Ac t i o n | 16 Feb 2026 20:54:33 ET │ 18 pages NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Preview – Investors Looking Past Earnings to GTC 2026 CITI'S TAKE NVIDIA reports Jan-Q earnings on 2/25. We model Jan-Q sales of $67B above Street $65.6B and expect Apr-Q guide of $73B vs Street $71.6B. We expect continued strong ramp of B300 with Rubin launch to drive a 34% H/H acceleration in CY2H26 sales vs 27% in CY1H26. We believe most investors are looking past the earnings to annual GTC conference in mid- March for NVIDIA to talk ab ...

Ac t i o n | Google TPU sales to grow 4x or ~$65B by FY27 — We model FY26/27 AI revenues of $63B/$102B driven by better-than-expected TPU ramps. We believe AVGO's five announced customers are Google, Meta, Bytedance, Anthropic and Fujitsu based on supply chain discussions, while its two additional engagements are with OpenAI and Apple. Gross margin dilution from Anthropic rack shipments — Given Anthropic's estimated ~$10B rack sales in 2H26 and ~$11B in 1H27 (per AVGO), which we assume ~55% gross margins, w ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The US semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth in cloud capital expenditures (capex), with projections for CY26 and CY27 showing increases of +36% and +15% year-over-year (YoY) respectively [1][11] - Major US hyperscalers, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, are expected to report strong earnings, with Q4 global hyperscale capex projected at $141 billion, reflecting a +9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and +59% YoY increase [1][11] - TSMC's capex guidance for CY26 is approximately $54 billion, indicating a +32% YoY increase, which serves as a leading indicator for overall industry spending [1][11] Capital Expenditure Insights - The total capex for major cloud vendors is expected to reach $641 billion in CY26 and $739 billion in CY27, marking a significant increase from previous estimates [1][12] - The free cash flow (FCF) for top hyperscalers is projected to decline to ~$100 billion in CY26 from $260 billion in CY24, but remains positive, indicating a cushion for continued spending [3][14] - AI semiconductors are anticipated to constitute 70-80% of capex by CY28, up from ~60% in CY26, highlighting the growing importance of AI in capital expenditures [4][11] Key Catalysts and Future Outlook - Companies like Amazon and Google are expected to guide their CY26 capex outlooks up by strong double digits, with estimates ranging from +20% to +40% YoY [2][11] - The introduction of new AI models, such as Blackwell-trained models, is expected to reignite spending momentum due to significant performance improvements [2][19] - The profitability concerns regarding the extended depreciation schedules for AI infrastructure assets have been raised, with cloud vendors now commonly depreciating IT hardware over 4-6 years compared to the historical 3-4 years [23][25] Additional Insights - The cash flow from operations for cloud capex is projected to reach 75-85% of total operating cash flow in CY25-28, which is elevated compared to historical levels but deemed sustainable given the potential for AI infrastructure investments [14][15] - The demand for AI-related semiconductors is expected to continue growing, with key players like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO positioned to benefit from this trend [1][4] - The overall sentiment in the semiconductor industry remains optimistic, with a focus on AI and cloud infrastructure as primary growth drivers [1][3][4]

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive comparison of Intel against its competitors in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry, focusing on financial metrics, market position, and growth prospects [1] Company Overview - Intel is a leading digital chipmaker specializing in microprocessors for personal computers and data centers, holding a significant market share in both sectors [2] - The company aims to revitalize its chip manufacturing business and develop advanced products [2] Financial Metrics - Intel's Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio is 782.67, significantly higher than the industry average, indicating potential overvaluation [3] - The Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 2.11 is below the industry average, suggesting possible undervaluation based on book value [3] - Intel's Price to Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.87 is also lower than the industry average, indicating potential undervaluation based on sales performance [3] - The Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 3.98%, which is below the industry average, indicating inefficiency in profit generation [3] - The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) is $7.85 billion, above the industry average, highlighting strong profitability [3] - Gross profit is $5.22 billion, which is below the industry average, indicating challenges in revenue generation after production costs [3] Revenue Growth - Intel's revenue growth of 2.78% is significantly lower than the industry average of 34.81%, indicating potential sales performance issues [4] Debt-to-Equity Ratio - Intel has a lower debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44 compared to its top four peers, suggesting a more favorable balance between debt and equity financing [10] Summary of Key Takeaways - Intel's high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation, while its low P/B and P/S ratios suggest possible undervaluation [8] - The company shows lower profitability in terms of ROE compared to peers, but strong operational earnings as indicated by high EBITDA [8] - Challenges in generating profits and expanding revenue are highlighted by low gross profit and revenue growth [8]

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive evaluation of Intel in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry, comparing its performance against major competitors to identify investment opportunities and risks [1] Company Overview - Intel is a leading digital chipmaker focused on microprocessors for personal computers and data centers, holding a significant market share in both PC and server markets [2] - The company aims to revitalize its chip manufacturing business, Intel Foundry, while developing advanced products within its Intel Products segment [2] Financial Metrics - Intel's current Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio is 759.17, which is 10.44 times higher than the industry average, indicating a premium pricing in the market [5] - The Price to Book (P/B) ratio stands at 2.04, significantly lower than the industry average, suggesting potential undervaluation [5] - The Price to Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.75 is also below the industry average, indicating that the stock may be undervalued based on sales performance [5] - Intel's Return on Equity (ROE) is 3.98%, which is 1.69% below the industry average, indicating inefficiencies in profit generation [5] - The company's EBITDA is $7.85 billion, which is 0.2 times below the industry average, suggesting lower profitability [5] - Gross profit is reported at $5.22 billion, indicating a performance that is 0.15 times below the industry average [5] - Revenue growth for Intel is at 2.78%, significantly lower than the industry average of 34.59%, indicating a slowdown in sales expansion [5] Debt to Equity Ratio - Intel has a debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 0.44, which is lower than its top four peers, indicating a stronger financial position and a favorable balance between debt and equity [8] Comparative Performance - In comparison to its peers, Intel's high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, while its low P/B and P/S ratios indicate undervaluation relative to competitors [9] - Intel lags behind its peers in ROE, EBITDA, gross profit, and revenue growth, signaling weaker financial performance and growth prospects within the sector [9]

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive comparison of Intel against its competitors in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry, focusing on financial metrics, market position, and growth prospects for investors [1] Company Overview - Intel is a leading digital chipmaker specializing in microprocessors for personal computers and data centers, holding a significant market share in both sectors [2] - The company aims to revitalize its chip manufacturing business and develop advanced products within its Intel Products segment [2] Financial Metrics - Intel's Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio is 685.17, which is 9.61 times above the industry average, indicating a premium valuation [5] - The Price to Book (P/B) ratio stands at 1.84, slightly below the industry average, suggesting potential undervaluation based on book value [5] - The Price to Sales (P/S) ratio is 3.39, which is 0.27 times the industry average, indicating possible undervaluation based on sales performance [5] - Return on Equity (ROE) is 3.98%, which is 1.69% below the industry average, indicating inefficiency in profit generation [5] - EBITDA is reported at $7.85 billion, which is 0.2 times below the industry average, suggesting lower profitability [5] - Gross profit is $5.22 billion, indicating 0.15 times below the industry average, reflecting lower revenue after production costs [5] - Revenue growth for Intel is at 2.78%, significantly lower than the industry average of 34.59%, indicating a challenging sales environment [5] Debt to Equity Ratio - Intel has a debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 0.44, which is lower than its top four peers, indicating a stronger financial position and less reliance on debt financing [9][8] - This favorable balance between debt and equity is viewed positively by investors [9] Comparative Analysis - Intel's high P/E ratio compared to peers suggests potential overvaluation, while low P/B and P/S ratios indicate undervaluation relative to competitors [10] - In terms of ROE, EBITDA, gross profit, and revenue growth, Intel lags behind its peers, signaling weaker financial performance and growth prospects within the sector [10]

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of Micron Technology and its position within the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry, highlighting key financial metrics and growth prospects for investors [1] Company Overview - Micron Technology is a leading semiconductor company specializing in memory and storage chips, primarily generating revenue from dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and having some exposure to NAND flash chips [2] - The company serves a diverse global customer base, including data centers, mobile phones, consumer electronics, and industrial applications [2] Financial Metrics - Micron's Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio is 26.26, which is 0.27x lower than the industry average, indicating potential for growth at a reasonable price [3] - The Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 5.29 is significantly below the industry average by 0.56x, suggesting undervaluation and possible growth opportunities [3] - The Price to Sales (P/S) ratio of 7.37 is 0.59x the industry average, further indicating potential undervaluation [3] - The Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 9.28%, which is 3.87% above the industry average, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits [5] - Micron's EBITDA is $8.35 billion, which is 0.21x below the industry average, potentially indicating lower profitability [5] - The gross profit of $7.65 billion is 0.22x below the industry average, suggesting lower revenue after accounting for production costs [5] - Revenue growth of 56.65% exceeds the industry average of 32.03%, indicating strong sales performance [5] Debt Analysis - Micron Technology has a debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 0.21, which is lower than that of its top four peers, indicating a stronger financial position and a favorable balance between debt and equity [8] Summary of Performance - Micron's low P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios compared to peers suggest potential undervaluation, while its high ROE and revenue growth indicate strong performance and growth prospects relative to industry competitors [9]

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor - **Key Sales Data**: October monthly sales reached $71.3 billion, down 8.8% month-over-month (MoM), but above the estimate of $70.5 billion (down 9.9% MoM) and below the seasonal decline of 8.2% MoM due to weaker Flash sales [1][2][10] Core Insights - **Year-over-Year Growth**: October sales increased by 34.1% year-over-year (YoY), surpassing the estimate of 32.5% YoY [2][11] - **Sales Forecasts**: - **2025 Forecast**: Maintaining a forecast of $774.9 billion in semiconductor sales, representing a 23% YoY increase, driven by strong demand from AI [5][22] - **2026 Forecast**: Maintaining a forecast of $917.8 billion in semiconductor sales, representing an 18% YoY increase, marking the third consecutive year of close to 20% YoY growth, a feat not seen in thirty years [6][24] Unit and Pricing Trends - **Units Ex-Discretes**: October units ex-discretes were down 11.5% MoM, better than the estimate of down 12.8% MoM but below the seasonal decline of 10.2% MoM. YoY, units ex-discretes were up 19.1%, exceeding the estimate of 17.5% YoY [3][17] - **Average Selling Prices (ASPs)**: ASPs ex-discretes increased by 3.7% MoM, above the estimate of 3.4% MoM and the seasonal increase of 3.1% MoM, driven by higher Logic pricing. YoY, ASPs were up 13.4%, surpassing the estimate of 13.1% YoY [4][18] Key Company Insights - **Top Picks**: Microchip Technology (MCHP) is identified as the top pick due to its potential for upside, as its sales and margins have fallen the most from peak levels. Other recommended stocks include Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Analog Devices (ADI), Micron Technology (MU), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and Texas Instruments (TXN) [7][26] Additional Observations - **Flash Sales Impact**: Flash sales experienced a significant decline of 24.4% MoM, which was below the seasonal decline of 21.4% MoM, primarily due to lower unit sales [19] - **Microprocessor Performance**: Microprocessor sales increased by 3.8% MoM, outperforming the seasonal expectation of a decline, driven by higher units and pricing [20] - **Analog and Microcontroller Sales**: Analog sales decreased by 3.0% MoM, while microcontroller sales fell by 8.7% MoM, both affected by below-seasonal units but partially offset by higher pricing [21] This summary encapsulates the key points from the semiconductor industry conference call, highlighting sales performance, forecasts, unit trends, and company recommendations.

Vi e w p o i n t | 04 Dec 2025 03:00:00 ET │ 16 pages Broadcom Inc (AVGO.O) F4Q25 Earnings Preview: Expect Beat and Raise as Google Ramps TPU With External Customers + Strength in AI. Reiterate Buy. CITI'S TAKE Broadcom will release F4Q25 results on December 11, after market close. We expect AVGO to report results above Consensus, driven by continued AI strength (31% of F25E sales), particularly as Google extends its TPUs to external customers. We estimate AI sales to grow 147% YoY to roughly $49.3 billion ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of comprehensive evaluations for companies in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment industry, particularly focusing on NVIDIA and its competitors [1] Company Overview - NVIDIA is a leading developer of graphics processing units (GPUs), initially used for gaming but now also critical in artificial intelligence applications [2] - The company offers AI GPUs and a software platform called Cuda for AI model development and training, while also expanding its data center networking solutions [2] Financial Metrics Comparison - NVIDIA's Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio is 44.01, which is lower than the industry average by 0.52x, indicating potential value [3] - The Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 36.35 is significantly higher than the industry average by 4.51x, suggesting possible overvaluation based on book value [3] - The Price to Sales (P/S) ratio of 23.36 exceeds the industry average by 2.06x, indicating potential overvaluation in terms of sales performance [3] Performance Indicators - NVIDIA's Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 28.72%, which is 25.04% above the industry average, reflecting efficient use of equity to generate profits [7] - The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) is $31.94 billion, which is 0.81x below the industry average, suggesting potential financial challenges [7] - The gross profit of $33.85 billion is 1.0x below the industry average, indicating lower revenue after accounting for production costs [7] - Revenue growth of 55.6% is significantly higher than the industry average of 31.66%, showcasing strong demand for NVIDIA's products [7] Debt-to-Equity Ratio Analysis - NVIDIA has a lower debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio of 0.11 compared to its top 4 peers, indicating a stronger financial position and less reliance on debt financing [10] - The lower D/E ratio suggests a more favorable balance between debt and equity, aiding in informed decision-making regarding financial health [8]