By Jo Constantz   International Business Machines Corp. said it will triple entry-level hiring in the US in 2026, even as artificial intelligence appears to be weighing on broader demand for early-career workers.    While the company declined to disclose specific hiring figures, it said the expansion will be “across the board,” affecting a wide range of departments.   “And yes, it’s for all these jobs that we’re being told AI can do,” said Nickle LaMoreaux, IBM’s chief human resources officer, speaking ...

Company Performance - Dropbox closed at $24.41, down 2.28% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.01% [1] - Prior to the recent trading day, Dropbox shares had declined 6.62%, compared to a 1.54% loss in the Computer and Technology sector and a 0.28% loss in the S&P 500 [1] Upcoming Earnings - Dropbox is set to report earnings on February 19, 2026, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.66, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.59% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projected at $627.51 million, down 2.5% from the previous year [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $2.82 per share and revenue of $2.51 billion, indicating a 13.25% increase in earnings but a 1.41% decrease in revenue compared to the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates and Stock Performance - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Dropbox suggest confidence in the company's business performance and profit potential [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Dropbox at 3 (Hold) [5] Valuation Metrics - Dropbox has a Forward P/E ratio of 8.16, which is lower than the industry average of 15.58 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.32, compared to the Internet - Services industry average PEG ratio of 1.8 [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Services industry, which includes Dropbox, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 159, placing it in the bottom 36% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - The software sector in the US has experienced a significant downturn, with major companies like Microsoft and Oracle seeing substantial stock price declines, leading to a total market cap loss of $1 trillion [1][4] - The release of a new tool by AI startup Anthropic has heightened investor concerns about the potential disruption of the software industry by AI technologies, triggering a wave of selling and short-selling by hedge funds [1][2][5] Market Performance - As of February 5, multiple software stocks have seen declines exceeding 30% year-to-date, with Unity Software down 47.45%, Applovin down 44.31%, and Figma down 40.59% [2][3] - Major players like Microsoft and Oracle have also faced downward pressure, with declines of 18.6% and 29.79% respectively [3] Short-Selling Activity - Hedge funds have aggressively shorted software stocks, with TeraWulf and Asana experiencing the highest short-selling pressures, at over 35% and 25% of their tradable shares respectively [4] - Hedge funds have profited $24 billion from short-selling activities in the software sector amid the $1 trillion market cap loss [4] Industry Outlook - The software industry is expected to undergo significant differentiation, with only a few companies like Microsoft likely to successfully integrate AI and adapt to the ongoing technological shifts [5] - The transition from traditional SaaS platforms to AI-native platforms is seen as a major paradigm shift, with historical precedents indicating that such transformations occur approximately every 10 to 15 years [6] - The first wave of AI-native companies is anticipated to begin their IPO processes later this year, which may pose challenges for traditional software vendors [6]

Core Insights - Hedge funds are increasing short positions in software stocks, contributing to significant sell-offs in the sector this year [1] - Hedge funds have made $24 billion in profits from shorting software stocks since 2026, while the total market capitalization of the U.S. software industry has decreased by $1 trillion during the same period [1] - The focus of short-selling appears to be on companies providing basic automation services, which are at risk of being replaced by new AI tools [1] Group 1 - Hedge funds are currently net short on the software industry, indicating a bearish outlook [2] - The stocks facing the largest short bets include TeraWulf and Asana, with over 35% and 25% of their tradable shares shorted, respectively [2] - Dropbox and Cipher Mining have 19% and 17% of their float shorted [2] Group 2 - The worst-performing stocks in the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF (IGV) this year include Intuit and DocuSign, both down over 30% [3] - Major stocks within the ETF, such as Microsoft and Oracle, have also suffered, with declines of 15% and 21% respectively, while Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow have dropped over 20% [4] - The recent sell-off was triggered by concerns over AI disruption, particularly following the release of a new tool by AI startup Anthropic [4] Group 3 - Despite the sell-off, there is currently no widespread panic in the credit markets, as corporate revolving credit lines remain untapped [5] - Analysts suggest that market sentiment may shift soon with several software companies set to release earnings reports [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of Boston as a technology hub compared to the San Francisco Bay Area, emphasizing that despite having top universities and historical significance, Boston has failed to foster a thriving innovation ecosystem due to regulatory issues and a misguided focus on inputs rather than the overall ecosystem [4][11][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 2004, top investors identified San Francisco and Boston as the best locations for software companies [4]. - Boston was historically strong due to institutions like MIT and Harvard, and companies like DEC and Lotus [5][13]. - By today, the San Francisco Bay Area has created $14 trillion in enterprise value, while Boston has only managed $1 trillion, highlighting a significant disparity [7][9]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Decline - Boston suffers from "Inputs-first Delusion," believing that having the best resources will automatically lead to innovation [16][18]. - The article argues that a successful tech ecosystem relies on a complex network of trust rather than just inputs like funding and talent [19][21]. - Regulatory short-sightedness and greed have also contributed to Boston's decline, with policies that discourage innovation [23][26]. Group 3: Regulatory Issues - Massachusetts has implemented policies such as rejecting QSBS exemptions and imposing a millionaire's tax, which deter entrepreneurs [27][28]. - The state also imposes a sales tax on SaaS, which is not common in other states, further complicating the business environment [28]. - These policies signal a lack of interest in fostering innovation, focusing instead on immediate revenue generation [30]. Group 4: Cultural and Economic Implications - The article describes a toxic culture among Boston's elite capital circles, where investors exploit entrepreneurs rather than fostering growth [34][36]. - The decline of Boston serves as a cautionary tale for the broader U.S. tech industry, suggesting that similar patterns could emerge elsewhere, including San Francisco [41][50]. - The article warns that when a society punishes creators and rewards parasites, innovation suffers [57][58]. Group 5: Lessons and Recommendations - The decline of Boston highlights the importance of an ecosystem over mere inputs, advocating for a low-friction business environment and high trust [55]. - It warns against industries that rely on complex financial games rather than creating real value [55]. - The article calls for a re-evaluation of the moral legitimacy of technology, emphasizing that innovation must benefit the public to avoid backlash [56].

Core Insights - Hummingbird Ventures, a London-based venture capital firm, focuses on supporting "outlier" founders, which has led to the recognition of its partners Barend Van den Brande and Firat Ileri in Forbes' Midas List Europe [2][3] - The firm successfully led a $15 million Series A funding round for BillionToOne, a medical diagnostics startup, which later went public with a market valuation reaching $4.4 billion [2][3] - Hummingbird's investment strategy emphasizes identifying founders with unique backgrounds and resilience, particularly those who have faced significant challenges in their lives [4][5] Investment Strategy - Hummingbird seeks "outlier" founders who possess a strong desire to succeed despite their unconventional backgrounds [4][5] - The firm has invested in various sectors, including biotechnology, cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and gaming, based on the shared traits of resilience among founders [3][4] - Hummingbird's approach diverges from traditional venture capital by focusing on fewer investments, often concentrating a significant portion of their funds into a single startup [9][12] Performance Metrics - Hummingbird's second fund, raised in 2012, has achieved a distribution to paid-in (DPI) ratio of 10x and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 46%, outperforming many peers [11][12] - The firm’s early funds rank among the top 10% of venture capital funds established since 2012, showcasing exceptional performance compared to industry averages [12] - Hummingbird's investment philosophy aligns with the pursuit of "cognitive arbitrage," similar to that of notable investors like Peter Thiel, but with a more aggressive and early-stage investment style [12][13] Team and Operations - Hummingbird's team consists of 14 members who actively search for promising founders globally, with a flexible approach to exploring opportunities in various regions [9][13] - The firm has established a talent team to assist founders in recruiting key management personnel, marking a rare alignment with traditional venture capital practices [11] - Hummingbird's headquarters in London is strategically located near other prominent venture capital firms, enhancing its networking and investment opportunities [13]

Core Viewpoint - Dropbox's CFO Timothy Regan will resign after five years, with Ross Tennenbaum appointed as his successor, indicating a leadership transition within the company [1] Company Summary - Timothy Regan has served as CFO of Dropbox for five years [1] - Ross Tennenbaum, a senior executive, will take over the CFO role [1]

Industry Overview - The Internet Services industry is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, labor markets, and supply chain issues, with a generally positive outlook in a stronger economy [1] - Companies in this industry are heavily investing in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to enhance service offerings and operational efficiency [3][7] - The industry is characterized by a capital-intensive nature, requiring significant investment in infrastructure, which is affected by interest rates [3][7] Performance Drivers - Data is crucial for success, enabling companies to build AI models that improve service quality and reduce operational costs [7] - Increased digitization and the growing presence of Gen Z consumers are driving demand for Internet services [7] - Traffic and customer acquisition are key revenue drivers, leading companies to invest in advertising and community building [8] Valuation and Market Performance - The Zacks Internet - Services industry ranks 99, placing it in the top 41% of 243 Zacks-classified industries, indicating several opportunities [9] - The industry has seen a net gain of 75.5% over the past year, outperforming the broader Technology sector and the S&P 500 [12] - Current valuation is high, with a forward P/E ratio of 29.58X, representing a 45.2% premium to its median value [15] Company Highlights Yatra Online, Inc. (YTRA) - Yatra operates an online travel booking platform in India, experiencing growth rates nearly double the corporate travel industry's 8-9% [18][19] - The company is expanding its Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions (MICE) business and has added 34 new clients with an annual billing potential of $29.5 million [20] - Yatra's earnings estimates for 2026 have increased by 200% in the last 30 days, with expected revenue growth of 23.8% and earnings growth of 250% [25] Tencent Holdings Ltd. (TCEHY) - Tencent is a leading Internet service portal in China, showing strong revenue growth driven by gaming and AI initiatives [29][30] - The company reported a combined monthly active user (MAU) growth to 1.4 billion for its Weixin and WeChat platforms [31] - Tencent's earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased by 15.6% and 13.6%, respectively, with shares up 48.2% over the past year [32]

Group 1 - The difficulty in obtaining funding for B2C businesses compared to B2B companies is a well-known fact in the VC and startup world [1] - Dropbox is highlighted as a mature, public software company, illustrating the contrast between B2C and B2B funding challenges [1] - Gary Alexander's extensive experience in both Wall Street and Silicon Valley provides insights into current industry themes and trends [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality stocks and businesses that are managed by disciplined capital allocators, which can generate exceptional returns on capital and compound invested capital over long periods of time [1] Group 1 - The investment philosophy focuses on acquiring stocks of companies that demonstrate strong management and capital allocation skills [1] - The preferred businesses are those that can sustain high returns on capital over time, indicating a robust business model [1]