Core Viewpoint - Amazon has been identified as a top large-cap internet pick for 2026 by Mark Mahaney at Evercore ISI, despite being a laggard among the MAG7 group, underperforming with a 5.5% increase compared to the broader group's 19.5% rise [1][2]. Performance Analysis - Amazon's stock has shown a small breakout beyond a downward sloping trend line but is currently facing resistance at previous highs around $232, with notable levels at $239 and $242, while downside support is identified at $211 and $198 [3]. - The stock is moving sideways with no strong upward momentum, indicating a need for a push to new relative highs alongside the RSI [5]. Technical Indicators - A cluster of weekly, monthly, and quarterly moving averages is observed around $230 to $231, marking an important downside area to monitor for potential breaks [4]. - The volume profile indicates a point of control around $222, with another significant node near $230, suggesting these levels are critical for price stability [6]. Options Activity - Options trading has been relatively light, with a sizzle of 0.7 compared to the 5-day moving average of options volume, and expected moves of approximately 4.7% by January 16 and 10.7% by February 20 [9][10]. - A notable trade involved a $2.2 million debit for March 20th, 220 strike puts, indicating a potential bearish outlook if it was an opening position, requiring a 23% decline to break even [12].

Market Overview - Precious metals trade is experiencing a decline, with silver prices down nearly 3% after reaching a record above $80 an ounce, and its market cap briefly surpassing Nvidia's at $4.63 trillion [1][2] - Bitcoin has broken out of an 11-week downtrend, trading above $90,000, although it has since pulled back [2][3] - Major indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, are up by double-digit percentages year-to-date, but are showing bearish trends ahead of the holiday trading week [4] Industry Insights - Chris Versace from Tamatica Research notes that investors are preparing for 2026, with a focus on upcoming earnings growth and the CES event potentially driving new AI adoption [5][6] - Edardini expects productivity growth to drive momentum into 2026, with bullish S&P 500 targets as high as 7,100, and earnings growth of about 10% anticipated [8][9] - There is a broadening out of the AI trade beyond the MAG 7 stocks, with expectations that AI users will also contribute to productivity growth [10][11] Commodity Market Dynamics - Silver's price surge has raised concerns about its impact on industrial applications, especially with China imposing export restrictions starting January 1 [13][16] - The precious metals market has seen significant volatility, with silver prices increasing by 155% over the past year before recent declines [15] - The demand for industrial metals remains high, which could affect profit margins for companies reliant on these materials [17][18] Company Developments - Digital Bridge shares surged after SoftBank announced a $4 billion acquisition, focusing on data centers and digital infrastructure [33] - Nvidia completed a stock sale to Intel, acquiring over 200 million shares, as part of a $5 billion stake [34] - Lululemon's founder is initiating a proxy fight to change the board amid a 40% stock decline this year, with Elliot Investment Management also involved [36] Strategic Moves in Tech - Nvidia's $20 billion acquisition of Grock has raised questions due to the lack of an SEC filing, indicating a significant competitive move in the AI space [39][40] - Amazon's stock performance is under scrutiny, with concerns about AWS growth and its potential as an AI player [45][46] - Marll is highlighted as a key tech stock for the upcoming year, benefiting from increased AI adoption and network congestion [53]

Group 1: SoftBank and Digital Bridge Acquisition - SoftBank has made a proposal to acquire Digital Bridge for approximately $2.9 billion, offering around $16 per share, which is above the closing price on the previous Friday [2] - This acquisition aligns with SoftBank's strategy of divesting its stake in Nvidia, valued at approximately $5.8 billion, as it shifts focus towards AI applications and inference technologies [3] Group 2: Amazon's Performance and Outlook - Amazon's stock has seen a modest increase of about 2.5% over the past year, with a current price target set by Evercore at $335, significantly higher than its current trading price [5] - The company is recognized for its scalability across various platforms, including subscription services and e-commerce, with AWS reporting a year-over-year growth of 20% [6] - Despite high capital expenditures of around $125 billion in the last year, this is considered reasonable relative to its sales of nearly $700 billion [7] Group 3: Housing Market and KB Homes - The housing market is facing challenges due to positive real interest rates, particularly with 10-year yields exceeding 4%, which is impacting growth [9] - JP Morgan has cut KB Homes' price target from $71 to $50 while maintaining a neutral rating, reflecting downward revisions in earnings estimates [10] - The company is expected to see a lower return on equity estimated at around 6%, down from a previous consensus of 11%, with sales growth decelerating to approximately $6.2 billion [11]

Core Viewpoint - Investing in semiconductor stocks has been profitable over the last three years due to the critical role of chips in generative AI development, with companies like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron Technology leading the charge [1] Group 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's Role - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a key player in the semiconductor industry, often overshadowed by its peers but crucial for the future of AI [2] - TSMC is the largest chip manufacturer globally by revenue, providing essential fabrication processes for leading chip designers like Nvidia and AMD [4][5] Group 2: Growth and Demand - TSMC's revenue has been growing significantly, driven by the demand for AI accelerators and next-generation chips from Nvidia and AMD, indicating a steepening revenue trajectory [6] - As demand for AI chips and data centers increases, TSMC is positioned for explosive long-term growth, playing a vital supporting role in the generative AI landscape [7]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon has underperformed compared to the broader tech market over the past year, despite a re-acceleration in AWS and growth in high-margin monetization layers [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Amazon's stock has traded at a discount relative to its peers in the tech sector [1] - AWS has shown signs of re-acceleration, indicating potential for future growth [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued companies with strong competitive advantages [1]

Core Insights - Companies often execute stock splits as a sign of strong performance and optimism for continued growth, which can attract investor interest [1] Group 1: Amazon - Amazon has executed four stock splits, with the latest being a 20-for-1 split in June 2022, resulting in a 170% increase in share price since then [4] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a leading global cloud provider, benefiting from the AI boom, with significant investments in custom AI chips to maintain market leadership [5] - The advertising segment is growing faster than e-commerce, with high margins and effective advertising opportunities leveraging first-party customer data [6] - In Q3, Amazon reported net sales of $180.2 billion (up 13% year over year) and operating income of $17.4 billion, with AWS growth at 20% [9] Group 2: Netflix - Netflix has performed multiple stock splits, with the most recent being a 10-for-1 split in November 2025 [10] - The company is expanding into high-growth areas like ad-supported tiers, gaming, and live sports, aiming for profitable expansion rather than just subscriber growth [11] - In Q3 2025, Netflix's revenue reached $11.5 billion (up 17% year over year) with an operating margin of 28% and free cash flow of $2.7 billion [12] Group 3: Nvidia - Nvidia has executed six stock splits, with the latest being a 10-for-1 split in June 2024, leading to a 55% increase in share price since then [17] - The company reported record revenue of $57 billion (up 62% year over year) in Q3 2026, driven by data center and GPU sales [18] - Nvidia holds an estimated 80% to 90% market share in the data center AI chip market, with a strong competitive advantage through its CUDA software platform [20][21] - Demand for Nvidia's next-generation chips remains high, with a backlog of $500 billion in orders, and the company is expanding into new markets like robotics and autonomous vehicles [23]

Core Insights - Amazon has decided to halt its plans for drone delivery in Italy due to broader business regulatory issues despite progress with aerospace regulators [1] Group 1 - The company made significant progress with aerospace regulators regarding drone delivery [1] - Broader business regulatory issues were cited as the reason for not supporting the drone delivery project [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet and Amazon are identified as strong investment opportunities, particularly in light of their potential growth in 2026, despite differing performances in 2025 [2][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Alphabet's stock increased by approximately 60% in 2025, overcoming initial doubts regarding its capabilities in artificial intelligence and concerns about potential monopoly issues [6][7]. - Amazon's revenue grew by 13% in the third quarter, with its cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS), accounting for 66% of operating income despite only representing 18% of total revenue [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio includes Alphabet, which makes up about 1.7% of its total holdings, and Amazon, which constitutes 0.7% [5]. - The performance of Alphabet in 2025 suggests continued dominance in generative AI, potentially leading to new revenue streams in 2026 [8][9]. - Amazon's AWS has shown its fastest growth quarter in several years, indicating a strong rebound potential for the company in 2026 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia and Microsoft are viewed positively by Wall Street analysts, with both companies expected to see significant upside in their stock prices due to their strong positions in the AI market [2][3]. Nvidia - Nvidia has a competitive advantage due to its leadership in GPUs and a full-stack strategy that integrates hardware, software, and networking tools essential for AI [5]. - The company has over 90% market share in data center GPUs, with sales projected to grow at 36% annually through 2033, and adjusted earnings expected to increase at 48% annually through the fiscal year ending in January 2028 [8]. - The median target price for Nvidia is $250 per share, indicating a 31% upside from its current price of $190 [7]. - Nvidia's current valuation of 47 times earnings is considered cheap given its growth prospects [8]. Microsoft - Microsoft is the largest enterprise software company globally, with a strong presence in various software verticals, including business intelligence and cybersecurity [9]. - The company has integrated generative AI copilots into its software products, leading to a significant increase in monthly active users from 100 million in June to over 150 million in September [10]. - Microsoft Azure is the second-largest public cloud provider, benefiting from its investment in OpenAI, where it holds a 27% equity stake and has exclusive rights to advanced AI models [10]. - The median target price for Microsoft is $631 per share, suggesting a 29% upside from its current price of $488 [7]. - Microsoft's adjusted earnings are projected to grow at 16% annually through the fiscal year ending in June 2027, with a current valuation of 34 times earnings [11].

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) market is projected to grow from over $270 billion today to more than $5.2 trillion in the next decade, indicating significant investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Company Summaries - **Nvidia**: Dominates the accelerator chip market with a 92% market share in data centers, providing essential compute power for AI. The company has a $500 billion order backlog, showcasing its strong momentum [5][7]. - **Alphabet**: Leverages its extensive ecosystem, including Google apps and YouTube, to enhance its AI capabilities. The company has developed its own AI chip, the Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), and is positioned as a competitor to Nvidia in the AI chip market [8][9]. - **Microsoft**: Operates Azure, the second-largest cloud services platform, and holds a 27% stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. The company benefits from a stable software business and has a history of increasing dividends for 23 consecutive years [10][12]. - **Amazon**: Operates Amazon Web Services (AWS), the leading cloud services provider, and has an $8 billion stake in Anthropic, a competitor to OpenAI. The company's diverse business model supports long-term growth, with AI serving as an additional growth driver [13][14]. - **Palantir Technologies**: Focuses on custom software applications and has seen growth since launching its AI platform, AIP. The company has a significant opportunity for customer acquisition, which could drive future growth [15][17].