February 26, 2026 09:00 PM GMT Haidilao International Holding Ltd Tables Poised to Turn | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) | From | To | | Price Target | HK$17.50 | HK$21.50 | Haidilao is no longer content with standing still – it is getting ready to grow again with macro tailwinds and revitalized leadership. Risk-reward is compelling. Our new bull case value implies ~140% upside. Reiterate OW; HDL is a preferred pick within our China consumer coverage. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer Sector - **Focus**: 2026 Chinese New Year (CNY) Holiday Consumption Trends Core Insights - **Domestic Travel**: - Total travelers during the 9-day holiday (Feb 15-23, 2026) increased by **19%** compared to the 8-day holiday in 2025 - Tourism revenue rose by **18.7%**, while per traveler spending decreased by **0.2%** compared to the previous year [2] - Daily traveler numbers grew by **5.7%**, and tourism revenue increased by **5.5%**, but spending per traveler fell by **11.3%** year-over-year [2] - **Cross-Border Travel**: - Average daily inbound and outbound travelers increased by **10.1%** year-over-year compared to 2025 CNY, which had a **6.3%** increase [2] - **Retail and Catering Sales**: - Key enterprises saw a **5.7%** increase in sales on a daily basis compared to 2025 CNY, up from **4.1%** year-over-year in 2025 [3] - Haidilao (6862.HK) reported an average table turnover of over **5 times per day**, up more than **5%** year-over-year, with an average of **1.56 million** daily guests during CNY, reflecting a **9%** increase year-over-year [3] - **Box Office Performance**: - The box office was notably weak, showing a decline of **39%** compared to 2025 CNY [3] - **Hainan Duty-Free Sales**: - Average daily offline sales, number of shoppers, and quantity of items purchased increased by **16%**, **20%**, and **8%** respectively compared to 2025 CNY [3] - **Food & Beverage Sector**: - Overall demand for the CNY season showed improvement, although consumers remained price-sensitive [4] Additional Observations - **Consumer Sentiment**: - Overall consumption trends during the CNY holiday improved compared to the previous year, attributed to an extra day of holiday, leading to strong growth in travel numbers but flat per capita spending [8] - Consumers displayed budget caution, indicating a need for a broader recovery in the market, which is expected to be uneven throughout 2026 [8] - **Pockets of Resilience**: - Notable areas of resilience include a pickup in offline services consumption, supply recalibration, pricing recovery, and overseas growth opportunities [8] Conclusion - The CNY holiday consumption trends indicate a mixed recovery in the China/Hong Kong consumer sector, with significant growth in travel and retail sales but challenges in consumer spending and entertainment sectors. The overall sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with expectations for a gradual recovery in the coming year.

Flash | 13 Jan 2026 10:54:08 ET │ 10 pages Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) Positive on the founder's return as new CEO; Top Buy in China Consumer Sector CITI'S TAKE After market close today (Jan 13), Haidilao (HDL) announced the high- profile return of its founder and Chairman (Mr. ZHANG Yong) as its new CEO effective from Jan 13. In China Consumer space, we see the founder's return to CEO posts a strong signal of enhanced execution and a leading indicator of growth re-acceleration (like the ca ...

Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd - **Ticker**: 6862.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$80,377 million (approximately US$10,326 million) [3] Industry Context - **Industry**: China Restaurant Sector - **Retail Sales Growth**: China restaurant retail sales showed a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 3.2% in November, stabilizing compared to 3.8% in October. This growth is significantly higher than the 0.9%-2.1% range observed from June to September 2025 [1][2]. Key Insights - **Positive Outlook**: Haidilao is reiterated as a "Top Buy" in the China restaurant sector, with expectations of benefiting from reduced e-commerce subsidies, which should enhance store traffic recovery in the dine-in business over the next few quarters [1]. - **Government Support**: The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) emphasized plans to eliminate unreasonable consumption restrictions and boost service consumption, which is expected to favor casual dining players like Haidilao over quick-service restaurants (QSRs) in 2026 [1]. - **Operational Improvements**: Management anticipates positive momentum in table-turn rates in Q1 2026, aided by a longer Chinese New Year holiday period and improved operational efficiencies from remodeled stores [2]. Financial Performance - **Table-Turn Rates**: Haidilao experienced flat table-turn rates in November, with a slight deceleration attributed to fewer holidays compared to October. However, management expects less pressure on table-turns in Q4 2025 due to seasonal factors [2]. - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: GPM improved sequentially in Q3 2025 compared to the first half of 2025, reaching 60.2%. This improvement was driven by menu optimization efforts to mitigate raw material cost pressures [2]. - **Operational Cost Management**: Management plans to terminate several loss-making pilot programs in Q1 2026, which is expected to yield operational expense savings for the full year [5]. Risks and Challenges - **Brand Ownership**: Haidilao does not own the "Haidilao" brand, which is also used by connected parties, posing a potential risk [10]. - **Market Competition**: Intensified competition and cannibalization from new store openings could impact store efficiency and performance [10]. - **Economic Factors**: A slowdown in consumption in China and higher-than-expected commodity and wage inflation are key downside risks [10]. Valuation - **Target Price**: The target price for Haidilao is set at HK$18.50, based on a 12x 2025E EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple, aligning with the trading average of global restaurant peers [9]. Investment Returns - **Expected Returns**: The expected share price return is 28.3%, with an expected dividend yield of 1.8%, leading to a total expected return of 30.1% [3]. Conclusion Haidilao International Holding Ltd is positioned favorably within the China restaurant sector, with operational improvements and supportive government policies expected to drive growth. However, potential risks related to brand ownership and market competition must be monitored closely.

12 Dec 2025 01:08:59 ET │ 12 pages Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) Top Buy in China Restaurant Industry; Open 30D Positive Catalyst Watch CITI'S TAKE In the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) concluded yesterday (Xinhua, Dec 11th), the government highlighted its plan to "eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumption and boost service consumption" as one of the priorities in pro-consumption policy execution in 2026E. With this context, we reasonably expect government's easing of anti-e ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Sector - **Event**: Citi's 2025 China Conference - **Participants**: 44 China consumer companies were hosted, leading to the identification of five investment themes in the consumer sector [1][9] Investment Themes 1. **Shift Towards Experience Consumption**: - Consumers are increasingly valuing emotional experiences over physical goods, seeking happiness and self-expression through services [2] - Companies like Pop Mart provide affordable entertainment options that resonate with young consumers [2] 2. **Focus on Well-being**: - Younger generations are prioritizing spending on wellness, including health, fitness, and mindfulness [3] - Growth opportunities are seen in sectors like sportswear (Anta), health supplements (H&H), and beauty care (Giant Bio) [3] 3. **Rising Silver Economy**: - The aging population is driving demand for leisure and cultural experiences, benefiting industries like tourism (H World, Atour) and health supplements [4] 4. **Emerging New Channels**: - New offline channels such as membership stores and snack specialty chains are gaining traction, helping to offset declines in traditional distribution [5] 5. **Multi-brand Strategy**: - Companies are expanding their brand portfolios to meet diverse consumer demands, with a focus on easing channel inventory pressure [6] Company-Specific Insights Pop Mart (9992.HK) - **Sustainability of IP Operation**: Pop Mart is seen as a growth play due to its strong IP incubation capabilities. Concerns about growth sustainability are being addressed through new product launches [10] - **LABUBU Durability**: The company plans to enhance its LABUBU IP with new products and has postponed the launch of LABUBU 4.0 to 2026 [11] - **Overseas Expansion**: Plans to operate over 60 stores in the US by the end of 2025, with expansions into Canada and Mexico [13] Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - **Sales Growth Expectations**: Management expects high revenue growth in 2H25E driven by price adjustments and new store sales [16] - **Price Adjustment Strategy**: A recent price increase of over 25% aims to maintain a gross profit margin (GPM) of at least 40% [17] - **Store Expansion Plans**: Focus on expanding floor areas in existing malls rather than entering new ones [22] Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) - **Recovery in Table-Turn**: Management anticipates positive momentum in table-turn rates due to seasonal factors and a low comp base [30] - **Operational Improvements**: Plans to terminate loss-making pilot programs to save on operational expenses [32] China Resources Beer (0291.HK) - **Sales Performance**: The company reported low single-digit year-over-year sales growth, outperforming peers [34] - **Margin Outlook**: Expected GPM improvement in 2H25E, with a target dividend payout ratio increase to ~60% in 2025E [36] Midea Group (0300.HK) - **Sales Growth Target**: Management maintains a target of ~10% sales growth for 2025, with a focus on air-conditioning sales recovery [40] - **Overseas Business Expansion**: Plans to increase overseas production to ~30% and grow sales in developed markets through M&A [41] Li Ning (2331.HK) - **Sales Guidance**: Maintained guidance for 2025 with expectations of flat sales and high single-digit net profit margin growth [48] Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) - **Sales Guidance**: Management reiterated a mid-teen percentage growth target for 2025, with limited impact from price wars in the beverage sector [51] Cosmetics Sector - **Mixed Performance**: Domestic brands like Mao Geping and Chicmax showed strong growth, while others lagged behind [56] - **Growth Strategies**: Companies are focusing on online sales growth and improving operational efficiency to enhance margins [57][59] Additional Insights - **Consumer Trends**: There is a notable shift towards experiential consumption and wellness, indicating a changing landscape in consumer preferences [2][3] - **Operational Strategies**: Companies are adopting multi-brand strategies and optimizing supply chains to enhance profitability and meet diverse consumer demands [6][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed during the conference, highlighting the evolving dynamics within the China consumer sector and specific company strategies.

Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Stock Ticker**: 6862.HK - **Market Cap**: RMB 67,320 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$ 13.59 - **Price Target**: HK$ 17.50 (29% upside) [6][9] Key Points Business Performance - **Stabilization**: Haidilao's hotpot business operations are stabilizing and benefiting from a low base [3][4] - **Profit Contribution**: The delivery business and new brands are growth drivers, but their profit contributions remain non-material. The hotpot segment is the major profit contributor [4][3] - **Delivery Revenue Growth**: Accelerated by 60% in Q3 compared to 1H 2025, with average selling prices (ASP) between RMB 30-50 [8] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Projections**: Expected net revenue for 2025 is RMB 42,405 million, with a projected CAGR of 26% from 2025 to 2027 [6][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.73, with an increase to RMB 0.94 in 2026 [6] - **EBITDA**: Expected to be RMB 6,963 million in 2025, increasing to RMB 8,523 million in 2026 [6] Market Dynamics - **Macro Factors**: Key risks include macroeconomic conditions, particularly inflation, and external factors like delivery platform price wars affecting dine-in demand [3][11] - **Store Expansion**: Slowed due to weaker-than-expected performance of YEAH Qing, with a revised target of 80+ stores by the end of 2025 [8] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Target P/E of 17x 2026 earnings, reflecting cautious consumption sentiment amid macro uncertainties [9] - **Upside Risks**: Faster macro recovery, better-than-expected demand, and quicker new store openings could enhance performance [11] - **Downside Risks**: Include raw material cost inflation, delays in new store openings, and potential increases in staff costs affecting service quality [11] Additional Insights - **Table Turn Improvement**: Sequential improvement in table turn year-over-year, with low-single-digit growth observed in October [8] - **New Brand Performance**: Ju Gao Gao, a lower ASP hotpot format, has over 30 stores, with plans for more openings in 2026 [8] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Haidilao International Holding Ltd, highlighting its current performance, financial outlook, market dynamics, and associated risks.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haidilao International Holding Ltd is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HK$18.50, indicating an expected share price return of 31.5% and an expected total return of 33.3% [4][7]. Core Insights - Haidilao experienced low single-digit year-over-year growth in table-turn in October, showing significant month-over-month improvement compared to a largely flat performance in the third quarter [1][2]. - Management anticipates less pressure on table-turn in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to seasonally cold weather and a low comparison base from the previous year, along with positive momentum expected in the first quarter of 2026 due to a longer Chinese New Year holiday period [1][2]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved sequentially in the third quarter of 2025, reaching 60.2%, aided by menu optimization efforts and lower labor costs [3]. - Management plans to terminate several loss-making pilot programs in the first quarter of 2026, which is expected to yield operational expense savings for the full year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Table-turn growth in October was driven by holiday consumption, effective consumer activation campaigns, and remodeled stores catering to new scenarios such as nightlife and family gatherings [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) for dine-in increased slightly in the third quarter of 2025, attributed to a higher mix of premium items [2]. Store Operations - Haidilao opened 59 new stores and closed approximately 60 stores while transferring over 50 stores to franchisees in the first ten months of 2025 [2]. - Delivery sales grew approximately 100% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, with projected delivery sales reaching around RMB 2 billion for the full year [2]. Margin Analysis - The GPM improved sequentially in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the first half of 2025, supported by menu optimization and reduced labor costs [3]. - Despite the improvement, 16 new piloting brands remain loss-making on an aggregate basis, prompting management to consider program terminations [3][4]. Valuation - The target price of HK$18.50 is based on a 12x 2025E EV/adjusted EBITDA, aligning with the trading average of global restaurant peers [7].

Semiconductor Industry - SK Hynix has announced the successful development of HBM4, the world's first high-bandwidth memory standard, which is crucial for AI and high-performance computing [2][3] - HBM4 features doubled bandwidth and a 40% improvement in power efficiency compared to HBM3, utilizing 2,048 data transmission channels [3] - Mass production of HBM4 is set to begin in the second half of 2025, with collaboration from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. for the base die [3] Legal Challenges - The Walt Disney Company is facing a renewed legal challenge as a US appeals court reinstated a motion-capture copyright verdict against it, which could lead to significant damages [6][8] - The appeals court found sufficient evidence for the jury to determine Disney's vicarious liability for copyright infringement related to the 2017 live-action remake of "Beauty and the Beast" [8] Consumer Market Sentiment - Haidilao International Holding Ltd is experiencing a surge in bearish investor sentiment, reflecting concerns over its long-term growth outlook in a competitive consumer market [9]

Summary of Haidilao International Holding Ltd 1H25 Results Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haidilao International Holding Ltd - **Industry**: Consumer (Restaurant Sector) - **Region**: Asia Pacific, primarily China Key Financial Results - **Revenue**: - 1H24: Rmb21,491 million - 2H24: Rmb21,264 million - 1H25: Rmb20,703 million - Year-over-Year (YoY) decline: 4% [2] - **Operating Profit**: - 1H25: Rmb2,203 million - YoY decline: 18% [2] - **Net Profit**: - 1H25: Rmb1,759 million - YoY decline: 14% [2] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: - 1H25: 60.2%, down from 63.2% in 1H24 [2] - **Operating Profit Margin (OPM)**: - 1H25: 10.6%, down from 14.9% in 1H24 [2] - **Net Profit Margin (NPM)**: - 1H25: 8.5%, down from 12.6% in 1H24 [2] Cost Analysis - **Cost of Sales**: - Increased to Rmb8,243 million in 1H25, a 2% decrease YoY [2] - **Staff Costs**: - Rmb6,988 million in 1H25, a 2% decrease YoY [2] - **Other Expenses**: - Increased by 23% YoY, attributed to high business development and delivery platform fees [7] Operational Metrics - **Number of Restaurants**: - Mainland China: 1,299 (down from 1,320 in 2H24) [2] - **Table Turn**: - Mainland China: 3.8 times, down 9% YoY [2] - **Average Spending Per Guest**: - Mainland China: Rmb96, unchanged YoY [2] Market Position and Valuation - **Stock Rating**: Overweight [4] - **Price Target**: HK$17.50, representing an 18% upside from the current price of HK$14.88 [4] - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb73,885 million [4] - **Expected EPS Growth**: Projected 19% CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [8] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Faster macroeconomic recovery - Better-than-expected demand recovery - Accelerated new store openings [9] - **Downside Risks**: - Slower recovery in table turn - Raw material cost inflation - Delays in new store openings [9] Dividend Information - **Interim Dividend**: HK$0.338, a 14% decrease YoY, with a payout ratio of 95% [7] Conclusion Haidilao International Holding Ltd reported a challenging first half of 2025 with declines in revenue, operating profit, and net profit. The company faces a tough operating environment but maintains a positive long-term outlook with potential for recovery and growth in the coming years.