Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian government has implemented anti-dumping duties on various Chinese steel products to protect domestic manufacturers from unfair pricing practices [1][2]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Duties - The duties will be effective for five years, with tariffs ranging from US$ 323 to US$ 670 per ton for cold rolled coil (CRC) steel, and from US$ 285 to US$ 710 per ton for hot-dip galvanized coil (HDG) steel [2]. - These steel products are crucial for manufacturing vehicle body and chassis parts, as well as other consumer goods [2]. Group 2: Import Data - In the previous year, Brazil imported 202,000 tons of CRC from China at an average price of US$ 560 per ton, and 1.42 million tons of HDG at US$ 681 per ton [3]. - The total imports of rolled steel products into Brazil increased by over 20% to 5.7 million tons in 2025, with 64% of these imports sourced from China [3].

Core Insights - Tenaris S.A. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, showing resilience in sales despite challenging market conditions [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, net sales reached $2,995 million, a 1% increase from Q3 2025 and a 5% increase from Q4 2024 [3]. - Operating income for Q4 2025 was $554 million, down 7% from Q3 2025 and down 1% from Q4 2024 [3]. - Net income for Q4 2025 was $461 million, a 2% increase from Q3 2025 but an 11% decrease from Q4 2024 [3]. - The company reported EBITDA of $717 million in Q4 2025, reflecting a 5% decrease from Q3 2025 and a 1% decrease from Q4 2024 [3]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $665 million, with a net cash position of $3.3 billion as of December 31, 2025 [4][19]. - Cash generated from operating activities in Q4 2025 was $787 million, significantly higher than $318 million in Q3 2025 [18]. Market Background and Outlook - The oil and gas sector is experiencing volatility, but companies are optimistic about long-term demand and investment plans [5]. - Drilling activity in the U.S. and Canada is expected to remain stable, while no major changes are anticipated in other regions [5][6]. Dividend Proposal - The board of directors plans to propose a dividend of $0.89 per share, totaling approximately $900 million, subject to shareholder approval [7]. Segment Performance - In the Tubes segment, net sales for Q4 2025 were $2,839 million, a 1% decrease from Q3 2025 but a 5% increase year-on-year [8]. - Seamless pipe sales volume in Q4 2025 was 776 thousand metric tons, a 1% decrease from Q3 2025 but a 4% increase from Q4 2024 [8]. - The Others segment saw a 51% increase in net sales sequentially, driven by resumed fracking and coiled tubing services in Argentina [12]. Annual Results - For the full year 2025, net sales totaled $11,981 million, a 4% decrease from 2024 [20]. - Operating income for 2025 was $2,283 million, down 6% from 2024 [20]. - The Tubes segment reported net sales of $11,400 million for 2025, a 4% decrease from 2024 [22].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ternium's EBITDA margin reached 10% in 2025, supported by a cost reduction program that generated $250 million in savings compared to 2024 [4] - Net income for the fourth quarter totaled $171 million, impacted by one-time charges related to an impairment in one of its mining operations [13][14] - Cash generated by operations reached $2.3 billion in 2025, allowing the company to finance capital expenditures [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel segment experienced a decline in shipments due to weaker volumes in the US and Brazil, but higher volumes in Mexico partially offset this decline [15] - Mining cash operating income increased sequentially, driven by stronger shipments and higher realized iron ore prices [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Apparent consumption of steel in Mexico decreased by 10% in 2025, with flat products consumption down 14% compared to 2024 [23] - The Mexican government raised import tariffs on steel from 25% to 35%, aiming to protect local producers [5][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs while expanding its footprint in Mexico with new facilities [8][11] - The company is optimistic about profitability improvements in 2026, driven by cost reductions and favorable trade policies [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of ongoing trade negotiations in North America and expressed confidence in reaching a mutually beneficial agreement [10][11] - The company is cautious about the timing of the USMCA renewal, projecting it may not significantly impact 2026 but could be more relevant in 2027 [24][25] Other Important Information - Ternium secured a $1.25 billion loan through a green financing facility to support its new projects, which received several awards for sustainability [8][9] - The company proposed an annual dividend of $2.7 per ADS for fiscal year 2025, maintaining the same level as 2024, reflecting confidence in future prospects [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for the Mexican market and demand recovery - Management noted that demand in Mexico was significantly low in 2025, with expectations for a 4% market growth in 2026, driven by local steel mills gaining market share [23][24] Question: Impact of anti-dumping measures in Brazil - Management indicated that the impact of anti-dumping measures would be gradual, with expectations for a moderate increase in domestic prices [22][26] Question: Ternium's plan if USMCA is not renewed - Management stated that they operated in 2025 without a renewed USMCA and would continue to adapt to the environment, focusing on market share gains [30][34] Question: Volume expectations for 2026 - Management expects volume increases in Mexico, with a recovery in Argentina anticipated in the second half of the year, while Brazil is expected to maintain healthy volume levels [35][36] Question: Margin potential without USMCA changes - Management expressed that they expect to enhance margins in 2026, aiming for a return to the 15%-20% range, but acknowledged that this would depend on market conditions [40][44] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management confirmed that both increasing dividends and exploring growth opportunities in key markets are priorities, with no immediate plans for share buybacks [87]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ternium reported a net income of $171 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDA slightly declining sequentially, in line with expectations [13][14] - The EBITDA margin reached 10% for the year, supported by a cost reduction program that generated $250 million in savings [4][18] - Cash generated by operations in 2025 was strong at $2.3 billion, allowing the company to finance capital expenditures [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel segment experienced a decline in shipments due to weaker volumes in the U.S. and Brazil, although higher volumes were noted in Mexico [15][16] - Mining cash operating income increased sequentially, driven by stronger shipments and higher realized iron ore prices [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Apparent consumption of steel in Mexico decreased by 10% in 2025, with flat products consumption down 14% compared to 2024 [23] - The U.S. implemented significant trade measures against unfair practices from China, impacting the global steel market [5][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs while expanding its footprint in Mexico with new facilities [8][11] - The company is optimistic about profitability improvements in 2026, driven by cost reductions and favorable trade policies [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by a fatal accident at Ternium Mexico and emphasized the importance of safety [4] - The outlook for the Mexican market is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a 4% growth in 2026 despite current low demand levels [23][24] Other Important Information - Ternium secured a $1.25 billion loan through a green financing facility to support its new projects, which received several awards [8][9] - The company proposed an annual dividend of $2.7 per ADS for fiscal year 2025, maintaining the same level as 2024 [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for the Mexican market and recovery path - Management noted that demand in Mexico was significantly low in 2025, with expectations of a 4% market growth in 2026, aiming to gain market share against imports [23][24] Question: Impact of anti-dumping measures in Brazil - Management indicated that the impact of anti-dumping measures would be gradual, with expectations of a moderate increase in domestic prices [22][25] Question: Ternium's plan if USMCA is not renewed - Management stated that they operated in 2025 under the assumption of no renewal and would continue to adapt to the environment [30][34] Question: Volume expectations for 2026 - Management expects volumes to increase in Mexico, while the southern region may see recovery in the second half of the year [35][36] Question: Margin potential without USMCA changes - Management expressed that margins could improve, but the full impact of USMCA negotiations would likely be seen in 2027 [40][79] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management confirmed that both increasing dividends and exploring growth opportunities in key markets are priorities [86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ternium reported a net income of $171 million for Q4 2025, with a slight sequential decline in adjusted EBITDA, which remained stable [13][14] - The EBITDA margin reached 10% for the year, with a cash generation from operations of $2.3 billion, allowing the company to finance capital expenditures [4][18] - The company achieved $250 million in savings through cost reduction and efficiency programs in 2025 compared to 2024 [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel segment saw a decline in shipments primarily due to weaker volumes in the U.S. and Brazil, although higher volumes were recorded in Mexico [14][15] - Mining cash operating income increased sequentially due to stronger shipments and higher realized iron ore prices, partially offset by higher unit costs [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, apparent consumption of steel decreased by 10% in 2025, with flat products consumption down 14% compared to 2024 [23] - The U.S. implemented significant trade measures against unfair practices from China, impacting the global steel market [5][9] - Brazil's recent anti-dumping measures and increased import taxes on steel products represent a significant shift in the market environment [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focusing on enhancing regional integration and has expanded its footprint in Mexico, investing in technology to offer high-value products [6][11] - The company has started production in new facilities, including a cold rolling mill and a galvanized line, aimed at producing high-quality automotive steel [7][8] - Ternium aims to improve profitability in 2026, driven by cost reductions and operational efficiency [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about Ternium's outlook for the coming years, expecting profitability to improve in 2026 despite ongoing trade issues [10][11] - The company is actively participating in discussions regarding trade frameworks to ensure fair competition and support local producers [5][6] Other Important Information - Ternium's board proposed an annual dividend of $2.7 per ADS for fiscal year 2025, maintaining the same level as 2024, reflecting confidence in the company's prospects [18] - The company secured a $1.25 billion loan through a green financing facility to support its projects, receiving multiple awards for this initiative [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for the Mexican market and demand recovery - Management noted that demand in Mexico was significantly low in 2025, with expectations of a 4% market growth in 2026, driven by local steel mills gaining market share against imports [21][23][24] Question: Impact of anti-dumping measures in Brazil - Management indicated that the impact on pricing dynamics would be gradual, with expectations for a moderate increase in domestic prices [22][26] Question: Ternium's plan if USMCA is not renewed - Management stated that they operated in 2025 under the assumption of no renewal and would continue to adapt to the environment, focusing on market share growth [31][34] Question: Expectations for Ternium's volumes in 2026 - Management expects volumes to increase in Mexico, while the southern region may see recovery in the second half of the year [36][37] Question: Margin potential without USMCA changes - Management believes there is potential for margins to improve, aiming for a return to the 15%-20% range, but acknowledges that this may take time [41][46][86] Question: Capital allocation priorities - Management emphasized that both increasing dividends and pursuing growth opportunities in key markets are priorities [88][89]

Forward-Looking Statements and Non-IFRS Alternative Performance Measures This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements and information relating to Ternium S.A. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "Ternium") that are based on the current beliefs of its management as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Ternium. Such statements reflect the current views of Ternium with respect to future events and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many f ...

Core Insights - Ternium S.A. announced a significant development regarding its subsidiary Ternium Investments S. [1] Group 1 - The announcement was made on November 5, 2025, indicating a strategic move by the company [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Ternium reported an increase in EBITDA driven by a decreasing cost per ton, with cash generation exceeding half a billion dollars during the quarter [5][13] - The net result for Q3 2025 was a loss of $270 million, primarily due to a $405 million non-cash loss related to the write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025 due to seasonal slowdowns, but adjusted EBITDA margin should remain consistent with the previous quarter [13][40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel segment shipments increased, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, although lower volumes were noted in other markets [16][17] - The mining segment experienced a decline in net sales due to lower iron ore shipments and increased costs per ton in one of the Mexican operations [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, steel demand has been significantly impacted by U.S. trade policies, with apparent consumption expected to decrease by 10% in 2025 [8][46] - Brazil's steel environment remains healthy with a projected 5% growth in apparent steel demand in 2025, despite challenges from unfairly traded imports [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focused on strengthening its market position through ongoing optimization and cost reductions, particularly in response to the evolving global trade environment [11][12] - The company supports policies that promote regional integration and fair competition within the USMCA framework [6][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the uncertainty in the business environment due to ongoing changes in U.S. tariff frameworks and emphasized the importance of the USMCA [5][6] - There is optimism regarding potential structural reforms in Argentina that could enhance competitiveness and growth opportunities in the steel industry [10][46] Other Important Information - Ternium's board declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, maintaining the same payment level as the previous year [5][20] - The company received the Steel Award for Excellence in Sustainability for its renewable energy initiative in Argentina [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What strategic opportunities arise from the recent elections in Argentina? - Management indicated that the elections may lead to structural reforms that could enhance competitiveness in the industry, but current ownership structure simplification is not a priority [22][23] Question: What is Ternium's plan if the U.S. maintains melt and pour conditions for steel products? - The company plans to continue with its investment strategy, focusing on increasing production capacity to meet regional demands [27][28] Question: What is the cash cost outlook for Q4? - Management expects further improvements in cash costs across operations, with a slight decrease in prices anticipated in Mexico and Argentina [35][40] Question: What is the outlook for demand in Mexico for 2026? - Demand is expected to recover by 4% in 2026, driven by infrastructure growth and stabilization in trade relations with the U.S. [46][48] Question: What is the status of the Pesquería project? - The new galvanized line is set to start production in December, with the overall project on track and within budget [68] Question: What are the expectations for EBITDA per ton in 2026? - Management aims for an EBITDA margin of around 10% entering 2026, with ongoing efforts to improve margins despite uncertainties in trade negotiations [74][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Ternium reported an increase in EBITDA driven by a decreasing cost per tonne, with cash generation exceeding half a billion dollars during the quarter [4][11] - The net result for Q3 2025 was a loss of $270 million, primarily due to a $405 million non-cash loss related to the write-down of deferred tax assets at Usiminas [11][12] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline slightly in Q4 2025 due to seasonal slowdown, but the adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to remain consistent with the previous quarter [11][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Steel segment shipments increased, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, although lower volumes were noted in other markets [13][14] - The mining segment experienced a decline in net sales due to lower iron ore shipments and increased costs in one of the Mexican operations [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Mexico, apparent steel consumption is projected to decrease by 10% in 2025, with expectations of a 4% recovery in 2026 driven by infrastructure growth [48] - Brazil's steel environment remains healthy with a 5% growth expectation in apparent steel demand for 2025, despite challenges from unfairly traded imports [8][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Ternium is focused on strengthening its market position through ongoing optimization and cost reductions, particularly in response to the evolving global trade environment [9][10] - The company supports policies that promote regional integration and fair competition within the USMCA framework [5][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the uncertainty in the business environment due to ongoing changes in the U.S. tariff framework, but expressed optimism about structural reforms in Argentina following the recent elections [5][22] - The company anticipates a slight decline in prices in Mexico and Argentina for Q4 2025, but expects stability in North American prices [38][42] Other Important Information - Ternium's board declared an interim dividend of $0.90 per ADS, maintaining the same level as last year [4][17] - The company received the Steel Award for Excellence in Sustainability for its renewable energy initiative in Argentina [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Strategic opportunities post-Argentina elections - Management indicated that the elections would lead to structural reforms that could enhance competitiveness in Argentina, but no immediate changes to ownership structure are planned [21][23] Question: Ternium's plan if U.S. maintains melt and pour conditions - The company plans to continue with its investment strategy, anticipating that melt and pour conditions will remain relevant, especially in the automotive sector [27][29] Question: Cash cost outlook for Q4 - Management expects ongoing efficiencies in operations, with a slight decrease in cash costs anticipated in Mexico and Argentina [35][42] Question: Demand outlook for Mexico in 2026 - A recovery in demand is expected in 2026, driven by infrastructure growth and stabilization in trade between the U.S. and Mexico [48][50] Question: Update on the Pesquería project - The new galvanized line is set to start production in December, with the overall project on budget and timeline [72][74] Question: Expectations for EBITDA per ton in 2026 - Management aims for an EBITDA margin of around 10% entering 2026, with ongoing efforts to improve margins despite uncertainties in trade negotiations [84][85]

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Steel - **Region**: North America - **Current Market View**: Prices are expected to remain relatively muted over the next six months due to soft demand, despite an anticipated fall in imports [1][2] Key Points Demand Dynamics - **Soft Demand**: Steel demand has been subdued since April 2024, with expectations of a muted six months before any significant improvement [3][4] - **Bifurcated Market**: Industrial sectors like heavy equipment, energy, and infrastructure are performing relatively well, while consumer-oriented segments are sluggish [3][4] - **Strong Segments**: Oilfield and OCTG steel volumes are strong, and solar and wind markets are benefiting from residual IRA-driven spending, although long-term visibility is limited [3][4] - **Weak Segments**: Truck and trailer demand has collapsed post-COVID, with recovery not expected until 2029. Consumer goods like garden equipment remain pressured by high interest rates and reduced discretionary spending [3][4] Import and Tariff Impact - **Declining Imports**: Import flows are expected to decline sharply due to a 50% tariff, which eliminates nearly all profit margins for foreign suppliers [4][7] - **Economic Incentive**: An Asian producer selling at $500/t would incur $250/t in duties and $35/t in freight, leading to a landed cost of approximately $785/t, making domestic prices more attractive [4][7] - **Potential "Steel Island"**: A self-contained steel market could emerge if Mexico and Canada adopt similar tariffs without exceptions [4][7] Price Stability - **Current Price Levels**: Steel prices are expected to remain stable around $800/t, with transaction levels around $750/t [7][8] - **Limited Catalysts**: There are limited near-term catalysts to break current price levels, with healthy inventory levels and excess capacity limiting upside [7][8] - **Potential Upside**: Accelerated interest rate cuts or reduced trade escalation rhetoric with China could provide a bullish case [7][8] - **Downside Risks**: An unexpected relaxing of tariffs on Mexico and Canada could trigger downside risks, with base prices potentially around $600/t without the current tariffs [7][8] Company Insights - **Nucor**: Continues to hold its weekly listed HRC price stable at $875/t for eight consecutive weeks, focusing on vertical integration [8] - **Nippon's Strategy**: Ownership of U.S. Steel has led to a strategic shift towards integrated customer solutions rather than individual product sales [8] - **Cleveland-Cliffs**: Has been quicker to offer discounts to secure sales volumes and benefit from fixed-cost dilution [8] Additional Considerations - **Cautious Outlook**: The overall tone remains cautious with near-term stagnation expected until mid-2Q26 when inventories normalize and policy clarity improves [3][4] - **Bipartisan Support for Tariffs**: U.S. tariff policy on steel continues to receive bipartisan support, which is crucial for the industry's stability in the current demand environment [4][7]