30] - Free cash flow increased by 5%, while operating profit rose by 19% [8][34] - Total revenue reached EUR 9.1 billion, up 11%, with predictable revenue rising to 87% [33][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Cloud ERP suite delivered 31% growth in Q3, representing 87% of cloud revenues [30] - Software licenses revenue decreased by 42% in Q3 [32] - Non-IFRS cloud gross margin expanded by 1.1 percentage points to 75.1% [34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cloud revenue performance was particularly strong in APJ and EMEA regions, with Brazil, France, Germany, India, Italy, and South Korea showing outstanding performance [33] - The U.S. public sector is showing early signs of improvement, with a major framework contract awarded to SAP by the U.S. Army [32][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to accelerate total revenue growth through 2027, leveraging AI as a key enabler [7][28] - SAP's strategy focuses on software and cloud solutions rather than building infrastructure, partnering with strong infrastructure partners instead [16][88] - The introduction of AI agents and tools is central to enhancing customer value and operational efficiency [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the Q4 pipeline, indicating a strong recovery in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing [47][51] - The company anticipates reaching the lower end of its cloud revenue outlook for fiscal year 2025 due to delayed bookings [36][37] - Management remains optimistic about the potential for revenue acceleration in 2026, supported by a robust pipeline [77][78] Other Important Information - The acquisition of Smart Recruiters was completed, enhancing SAP's capabilities in talent acquisition [31] - The company is focusing on high-quality data and AI integration to drive business value [66][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on demand backdrop in U.S. public sector and manufacturing - Management noted positive early signs in the U.S. public sector and a strong Q4 pipeline, indicating a recovery in these sectors [45][47] Question: Insights on backlog and cloud revenue expectations - Management expressed confidence in the Q4 pipeline and the potential for a better exit rate for CCB growth than previously expected [51][52] Question: Uptake of SAP ERP transition options - Management indicated positive momentum in the pipeline and high interest in the transition options, with expectations for initial deals in Q4 [54][58] Question: Competitive position versus Oracle - Management emphasized the strength of SAP's strategy and the value provided to customers, asserting that the current approach is effective [86][88] Question: Free cash flow guidance and conversion - Management highlighted the impact of tax cash out phasing and working capital dynamics on free cash flow expectations for Q4 [80][84]