Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** sector, particularly the **metals** industry, highlighting a tight year for metals [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cement Production**: Expected output in December 2025 is projected at **144 million tons**, reflecting a **6.6% YoY decline**. The total output for 2025 is estimated at **1,693 million tons**, down **6.9% YoY** [6][6]. - **Finished Steel**: Anticipated output for December 2025 is **115 million tons**, with a **3.8% YoY decrease**. The total for 2025 is **1,446 million tons**, showing a **3.1% YoY increase** [6][6]. - **Crude Steel**: Projected output for December 2025 is **68 million tons**, down **10.3% YoY**, with a total of **961 million tons** for 2025, a **4.4% YoY decline** [6][6]. - **Aluminum Production**: December 2025 output is expected to be **4 million tons**, a **3.0% YoY increase**, with a total of **45 million tons** for 2025, reflecting a **2.4% YoY increase** [6][6]. - **Copper Production**: December 2025 output is projected at **440,000 tons**, down **21.4% YoY**, with a total of **5,320,000 tons** for 2025, a **6% YoY decline** [6][6]. - **Automobile Production**: December 2025 output is expected to be **3 million units**, down **2.8% YoY**, while total production for 2025 is projected at **35 million units**, up **9.8% YoY** [6][6]. - **Electricity Generation**: Expected to reach **859 billion KWh** in December 2025, with a **0.1% YoY increase** and a total of **9,716 billion KWh** for 2025, reflecting a **2.2% YoY increase** [6][6]. Policy Changes - The **2026 Trade-in Subsidy Policy** for automobiles will see a reduction in the first tranche of fund allocation from **Rmb 81 billion** in 2025 to **Rmb 62.5 billion** in 2026 [8][8]. - Subsidies for **New Energy Vehicles (NEVs)** will shift from a fixed amount to a percentage of the vehicle price, capped at **Rmb 20,000** [8][8]. Real Estate Market Insights - **Residential Sales Value**: Expected to decline to **Rmb 11,662 billion** in 2023, down **6.5% YoY**, with a recovery projected to **Rmb 14,997 billion** in 2025 [10][10]. - **New Residential Starts**: Anticipated to decrease to **1,989 million sqm** in 2024, with a further decline to **954 million sqm** in 2025 [10][10]. - **Average Selling Price**: Expected to stabilize around **Rmb 10,442 per sqm** in 2025, reflecting a **0.7% YoY increase** [10][10]. Additional Insights - The **mining sector** is projected to see a **5.4% YoY increase** in added value, while the **ferrous metals** sector is expected to grow by **0.7% YoY** [6][6]. - The **non-ferrous metals** sector is anticipated to grow by **4.8% YoY** [6][6]. - **Investment in Property**: Expected to decline significantly, with a total of **Rmb 420 billion** in 2025, down **36.8% YoY** [6][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the metals and real estate sectors in China.

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - January 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the impact of high commodity prices on demand and supply dynamics across various sectors. Key Points Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks are mostly in line with past seasonal trends as of mid-January, with **solar and machinery** sectors showing weakness while **battery** demand remains strong [1] - The surge in metal prices has led to notable changes in downstream demand across sectors such as **consumer electronics**, **hardware manufacturing**, **copper cables**, and **aluminum** in industrial and construction areas, resulting in weaker or delayed orderbooks and rising metal inventories [1] - High-frequency data indicates that in the first two weeks of January, Chinese demand is down **1-9% year-over-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **3-10% YoY** for aluminum and copper, while flat steel demand is up **3% YoY** [1] Supply Dynamics - Supply conditions remain heterogeneous, with consistent feedback on **cement capacity** cleaning up and ongoing capacity discipline in **coal**, but lackluster control in **steel production** [1] - Margin and pricing for **steel**, **copper**, **aluminum**, and **lithium** have improved, while **cement** and **coal** prices have remained stable [1] Sector-Specific Insights - **Cement**: Demand is lower, with a **1-9% YoY** decline noted [1] - **Aluminum and Copper**: Demand has deteriorated significantly amid high prices, with a **3-10% YoY** decline reported [1] - **Steel**: Margins have improved, but production control remains weak [1] - **Battery Materials**: Strong demand persists, leading to price hikes in solar modules, AC, LFP cathodes, and battery cells [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates a mixed month-over-month (MoM) trend in forward orderbooks, with **19%** of respondents reporting a pickup in January for downstream sectors and **6%** for basic materials [2] Additional Observations - The report notes that in regions with strong demand or better supply structures, price hikes have begun in specific materials, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The overall sentiment reflects caution due to high commodity prices suppressing demand, particularly in sectors sensitive to price fluctuations [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of high commodity prices affecting demand and supply across various sectors. While some areas like battery materials show resilience, others like aluminum and copper are facing significant demand challenges. The mixed feedback from producers suggests a cautious outlook moving forward, with potential opportunities in regions with strong demand dynamics.

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - December 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting trends in demand and pricing for various commodities including steel, copper, aluminum, cement, and coal. Key Points Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks are mostly in line with past seasonal trends as of mid-December, with specific sectors like appliances, solar, construction, and machinery showing weaker demand [1] - Demand for **copper** and **paper packaging** has weakened, while other commodities remain on track [1] - Current Chinese demand is reported to be **3-10% lower year-over-year** for cement and construction steel, and **2-8% lower** for flat steel, copper, and aluminum [1] Pricing and Margins - Despite rising prices for copper and aluminum, the demand response has not been destructive to orderbooks, indicating a cautious procurement pace among end users [1] - There are signs of marginal improvement in steel margins, reflected in higher unit profits, although overall supply work on steel remains limited [1] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for steel, copper, and lithium, while coal prices have softened, and cement and aluminum prices have remained stable [1] Supply Dynamics - In bulk commodities, general demand has been weak, but policy measures on supply for cement and coal remain intact, including preparations for capacity cuts related to disqualified clinker capacity, which accounts for **4-10%** of total capacity in major producers [1] - Consistent coal supply discipline is maintained through control of excess production and safety inspections [1] Month-over-Month Changes - A proprietary survey indicates that the forward orderbook trend has softened month-over-month, with **11%** of respondents in downstream sectors and **14%** in basic materials reporting a month-over-month pickup in December [2] Additional Insights - The report includes various downstream demand snapshots across sectors such as infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and power, transport, and exports [8] - The report also discusses the implications of commodity price changes and potential risks associated with investment decisions in the basic materials sector [9] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is experiencing signs of bottoming out in bulk commodities, with high metal prices not significantly damaging demand. However, the overall demand remains subdued, and careful monitoring of supply and pricing dynamics is essential for stakeholders in the sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Traditional Materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 - **Preferred Commodities**: Gold, copper, and aluminum are favored due to supportive macro and micro factors [1][8] Core Insights Copper - **Demand Growth**: Strong demand growth expected from Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with suppliers reporting over 50% demand growth for 2026 [2] - **Supply Disruptions**: Anticipated widening of the global copper supply deficit due to three major supply disruptions [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining and CMOC are highlighted for their expected 10-11% copper volume CAGR from 2025 to 2028 [3] Aluminum - **Supply Constraints**: Expected supply tightness due to potential shutdowns and delays in production restarts [4] - **Margin Expansion**: Anticipated sustainable margin expansion for aluminum smelters due to increasing demand and limited supply [4] - **Key Picks**: Chalco, Hongqiao, and China Shenhuo are identified as key investment opportunities in the aluminum sector [4] Gold - **Supportive Macro Environment**: Continued support for gold prices expected from US rate cuts and ongoing purchases by ETFs and central banks [5] - **Volume Growth**: Zijin Gold International is projected to achieve 30% volume growth in 2026, making it a key investment pick [5] Steel - **Production Cuts**: Limited production cuts expected in 2026, with demand anticipated to decline by over 2% [6] - **Export Quota Speculation**: Market expectations are rising regarding potential export quota systems in China [6] Coal - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Sufficient supply amid lukewarm demand is expected to pressure coal prices, with average prices projected at approximately Rmb720/t in 2026 [7] - **Renewable Energy Impact**: Anticipated continued market share gain for renewable power, leading to a slight drop in thermal coal demand [7] Additional Insights - **Market Ratings**: Various companies in the materials sector have been rated with Overweight (OW), Equal-weight (EW), and Underweight (UW) based on their expected performance and market conditions [9][12][13] - **Price Targets**: Adjustments to price targets for several companies have been made based on updated commodity price forecasts and market conditions [19][20] - **EPS Changes**: Significant changes in EPS estimates for various companies, reflecting adjustments in market expectations and commodity price forecasts [18][19] Conclusion - The outlook for traditional materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 is bullish, particularly for gold, copper, and aluminum, driven by strong demand and supply constraints. Investment opportunities are identified in specific companies within these sectors, while challenges remain in steel and coal markets.

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor (November 2025) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting signs of **weaker demand** across various sectors, including white goods, renewables, and construction, which are experiencing a sequential deterioration beyond seasonal factors [1][1][1]. - **Infrastructure** projects are at multi-year low start rates due to funding challenges from local governments [1][1][1]. - The **automotive sector** remains robust currently, but concerns are emerging for the first quarter of 2026 [1][1][1]. - **Energy Storage System (ESS) batteries** are seeing accelerated growth, with positive expectations for 2026 based on producer feedback [1][1][1]. Demand Trends - Current demand in China is reported to be **7-12% lower year-on-year** for cement and construction steel, and **5-10% lower** for flat steel, copper, and aluminum [1][1][1]. - Finished goods inventory has increased, primarily due to metal fabrications and selected appliances and machinery [1][1][1]. - The **forward orderbook trend** is mostly stable month-on-month, with **61%** of respondents indicating an increase in downstream sectors and **35%** in basic materials for November [2][2][2]. Supply Dynamics - On the supply side, there is excess production and safety inspections leading to a contraction in output in key coal-producing regions [1][1][1]. - Incremental changes in cement and steel production have been limited [1][1][1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for coal, aluminum, copper, and lithium, while steel prices have softened and cement prices remain stable [1][1][1]. Key Statistics - The report indicates a **deceleration in demand** due to high commodity prices and the diminishing momentum from trade-in programs [1][1][1]. - The **current demand** metrics reflect a significant decline across various materials, indicating potential risks for investors in the basic materials sector [1][1][1]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is facing challenges with weaker demand across multiple sectors, particularly in construction and infrastructure, while some segments like automotive and ESS batteries show resilience. The supply side is also adjusting to these demand changes, with implications for pricing and production strategies moving forward.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on various sectors, with specific "Buy" ratings for companies such as AIA Group, ASMPT, Atour, Hengrui, Sunny Optical, Tencent, and others [13][14][28][33]. Core Insights - The 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) emphasizes technological innovation, consumption rebalancing, and building a strong domestic market, which are expected to drive growth in sectors like technology, healthcare, and renewables [14][29]. - The report anticipates a stable external environment for China, with net exports remaining a key growth driver despite potential challenges from high bases and external demand uncertainties [7]. - The healthcare sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary of government policies, with a focus on innovation and globalization, particularly in medical devices and pharmaceuticals [29]. - The consumer sector is shifting towards experience and service consumption, with a growing emphasis on well-being and the silver economy, indicating potential growth areas for companies in these segments [27]. Economics - The report projects a growth target of around 5.0% YoY for 2026, with a focus on policy continuity and structural support for consumption [7]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to become a focal point, with potential for significant movements as trade tensions ease and internationalization efforts continue [7]. Commodities - The report notes a shift in China's commodity fundamentals due to economic transitions, with a focus on domestic demand and energy self-sufficiency [9][10]. - The Action Plan for the Nonferrous Metals Industry indicates a shift towards high-quality growth, with supply growth expected to remain constrained [9]. Sector Views - **Autos and Parts**: The sector is poised for growth driven by advancements in Robotaxi and ADAS technologies, with key players expected to benefit from commercialization efforts [19]. - **Banks**: The banking sector is expected to outperform due to positive earnings growth and attractive dividend yields, particularly among large H-share banks [22]. - **Brokers**: The report highlights a trend of households reallocating wealth into equities, benefiting brokers as market proxies [26]. - **Consumer**: Key investment themes include a shift towards experiential consumption and a focus on well-being, with specific companies identified as top buys [27][28]. - **Healthcare**: Innovation and globalization are seen as critical drivers, with a focus on companies with strong pipelines and global expansion capabilities [29]. - **Insurance**: The sector is viewed positively, with opportunities arising from comprehensive enhancements across various business lines [33]. Top Buys - The report lists several top buy recommendations across sectors, including AIA Group, Hengrui, Tencent, and Anta, among others, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [13][14][28][33].

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - October 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, particularly construction materials, steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium sectors. Key Points Construction and Demand Trends - End-user orderbooks showed a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-October, aligning with seasonal trends. However, infrastructure construction is deteriorating faster than anticipated, with weakened project start rates. The impact of central government special funding remains unclear based on feedback from construction dealers and producers of cement and construction steel [1][2][3] - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be **11-18% lower year-over-year (YoY)**, while demand for copper and aluminum is **5-6% lower YoY**. Flat steel demand has increased by **2% YoY** [2][3] Supply Side Dynamics - There have been no significant cuts in steel production, while corrections in excess production and safety inspections in coal continue. Domestic disruptions in copper scrap have deepened [2] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium, while steel prices have softened [2] Producer Feedback and Order Trends - A proprietary survey indicates that **61%** of respondents in downstream sectors and **26%** in basic materials reported an MoM increase in orderbooks for October. Conversely, **26%** of respondents indicated a lower MoM trend [3] Price and Margin Analysis - Margin improvements have been noted across several materials, including coal, cement, aluminum, copper, and lithium, while steel margins have softened [2] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the basic materials sector reflects a cautious outlook due to the declining trends in construction and infrastructure projects, despite some positive signals in specific sectors like auto/EV and battery production [1][2] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of government funding on infrastructure projects, as its effects are yet to be fully realized [1] - The data suggests a potential shift in investment focus towards sectors showing resilience, such as auto/EV and battery production, while traditional construction materials may face ongoing challenges [1][2] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the October 2025 report on the China Basic Materials industry, emphasizing the current demand trends, supply dynamics, and market sentiment.

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - September 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current demand and supply dynamics affecting pricing and margins in various sectors including construction, automotive, and metals [1][2]. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** have shown a month-over-month (MoM) increase as of mid-September, consistent with seasonal patterns observed in previous years [1]. - **Aggregated demand** is driven by positive growth in sectors such as **automotive**, **battery production**, and **metal fabrication**, alongside mild seasonal increases in **construction** [1]. - Traditional sectors like **white goods**, **property**, and **machinery** are experiencing weaker demand [1]. Supply Disruptions - Ongoing **supply disruptions** are noted, particularly in: - **Lithium Lepidolite** production - A correction in excess **coal** production - Tightness in domestic **copper scrap** supply [1]. - The Chinese government has reaffirmed its policy on supply management (anti-involution) as a long-term strategy, which is expected to support overall commodity pricing and margins [1]. Pricing and Margin Outlook - Current demand for **cement** and **construction steel** is reported to be 1-6% lower year-over-year (YoY), while **copper** and **aluminium** demand is down 5-7% YoY. In contrast, **flat steel** demand has increased by 3% YoY [1]. - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for **aluminium** and **copper**, while **steel**, **coal**, and **lithium** prices have softened, with **cement** prices remaining stable [1]. Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicates that **52%** of respondents in downstream sectors reported an improvement in orderbook trends for August, while **32%** of basic materials producers noted similar improvements [2]. - Conversely, **9%** of downstream respondents and **16%** of basic materials producers indicated a decline in orderbook trends [2]. Additional Insights - The report includes detailed snapshots of downstream demand across various sectors, including infrastructure, property, traditional manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and exports [7]. - Specific commodity analyses cover **steel**, **coal**, **cement**, **aluminium**, **copper**, and **lithium**, providing insights into their respective demand and pricing trends [7]. Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is currently experiencing a complex interplay of steady demand growth in certain sectors and ongoing supply disruptions, which collectively influence pricing and margin expectations. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and pricing dynamics [1][2].

Summary of China Basic Materials Monitor - July 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Basic Materials** industry, highlighting the current state of demand and supply dynamics as of July 2025. Key Points Demand Trends - **End-user orderbooks** showed a mild month-over-month (MoM) increase but remained at low levels, indicating weak overall demand [1] - **Infrastructure construction** has weakened significantly, with a noticeable deceleration in new project starts due to ongoing funding constraints and stringent payment requirements [1] - **Metal demand** has softened, with signs of inventory buildup in the supply chain, influenced by seasonal softness and a sequential correction in domestic solar demand [1] - Current Chinese demand is reported to be **7-11% lower year-over-year (YoY)** for cement and construction steel, and **1-10% lower** for copper, flat steel, and aluminum [1] Supply Dynamics - The determination on supply adjustments remains mixed, with: - **Steel production cuts** beginning but with heterogeneous targets discussed [1] - Local government commitments on capacity elimination in cement being absent [1] - Marginal coal miners showing reluctance to cut production amid poor pricing [1] - Surprises in the oversupplied lithium market due to mining license approval inspections [1] - Recent weeks have seen improvements in margins/pricing for steel, coal, and lithium, while cement, aluminum, and copper prices have weakened [1] Producer Feedback - A proprietary survey indicated that **31% of respondents** in downstream sectors and **30%** in basic materials reported a MoM pickup in July, while **25%** and **24%** indicated a lower MoM trend, respectively [2] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the **importance of funding** in infrastructure projects, which is currently constrained, affecting new project initiations [1] - The **mixed signals** in supply adjustments suggest a complex market environment where producers are navigating between demand pressures and pricing strategies [1] Conclusion - The China Basic Materials industry is experiencing a challenging environment characterized by weakening demand, mixed supply responses, and significant pressures on pricing and margins across various materials. The insights from producer feedback and high-frequency data provide a nuanced understanding of the current market dynamics, indicating potential risks and opportunities for investors in this sector.

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the basic materials sector, including Angang-H, Baosteel, Conch-A, and Zijin-A, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks with potential upside ranging from 22% to 51% [10]. Core Insights - The feedback from producers as of mid-May suggests that end-user order books were flat month-over-month (MoM), which is softer than past seasonal trends. Infrastructure recovery has paused, reflected in weak cement shipments and a lack of funding for new projects [1][2]. - Current Chinese demand for cement and construction steel is reported to be 12-14% lower year-over-year (YoY), while demand for copper has increased by 9% YoY. The demand for flat steel and aluminum is 1-3% lower YoY [1]. - The report highlights that while the supply chain is partially replacing US-bound shipments with production from other countries, the reduction in Chinese metal demand is less severe than initially feared [1]. Summary by Sections Downstream Demand Snapshots - The downstream order book trend was mostly stable MoM in May, with 25% of respondents indicating a pickup in the downstream sectors and 31% indicating a lower trend [2][3]. Steel Production - Steel production cuts are in preparation, and rush orders for exports are re-emerging. The report suggests that steel-making raw materials could potentially drop to sub US$80-90 per ton if production cuts are implemented [9]. Cement Market - The cement market has experienced a sudden deterioration, with current demand showing significant declines [9]. Aluminium and Copper - The report notes a disruption in Guinea bauxite supply affecting alumina, while copper demand remains more resilient than expected [9]. Coal Market - The coal market is characterized by very weak demand and pricing, indicating challenges for companies in this sector [9]. Lithium Market - The lithium market is facing a rising surplus, which may impact pricing and demand dynamics [9]. Paper Packaging - Improving shipment trends are noted in the paper packaging sector, driven by upcoming online shopping festivals and lower US-China tariffs [9].