February 17, 2026 09:05 PM GMT IT Hardware | North America Where There's Smoke… 10 Memory FAQs & Off-Cycle Earnings Preview M Our Hardware Industry downgrade and memory price inflation concerns have prompted several investor questions, which we address in this report. All told, recent earnings results reinforce our conviction in our Cautionary thesis, setting up a challenging off-cycle earnings week ahead. Key Takeaways We are gaining conviction in our cautionary memory thesis...here's the supporting eviden ...

Core Insights - The demand from AI data centers is driving a significant increase in memory chip prices, negatively impacting sales and margins for major consumer electronics manufacturers [1][2]. Memory Chip Market - Global AI capital expenditure is projected to reach between $5 trillion and $8 trillion by 2030, putting pressure on memory chip supply [2]. - Major memory chip manufacturers, including Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are struggling to meet demand despite rising prices and new capital expenditure plans [2]. - The memory market is in a "hyper-bull" phase, with prices expected to increase by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026, following a similar rise in Q4 2025 [3]. Consumer Electronics Impact - Consumer electronics companies like Dell, Lenovo, HP, Xiaomi, and Apple are facing challenges in maintaining margins due to high memory chip prices, which may lead to decreased consumer demand [4]. - IDC forecasts a 3% to 5% increase in the average selling price of smartphones, while the market may contract by 5.2% in 2026 [5]. - The PC segment is also under pressure, with only the Microsoft Windows 10 end-of-life refresh cycle providing some support for demand [5]. Stock Performance - Leading consumer electronics stocks have experienced significant declines, with Dell down 8.90%, Lenovo down 14.02%, HP down 23.14%, and Xiaomi down 38.69% [6]. - In contrast, memory chip manufacturers have seen substantial stock price increases, with Samsung up 60.62%, SK Hynix up 181.19%, and Micron up 256.26% over the past six months [8]. - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which tracks semiconductor and memory stocks, has also performed well, increasing by 40.85% [8][9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: IT Hardware, specifically focusing on North America - **Key Trends**: Rising memory costs, HDD supply shortages, and strong demand for AI servers are shaping the current landscape Core Insights 1. **iPhone Demand**: iPhone strength is expected to continue into CY26, with December 2025 tracking 20-40% year-over-year growth in China, partly due to Huawei's decline [13][11] 2. **HDD Supply Shortage**: The HDD supply shortage is worsening, now projected to be 200EB short of demand over the next 12 months, up from previous estimates of 100-150EB [12][15] 3. **Price Increases**: Most hardware OEMs, except Apple, are expected to raise product prices significantly in the first half of CY26 to offset rising memory costs, which may lead to unit declines in Android smartphones and Windows PCs for the full year [2][12] 4. **AI Server Demand**: Demand for AI servers remains robust, with over 30% year-over-year growth expected for general servers among cloud service providers (CSPs) in 2026 [2][21] 5. **OEM Headcount Reductions**: OEMs like DELL, HPQ, and HPE are likely to cut headcount to protect operating margins due to rising input costs and a shift towards AI servers, which have lower gross margins [2][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Memory Pricing**: DRAM prices are expected to increase by 40-70% quarter-over-quarter in C1Q26, while NAND prices are projected to rise by 30-35% [9][8] 2. **Apple's Strategy**: Apple has secured favorable NAND pricing through a deal with KIOXIA but may face renegotiations in early 2026. Apple is also expected to introduce a low-cost MacBook at $599 in C1H26 to gain market share [7][14] 3. **General Server Pricing**: General server pricing is anticipated to increase significantly due to rising memory costs, which may lead to a strong C1Q26 followed by a weaker second half of the year [12][19] 4. **PC Market Dynamics**: PC demand is currently stable, with OEMs negotiating prices due to rising memory costs. Smaller OEMs may struggle to secure memory supply compared to larger players like DELL and HPQ [20][22] 5. **Supply Chain Adjustments**: HDD makers are reallocating capacity from consumer applications to cloud demand, and STX is raising consumer HDD prices by 10% each quarter to align margins with nearline drives [15][12] Conclusion The IT hardware industry is facing significant challenges and opportunities driven by rising memory costs, supply shortages, and shifting demand towards AI servers. Companies are adapting their strategies to navigate these dynamics, with a focus on maintaining margins and market share.

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. is experiencing financial losses and is considered "too speculative" by Jim Cramer, who recommends Dell Technologies as a more stable investment option [1] - Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of $146.1 million, which fell short of analyst expectations of $155.11 million [1] - The company posted an adjusted loss of 40 cents per share, which was better than the anticipated loss of 49 cents per share [2] - Nebius has initiated an at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million shares [2] Price Action - Nebius shares increased by 5% to close at $95.07 [5] - Dell shares decreased by 2.7% to close at $119.38 [5] - Kenvue shares fell by 1.1% to settle at $16.06 [5] Analyst Ratings - Barclays analyst Lauren Lieberman maintained an Equal-Weight rating on Kenvue and raised the price target from $17 to $18 [3]

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced an upward trend, with the Dow Jones index increasing by over 100 points, closing at 46,751.12, a rise of 0.32% [1] - The NASDAQ rose by 0.88% to 22,989.73, and the S&P 500 gained 0.57% to 6,752.93 [1] - Information technology shares saw a notable increase of 1.1%, while consumer staples stocks fell by 0.4% [1] Commodities - Oil prices increased by 1.7%, reaching $62.78, while gold rose by 1.5% to $4,066.00 [5] - Silver prices surged by 2.7% to $48.780, whereas copper experienced a slight decline of 0.2% to $5.0860 [5] European Markets - European shares showed positive performance, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.86% [6] - Spain's IBEX 35 Index increased by 1.18%, London's FTSE 100 rose by 0.77%, Germany's DAX 40 gained 0.97%, and France's CAC 40 also rose by 1.18% [6] Asian Markets - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling by 0.45%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index down by 0.48%, and India's BSE Sensex declining by 0.19% [7] Company Updates - Dell Technologies Inc. saw its shares rise by 9% to $163.88, with Wells Fargo and Bernstein analysts raising their price targets to $180 [9] - Critical Metals Corp. shares surged by 15% to $11.50 after signing a 10-year offtake deal for 15% of rare earth output from the Tanbreez Project [9] - Select Medical Holdings Corporation shares increased by 13% to $14.71, with RBC Capital raising the price target from $16 to $20 [9] - Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. shares dropped by 19% to $2.4912 following a $75 million offering announcement [9] - Zeta Network Group shares fell by 47% to $1.81 after announcing a $15 million registered direct offering [9] - Envoy Medical, Inc. shares decreased by 38% to $0.9899 after announcing a $4 million registered direct offering [9]

Summary of Earnings Call Transcript Industry Overview - The focus is on the **IT Hardware** sector in **North America**, particularly enterprise hardware and storage solutions. Key Companies Discussed - **Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)** - **Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)** - **Pure Storage Inc. (PSTG)** - **NetApp Inc. (NTAP)** - **HP Inc. (HPQ)** Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Earnings Expectations**: July quarter results for enterprise hardware are expected to modestly outperform expectations, driven by robust AI spending in compute and networking, solid PC performance in Q2, and strong storage results, although long-term questions remain regarding data center modernization [4][8][15] 2. **Company Ratings**: - HPE upgraded to **Overweight (OW)** from **Equal-weight (EW)** with a price target of **$28** (up from $22) [5][46] - DELL remains **Overweight** with a price target raised to **$144** (from $135) [5][45] - PSTG and NTAP remain **Equal-weight** with price targets of **$60** and **$115** respectively [5][53] - HPQ remains **Equal-weight** with a price target of **$26** [5][52] 3. **Enterprise Hardware Spending**: Overall enterprise hardware spending growth is projected at **+1.5% year-over-year** for 2025, trailing the 10-year average of **1.8%** [9][15] 4. **Market Dynamics**: - Strong demand for AI compute and networking is noted, with a positive inflection in networking growth after several quarters of decline [8][15] - Mixed signals for enterprise storage demand in the second half of 2025, with potential growth driven by data center monetization needs [15][18] 5. **Company-Specific Insights**: - **HPE**: Expected to benefit from the Juniper acquisition, with EPS projected at **$2.51** for FY26, reflecting a **13%** accretion from the deal [46][33] - **DELL**: Positioned well for AI infrastructure demand, with a forecasted revenue of **$105.3 billion** for FY26 [45] - **PSTG**: Continues to gain market share but faces competition from software-centric storage providers [20][53] - **NTAP**: Cautious outlook due to increased competition from DELL and HPE, with a valuation at **12.3x FY27 EPS** [53][57] - **HPQ**: Faces challenges in the print and PC markets, with limited growth prospects [52][21] Additional Important Points 1. **CIO Survey Insights**: 31% of CIOs believe HPE is best positioned for growth in new areas, followed by DELL at 25% and PSTG at 14% [22][23] 2. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment is cautious, with expectations for hardware growth to slow in the latter half of the year, particularly in PCs and general servers [15][18] 3. **Valuation Metrics**: HPE currently trades at **~10x P/E**, below its networking peers at **~16x**, indicating potential for multiple expansion [39][49] 4. **Risks**: Key risks include execution challenges with the Juniper integration, competitive pressures in networking, and potential underperformance in free cash flow generation [43][44] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the IT hardware industry and the companies involved.

Summary of Global Switch Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global switch market, focusing on data center switches and campus switches, with an emphasis on the impact of generative AI on demand and specifications [1][2][10]. Key Points Market Growth Projections - The global switch market is expected to reach **US$54 billion** in 2025 and **US$66 billion** in 2026, with data center switches projected to grow **42% YoY** to **US$38 billion** in 2025 and **32% YoY** to **US$50 billion** in 2026 [2][10]. - Data center switch ports shipment is anticipated to increase to **93 million** units in 2025 and **144 million** units in 2026, reflecting a **50%** and **55% YoY** growth respectively [2][10]. Demand for High-Speed Transmission - The demand for switches is shifting towards high-speed transmission due to the adoption of generative AI, with **800G switch value** expected to grow **159%** in 2025 and **92%** in 2026 [1]. - Customized switch solutions are increasingly sought after to meet specific client needs across various AI application scenarios [1]. Campus Switches Stability - Campus switch ports volume is expected to remain stable, with a slight decline of **-1%** in 2025 and flat growth in 2026, primarily serving educational and small to medium business clients [11]. - The mix of switch types is projected to upgrade, with **25G** and **100G** switches increasing from **0.6%** and **0.2%** in 2024 to **0.7%** and **0.3%** in 2026 [11]. Revenue and Pricing Insights - Data center switch revenues are projected to grow significantly, with the average selling price (ASP) per port expected to rise from **US$186** in 2023 to **US$240** in 2026 [10]. - The overall revenue from switch ports is expected to increase from **US$39.7 billion** in 2023 to **US$66.4 billion** in 2026 [10]. Competitive Landscape - Key players mentioned include Ruijie, Huaqin, Hon Hai/FII, Arista, Dell, and Broadcom, indicating a competitive environment with various brands and technologies [3]. Additional Insights - The attach ratio of switch ports per GPU is projected to increase, indicating a growing need for high-performance computing solutions in data centers [16]. - The conference highlights the importance of adapting to technological advancements and client demands in the switch market, particularly in the context of AI and high-speed networking [1][10]. Conclusion - The global switch market is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI and high-speed transmission requirements, with data center switches leading the charge. The stability in campus switches suggests a mature market segment, while the competitive landscape remains dynamic with several key players vying for market share.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Apple, Inc. (AAPL) - **Industry**: IT Hardware, specifically focusing on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical factors on the hardware sector in North America Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Exemption Odds for Apple**: The likelihood of Apple receiving a targeted tariff exemption is estimated at 20%, due to changes in the exemption process under the current administration [1] 2. **Historical Spending Commitments**: Apple's recent announcement of $500 billion in US spending commitments is viewed as unlikely to significantly alter the administration's treatment of the company, given similar past commitments [2] 3. **Impact of Tariffs on EPS**: Apple could face $33 billion in annualized incremental tariff costs, translating to a potential 26% headwind on earnings per share (EPS) [3] 4. **Market Reaction**: Following the tariff announcements, 12 out of 19 companies in the IT Hardware sector experienced declines of over 10%, indicating market sensitivity to tariff news [8] 5. **Pre-buying Behavior**: Enterprises are exhibiting cautious spending and pre-buying of hardware in anticipation of tariff impacts, with a notable drop in expected hardware spending growth from 2.2% to 0.7% [11] Additional Important Insights 1. **Potential Retaliatory Actions**: The risk of retaliatory actions against US companies, particularly Apple, is a concern, especially given its significant revenue from China [13] 2. **Tariff Implications for AI Servers**: AI servers assembled in Asia may be subject to high tariffs, but the exact taxation details remain unclear [14] 3. **Beneficiaries of Tariffs**: Kornit Digital could benefit from potential onshoring in the textile industry due to tariff pressures, although no immediate beneficiaries were identified in the IT Hardware sector [15] 4. **Valuation Methodology**: The price target for Apple is set at $252, based on an 8.5x EV/Sales FY26 multiple, implying a P/E of approximately 30x on projected EPS [16] Risks Identified 1. **Upside Risks**: Factors such as strong iPhone performance and unexpected growth in services could positively impact Apple’s stock [19] 2. **Downside Risks**: Weak consumer spending and geopolitical tensions pose significant risks to Apple's performance [19] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of tariffs, market reactions, and potential risks for Apple and the broader IT Hardware industry.

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductors, is attracting significant investor interest, with NVIDIA leading the charge and influencing associated stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Analysts on Wall Street are optimistic about Taiwan Semiconductor, anticipating a bullish quarterly announcement from NVIDIA that could enhance demand and production for the company [3]. - Taiwan Semiconductor has a MarketRank™ in the 83rd percentile, with a Moderate Buy rating and a projected earnings growth of 19.89% [4]. - Barclays analysts have reiterated an Overweight rating on Taiwan Semiconductor with a price target of $255, suggesting a potential net rally of up to 16% from current trading levels [5]. - The stock trades at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.0x compared to NVIDIA's 41.0x, indicating a better risk-adjusted return for investors [6]. Group 2: Dell Technologies - Dell is leveraging its partnership with NVIDIA to enhance its hardware and software offerings, which could lead to renewed upside potential for the stock [7]. - Dell's MarketRank™ is in the 100th percentile, with a Moderate Buy rating and a projected upside of 39.6% [8]. - Analysts from Bank of America have set a price target of $150 per share for Dell, indicating a potential 40% rally from current prices despite a recent decline following earnings announcements [8]. Group 3: Oracle Corporation - Oracle plays a crucial role in the AI development associated with NVIDIA's chips by providing the necessary cloud computing platform [11]. - The company has a MarketRank™ in the 98th percentile, with a Moderate Buy rating and a projected upside of 10.0% [12]. - Institutional investors, particularly UBS Asset Management, have increased their holdings in Oracle by 20.5%, amounting to a stake worth $2.3 billion, indicating confidence in the stock's future performance [12]. - Oracle shares are trading at 83% of their 52-week highs, fitting into the risk-adjusted return profile for investors seeking upside [13].

首次公开发行股票并在主板上市 招股说明书 保荐人（主承销商） （上海市静安区新闸路 1508 号） 江苏翔腾新材料股份有限公司 Jiangsu Topfly New Materials Co., Ltd. （南京市栖霞区栖霞街道广月路 21 号） 发行人声明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 江苏翔腾新材料股份有限公司 首次公开发行股票并在主板上市招股说明书 本次发行概况 | 发行股票类型 | 人民币普通股（A 股） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发行股票数量 | 不超过 1,717.1722 股本的比例不低于 | | | 万股，且本次发行股份数量占发行后公司总 25%；本次公开发行的股票全部为新股，不 | | | 进行老股转让 | | | | | 每股面值 | 人民币 | 1.00 | 元 | | | 每股发行价格 | 28.93 | 元/股 ...