Oaktree Capital Portfolio Manager Madelaine Jones, looks at European credit markets and the recent uptick in investor interest in an interview with Guy Johnson on Jan. 19. ...

Core Insights - Current market sentiment shows high valuations and enthusiasm around technology, particularly AI, but these valuations are not deemed excessive [1][2] - The absence of psychological excess suggests that the current market situation does not qualify as a bubble, despite comparisons to the dotcom era [4][5] Valuation Perspectives - The S&P 500 is currently considered expensive, with a PE ratio around 24 compared to a historical average of 16 [10] - Optimism in the market is supported by the presence of better companies with market dominance and growth potential, justifying higher multiples [11][12] Value Investing - Value investing should be approached with open-mindedness, distinguishing between small V (intrinsic worth) and big V (strict rules) [6][7] - In the context of AI and new technologies, traditional value assessments may be challenging, as future potential cannot easily be discounted to present value [8][9] Market Sentiment and Historical Context - The phrase "this time it's different" often accompanies market bubbles, raising concerns about the sustainability of current valuations [13]

So a lot of people look at the the moment that we are in right now and they see very high valuations and I don't know how you would deem sentiment but there's certainly a lot of enthusiasm around technology like AI. >> Are we in that moment. >> There's enthusiasm.There are high valuations. I I don't know enough about tech stocks or stocks in general or AI specifically to know whether the valuations are excessive. My response to date has been that the valuations are not crazy.High but not crazy. And when whe ...

Group 1: Market Performance and Key Players - The S&P 500 index has gained approximately 12% since the start of the year, despite concerns about economic stability due to tariff policies from the Trump administration [1] - The "Magnificent Seven" (Mag 7) tech companies, which include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, have significantly outperformed the equities benchmark, especially over the last two to three years [2] - Earnings growth in the second quarter of this year was concentrated in the Mag 7, which expanded earnings three times faster than other corporate cohorts [3] Group 2: Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia has outperformed the Mag 7 group, with its stock surging over 475% since late 2022, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and expansion in the data center ecosystem [4] Group 3: Concentration of Gains - The S&P 500's gains are heavily concentrated, with 58% of the index's two-year total return coming from the Mag 7 [5] Group 4: Direxion ETFs - Direxion offers two ETFs targeting the Mag 7: the Daily Magnificent 7 Bull 2X Shares (QQQU), which seeks 200% of the performance of the Indxx Magnificent 7 Index, and the Daily Magnificent 7 Bear 1X Shares (QQQD), which seeks the inverse performance [6][7] - The QQQU ETF has gained over 19% since the beginning of the year and nearly 63% in the trailing half-year period [10] - The QQQD ETF has lost more than 17% year-to-date, reflecting a downward trend [13] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The QQQU ETF shows strong technical strength, trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, although volume levels have been fading since April [12] - The QQQD ETF is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, with increased volume noted in August and September [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals. With the opening of the import window, the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices, while downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - The alumina market is influenced by policy changes and supply - demand imbalances. The overall supply is tight, and the actual demand is weak [15][31]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by overseas sanctions and domestic inventory changes. The domestic price is relatively resistant to decline compared with the external market [23]. - The zinc market has a bearish fundamental situation with increasing domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, but the LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The production of recycled lead is reduced due to losses, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [42][43]. - The nickel market has a large supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, waiting for macro changes [48]. - The stainless steel market is affected by external demand and cost factors. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - The tin market is in a tight - balance state of supply and demand. The supply of ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - The polysilicon market has an oversupply situation in August, but the spot price is rising. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [72]. - The lithium carbonate market may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise after the stabilization of the commodity index [77]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, down 0.05%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 732 lots to 460,600 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [2]. - **Important Information**: In July, China's scrap copper imports increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 183,200 tons, and refined copper exports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month to 118,398 tons. On August 20, Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing for the Nussir copper project in Norway, which is expected to be put into production in September 2027 [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the future interest - rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper ore has been alleviated, and the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term supply increase puts pressure on copper prices; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose by 80 yuan to 20,125 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 73 lots to 9,553 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [10]. - **Important Information**: The four - ministry notice affects the recycled aluminum industry. In July, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 85 yuan/ton compared with June, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan/ton. On August 21, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 66 tons [10][11][27][29]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the overall market supply is tight. The actual demand is weak [15][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the aluminum price; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [16][17][32][33]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose by 100 yuan to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,003 lots to 564,100 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [19]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal. The White House is considering a tri - party meeting. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed in July [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas sanctions on Russian aluminum and the Jackson Hole meeting affect the market. The domestic inventory decline may make the domestic price relatively resistant to decline [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the external market in the short - term; recommend short - term arbitrage strategies and waiting and seeing for options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose by 0.09% to 22,265 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1,549 lots to 216,200 lots. The spot trading in Shanghai was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with August 18. The safety inspection in northern lead - zinc mines has increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the terminal consumption is weak. The LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [38]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 fell by 0.45% to 16,740 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3,663 lots to 96,400 lots. The spot trading of refined lead was difficult [40]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the social inventory of lead ingots was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared with August 18 [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The consumption is weak, and the loss of recycled lead smelters is expanding, resulting in a reduction in production [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell by 360 yuan to 119,830 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,803 lots. The spot premium of different types of nickel increased [45][46]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 12,600 tons, and from January to June, the supply surplus was 180,000 tons [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel supply surplus is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2510 fell by 35 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,900 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [50]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel casting project in Zhejiang started construction. The sample inventory in Foshan decreased slightly, while the social inventory in 89 warehouses increased [51][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The external demand is affected by the global economy and tariffs, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and selling out - of - the - money put options [53][56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,960 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The spot price of tin ingots decreased [59]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined tin supply shortage was 3,500 tons, and from January to June, the supply shortage was 7,800 tons [60]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude affects the market. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. The market is in a tight - balance state [61][62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate; recommend waiting and seeing for options [63][64]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose by 3.66% to 8,635 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable [65][66]. - **Important Information**: A product of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to operate within a range; recommend participating in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts; recommend waiting and seeing for options [68]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly and closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The spot price of polysilicon increased [69][70]. - **Important Information**: The US government tightened the approval of renewable energy projects [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is an oversupply in August, but the spot price is rising, and it is recommended to buy on dips [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips; recommend conducting a positive arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options and buying call options [73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate 2511 fell by 140 yuan to 82,760 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 21,134 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. - **Important Information**: A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter. The tax department exposed tax - evasion cases in the "new three" fields. The new - energy vehicle market shows growth [75][76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options of 2511 [78][79][80].

Group 1 - Blue Moon Metals has secured at least $140 million in financing from Hartree Partners and Oaktree Capital for the early engineering of the Nussir copper project in Norway [1] - The financing includes a $25 million bridge loan, a $50 million senior secured term loan, and $70 million in precious metal streams [1] - The Nussir copper project is designated as a strategic critical raw materials project by the EU, aiming for production by September 2027 [1] Group 2 - The feasibility study published in 2023 estimates that underground operations at the Nussir copper mine will cost approximately $330 million, with a mining life of about 25 years [1] - The expected annual production of copper concentrate is around 25,000 tons, along with by-products such as silver [1] - The estimated cash production cost during the mine's lifespan is $1.38 per pound, placing it at the lower end of the industry cost range, with a total sustaining cost of approximately $1.60 per pound [1] Group 3 - The Nussir deposit has a copper grade of 1.01%, a silver grade of 14.6 grams per ton, and a gold grade of 0.14 grams per ton [2]

In his latest memo, billionaire investor Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital points out that US stocks are even pricier than they were at the start of 2025, even as the "big picture" has arguably deteriorated since then. What's going on? https://t.co/55Qpo2H2Jd ...

The amount of money chasing investments linked to AI is creating the “risk of excesses,” says Armen Panossian, co-CEO at Oaktree Capital https://t.co/l56J3Rar8X ...

Group 1 - Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: AMBC) is expected to receive $420 million from Oaktree Capital soon [1] - The company is engaged in ongoing discussions to acquire one or more businesses, which may attract new investors [1] - The independent investor emphasizes the importance of cash flow statements and unlevered free cash flow figures in evaluating companies [1] Group 2 - The investor typically focuses on established companies rather than growth stocks, analyzing financial metrics such as EV/FCF, net income, and EV/EBITDA [1] - The investor aims to contribute to the investment community by sharing insights and learning from others [1]