Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of various sectors in the Chinese consumer market, particularly focusing on e-commerce platforms like Tmall, Taobao, and JD. The overall growth across most sectors is described as muted, with specific categories showing significant declines in year-over-year (YoY) growth rates [1][12]. Category Performance - **Supplements/Infant Milk Formula/Dairy**: - Supplements grew by 9% YoY, Infant Milk Formula (IMF) by 2%, and Dairy by 1% [1][12]. - **Declining Categories**: - Beer saw a decline of 19%, Beauty products declined by 9%, Small kitchen appliances by 7%, Sportswear by 6%, and Sports shoes by 4% YoY [1][12]. - **Flat Performance**: - Pet foods and Women's clothing remained flat YoY [1][12]. Brand Performance - **Domestic vs. MNC Brands in Cosmetics**: - Multinational Corporations (MNCs) outperformed local brands in October, attributed to easier bases and favorable platform support. Estee Lauder and Kose led with 33% and 32% YoY growth, respectively [2][29]. - Local brands like Mao Geping and Botanee grew by 33% and 11% YoY, while Proya and Giant saw declines of 24% and 25% YoY [2][28][29]. Sportswear Insights - Niche MNC brands continued to outperform larger brands, with product cycles playing a significant role in performance disparities. For instance, Adidas showed solid momentum, while Nike did not perform as well [3]. - Weather-sensitive brands like Bosideng and Uniqlo experienced growth due to colder weather in Northern China [3]. Sales Recognition Practices - The growth rates for October may be distorted due to sales recognition practices related to pre-sales and returns during the Double-11 shopping festival. A combined analysis of October and November data is recommended for a clearer picture [7]. Notable Brand Performers - **Outperforming Brands**: Lululemon, Adidas, Roborock, Pop Mart, and Maogeping [8]. - **Underperforming Brands**: QuadHA, Nutrilon, Fancl, Carlsberg, and Comfy [8]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of omni-channel strategies being executed by brands, indicating that online sales may not fully reflect overall performance due to offline sales channels [3]. - The performance of various categories is further detailed in the exhibits, showing YoY trends and market share changes for key brands in the infant milk formula and supplements sectors [19][20][22][25]. Conclusion - The overall consumer market in China is experiencing stagnant growth with significant variances across categories and brands. MNCs are generally outperforming local brands, particularly in cosmetics, while certain sectors like sportswear are seeing a bifurcation in performance based on brand strategies and external factors like weather.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on various sectors, with specific "Buy" ratings for companies such as AIA Group, ASMPT, Atour, Hengrui, Sunny Optical, Tencent, and others [13][14][28][33]. Core Insights - The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) emphasizes technological innovation, consumption rebalancing, and building a strong domestic market, which are expected to drive growth in sectors like technology, healthcare, and renewables [14][29]. - The report anticipates a stable external environment for China, with net exports remaining a key growth driver despite potential challenges from high bases and external demand uncertainties [7]. - The healthcare sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary of government policies, with a focus on innovation and globalization, particularly in medical devices and pharmaceuticals [29]. - The consumer sector is shifting towards experience and service consumption, with a growing emphasis on well-being and the silver economy, indicating potential growth areas for companies in these segments [27]. Economics - The report projects a growth target of around 5.0% YoY for 2026, with a focus on policy continuity and structural support for consumption [7]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to become a focal point, with potential for significant movements as trade tensions ease and internationalization efforts continue [7]. Commodities - The report notes a shift in China's commodity fundamentals due to economic transitions, with a focus on domestic demand and energy self-sufficiency [9][10]. - The Action Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry indicates a shift towards high-quality growth, with supply growth expected to remain constrained [9]. Sector Views - **Autos and Parts**: The sector is poised for growth driven by advancements in Robotaxi and ADAS technologies, with key players expected to benefit from commercialization efforts [19]. - **Banks**: The banking sector is expected to outperform due to positive earnings growth and attractive dividend yields, particularly among large H-share banks [22]. - **Brokers**: The report highlights a trend of households reallocating wealth into equities, benefiting brokers as market proxies [26]. - **Consumer**: Key investment themes include a shift towards experiential consumption and a focus on well-being, with specific companies identified as top buys [27][28]. - **Healthcare**: Innovation and globalization are seen as critical drivers, with a focus on companies with strong pipelines and global expansion capabilities [29]. - **Insurance**: The sector is viewed positively, with opportunities arising from comprehensive enhancements across various business lines [33]. Top Buys - The report lists several top buy recommendations across sectors, including AIA Group, Hengrui, Tencent, and Anta, among others, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [13][14][28][33].

Core Insights - Norfolk Southern has launched a new domestic interline service with Union Pacific, connecting Kentucky's manufacturing base to key domestic markets and global trade corridors [1][2] - The service aims to support American manufacturers, particularly in Kentucky, which is a significant production and distribution hub [2] - The merger between Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific, pending approval, could create the first coast-to-coast transcontinental freight railroad, enhancing growth opportunities [2] Company Developments - Norfolk Southern is focusing on expanding its terminal footprint in Louisville to better serve the domestic market, having previously concentrated on international intermodal [4] - GE Appliances, located in Louisville, is a major anchor customer for the new service, contributing $12.8 billion annually to Kentucky's GDP and supporting over 38,000 jobs [5] Industry Context - Kentucky ranks in the top 10 states for consumer goods manufacturing, with over 6,000 facilities and 260,000 employees, contributing $47.5 billion to the state's GDP [3] - The state specializes in electric vehicle battery production, automotive, aerospace, and bourbon exports, with Louisville providing direct access to major transportation routes [3]

Core Insights - Asian companies, especially in China, are shifting their supply chains towards Europe as part of a structural transformation, moving away from reliance on the US [1][2] - The US tariff situation is significantly impacting manufacturing costs, prompting companies to diversify their supply chains [2] Investment Trends - Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the EU and UK surged by 47% to €10 billion (US$11.7 billion) in 2024, marking the first major rebound since 2016 [3] - The share of total Chinese FDI in the EU and UK increased to 19.1% in 2024 from 15.4% in 2023, while the US attracted less than €2 billion, accounting for only 4% of global Chinese outbound FDI [3] Sector-Specific Developments - Electric vehicle (EV) projects dominated Chinese greenfield FDI in Europe, attracting €4.9 billion, which is 83% of the total [4] - Notable Chinese investments in Europe include Contemporary Amperex Technology's €7.3 billion factory in Hungary, expected to start production by the end of 2025, and BYD's first EU factory in Hungary, set to begin production next year [5] - Chinese home appliance and consumer electronics companies are also expanding in Europe, exemplified by Haier's acquisition of Carrier's Dutch refrigeration division for €716 million and Midea's increasing sales in the region [6]

Core Viewpoint - Whirlpool Corp is raising concerns with the Trump administration regarding widespread tariff evasion by foreign competitors, which it claims undermines U.S. manufacturing [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Evasion Claims - Whirlpool alleges that numerous foreign manufacturers are undervaluing their imports to avoid tariffs, based on federal import data [1][2]. - A significant decline in declared customs values for various appliances was noted, with garbage disposals from China dropping from an average of $21 to under $8, gas ranges from Thailand falling to $175, and washing machines from South Korea plummeting from $838 to $73 [3]. Group 2: Company Position and Actions - Whirlpool produces 80% of its U.S.-bound appliances domestically and suspects competitors like Samsung, LG, and Haier of undervaluing imports [4]. - The company has communicated its concerns to U.S. Customs and Border Protection but has not yet filed a formal complaint [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In July, Whirlpool reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.34, missing the consensus estimate of $1.78, with sales of $3.77 billion also falling short of the $3.89 billion estimate [8]. - The company lowered its EPS guidance from $8.75 to a range of $5.00 to $7.00, compared to the consensus estimate of $7.81, and adjusted its EPS guidance from $10 to between $6.00 and $8.00, against a consensus of $9.23 [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Consumer Sector - **Period Covered**: H125/Q225 results and H2 outlook - **Key Findings**: - Weighted average revenue and net profit grew by 11% and 12% YoY in H125, respectively, compared to 7% and 16% YoY in Q125, indicating a deceleration in net profit over Q2 [2][3] - 37 companies had positive EPS revisions while 36 had negative revisions, with the percentage of companies with positive revisions declining from 60% in Q125 to 51% in H125, although this still marks a YoY improvement from 41% in H124 [2][3] Earnings Performance - **New Consumer Names**: Companies like Younghui Superstores, Laopu, Pop Mart, Guming, and Arashi Vision are leading positive EPS revisions, with Yonghui Superstores showing the largest EPS revision for the next 12 months due to a potential turnaround in 2026 [2][3] - **Consumer Staples and Home Appliances**: Most companies in these sectors underperformed due to slowing demand recovery, intensifying competition, and phasing-out subsidies. However, established leaders like Nongfu, CR Beer, and Weilong showed positive EPS revisions [2][3] Market Performance - **MSCI China**: Delivered a 30% return YTD, with the Consumer Discretionary sector posting a 22% return, supported by resilient demand among new consumer names. The Consumer Staples sector lagged with a 19% return due to soft overall demand [2][3] Economic Indicators - **Retail Sales Growth**: China's retail sales grew by 4.0% YoY in July 2025, up from 2.7% YoY in July 2024. Restaurant sales rose by 1.1% YoY, down from 3.0% YoY a year ago, reflecting the impact of delivery subsidies [3][4] - **Government Policies**: Supportive policies introduced by the Chinese government, including childcare subsidies and interest subsidies on personal consumption loans, are expected to boost consumption in H2 [3][4] Stock Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: - Stocks benefiting from domestic consumption policies (e.g., Yum China, DPC Dash) - Value plays with decent shareholder returns (e.g., WH Group) - Structural growth opportunities (e.g., Pop Mart, China Pet Food) - Home appliance makers with overseas earnings potential (e.g., Roborock, Midea) [4][5] Sector-Specific Insights - **Agriculture**: Hog prices stable YoY in H125, with Muyuan increasing its dividend payout ratio to 47.5% [7] - **Baijiu Sector**: Notable revenue and NP declines in Q225, with Kweichow Moutai showing resilience [8] - **Beer Sector**: Yanjing Brewery and CR Beer reported revenue/NP growth, attributed to premium product growth [9] - **Beverages**: Freshly-made beverage chains reported strong revenue growth, driven by store expansion [10] - **Condiments and Frozen Food**: Sluggish sales in Q225, with Yihai expected to accelerate growth in H225 [11] - **Dairy**: Liquid milk sales under pressure, while infant milk formula showed recovery signs [12] - **Pet Food**: Strong domestic growth, with both China Pet Foods and Gambol reporting 40% YoY growth [14] - **Next-Generation Tobacco**: RLX and Smoore saw strong revenue growth, with RLX benefiting from regulatory tailwinds [15] Conclusion - The Greater China consumer sector is experiencing a mixed performance with notable divergences among companies. While some new consumer names are thriving, traditional sectors like consumer staples and home appliances are facing challenges. Government policies aimed at boosting consumption may provide a tailwind for the sector in the second half of the year.

Core Viewpoint - Tongda is expected to recover earnings in 1H25 with projected revenue of HK$2,802 million and net profit of HK$59 million, reflecting a year-on-year decrease in revenue and a significant increase in net profit due to prior losses from business restructuring and impairment provisions [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The estimated revenue for 1H25 is HK$2,802 million, representing a 6% decrease year-on-year, while net profit is projected to increase by 359% year-on-year [2] - Excluding disposed business, Tongda's revenue is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year in 1H25, driven by consumer electronics and household & sports goods [1] - Gross profit margin (GPM) is anticipated to improve to 15.7% in 1H25 compared to 15% in 1H24 [1] Group 2: Business Outlook - The outlook for 2H25 and 2026 is positive, with expected order wins from Samsung and Huawei, increased adoption of glass fiber casing, and momentum in Smart Tech [3] - The smartphone casing segment is projected to benefit from order wins and glass fiber casing adoption, while Smart Tech is expected to see growth from new projects with Ikea and increased capacity in Malaysia [3] - Home appliances are forecasted to experience stable single-digit growth driven by orders from Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, and networking is set to ramp up with new orders at the Vietnam plant starting from 3Q25 [3] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The recommendation to maintain a BUY rating is based on solid earnings recovery and attractive valuation metrics [4] - The new target price (TP) is set at HK$0.123, reflecting a higher P/E ratio of 6.6x for FY25E, which is still at a 30% discount to the 10-year average forward P/E of 9.0x [4] - The stock is considered undervalued, particularly due to its 66.2% shareholding in the A-share subsidiary Tongda Smart Tech and a net cash position of HK$635 million for FY24 [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed Core Insights - China's economy appears stable with a focus on boosting demand and improving consumer sentiment, despite challenges in the property market [1][4] - The property market remains fragile but stable, with government policies aimed at stimulating demand rather than supply [5][10] - Exporters are shifting production to Southeast Asia and Mexico due to high costs in the US, leading to potential price increases for Chinese products [1][5] - Industrial technology is advancing, with Chinese companies catching up to Western suppliers in automation and AI [1][28] - Datacenter construction is expected to significantly increase in 2025 due to AI adoption, with a potential doubling in compute buildout [1][6] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in China is stable, with minimal panic regarding tariffs and a notable focus on demand-side stimulus [4][8] - Consumer sentiment is increasingly important, with government efforts to boost consumption following trade negotiations [4][10] Property Market - The property market is stabilized by demand-side policies, but improvement is fading, and the government is focused on fixing this part of the economy [5][11] - Transaction volumes in the secondary housing market are performing better than new housing, with a notable divergence between luxury and ordinary homes [7][10] Export and Production Shifts - Exporters are moving production to existing hubs in Southeast Asia and Mexico, avoiding the US due to high costs [5][18] - Chinese appliance companies are successfully penetrating overseas markets, particularly in the EU and North America [13][19] Industrial Technology - The discrete automation market is showing signs of recovery, with Chinese companies developing competitive technologies in software and AI [28][39] - Shenzhen Inovance is gaining market share in industrial automation, focusing on customized solutions and responsiveness to customer demands [30][32] Datacenter and AI Adoption - AI adoption is accelerating, with significant investments expected in datacenter infrastructure by 2025 [6][39] - Companies are taking a pragmatic approach to AI integration, looking for validated use cases before large-scale implementation [6][39] Company-Specific Insights - Midea's domestic sales are expected to see single-digit growth, driven by a replacement cycle rather than new demand [13][21] - Haier is experiencing growth in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, while maintaining a focus on the US and EU [19][24] - Hisense is benefiting from subsidy policies, leading to revenue growth in both domestic and international markets [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a consistent sector preference, favoring sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while being less favorable towards apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, discretionary small kitchen appliances, jewelry, and non-super-premium spirits [11]. Core Insights - Consumption in China has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth improving to +4.6% year-over-year in 1Q25, and companies in the coverage reporting an average growth of 14% compared to 12% in 4Q24 [1]. - Despite the positive growth, companies remain cautious about the outlook due to ongoing volatility and external factors such as US-China tariff developments impacting consumer confidence [2][1]. - Margin performance in 1Q25 was mixed, with some companies benefiting from favorable raw material prices and cost control, while others faced risks from marketing investments and competition [1]. - Companies are generally maintaining disciplined pricing strategies and healthier inventory levels, although some categories like spirits and sportswear are experiencing challenges due to demand pressures [1]. - The impact of tariffs on earnings and consumer sentiment is significant, with companies cautious about the second half of 2025 amid uncertainties [2]. Summary by Sections Key Findings from 1Q25 Results - Retail sales growth improved to +4.6% year-over-year, with coverage companies reporting an average growth of 14% [1]. - Labor Day consumption growth accelerated, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [1]. Expectations for 2Q25 - Companies are cautious about the outlook for 2H25 due to tariff uncertainties, although those with market share gain opportunities may be more resilient [2]. Sector/Stock Preferences - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while least preferred sectors include apparel/footwear OEM and furniture [11]. Macro Data Points - The report notes that macroeconomic data points are solid, but ongoing tariff developments and policy support need to be monitored [11]. Valuation Methodology - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology and the potential risks associated with it [11].

Summary of China Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Stock Market - **Key Focus**: US investors' interest in Chinese stocks and the impact of US tariffs on the Chinese economy Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Interest**: US investors are showing significant interest in Chinese stocks, with the highest level of inquiries in the last three years. However, only 20% of US investors have overweight or neutral positions in Chinese stocks, indicating potential upside [1][4] 2. **Impact of US Tariffs**: A 10% rise in US tariffs is estimated to reduce China's GDP growth by 0.6% [3] 3. **Market Rally Sustainability**: Questions were raised about the sustainability of the recent rally in the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets, particularly driven by the tech sector [2][3] 4. **Government Policies**: Anticipation of new government policies aimed at stimulating the Chinese economy, especially in response to US tariff increases [5][6] 5. **Sector Recommendations**: Positive outlook on sectors such as technology, internet, transportation (tourism-related), and certain consumer sub-sectors. Traditional sectors may benefit from state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms [6][4] Additional Important Points 1. **Geopolitical Concerns**: US investors remain cautious due to geopolitical risks associated with investing in China [4] 2. **Domestic Consumption**: Expected deceleration in domestic consumption growth in the second half of 2025 due to high base effects from the previous year [5] 3. **Investor Segmentation**: Chinese investors and certain value-oriented funds have a higher exposure to Chinese stocks compared to global investors, who are generally underweight [4] 4. **Upcoming Events**: Potential announcements regarding trade policies and supply-side reforms in industries such as steel and solar energy [5] 5. **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuations of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and CSI300 are around historical means, suggesting potential for investment [6] Key Questions from Investors 1. What is the expected impact of US tariffs on the PRC economy? 2. How will the PRC government respond to US tariff increases? 3. Is the recent stock market rally sustainable? 4. What are the expected government policies to stimulate domestic consumption? 5. What is the outlook for the PRC property market and interest rates? [3]