January 22, 2026 08:40 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America Driver Out Tesla's removal of the safety driver in its Austin fleet marks a pivotal moment in proving out its vision-only approach to autonomy. We look to more data points on the pace at which they expand the unsupervised Robotaxi fleet, launch in new metro areas, and improve safety metrics. What happened? Tesla confirmed that the company has rolled out Robotaxi drives in Austin with no safety monitor in the car. Ashok Elluswamy (VP of AI and Autopilot ...

January 21, 2026 06:55 AM GMT Tesla Inc | North America 4Q25 Preview: Bring on the Bots We see a particularly wide dispersion in financial KPIs into the 4Q print and for 2026. We believe the stock reaction will depend on the incrementality of updates around scaling robotaxi/Cybercab, launching Unsupervised FSD, Optimus Gen 3, and AI5 on the earnings call. Important financial KPIs and where we stand vs. consensus ( Exhibit 1 ). Outside of the numbers, here's what we're tracking through earnings. | M January ...

Group 1 - RTX Corporation experienced significant stock volatility following comments from President Trump regarding defense spending and corporate buybacks, with a notable drop when he proposed banning buybacks and a subsequent spike when he announced plans to increase the defense budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion [11] - The average purchase price for RTX was $80.70, and it is currently trading at $192.47 in premarket [11] - President Trump aims to fund the increased defense spending through tariffs, which generated $195 billion in fiscal year 2025, with estimates for fiscal year 2026 ranging from $191 billion to $247 billion [11] Group 2 - The article highlights a surge in productivity in Q3 at 4.9%, with labor costs declining by 1.9%, indicating positive trends for the U.S. economy and stock market [11] - Job openings reported in the JOLTS data were at 7.146 million, down from 7.449 million previously, suggesting a potential slowdown in job growth [11] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index came in at 54.4, above the consensus of 52.2, indicating strong non-manufacturing activity [11]

Summary of NVIDIA CES Keynote - Takeaways for US Autos Industry Overview - The focus of the conference was on **Physical AI**, particularly in the context of **Autonomous Vehicles (AV)** and **Humanoids** as the future of AI technology [2][7]. Key Company Insights NVIDIA - **Alpamayo**: A vision language action (VLA) model aimed at addressing the "long tail" of AV edge cases, supported by **AlpaSim** (open-source AV simulation) and **Physical AI Open Datasets** (1,700+ hours of driving data) [2]. - **Isaac GR00T N1.6**: A reasoning VLA model specifically designed for humanoid robotics [2]. Tesla (TSLA) - Despite increased competition in AVs and humanoids, Tesla is viewed as being **years ahead** due to its vertical integration, data, scale, and cost advantages [7]. - The introduction of NVIDIA's technology may help other OEMs accelerate their autonomy programs, but the time required to fully develop and integrate AV technology is expected to be **years, not months** [8]. Rivian (RIVN) - Rivian's own AI and autonomy strategy, including a custom silicon chip, may face competitive pressure from NVIDIA if Rivian decides to sell its technology externally [8]. Lucid Motors (LCID) - Lucid has partnered with NVIDIA to develop hands-off driving technology, with a focus on capital efficiency [8]. General Motors (GM) - GM is leveraging its existing collaboration with NVIDIA to enhance its AV speed-to-market, utilizing digital-twin workflows and NVIDIA DRIVE AGX for advanced ADAS [8]. Ford (F) - Ford is seen as having potential opportunities to advance its L2+ offerings in a capital-light manner, aligning with its recent strategic pivot towards capital discipline [8]. Mobileye (MBLY) - Mobileye's market share may be at risk due to NVIDIA's strong position in high-performance SoCs and compute platforms, which could increase pricing pressure [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with traditional OEMs needing to adapt quickly to maintain relevance as L2+/L3 autonomy becomes a consumer expectation [3]. - The integration of advanced autonomy technologies is expected to compress development cycles and reduce upfront capital expenditures for OEMs [8]. Financial Projections - General Motors has a DCF-derived price target of **$90**, implying a **7.5x** multiple on 2026 EPS of **$12.25** [11]. - Tesla's price target is set at **$425**, with various components contributing to this valuation, including core auto business and network services [12]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include execution challenges in EV/AV strategies, regulatory hurdles, and increased competition from both legacy OEMs and new entrants in the market [14][15]. - The need for greater financial transparency and strategic partnerships is emphasized as critical for navigating the evolving automotive landscape [14]. Conclusion - The advancements in AI and autonomy showcased by NVIDIA at CES highlight significant opportunities and challenges for automotive OEMs. Companies like Tesla, GM, and Lucid are positioned to leverage these technologies, while others may face increased competitive pressures. The market dynamics are shifting rapidly, necessitating strategic adaptations from all players involved.

Core Insights - The U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market saw record deliveries in the third quarter of 2025, with over 1.3 million EVs sold in 2024, marking a 7.3% year-over-year growth [3][10] - General Motors (GM) and Ford are scaling back their EV efforts due to a significant pullback in demand and the expiration of the federal EV tax credit [10][11][12] Sales Performance - The Chevrolet Equinox EV was the top-selling EV in the U.S. for 2025, with 57,195 units sold, reflecting a 100.7% increase year-over-year [9] - Other notable models include the Mustang Mach-E with 51,620 units sold (-0.2%), Hyundai IONIQ 5 with 47,039 units (+6.0%), and Honda Prologue with 39,194 units (+18.7%) [9] - Ford's F-150 Lightning saw a decline in sales, with 27,307 units sold (-18.5%), while the Chevy Blazer EV and Cadillac Lyriq also experienced sales drops [9][10] Market Dynamics - The top-selling EV models list for 2025 includes multiple models from GM, which ranked first, sixth, and eighth, while Ford ranked second and fifth [5][6] - Tesla's Model Y and Model 3 were the best-selling EVs in 2024, with reported sales of 372,613 and 189,903 units, respectively [6][7] - The future of the EV market may shift significantly in 2026, with potential dominance from pure-play EV companies like Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid, as well as foreign automakers [10][13] Strategic Shifts - GM announced the end of production for the BrightDrop fleet EV van and incurred a $1.6 billion charge related to its EV initiatives [11] - Ford plans to focus on traditional vehicles and hybrids, discontinuing the F-150 Lightning EV and outlining a total charge of $19.5 billion related to its EV strategy [12]

Summary of Tesla Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,585,713 million as of December 31, 2025 - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: $425.00 Key Financial Metrics - **4Q25 Deliveries**: 418,000 vehicles, a decrease of 16% year-over-year, slightly missing sell-side consensus of 422,900 vehicles by 1% but beating Morgan Stanley estimates of 402,000 vehicles [1][8] - **Energy Storage System (ESS) Deployments**: 14.2 GWh, exceeding expectations of 13.4 GWh [1][8] - **2026 Estimates**: - Vehicle unit sales: 1.597 million, a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year - ESS deployment: 64 GWh, an increase of 37% [1] Core Business Insights - **Robotaxi Business**: The primary catalyst for Tesla's growth in 1H26, with advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology being crucial for future vehicle demand [1] - **Volume Growth Expectations**: Anticipated double-digit growth in vehicle volume starting from 2027 [1] Price Target Methodology - **Bear Case**: $145 per share, with components including: - $30/share for automotive (6 million units by 2040 at a 6.5% EBIT margin) - $50/share for Network Services (60% attach rate at $200/month ARPU) - $45/share for Tesla Mobility (2 million car fleet at ~40% EBITDA margin) - $20/share for Energy [3][25] - **Base Case**: $425 per share, with components including: - $55/share for core automotive (9 million units by 2040 at a 10.5% EBIT margin) - $145/share for Network Services (80% attach rate at $240/month ARPU) - $125/share for Tesla Mobility (5 million cars at ~$1.33/mile) - $40/share for Energy [19] - **Bull Case**: $860 per share, with optimistic projections for all segments [3][19] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - **2025 Revenue**: $93,941 million - **2026 Revenue**: $97,275 million - **2027 Revenue**: $118,124 million - **Auto Gross Margin**: Expected to be 16.3% in 2026 [27] Risks and Challenges - **Market Competition**: Increased competition from traditional OEMs, startups, and large tech firms in both automotive and robotics sectors [31][32] - **Execution Risks**: Associated with robotaxi, FSD, and humanoid projects [32] - **Regulatory Risks**: Potential regulatory challenges, particularly in China [32] Additional Insights - **Consensus Rating Distribution**: 42% Overweight, 38% Equal-weight, 21% Underweight [23] - **Global Revenue Exposure**: 20-30% from Europe and Mainland China, with minimal exposure to Latin America and MEA [28] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Tesla Inc. conference call, highlighting the company's performance, future expectations, and the associated risks in the current market landscape.

Summary of Tesla Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA) - **Industry**: Automotive and Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,618,293 million as of December 12, 2025 - **Current Stock Price**: $458.96 - **Price Target**: $425.00 Key Points Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry is experiencing an AI-driven inflection point, with Tesla expanding its lead in autonomous vehicle technology [1][5][15] - Tesla's robotaxi fleet is a significant focus, with plans to scale operations in Austin and San Francisco while prioritizing passenger safety [4][10] Robotaxi Development - Recent videos confirmed Tesla's robotaxi vehicles operating in Austin without a safety monitor, aligning with the company's goal to remove the monitor by year-end 2025 [3][8] - Three catalysts for scaling the robotaxi fleet include: 1. Opening the robotaxi service to the public without a safety monitor [3] 2. Improvement in safety metrics as miles driven increase without the monitor [3] 3. Start of production for the Cybercab, targeted for April 2026 [3] Fleet Expansion Projections - Tesla aims to increase its robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles on the road in 2026, up from an estimated 50-150 currently [4] - By the end of 2035, Tesla expects to have 1 million robotaxis operating across multiple cities [4] Cost Advantages - Tesla has a clear cost advantage due to vertical integration across its technology stack, including vehicle design, custom silicon, and software [10] - The Cybercab is designed specifically for robotaxi operations, which will further reduce costs and accelerate adoption [10][11] Safety and Regulatory Challenges - The ability to successfully remove the safety monitor while improving safety metrics is crucial for validating Tesla's robotaxi strategy [10] - Regulatory hurdles may limit the scaling of operations, particularly concerning the camera-only approach [10] Financial Projections - Expected EPS for fiscal years: - 2025: $1.66 - 2026: $1.98 - 2027: $2.69 [6] - Cost per mile for Tesla's robotaxi model projected to be $0.59 by 2028 [11] Risks and Considerations - Upside risks include increased FSD attach rates, successful robotaxi rollout, and new model introductions [21] - Downside risks involve execution challenges, regulatory issues, and competition from legacy OEMs and tech companies [21] Conclusion - Tesla is positioned to lead the autonomous vehicle market with its innovative robotaxi strategy and significant cost advantages, although it must navigate safety and regulatory challenges to achieve its ambitious growth targets [1][10][15]

Core Insights - General Motors Co has emerged as an unexpected momentum story for 2025, with a year-to-date stock increase of approximately 45%, closing at $80.80, the highest level since before the 2009 bankruptcy [1] Group 1: Autonomy and Leadership Changes - The recent stock jump of 4.7% highlights GM's renewed focus on autonomy, led by Sterling Anderson, a notable figure from Tesla and Aurora Innovation, who is now directing GM's self-driving strategy [2] - Anderson's arrival signals a shift for GM from a cleanup phase to a more aggressive stance, directly challenging Tesla's dominance in the autonomy space [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Goldman Sachs has upgraded GM's price target to $93 and maintained a Buy rating, citing stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and a successful strategic reset [4] - The overall market consensus has shifted towards a Strong Buy for GM, contrasting with the previous dominance of Silicon Valley's EV companies [4] Group 3: Financial Stability and Competitive Positioning - GM maintains a steady dividend of $0.15 per share, providing a risk-reward balance that Tesla does not offer [5] - The company is crafting a counter-narrative to Tesla's long-standing market influence, focusing on restructuring, rising profitability, and a renewed commitment to autonomy under Anderson's leadership [6]

Core Viewpoint - BYD Company reported strong sales and record exports in November, indicating competitive strength against Tesla in various global markets [1][5]. Sales Performance - BYD sold 480,186 new energy vehicles (NEV) in November, marking a 5.3% decrease year-over-year but an 8.7% increase from October [2]. - Commercial NEVs saw an 88% year-over-year increase, totaling 5,625 units sold in November [2]. - Battery-powered electric vehicle sales rose 19.9% year-over-year to 237,540 units, up 6.7% from October [3]. - Passenger plug-in hybrid vehicle sales were 237,381 units, down 22.4% year-over-year but up 10.8% from October [3]. - Total NEV sales from January to November reached 4,182,038 units, an 11.3% increase year-over-year [3]. Export Growth - BYD's exports in November reached a record 131,935 units, a significant 325.9% increase year-over-year and a 57.3% rise from October [5]. - From January to November, BYD sold 912,911 vehicles overseas, reflecting a 153.6% year-over-year growth [5]. Competitive Landscape - Tesla's wholesale sales in November were 78,856 units, up 10% year-over-year and 41% from October [6]. - Tesla's total wholesale sales from January to November stood at 754,561 units, down 8.3% year-over-year, trailing behind BYD's overall NEV sales [8]. - Tesla has experienced year-over-year declines in wholesale sales in China for eight of the eleven months in 2025 [9]. Market Dynamics - BYD's aggressive expansion in Europe and Asia could disrupt Tesla's market share, particularly with lower-priced models [10]. - Consumer preferences in Europe are shifting towards vehicles made in China, potentially benefiting BYD [10]. - Tesla faces challenges from brand perception issues and increased competition from lower-cost alternatives like BYD [11]. Stock Performance - BYD shares are trading at $12.69, up 12.03% year-to-date in 2025 [12]. - Tesla shares are trading at $426.79, with a year-to-date increase of 5.68% [12].

Core Insights - The COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil, have highlighted the "social and environmental risks" associated with the minerals necessary for the green transition, indicating a desire for electrification without the extensive mining typically required [1][2] - The political implications of mineral supply chains for electric vehicles (EVs), solar farms, and grid batteries have become more pronounced, signaling a shift in investor sentiment [2][6] Industry Implications - Indigenous groups from Argentina have raised concerns about the environmental impact of lithium extraction, which is critical for EV batteries, stressing the need for sustainable practices [3][4] - U.S.-listed mining companies such as Albemarle Corp, Lithium Americas Corp, and Sociedad Quimica y Minr de Chile SA are now viewed as part of a supply chain that requires reform, rather than mere expansion, due to the COP30 discussions [4][5] - The demand for minerals like lithium, nickel, and graphite is essential for companies like Tesla, while others in the solar sector, such as First Solar Inc and Enphase Energy Inc, depend on metals like copper and silver [5] Financial Considerations - If the discussions at COP30 lead to new policies or procurement guidelines, the cost structures and permitting processes for clean-tech minerals may undergo significant changes, impacting the financial outlook for companies reliant on these resources [6] - The political sensitivity surrounding lithium producers has increased, placing them on par with oil producers in terms of scrutiny, which could affect stock valuations and growth assumptions tied to mineral availability [7]