Core Insights - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) have experienced significant stock price increases of 59.9% and 62% respectively over the past year, driven by strong demand for AI technologies and easing trade tensions [1][2]. TSMC Insights - TSMC is expected to see continued growth due to strong demand for its advanced process technologies, projecting revenues of $34.6 billion to $35.8 billion for Q1 2026, which represents a 25.5% year-over-year increase and a 1.9% sequential rise [3][4]. - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2026 is anticipated to be between 63% and 65%, slightly up from 62.3% in Q4 2025, driven by increased demand from AI hyperscalers [4]. - TSMC's earnings growth is projected at 46.2% for the current quarter and 29.1% for the full year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS of $14.01 indicating a 27.1% year-over-year growth [5]. - Analysts are optimistic about TSMC's stock, with an average short-term price target of $408, suggesting a 19.2% increase from the last close, and a highest target of $520 indicating a potential upside of 51.9% [6]. NVIDIA Insights - NVIDIA is positioned for growth due to eased U.S.-China trade tensions, allowing selective Chinese tech companies to purchase its H200 AI chips, which could enhance its market presence in the region [10][11]. - The company anticipates revenues of nearly $65 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, with expected earnings growth rates of 70.8% for the current quarter and 55.9% for the full year [12][13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NVIDIA's EPS is $4.66, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 10.7% [13]. - Brokers project an average short-term price target for NVDA stock at $254.81, indicating a 33.1% increase from the last closing price, with the highest target at $352 suggesting an upside of 83.8% [15].

These companies are significant in our economy, and investors really want access to these companies. At the same time, there are shareholders and executives and founders who have been in them for a long time and want to start seeing some liquidity from their shares, which are a very high percentage of their net worth.No doubt. Private companies are staying private much longer now. Many of these businesses — including SpaceX and other companies that would be top 30 in the S&P 500 — would historically have go ...

Group 1 - Alibaba Group Holding Limited is recognized as one of the Top 15 Chinese Companies on US Exchanges [1] - Moonshot AI, backed by Alibaba, has upgraded its flagship model Kimi K2.5, claiming superior video-generation and agentic capabilities compared to top U.S. AI models [1] - Alibaba's generative AI model Qwen3-Max-Thinking has also been reported to outperform U.S. rivals on a benchmark test called 'Humanity's Last Exam' [2] Group 2 - China has approved three major tech companies, including Alibaba, to purchase over 400,000 Nvidia H200 AI chips, indicating a significant move in the AI sector [2] - This approval is part of China's strategy to ease trade tensions with the U.S. and supports the ongoing AI advancements by Chinese tech giants [2] - Alibaba is positioned at the forefront of China's generative AI expansion, highlighting its strategic importance in the tech landscape [2][3]

Core Insights - The AI funding landscape has seen a dramatic increase, with global AI financing reaching $225.8 billion in 2025, a 97% year-over-year increase, despite a slight decrease in the number of deals [3][10] - The funding is increasingly concentrated, with 78% of the capital flowing to less than 5% of projects, indicating a shift towards larger investments in fewer, high-potential teams [3][4] - The valuation dynamics have shifted from "scale-driven" to "density-driven," where smaller, more efficient teams are achieving higher valuations per employee [5][75] Investment Trends - Global AI financing reached $225.8 billion in 2025, a 97% increase from the previous year, while the number of deals slightly decreased, indicating larger average deal sizes [10][26] - In Q4 2025, AI financing surged to $83.2 billion, doubling compared to the average of the first three quarters [13] - The median deal size in the AI sector rose to $4.1 million, with the U.S. leading at a median of $5 million per deal [28][26] Regional Insights - Over 85% of global AI funding in Q4 2025 was directed towards the U.S., with a significant valuation gap between U.S. and Asian projects [4][16] - The median deal size in the U.S. was $5 million, compared to $3 million in Asia, highlighting the regional valuation disparity [4][28] Valuation Dynamics - The capital's focus has shifted to "density-driven" valuations, where smaller teams are achieving higher valuations per employee, such as OpenEvidence with a valuation of $173.9 million per employee [5][75] - In 2025, 67% of M&A targets had fewer than 50 employees, indicating a trend towards smaller, more agile companies being favored in acquisitions [68][68] Exit Trends - In 2025, there were 830 global AI exit transactions, with 782 through M&A, marking a 61% increase year-over-year and the highest in five years [94][94] - The U.S. accounted for 47% of exit transactions, demonstrating its dominance in both investment and exit activities [98][98] Talent Trends - The fastest-growing segments in AI talent include AI agent browser infrastructure (87.2% growth), voice AI development platforms (54.1% growth), and multi-agent systems (49.8% growth) [66][66] - Talent is migrating from foundational model layers to application infrastructure, indicating a shift in focus within the AI industry [7][7] Unicorn Insights - In 2025, 75 new AI unicorns were created, with the U.S. dominating the landscape, holding 256 out of 360 total unicorns by year-end [80][81] - The top three newly minted unicorns in Q4 2025 were Mercor ($10 billion), Metropolis ($5 billion), and Unconventional AI ($4.5 billion) [90][90]

Industry Overview - Hyperscalers are projected to spend $500 billion on AI-related capital expenditures in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure development [1] - AI developers are expected to invest $500 billion in infrastructure this year, highlighting the ongoing growth in the sector [1] Company Analysis: Broadcom - Broadcom is a key player in the AI infrastructure value chain, providing essential networking gear, switches, and interconnects for AI data centers [5][6] - The company is involved in designing custom silicon solutions for major developers like Alphabet, Apple, ByteDance, and Meta, enhancing its role in the AI ecosystem [6] - Broadcom has a market cap of $1.6 trillion, with a gross margin of 64.71% and a dividend yield of 0.73%, making it an attractive investment opportunity as analysts rate it a buy [4][8] Company Analysis: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is the largest chip manufacturer globally, holding an estimated 70% market share, and serves as a critical supplier for companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom [9] - The company has experienced a renaissance, becoming less vulnerable to cyclical trends in the semiconductor industry, with consistent demand driven by AI [11][13] - TSMC's revenue and profitability are accelerating, with management guiding for further growth as the AI infrastructure movement continues [13][14] - The company has a market cap of $1.8 trillion, a gross margin of 59.02%, and a dividend yield of 0.91%, positioning it as a potentially undervalued stock in the AI sector [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - China has approved its top AI startup DeepSeek to purchase Nvidia's H200 AI chips, with regulatory conditions still being finalized [1][3]. Group 1: Company Approvals - DeepSeek, along with ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, has received permission to buy over 400,000 H200 chips in total [1]. - The approvals were granted by China's industry and commerce ministries, but specific conditions are still under discussion by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) [3]. Group 2: Nvidia's Position - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company has not received confirmation regarding the approvals and believes that China is still finalizing the licensing process [2]. - The H200 chip is Nvidia's second most powerful AI chip and has become a significant point of contention in U.S.-China relations [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The U.S. has recently cleared the way for Nvidia to sell the H200 to China, where there is strong demand for the product [5]. - Any purchases by DeepSeek may attract scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers due to allegations that Nvidia assisted DeepSeek in developing AI models used by the Chinese military [6]. Group 4: Future Developments - DeepSeek is expected to launch its next-generation AI model V4, which will feature advanced coding capabilities, in mid-February [6].

Core Insights - Oracle's stock has nearly halved, with a current market cap below $470 billion, despite significant investments in AI infrastructure [1] - The company raised its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $50 billion from $35 billion, indicating aggressive spending plans [1] - Oracle's total debt and lease obligations have reached approximately $380 billion, raising concerns about its financial stability [1] Financial Performance - Oracle's total debt was approximately $108.1 billion as of Q2 FY 2026, with an additional $24 billion in lease liabilities [1] - The company raised $38 billion in term loans in October 2025 for data center projects, alongside $18 billion in investment-grade bond financing [1] - Future lease obligations have increased to $248 billion, with some leases extending up to 19 years [1] Market Position and Strategy - Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) reached $523 billion, largely driven by a $300 billion contract with OpenAI [1] - The company is not considered a top-tier general-purpose cloud provider like AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud, which limits its competitive edge [1] - Analysts express skepticism about Oracle's ability to convert its backlog into actual revenue quickly enough to service its debt [1] Risks and Challenges - OpenAI is projected to face a $207 billion funding shortfall by 2030, raising doubts about its ability to fulfill its commitments to Oracle [1] - The stock remains overvalued, and further declines may be necessary before it becomes a viable investment option [1] - The reliance on OpenAI's success poses significant risks to Oracle's financial health and stock performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - A weather-related power outage at an Oracle data center disrupted TikTok's services for U.S. users shortly after the app transitioned to new U.S.-led ownership [1][2][4]. Group 1: Service Disruption Details - Oracle confirmed that a temporary power outage at one of its U.S. data centers caused performance issues for TikTok users over the weekend and into early this week [2]. - TikTok acknowledged the outage, reporting slower load times, posting problems, and reduced engagement for some users [2][3]. - The company stated it was working to restore services and recognized a "major infrastructure issue" related to the power failure, although some technical issues might persist [3]. Group 2: Corporate Restructuring Context - The outage occurred shortly after TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, finalized a deal to create a new joint venture for U.S. operations, aimed at avoiding a potential nationwide ban [4]. - The new venture, TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, will be led by former TikTok operations executive Adam Presser, with U.S. and international investors controlling 80.1% of the venture [5]. Group 3: User Reaction and Privacy Concerns - The service disruption coincided with a significant increase in user skepticism following TikTok's updated U.S. privacy policy, which is linked to the new operational structure [6]. - Daily U.S. app deletions surged nearly 150% over the past five days compared to the previous three-month average, indicating growing privacy concerns among users [6]. - Some users criticized the new policy language regarding the potential collection of sensitive data, including demographic and financial information, raising broader concerns about data handling as TikTok transitions to American oversight [7].

Macquarie Equity Research 26 January 2026 China Internet Entering a dramatic stage of agentic reform Key Points Chinese New Year: Navigating a volatile transition China's internet sector is in a period of sharp transition as it reshapes online traffic flows and hierarchy. While we remain confident in China's long-term AI sovereignty, the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday could mark a key point where macroeconomic weakness meets aggressive reform. In this report, we introduce a Three-Level Traffic Order (3LT ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang expresses hope for the Chinese government to approve the sale of the H200 AI chip in China, with the licensing process nearing completion [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's H200 Chip - The H200 is Nvidia's second most powerful AI chip and has become a significant point of contention in U.S.-China relations, with strong demand from Chinese firms [6]. - Nvidia has not yet received confirmation regarding the approval status from the Chinese government, which is still deliberating on the matter [5]. - The company is prepared to work with its manufacturing partner TSMC to manage supply and delivery if the H200 is approved [7]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - China has reportedly approved major tech companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent to purchase over 400,000 H200 chips, but these approvals come with restrictive conditions [4]. - The Chinese government aims to balance the demands of its AI industry with the need to support its domestic semiconductor sector, which has contributed to the delay in import approvals [5]. - Despite U.S. approval for exports, the main barrier to shipments remains China's hesitation to allow imports of the H200 chip [6].