PresentationTimothy WojsRobert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division All right. Great. Good afternoon. Thanks for joining us. I'm Tim Wojs. I cover building products here at Bairds. We're delighted to have Stanley Black & Decker join us again at our Global Industrial Conference. Stanley is one of the world's largest tool companies, and they own several leading brands that include DEWALT, Stanley Craftsman, among others. From the company, we have President and CEO, Chris Nelson, up here with me on s ...

Summary of Stanley Black & Decker FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE: SWK) - **Industry**: Tools and Building Products - **Key Brands**: DeWalt, Stanley, Craftsman Core Points and Arguments 1. **Cost Reduction and Margin Goals**: The company is on track to achieve a $2 billion cost-out target by year-end, aiming for a margin goal of over 35% with margin expansion observed in the latest quarter despite previous setbacks due to tariffs [2][3][4] 2. **Balance Sheet Strengthening**: Plans to prune the aerospace fastening business to improve the balance sheet, targeting a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5 times [3][4] 3. **Organizational Changes**: Transitioning from a product-centric to a brand-centric approach, establishing General Managers for key brands to enhance customer engagement and innovation [6][7][8] 4. **Centralized Engineering**: Moving from a fragmented engineering structure to a centralized one to leverage scale and improve product development efficiency [9][12] 5. **Platform Product Strategy**: Defining platform products as those with over 70% common components, which enhances speed and productivity in product development [15][18] 6. **AI Utilization**: Implementing AI tools for customer feedback analysis and improving customer service efficiency, allowing sales teams to focus more on selling rather than administrative tasks [20][24][25] 7. **Field Resources Investment**: Increased field resources by over 600 in key growth areas, resulting in a doubling of conversion pipeline velocity compared to the previous year [28][29] 8. **Battery System Strategy**: Emphasizing the importance of battery platforms, with over 80% of customers purchasing tools within the same battery ecosystem, creating a competitive moat [36][37][38] 9. **Brand Revitalization**: Initiatives to revitalize the Stanley brand, focusing on product updates and targeting small residential contractors, while also leveraging Craftsman for international growth [41][44][45] Additional Important Insights - **Customer-Centric Focus**: The company is shifting towards understanding and solving customer problems rather than just focusing on product features [10][11] - **Operational Efficiency**: Efforts to reduce G&A costs while increasing sales and marketing investments, aiming for a more efficient organizational structure [33][34] - **Market Positioning**: DeWalt is positioned strongly in the pro market, with strategies in place to drive growth through targeted investments and field resources [39][40] - **Craftsman Brand Strategy**: Craftsman is viewed as a reclamation project, with expectations for growth to begin in late 2026 or early 2027 as new products are launched [45]

Core Insights - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.43 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.19, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.2% [1][9] - The company's net sales were $3.76 billion, slightly missing the consensus estimate of $3.77 billion, and remained flat compared to the same quarter last year [1][9] Segmental Performance - The Tools & Outdoor segment generated revenues of $3.26 billion, consistent with the year-ago quarter, while the Engineered Fastening segment reported revenues of $501 million, up 3% year over year [2][3] Margin Analysis - Cost of sales decreased by 2% year over year to $2.58 billion, leading to a gross profit increase of 5.2% to $1.18 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 150 basis points to 31.4% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 13.4% year over year to $461.0 million, with the margin increasing by 150 basis points to 12.3% [4] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - At the end of the third quarter, cash and cash equivalents stood at $268.3 million, down from $290.5 million at the end of fourth-quarter 2024, while long-term debt decreased to $4.70 billion from $5.6 billion [5] - In the first nine months of 2025, net cash generated by operating activities was $15.5 million, significantly lower than $427.8 million in the previous year, with free cash flow before dividends reported as negative $195.0 million [6] 2025 Guidance - The company anticipates total revenues to be in the range of a decline of 1% to flat year-over-year, with earnings projected between $2.55 and $2.70 per share, down from the previous expectation of $3.45 [7]

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the third quarter was $3.8 billion, flat compared to the prior year, with a 1% organic decline driven by a 5% increase in pricing and a 6% decrease in volume [16][18] - Adjusted gross margin rate was 31.6%, up 110 basis points year over year, primarily due to pricing strategies and supply chain efficiencies [17][25] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.3%, reflecting a 150 basis point improvement year over year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tools and outdoor segment revenue was approximately $3.3 billion, flat year over year, with a 2% organic revenue decline due to a 5% pricing benefit offset by a 7% volume decrease [18][20] - Engineered fastening segment revenue grew 3% on a reported basis and 5% organically, driven by a 4% volume increase and a 1% price benefit [22] - DEWALT brand maintained strong momentum with revenue expansion across all product lines and regions, reflecting targeted investments in innovation [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America organic revenue for tools and outdoor declined 2%, with end user demand starting strong but moderating later in the quarter [21] - In Europe, organic revenue was flat, with growth in the U.K. offset by softer conditions in France and Germany [22] - The rest of the world saw a 1% organic revenue decline, primarily due to market softness in Asia [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve a 35% adjusted gross margin while strengthening its balance sheet, focusing on activating brands, driving operational excellence, and accelerating innovation [7][15] - A strategic transformation program is on track to deliver $2 billion in cost reductions by year-end 2025, with $120 million in incremental pre-tax run rate cost savings achieved in the third quarter [28][30] - The company is reducing reliance on Chinese imports, targeting less than 10% of U.S. supply from China by mid-2026 [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a challenging macroeconomic environment but remains confident in achieving long-term financial goals through disciplined execution [16][40] - The outlook for 2025 anticipates total company sales to be flat to down 1%, with adjusted earnings per share expected to be approximately $4.55 [30][33] - Management emphasizes the importance of maintaining operational resilience and adapting to evolving market conditions [40] Other Important Information - The company recorded a $169 million pre-tax non-cash asset impairment charge in the third quarter, primarily related to brand prioritization strategy adjustments [31] - Free cash flow for the third quarter was $155 million, contributing to a full-year target of $600 million [36][37] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did volumes perform relative to expectations? - Management indicated that volumes were in line with expectations, starting strong but tapering towards the end of the quarter due to a non-standard promotional window [44][46] Question: What are the profit levers for the fourth quarter? - Operating profit is expected to expand due to gross margin improvements and SG&A expense reductions, with a target gross margin around 33% [49][50] Question: What is the impact of tariff inflation on pricing? - The second price increase is expected to be in the low single-digit range, with minimal impact from recent tariff changes [56][58] Question: How does the company view its position in the housing market? - Management believes the company is well-positioned to benefit from any future housing market recovery, focusing on building relationships and innovation during the current market retrenchment [80][84] Question: What progress has been made on USMCA compliance? - Significant progress has been made towards USMCA compliance, with no structural roadblocks anticipated [86][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the third quarter was $3.8 billion, flat compared to the prior year, with a 1% organic decline driven by a 5% increase in pricing and a 6% decrease in volume [16][18] - Adjusted gross margin rate was 31.6%, up 110 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to pricing strategies and supply chain efficiencies [17][25] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.3%, reflecting a 150 basis point improvement year-over-year [17] - Adjusted earnings per share was $1.43, including a $0.25 tax benefit [18][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tools and outdoor segment revenue was approximately $3.3 billion, flat year-over-year, with a 2% organic revenue decline due to a 5% pricing benefit offset by a 7% volume decrease [18][20] - DEWALT brand maintained strong momentum with revenue growth across all product lines and regions, reflecting targeted investments in innovation [20] - Engineered fastening segment revenue grew 3% on a reported basis and 5% organically, driven by a 4% volume increase [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America organic revenue declined 2%, consistent with overall segment performance, while Europe remained flat with growth in the U.K. offset by declines in France and Germany [21][22] - The aerospace business achieved over 25% organic growth, supported by strong demand for fasteners and fittings [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve a 35% adjusted gross margin while executing three strategic imperatives: activating brands with purpose, driving operational excellence, and accelerating innovation [7][15] - A focus on reducing U.S. supply from China to less than 10% by mid-2026 is part of the strategy to improve supply chain resiliency and achieve gross margin objectives [29][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a challenging macroeconomic environment but remains confident in achieving long-term financial goals through disciplined execution and strategic initiatives [16][40] - The company expects continued year-over-year expansion of adjusted gross margin, targeting around 33% for the fourth quarter [34][35] Other Important Information - The company has made substantial progress in its global cost reduction transformation program, achieving approximately $120 million in incremental pre-tax run rate cost savings in the third quarter [28] - A non-cash asset impairment charge of $169 million was recorded in the third quarter, primarily affecting three trade names [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did volumes perform relative to expectations? - Management indicated that volumes were in line with expectations, starting strong but tapering towards the end of the quarter due to a non-standard promotional window [44][46] Question: What are the main profit levers for the fourth quarter? - Profit expansion is expected from gross margin improvement and SG&A expense reduction, with a target gross margin around 33% [49][51] Question: What is the impact of tariff inflation on pricing? - The second price increase is expected to be in the low single-digit range, with minimal impact from recent tariff reductions [56][58] Question: How does the company view its position in the housing market? - Management believes the company is well-positioned to benefit from potential future housing market improvements, focusing on building relationships and innovation during the current market retrenchment [80][84] Question: What progress has been made on USMCA compliance? - Significant progress has been made, with no structural roadblocks anticipated, aiming to align with industry averages for compliance [86][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $3.8 billion, flat compared to the prior year, with a 1% organic decline driven by a 5% increase in pricing and a 6% decrease in volume [14][15] - Adjusted gross margin rate was 31.6%, up 110 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to pricing strategies and supply chain efficiencies [15][21] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.3%, reflecting a 150 basis point improvement year-over-year, mainly attributed to gross margin expansion [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Tools and Outdoor segment revenue was approximately $3.3 billion, flat year-over-year, with a 2% organic revenue decline due to a 5% pricing benefit offset by a 7% volume decrease [16][18] - DEWALT brand continued to show growth, with revenue expansion across all product lines and regions, reflecting targeted investments in innovation and market activation [17][19] - Engineered Fastening segment revenue grew 3% on a reported basis and 5% organically, driven by a 4% volume increase and a 1% price benefit [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America organic revenue declined 2%, consistent with overall segment performance, while Europe saw flat organic revenue with growth in the U.K. offset by softness in France and Germany [18][19] - The rest of the world experienced a 1% organic revenue decline, primarily due to market softness in Asia [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to achieve a 35% adjusted gross margin while strengthening its balance sheet, focusing on three strategic imperatives: activating brands with purpose, driving operational excellence, and accelerating innovation [6][10] - The transformation program has generated about $1.9 billion in pre-tax run rate cost savings since mid-2022, with a target of $2 billion by year-end 2025 [23][24] - The company is reducing reliance on Chinese imports, aiming to decrease U.S. supply from China to less than 10% by mid-2026 [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving strong long-term shareholder returns despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [14][35] - The company anticipates continued year-over-year expansion of adjusted gross margin, targeting around 33% for Q4 2025 [30][34] - Adjusted earnings per share for the full year is expected to be approximately $4.55, reflecting higher-than-anticipated production costs [26][29] Other Important Information - The company plans to allocate free cash flow in excess of dividends toward debt reduction and maintaining a strong balance sheet [32][33] - Total pre-tax non-GAAP adjustments for the year are estimated to range between $370-$400 million, primarily related to supply chain transformation and non-cash asset impairment charges [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: How did volumes perform relative to expectations? - Management indicated that volumes were in line with expectations, starting strong but tapering towards the end of Q3 due to a non-standard promotional window [36][37] Question: What are the profit levers for Q4? - Operating profit for Q4 is expected to expand due to gross margin improvements and SG&A reductions, with a targeted gross margin around 33% [39][40] Question: What is the impact of tariff inflation on pricing? - The second price increase is expected to be in the low single-digit range, with minimal impact from recent tariff changes [42][43] Question: How does the company view its position in the housing market? - Management does not see immediate catalysts for housing market growth but believes the company is well-positioned to benefit when the market improves [56] Question: What progress has been made on USMCA compliance? - The company is making significant progress towards USMCA compliance, which is a key part of its mitigation strategy [58]

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Financial Performance - Total revenue was $3.8 billion, consistent with the prior year, as price (+5%) and currency (+1%) offset lower volume (-6%) [8, 10] - Adjusted gross margin was 31.6%, an increase of 110 basis points year-over-year, driven by pricing and supply chain transformation benefits [8, 10, 17] - Adjusted EPS was $1.43, inclusive of a tax rate benefit [8, 10] - Net cash from operating activities was $221 million, and free cash flow was $155 million [10] Guidance and Targets - The company revised its 2025 EPS planning assumption to $2.55 - $2.70 on a GAAP basis and is planning for 2025 Adjusted EPS of approximately $4.55 [10] - The company is targeting annual free cash flow of approximately $600 million [10, 19] - The company is committed to achieving 35% adjusted gross margin and a solid investment grade balance sheet [7] Segment Performance - Tools & Outdoor revenue was flat, with a 12.0% adjusted segment margin, up year-over-year [12] - Engineered Fastening revenue increased by 3%, with a 12.8% adjusted segment margin, down year-over-year but up 200 basis points sequentially versus 2Q'25 [12, 14] - Tools & Outdoor organic revenue decreased by 2%, while Engineered Fastening organic revenue increased by 5% [12] Cost Savings and Liquidity - The company achieved $120 million in pre-tax run-rate cost savings in the third quarter, with $1.9 billion program-to-date [8, 17] - The company has $0.3 billion in cash on hand and $2.1 billion in additional commercial paper capacity, resulting in $2.4 billion in total additional liquidity [30]

Core Viewpoint - Stanley Black & Decker has lowered its annual profit forecast due to increased production costs, resulting in a nearly 4% decline in its shares during premarket trading [1] Company Summary - The company has adjusted its profit outlook for the year, indicating challenges in managing production expenses [1] - The reduction in profit forecast has led to a negative market reaction, as evidenced by the drop in share price [1] Industry Summary - The news highlights the impact of rising production costs on companies within the power tools sector, suggesting potential challenges for other players in the industry [1]