1 October 2025 | 6:32PM HKT Equity Research Taiwan ODM/Brands: 3-month Preview: Apple supply chain sustained strong momentum; AI server growth trend mixed We preview 3-month revenues for 10 companies in the AI servers/PCs supply chain, and update our estimates and/or TPs for AVC, Quanta, Asus, Wistron and Compal within. Across the supply chain, we are positive on: (1) Apple's supply chain on the back of new models ramp up with two consecutive years of form factor changes (i.e. Air and foldable phones) to su ...

Summary of Global Server Market and AI Server Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global server market, particularly the AI server segment, with projections extending to 2027E. The analysis includes various types of servers such as ASIC AI servers, AI training servers, AI inferencing servers, general servers, and HPC servers [1][14]. Key Insights Market Projections - The global server market is projected to grow significantly, with total revenues expected to reach **US$359 billion**, **US$474 billion**, and **US$563 billion** in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of **42%**, **32%**, and **19%** [14][30]. - AI server shipments are expected to increase, with **10 million**, **14 million**, and **17 million** AI chips required in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively. The contribution of ASIC shipments is projected to rise from **38%** in 2025E to **45%** in 2027E [1][8]. AI Server Segment Growth - High power AI servers (powered by **500 TFlops+ ASIC and GPUs**) are forecasted to see a **21%** and **39%** increase in volume estimates for 2025E and 2026E, respectively. Inferencing AI servers are expected to grow by **3%** and **5%** in the same years [3][11]. - Full rack AI servers are estimated to ship **19,000** units in 2025E, increasing to **67,000** units by 2027E, with a total addressable market (TAM) of **US$54 billion**, **US$157 billion**, and **US$232 billion** for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [11][30]. Cloud Service Provider (CSP) Capital Expenditure - Leading US CSPs are projected to increase their capital expenditure (capex) by **67%**, **23%**, and **15%** year-over-year from 2025E to 2027E. In contrast, leading Chinese CSPs are expected to grow their capex by **55%**, **8%**, and **6%** in the same period [8][24][27]. AI Chip Demand - The demand for AI chips is expected to reach **9,990 thousand**, **13,631 thousand**, and **16,551 thousand** units for training and inferencing combined in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively. The mix of GPU and ASIC chips is projected to shift, with GPUs making up **62%** in 2025E and decreasing to **55%** by 2027E, while ASICs will increase from **38%** to **45%** [3][20]. Additional Insights Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for AI servers indicates that training servers will generate **US$189.6 billion**, **US$294.6 billion**, and **US$370.6 billion** in 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, respectively. High power AI servers are expected to generate **US$135.9 billion**, **US$137.9 billion**, and **US$139 billion** in the same years [30]. - General servers are projected to see revenues of **US$133.7 billion**, **US$140.2 billion**, and **US$146.5 billion** from 2025E to 2027E, indicating a recovery in the general server market [30]. Market Dynamics - The growth in AI applications and increased cloud capex are driving the demand for AI servers. OpenAI's user base has quadrupled to **700 million** weekly active users, indicating a broader adoption of AI technologies [3][11]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights key players in the AI server market, including ODMs like Wiwynn, Wistron, and Hon Hai, as well as companies involved in silicon photonics and liquid cooling technologies [2]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the global server market, emphasizing the significant growth potential in the AI server segment driven by technological advancements and increased cloud investments.

Core Insights - Qualcomm has a strong cash flow generation, producing $11.5 billion in free cash flow, which is approximately 5.5% of its $200 billion market capitalization [3] - The company is experiencing solid revenue growth, with a 16% increase over the past year and an expected 12% growth in FY'25, driven by the smartphone chipset industry and rising sales in IoT and automotive sectors [4][5] - Qualcomm is diversifying its revenue streams, aiming for $8 billion in automotive semiconductor revenue by FY'29 and entering the PC market with its Snapdragon X2 Elite chip [4][5] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the AI market through its acquisition of Alphawave Semi, enhancing its capabilities in energy-efficient AI CPUs [5][6] - Qualcomm's revenue is projected to reach $67 billion by 2028 if growth accelerates at an annual rate of 15%, with potential net income of around $18 billion [6][7] - The current valuation of Qualcomm at approximately 16 times earnings presents a significant upside potential, with a target share price of $360, more than double its current value [7][8] Financial Performance - Qualcomm's cash flow margin stands at 29.3%, resulting in nearly $13 billion of operating cash flow over the past year [3] - The company has a robust net income of close to $12 billion, reflecting a net margin of approximately 27% [3] - The balance sheet remains strong, with debt comprising less than 8% of market capitalization [3] Growth Catalysts - The automotive and IoT sectors combined generated $2.7 billion in revenue, marking a 23% year-over-year increase [4] - Qualcomm's strategy includes reducing dependence on smartphones while increasing exposure to high-growth markets such as PCs, AI, and automotive [4][5] - The transition in the PC sector towards ARM-based architectures presents an opportunity for Qualcomm to compete effectively [5] Shareholder Value - Continuous share buybacks have reduced the share count by nearly 30% over the last ten years, enhancing per-share earnings [3][8] - The combination of strong cash flow, growth initiatives, and share buybacks positions Qualcomm for sustained shareholder value creation [8]

Core Insights - The Indian PC market (excluding tablets) is projected to grow by 6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 3.6 million units, driven primarily by increased enterprise demand and a preference for AI devices [1] - The tablet market, however, is expected to decline significantly, with a 27% year-on-year drop to 1.2 million units due to reduced government procurement [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, notebook shipments increased by 8% to 2.7 million units, while desktop shipments saw a slight rise of 1% to 861,000 units [1] - The overall PC market is anticipated to grow by 7% in 2025, reaching 15.1 million units, while the tablet market is expected to shrink by 13% to 5.2 million units [1] Group 2: Drivers of Growth - Enterprise-driven demand is the main force behind the growth of the notebook market, with AI notebook shipments nearly tripling year-on-year as companies accelerate AI infrastructure deployment [2] - Consumer market growth is supported by enhanced retail momentum and digital adoption, with notebook shipments increasing by 12% due to strong e-commerce performance and promotional activities [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the second half of 2025, strong consumer demand for notebooks is expected to continue, driven by competitive pricing and government support for locally manufactured devices [3] - The tablet market will remain under pressure, but educational projects in Uttar Pradesh may boost shipments towards the end of the year [3] - The Indian PC market is entering a critical phase where AI adoption, educational tenders, and local manufacturing will shape its growth trajectory [3]

Core Viewpoint - The personal computer (PC) market is projected to grow by 4.1% year-over-year in 2025, with global shipments expected to reach 274 million units, driven by demand for AI-powered PCs and the transition to Microsoft Windows 11, although U.S. tariffs and macroeconomic challenges may negatively impact shipments in the latter half of 2025 [1] Dell Technologies - Dell Technologies is experiencing strong demand for commercial PCs, with Client Solutions Group (CSG) revenues reaching $12.5 billion in Q1 fiscal 2026, a 5% increase year-over-year, and commercial client revenues rising 9% to $11.04 billion [2][5] - The company has a broad portfolio of AI-capable PCs, including new Dell Pro Max notebooks and desktops equipped with advanced processors and GPUs, and is collaborating with partners like Meta Platforms and Microsoft [3] - Despite commercial growth, Dell's consumer business is struggling, with revenues declining 19% due to competition from Lenovo and HP, resulting in a market share drop to 9.8% [4] - Dell's second-quarter shipment grew 3% year-over-year to 9.8 million units, but it still lagged behind HP and Lenovo [4] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dell's fiscal 2026 earnings is $9.47 per share, indicating a 16.3% increase over fiscal 2025 [11] Apple - Apple's Mac business is benefiting from strong demand for its M4 chip series, with new products like the MacBook Air and Mac Studio enhancing its portfolio [6] - Apple's Mac shipments increased by 21.4% year-over-year, raising its market share to 9.1% [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Apple's fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 Mac revenues is $8.05 billion, reflecting a 14.8% growth compared to the previous year [10] - The consensus for Apple's fiscal 2025 earnings has risen by 3.1% to $7.33 per share, suggesting an 8.6% growth over fiscal 2024 [12] Stock Performance and Valuation - Dell Technologies shares have returned 11% year-to-date, outperforming Apple's decline of 10.1% [13] - Dell shares are considered cheaper, with a Price/Sales ratio of 0.8X compared to Apple's 7.84X, indicating a more favorable valuation for Dell [16] - Dell Technologies holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), while Apple has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that Dell is currently a better investment option [20]

Summary of Global Switch Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global switch market, focusing on data center switches and campus switches, with an emphasis on the impact of generative AI on demand and specifications [1][2][10]. Key Points Market Growth Projections - The global switch market is expected to reach **US$54 billion** in 2025 and **US$66 billion** in 2026, with data center switches projected to grow **42% YoY** to **US$38 billion** in 2025 and **32% YoY** to **US$50 billion** in 2026 [2][10]. - Data center switch ports shipment is anticipated to increase to **93 million** units in 2025 and **144 million** units in 2026, reflecting a **50%** and **55% YoY** growth respectively [2][10]. Demand for High-Speed Transmission - The demand for switches is shifting towards high-speed transmission due to the adoption of generative AI, with **800G switch value** expected to grow **159%** in 2025 and **92%** in 2026 [1]. - Customized switch solutions are increasingly sought after to meet specific client needs across various AI application scenarios [1]. Campus Switches Stability - Campus switch ports volume is expected to remain stable, with a slight decline of **-1%** in 2025 and flat growth in 2026, primarily serving educational and small to medium business clients [11]. - The mix of switch types is projected to upgrade, with **25G** and **100G** switches increasing from **0.6%** and **0.2%** in 2024 to **0.7%** and **0.3%** in 2026 [11]. Revenue and Pricing Insights - Data center switch revenues are projected to grow significantly, with the average selling price (ASP) per port expected to rise from **US$186** in 2023 to **US$240** in 2026 [10]. - The overall revenue from switch ports is expected to increase from **US$39.7 billion** in 2023 to **US$66.4 billion** in 2026 [10]. Competitive Landscape - Key players mentioned include Ruijie, Huaqin, Hon Hai/FII, Arista, Dell, and Broadcom, indicating a competitive environment with various brands and technologies [3]. Additional Insights - The attach ratio of switch ports per GPU is projected to increase, indicating a growing need for high-performance computing solutions in data centers [16]. - The conference highlights the importance of adapting to technological advancements and client demands in the switch market, particularly in the context of AI and high-speed networking [1][10]. Conclusion - The global switch market is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI and high-speed transmission requirements, with data center switches leading the charge. The stability in campus switches suggests a mature market segment, while the competitive landscape remains dynamic with several key players vying for market share.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Taiwan ODM/Brands sector, particularly companies involved in the AI servers and PCs supply chain, including Quanta, Wiwynn, Wistron, Gigabyte, ASUS, Inventec, Pegatron, and Compal [1][2]. Key Insights Revenue Projections - **Monthly Revenue Growth**: Expected average revenue growth for the 10 companies is projected at -4% in July, +2% in August, and +8% in September 2025. Apple's supply chain is anticipated to outperform with Hon Hai at +7% and Pegatron at +9% in July due to new smartphone models [3]. - **Year-over-Year Revenue Growth**: Projected average revenue growth for July, August, and September 2025 is +41%, +30%, and +26%, respectively. Wiwynn is expected to lead with +152% YoY growth in July [4]. Company-Specific Insights - **Hon Hai**: Expected to see 3Q25 revenues grow 4% YoY and 7% QoQ to NT$1,927 billion, driven by AI server ramp-up and new smartphone launches. June revenues were 3% below estimates due to declines in consumer electronics [17]. - **Quanta**: Anticipated 3Q25 revenues to grow 29% YoY and 9% QoQ to NT$548 billion, supported by AI server ramp-up. June revenues exceeded estimates by 9% [24]. - **AVC**: Expected 3Q25 revenues to grow 69% YoY and 9% QoQ to NT$32 billion, driven by rising liquid cooling penetration in ASIC AI servers. June revenues were 25% higher than estimates [38]. - **Wiwynn**: Projected 3Q25 revenues to grow 126% YoY to NT$221 billion, supported by demand for ASIC AI servers. June revenues were 28% higher than estimates [43]. Market Dynamics - **AI Server Demand**: The ramp-up of rack-level AI servers and increasing penetration of liquid cooling technologies are key drivers for revenue growth across the sector [1][4]. - **Consumer Electronics Impact**: The consumer electronics market is facing uncertainties due to tariff issues, affecting companies like Pegatron and Compal, which are expected to post negative revenue growth YoY [4]. Additional Considerations - **Risks**: Key risks include slower-than-expected ramp-up of AI servers, weaker performance in EV solutions, and increased competition in consumer electronics [22][42]. - **Earnings Revisions**: Companies like Wiwynn and Quanta have seen upward revisions in revenue and net income forecasts due to better-than-expected demand for AI servers [49][28]. Conclusion - The Taiwan ODM/Brands sector is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI server technology and new product cycles, particularly in the smartphone market. However, companies must navigate challenges related to consumer electronics demand and competitive pressures.

Core Insights - Dell's PC and hardware division, the largest revenue driver, has seen a decline in revenue for the past three years, with total CSG revenue at $48.6 billion in 2025, down 21% from its 2022 peak [1][8] - Jeff Clarke, the vice chairman and COO, will take on day-to-day leadership of the consumer solutions group (CSG) to accelerate decision-making and capitalize on the PC refresh cycle [2][14] - The company is undergoing a reorganization to modernize operations, including leadership changes, with Sam Burd appointed to lead corporate strategy [2][16] Revenue Performance - CSG's revenue has declined annually since 2022, while ISG revenue, driven by AI server demand, increased by 29% in the last financial year [8] - Dell's total annual revenue rose by 8% in the 2025 financial year, and the company's stock increased by 11% since January [9] Market Position - Dell has been losing market share to competitors like Lenovo and HP in consumer and commercial notebooks and desktops [9] - The company aims to lead in the commercial and consumer PC markets and is focused on the critical PC refresh cycle [10] Employee Sentiment - Dell's employee satisfaction score, known as the employee net promoter score (eNPS), fell to 32, a nearly 50% decline over two years amid workforce reductions and return-to-office mandates [13]

Core Insights - The total shipment volume of desktops, laptops, and workstations is projected to grow by 7.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 67.6 million units [1] Summary by Category Laptops - Laptop shipments, including mobile workstations, are expected to reach 53.9 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [1] Desktops - Desktop shipments, including desktop workstations, are anticipated to grow by 9%, reaching 13.7 million units [1]

Investment Rating - Buy: Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Wistron, Gigabyte, ASUS, AVC; Neutral: Quanta, Inventec [8] Core Insights - The average year-over-year revenue growth for ten companies in the AI servers and AI PCs supply chain is expected to be +37% in June 2025, +27% in July 2025, and +18% in August 2025, driven by the ramp-up of AI servers and new product launches [1] - Rack-level AI servers are transitioning models, which may impact revenue growth in the second half of 2025 [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties are causing changes in end market demand, leading to a slower month-over-month growth forecast of -6% in June, -8% in July, and +2% in August 2025 [1] Company Summaries Hon Hai - Expected 2Q25 revenues to grow 17% YoY to NT$1,813 billion, driven by AI server demand and tariff-related consumption pull-ins [13] - May revenues were 6% below estimates, affected by slower customer pull-in momentum and negative exchange rate impacts [13] - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of NT$242 based on a 14.9x 2026E P/E multiple [15] Quanta - Anticipated 2Q25 revenues to grow 57% YoY to NT$488 billion, supported by AI server ramp-up [20] - May revenues were 13% below estimates, with a decline in notebook shipments [20] - Maintain Neutral rating with a target price of NT$273 based on a 12.8x 2026E P/E [23] Wiwynn - Expected 2Q25 revenues to grow 161% YoY to NT$202 billion, driven by strong demand for ASIC AI servers [38] - May revenues were 34% higher than estimates, reflecting continued strong demand [39] - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of NT$3,838 based on a 20.5x 2026E P/E [42] Wistron - Expected June revenues to grow 123% YoY to NT$198 billion, driven by AI server demand [47] - Strong revenue in May, up 162% YoY, supported by new product cycles [44] - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of NT$152 based on a 14.8x 2026E P/E [49] Gigabyte - Expected 2Q25 revenues to grow 32% YoY to NT$97 billion, supported by AI servers and VGAs [50] - May revenues were 79% above estimates, reflecting tariff-related pull-ins [51] - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of NT$344 based on a 14.0x 2026E P/E [55] AVC - Expected 2Q25 revenues to grow 67% YoY to NT$27 billion, driven by liquid cooling business [27] - May revenues were higher than estimates, reflecting the rising trend in liquid cooling [27] - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of NT$878 based on a 20.0x 2026E P/E [37] ASUS - Expected 2Q25 revenues to grow 21% YoY to NT$175 billion, supported by AI and gaming PCs [57] - May revenues were up 41% YoY, exceeding estimates [62] - Maintain Buy rating with a target price of NT$849 based on a 14.6x 2026E P/E [63] Inventec - Expected June revenues to be similar to May, supported by AI server ramp-up [65] - Maintain Neutral rating with a focus on AI server revenue contribution [65]